關於 aggressive estimate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

《免於恐懼的自由祈禱會》
呂秉權先生的分享

#絕望中的希望 《免於恐懼的自由》祈禱會
呂秉權 兄弟分享--- #沸點即場筆錄

片段 ▶️ https://www.facebook.com/109180535767655/posts/2493494547336230?s=548400948&v=e&sfns=mo

主教、神父、各位兄弟姊妹，大家好！很感恩可以在這裏跟大家分享，大家還是平平安安。我想起一位從大陸偷偷地來香港返教會，「宗教自由行」的姊妹，她說，想不到竟然可以在街頭報佳音，如果在大陸做這事的話，一早就被拒捕了！原來，我們可以站在街上祈禱、唱聖詩，是這麼美好的事情！

今次逃犯條例的修訂，令政府有一個很大的讓步，我可以說，這是一個奇蹟、是一個神蹟！

為我們這群，一直研究中國大陸政治的朋友來說，看著所有原先的蛛絲馬跡，中央對港的方針，是沒有讓步這計劃的！我跟大家說，原本這樣的逃犯條例，是怎樣的一回事：北京和林鄭月娥，他們以為這條例必定順利通過！為什麼？

首先，立法會絕對有足夠的票數去支持、商界也在中央的操控下一一「跪低」，即使你不情願，你不願意收回你的司法覆核也好，你最好也要跪低。

第二，在民意而言，北京已經評估過香港狀況，就算最多反對聲音、最壞程度，北京原先的評估，反對者就是佔中的規模；而佔中的規模，特區政府和警方已綽綽有餘，足以瓦解這行動於無形。兼且，這幾年來，香港的警隊， 已經不再是同樣的警隊了！香港的警隊已經進化了很多。

在後勤，我們亦知道解放軍已預備好。上一次佔領行動的時候，解放軍駐港部隊的深圳後勤部隊已經演練了；他們以四人枱一個人的規模，預備進行必要的介入，但最終沒有用到，但是他們是有部署的。如果有1萬人的集會，四個人抬1人，換句話說，就是說有4萬兵力在後勤準備。今次，不要以為我們看不見明顯的徵兆；解放軍駐港部隊已經不經不覺地做了不少工作。大家可記得？山竹襲港時，市面和郊野公園有大片破壞，解放軍駐港部隊幾百人，居然越過了駐軍法，沒有通知特區政府的情況下，可以出兵幾百人，穿着制服，他們以清理郊區的名義，動員幾百人，沒有駐軍令、沒有適當程序，他們就派了幾百個解放軍來了。這一點，我自己認為是十分危險的訊號。

第三，除了因為林鄭信心爆棚外，還有中央的因素在內。如果我們只看表面的話，會以為（修例）只是林鄭個人決定。其實，逃犯條例的修訂，中央跟香港談了很多年了，他們問香港要人，要了很多年了！今次在這修訂逃犯條例的大背景下，中央政府希望「法律武器化」香港；簡單來說，就是用任何香港的程序和法律去實行國家安全，這至高無上的保障。中央想通過這條移交逃犯條例，其實是一條「萬能Key」，文匯大公的權威解讀，國內中港智囊研究多年中港移交條例，除了一般所說：大陸犯罪的人匿藏在香港、除了香港人在國內犯罪回到香港外...... 更重要的計劃，就是威脅「國家安全」的罪犯。

在文匯大公報，5月23日引用權威人士解讀：當遇到威脅國家安全的罪犯時，一般是由香港，按照香港法律程序去處理的。那換句話說，是有不一般的情況了？當不一般的情況出現了，是不是就是可以超越香港程序去處理？而在國內研究這問題的智囊，很清楚跟我們說，在中國法律上，是沒有「政治犯」的！我們從前說反革命罪犯、或現在煽動顛覆國家政權罪犯，他們並非「政治犯」，而只是三個字：刑事犯！當我們面對刑事犯的時候，是否不引渡呢？是不是用政治犯為保護罩，我們就不引渡危害國家安全的罪犯呢？國內的智囊說，國內的邏輯是相反的！正是這些人破壞國家安全，香港更不能夠成為國家安全的漏洞，更加要去移交（罪犯），這是最恐怖的。

為什麼我們覺得恐怖呢？因為我們怎樣去定義一個人危害國家安全呢？那標準是相當之闊！在內地，只要你所謂「得罪共產黨」，你做一些黨不喜歡你做的事；你批評中央、你去支援內地的宗教，也許你報導一些新聞，內地不喜歡的......很容易你就會被檢控。

以往很多人被「砌生豬肉」（誣告），用藏毒罪、用偷竊罪、用間諜罪...... 被指控，是很恐怖的情況！我們中國大陸所行的體制，是人民民主專政，簡單來說就是「專政」兩個字！

專政是什麼呢？專政就是說，當面對政府所認為的「敵人」時，就可以不需要依照法律辦事、可以越過法律。如果大家還記得，在內地發生過不少專政事件，劉霞為什麼會完全沒有在法律程序下，被剝奪人身自由、被軟禁這麼久？銅鑼灣書店的相關人士，為什麼可以在香港跟泰國等地被綁架；被綁了之後，自願被剝奪所有法律權利，不見家人，在電視機面前認罪......為什麼呢？因為當時中國政府正在實行專政。

國家主席劉少奇，用憲法的名義叫大家不可以這樣去迫死人， 到最後......他們將一個被鬥到遍體鱗傷，急需醫院治療的一個國家主席，丟在河南的一個密室，失救至死。專政還可以令十大元帥賀龍，他患有糖尿病和各種疾病；死的時候被人專政，把高質量的葡萄糖液，打進他的身體，葡萄糖液與糖尿病結合...... 令他的腎臟衰竭、身體衰竭而死。

當一個國家說自己依法治國，但隨時可以行專政的時候，香港的法律開了一扇門，與這種專政的做法接連、以國家安全名義...... 這是多麼恐怖的事呢？而這個程序去修例，就是原來的劇本！

原來的劇本亦包括，中央在年頭的時候，審視全國的形勢，去防止各種的失控，各種不穩定因素，各種的風險。國家開了全國最高省部級的領導幹部大會，有習近平在中央黨校開講，很出名的什麼灰犀牛、黑天鵝、六個穩定，就是從這會議中出來的。當時中共領導人，是很害怕一件事： 所謂的中國「逢九必亂」，逢年份有9，他們就容易有大亂，中共見證着：
1949年，國共的更替；59年，大饑荒；69年，中蘇珍寶島之戰，國家主席劉少奇被鬥死；79年，中越戰爭；89年，六四事件；99年，法輪功圍中南海；2009年，新疆七五騷亂。

2019年頭的時候，中共已經開了全國大會去防止有任何混亂的情況。他們做了很多措施，亦都分享了很多經驗怎去處理問題。當時在中央的劇本中，香港的局勢可以說：穩如泰山！沒有可能在逢九必亂的其中一亂，是沒有可能的。他們所擔心的是經濟、與及萬一出現的失業問題，中美貿易之戰，絕對不是香港的事情。

近年，中央領隊領導人對香港的研判，他們認為香港局勢是非常的大好！為什麼這樣說呢？因為全面管治權已逐步落實，立法會受到建制的加持，由於這些社運、甚至旺角騷亂的人，相繼被重判；各種不同政見的人被DQ，整個社會的公民意識越來越低；北京與林鄭政府是極有信心的，這條例，不可能不通過！習近平早年說怎樣處理群眾運動時，清楚地說到：他剛剛上台，要扭轉胡、溫時代的那種妥協作風。習近平說：不可以：小鬧小解決、大鬧大解決、不鬧不解決！他不能讓這情況持續下去！習近平任內對港的多番措施，沒有一件證明他是妥協的；除了梁振英的不連任，而當時，是因為他在建制及商界中拿不到票 。有數票的人說，取得601票已是十分困難了，不是群眾的力量造成。而今次面對6月9日103萬人大遊行，大家可以看到，林鄭與北京政府當時的不妥協，遊行完後，無論人數有多少，依然故我，條例繼續。

當我們常常會問：天主你在哪裏？天主，為什麼香港可以被人摧殘至此？不知怎樣來了一個逆轉 ！當我們很多時質疑青年是「廢青」，在612星期三，出現了一個大家都不想看見、但卻成了一個逆轉的場面！一班青年人，他們有些是寫了遺書的，決定自己去擋子彈的情況下，他們去衝擊立法會、衝擊警方防線！當然從法律來說，他們的做法是犯法的；但是從一個公義的角度，他們認為這事情不應該這樣繼續下去，所以，他們做了抗爭。而這種抗爭，竟令到已經升級變形的香港警隊，殺紅了眼，連內部評估，也認為當警方被衝擊後，出去對群眾的清場用槍、去射頭部、用各種武器去攻擊一些無辜的人；警隊的一些內部評估，也認為是過火了。是這情況令到整件事逆轉！整個國際的壓力，令到北京政府難以承受。

那原先他們的計劃是怎樣呢？在內地的電視，和平集會的鏡頭全部被刪去，被描繪成示威者衝擊警察、暴徒般襲擊，今次他們想說成香港暴徒襲擊政府，以拿取道德高地。殊不知，警方濫用武器、過度執法、逆轉了整個畫面！原本習近平的計劃：叫做「楓橋經驗」，那就是遇到群眾事件時，就地解決，矛盾不上交！煎你的皮、但內裡燒不焦；鬥你的表面，但內部不會出事......

但很可惜，今次特區政府不單止沒有「矛盾不上交」，不但上交中央、還上了國際層面；令中共面對非常大的壓力，因而出現了一個逆轉。

我認為，這是天主的眷顧、天主的神跡！

到最後，我想用一個眼神去完結我這個分享：我記得，在612過後，我跟朋友去了一所聖堂，在聖堂門口見到一對警察，虎視眈眈，還是非常強硬的態度，他們想去捉拿聖堂內的青年。我在聖堂內看見一位青年，穿著黑背心，眼神很惶恐。我問他，可要幫他買件衣服，讓他離開？他說：「不用了」，他在聖堂得到了保護，找到了他的家，真正的父親、母親。當我行出教堂外，警察的目光，好像張牙舞爪，想要抓一個孩子......

希望上主繼續眷顧我們，賜我們平安；希望傷者能得平安...... 主佑香港！

2019年6月19日晚上

▶️ 祈禱會直播 https://www.facebook.com/1764198537146061/posts/2394608974105011?s=548400948&sfns=mo

▶️再談逃犯條例修定研討會 https://www.facebook.com/hkjpcom/videos/2180158835373248?s=667412853

“Hope in despair”
sharing of Mr Lui Ping Kuen at the “freedom from fear” prayer meeting

Bishop, father, brothers and sisters:

I am so grateful to share with you all here and I am grateful that we are all safe. I think of a sister who sneaked in Hong Kong to attend church services, “Religious Individual Visit”. She was surprised that there was street caroling in Hong Kong because one will be arrested if one does this in the Mainland. It is so wonderful that we can pray and sing hymns on the street!

I can claim that it is a miracle that the government retreats on the extradition bill!

For people like us who have studied Chinese Politics for a long time, we found that the Central Government had no plan to retreat in their policy towards Hong Kong from the clues we observed. I told you what the extradition bill was about originally: Beijing and Carrie Lam thought that the bill must be passed smoothly! Why?

First of all, there were definitely enough votes in the Legislative Council to pass the bill, and the business sector also submitted under the control of the Central Government, whether you were willing or not, whether you wanted to withdraw the judicial review application or not, you’d better submit to it.

Secondly, the Central Government has assessed the views of people in Hong Kong and they thought that the worst case scenario would be similar to that of the scale of Umbrella Movement only. They believed that the HKSAR Government and the Police could handle that scale of protest easily. Moreover, Hong Kong Police Force is not the same as the one a few years ago and has improved a lot. We also knew that the People's Liberation Army was well prepared to support. The logistic unit of People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison in Shenzhen has drilled during the previous occupying movement. They prepared to intervene, on a scale of 4 soldiers to remove 1 protester, when necessary. Although it was not carried out eventually, they were prepared. If there is a rally of 10 thousands people, 4 soldiers removing 1 protester, that means there are 40 thousands soldiers preparing to support. We can see significant signs that People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison has done a lot when we are not aware of it. Do you still member, there was extensive damage in urban and rural areas during the strike of severe typhoon Mangkhut? A few hundred soldiers from the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison wearing their uniform, bypassing the Garrison Law and without informing the HKSAR Government, were mobilised in the name of clearing the rural areas. Ignoring the Garrison Law and proper procedure, they sent a few hundred soldiers. I think this is a very dangerous sign.

Thirdly, besides the overconfidence of Carrie Lam, the Central Government is also a key factor. On the surface, we would think this (amendment of the bill) is solely Carrie Lam’s own decision. In fact, the amendment of extradition bill has been discussed between the Central Government and the HKSAR Government for many years. They have been asking Hong Kong for people they wanted for many years! The Central Government wants to make law their weapon in Hong Kong, to put it simply, the Central Government wants to exercise national security by using any procedures and laws in Hong Kong, this is the ultimate protection. The Central Government wants to pass this extradition bill, which works for nearly anything. From the authoritative interpretation by the Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao, the think tank in Mainland which has been studying extradition law between Mainland and Hong Kong for many years, that it is because, besides the situations that the criminals from the Mainland hide in Hong Kong or Hong Kong people committed offences in the Mainland and hide in Hong Kong, more importantly the criminals that threaten “national security”.

On 23 May, Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao quoted interpretation from authority that it is normally handled by Hong Kong according to Hong Kong legal procedures when there are criminals that threaten national security. In other words, there are abnormal situations? Will it bypass the Hong Kong legal procedures to handle the case when abnormal situation occurs? Member of think tank in the Mainland who studies this issue told us clearly that, there is no “political offenders” under Chinese law. No matter the “counter-revolutionary” offenders in the past or the current “inciting subversion of state power” offenders, they are not “political offenders” but criminal offenders! Are we not to extradite a criminal offender? Are we not to extradite offenders threatening national security by using “political offender” as a protection shield? Member of think tank in the Mainland said, the logic in Mainland is the opposite! As these people cause damage to national security, Hong Kong should not be the loophole of national security and more justified to extradite (offenders). This is the most dangerous part.

Why do we think that this is dangerous? It is because it is very easy for one to be defined as threatening national security. In the Mainland, if you do anything that the Communist Party doesn’t want you to do and upset the Communist Party, such as criticising the Central Government, supporting the religions in Mainland, reporting some news they don’t like. You are easy to be prosecuted.

In the past, there were a lot of people being prosecuted with false accusations including possession of drugs, theft, espionage. It is very horrible! The system in Mainland China is called “People’s democratic dictatorship”, to put it simply, dictatorship! What is dictatorship? It means that the Government do not need to follow the law and can bypass the law when dealing with their “enemies”. There were many incidents occurred under dictatorship in the Mainland if you still remember. Why were Liu Xia put under house arrest, deprived of personal freedom, for such a long time without following any legal procedures? Why were the people related to Causeway Bay Books kidnapped in places like Hong Kong and Thailand, then voluntarily deprived all legal rights, not to meet their families, and pleaded guilty on television? Why? It is because the Chinese Government is practising dictatorship at that time.

President Liu Shaoqi asked people not to persecute and caused the death of others in the name of constitution, at the end… They left a president who was seriously hurt by the crowd and was required to be sent to hospital for treatment urgently, in a room in Henan secretly and died as he was not saved in time. Dictatorship also made one of the then 10 Marshals of the Communist Party, He Lung, who suffered from diabetes and other illnesses, dead after an injection of a large dose of glucose. The glucose and diabetes caused his death by kidney failure and multiple organ failure.

When a country claims that it exercises rule by law, but it can also exercise dictatorship at anytime, if the Hong Kong legal system will be connected to this dictatorship, in the name of national security… how horrible is this? And this is the original script, which the law would be amended according to this procedure! The original script also included that, the Central Government has assessed the situation of the whole country to prevent any out-of-control situation, to prevent any uncertainties and risks in the beginning of this year. A countrywide meeting for officials of provincial level was held and Xi Jinping gave a speech at the Central Party School. Those famous saying included “grey rhinocero”, “black swan”, “six certainties” are originated from this meeting. The leaders of Communist Party were scared of one thing: the so-called “chaos in the years ending in 9” as the Communist Party witnessed chaos happened in those years ending in 9: 1949 - the Kuomintang was replaced by the Communist; 1959 - the Great Famine; 1969 - Sino-Russian Zhenbao dao War and President Liu Shaoqi was dead; 1979 - Sino-Vietnamese War; 1989 - Tiananmen Square Protests; 1999 - Falun Gong practitioners surrounded the Zhongnanhai (Central Government compound in Beijing); 2009 - 5th July Incident in Xinjiang.

In the beginning of 2019, countrywide meeting was held by the Communist Party to prevent any chaotic situation. They have done a lot and shared experience on handling problems. On the script of the Central Government at that time, the situation in Hong Kong was extremely stable. This was impossible for Hong Kong to become one of the chaos in the “chaos in the years ending in 9”. This was impossible. They were worried about the economics and the possible unemployment problem, US-China Trade War, definitely not Hong Kong issue.

The leaders of Central Government assessed that the circumstance in Hong Kong was very favourable in recent years. Why did they think so? It is because overall jurisdiction is gradually exercising in Hong Kong, the Legislative Council is supported by the pro-establishment camp; the social activists or even people involved in MongKok Riot were serving severe sentences; people of different political views were disqualified, civil awareness of the community became lower and lower; Beijing and Carrie Lam’s team were very confident in passing the bill. Talking about how to handle social movement, Xi Jinping stated that he would change the compromising style of Hu(Jintao)-Wen(Jiabao) Era when he came to power. Xi Jinping said no to “small conflict solves on a small scale, large conflict solves on a large scale, no conflict then nothing will be solved”! He could not allow this situation to continue. None of the policies towards Hong Kong showed any compromise during Xi Jinping’s rule, except no second term of office for CY Leung. It was because he could not get enough votes from the pro-establishment camp and the business sector at that time. One who counted the number of votes (before the election to estimate the number) said that it was difficult enough to get 601 votes. It was not a result of the power of the people. There were 1 million and 30 thousands people joining the demonstration on 9th June, we could see that Carrie Lam and Beijing Government did not compromise. No matter how many people joined the demonstration, they continued the procedures to pass the bill after the demonstration.

When we keep asking: “Where are you God?” “God, why are Hong Kong people tortured like this?” Here comes a reverse! When we question the youngsters as “useless”, on Wednesday 12th June, a situation that we all didn’t want to see occurred, but it made a reverse! A group of youngsters, some of them have written their testaments and decided to block the bullets, charged against Legislative Council and the Police cordon lines! Of course, their acts were illegal from the legal point of view; however, from the point of justice, they didn’t think that this issue should continue in this way. Therefore, they protested. This kind of protest unexpectedly triggered the uncontrolled attack by the upgraded and distorted Hong Kong Police. Even the internal assessment of the Police Force considered that the Police who used guns, shot in the head and used different weapons to attack innocent people, to clear the scene after being clashed, went too far. This is what made the issue reversed! The international pressure made it unbearable for Beijing Government.

Then what was their original plan? On the Mainland television, shots of peaceful assembly were all deleted and would be described as the protesters crashing the Police and attacking like mob. They wanted to claim that Hong Kong mob attacked the Government to gain moral high ground. However, excessive use of force by the Police reversed the whole situation. The original plan of Xi Jinping was called "Fengqiao Experience” which solves the social events on site and not to escalate it; attacks the surface but not to affect the core part. Unfortunately, the HKSAR Government could not solve the problem on site and escalated to the Central Government, and even reached an international level. It created a very big pressure for the Communist Party and made a reverse.

I think this is mercy from God, a miracle from God!

Lastly, I would like to conclude my sharing by the expression shown in one’s eyes. I remember I went to a church with friends after the 12th June incident and saw a pair of policeman at the entrance of the church, looking aggressive and wanted to catch the youngsters in the church. I saw a youngster in church, wearing a black vest, looked terrified in his eyes. I asked him whether I should help him to get clothes so that he could leave. He answered no. He found protection and home in the church, found his real father and mother. When I left the church, from the look of the policemen, it seemed to me that they wanted to catch a child…

May God continues to bless us with peace and may the wounded be given peace. God bless Hong Kong!

Evening of the 19th of June

#沸點直擊

相較於第一集「怪獸與它們的產地」(The Beasts and Where to Find Them)，
第二集「怪獸與葛林戴華德的罪行」(Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald)明顯陰暗許多，
對故事的舖陳佈局也佔了比較長的篇幅，
但為了我的強尼戴普，
一定要去看的呀！
（片中的強哥故意戴上異色瞳鏡片，製造自己陰邪的氛圍，真的奏效！)
👀: pupil (n.) 瞳孔
來看看字幕重點提醒吧！
——————————————-
📽 俐媽英文教室—「怪獸與葛林戴華德的罪行」(Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald)：
🧙🏻‍♂️ custody (n.) 羈押(be in custody 羈押中)
🧙🏻‍♂️ persuasive (a.) 有說服力的
🧙🏻‍♂️ underestimate (v.) 低估(estimate v. 估計)
🧙🏻‍♂️ wand (n.) 魔杖
🧙🏻‍♂️ ministry (n.) 部門(minister n. 部長)
🧙🏻‍♂️ field trip (n.) 田野調查
🧙🏻‍♂️ compromise (v.) 妥協
🧙🏻‍♂️ circus (n.) 馬戲團🎪
🧙🏻‍♂️ annihilate (v.) 殲滅
🧙🏻‍♂️ merciless (a.) 不仁慈的；冷血的(mercy n. 仁慈)
🧙🏻‍♂️ acquaintance (n.) 熟識者
🧙🏻‍♂️ ointment (n.) 藥膏
🧙🏻‍♂️ oblivious (a.) 健忘的(= forgetful)
🧙🏻‍♂️ outrageous (a.) 過份的
🧙🏻‍♂️ accusation (n.) 指控(accuse sb of sth 控告⋯人犯⋯罪)
🧙🏻‍♀️ aggressive (a.) 有攻擊性的；有野心的(-gress: go, walk)
🧙🏻‍♀️ enchanted (a.) 著迷的
🧙🏻‍♀️ coward (n.) 懦夫
🧙🏻‍♀️ oddity (n.) 怪異
🧙🏻‍♀️ curse (v.)(n.) 詛咒
🧙🏻‍♀️ destiny (n.) 命運(❗️EEC筆記)
🧙🏻‍♀️ distant relative (n.) 遠親
🧙🏻‍♀️ skull (n.) 頭骨💀
🧙🏻‍♀️ victory (n.) 勝利✌🏼
🧙🏻‍♀️ salamander (n.) 蠑螈(怎麼會有男生對心儀的女孩說：妳好美，有著像蠑螈一般的眼睛😂😂😂）
🧙🏻‍♀️ banish (v.) 流放
🧙🏻‍♀️ surveillance (n.) 監視(be under surveillance 被監控中)
🧙🏻‍♀️ suppression (n.) 打壓
🧙🏻‍♀️ rally (n.) 集會
🧙🏻‍♀️ parasite (n.) 寄生蟲(host n. 宿主)
🧙🏻‍♀️ tweeze (v.) 以鉗子拔除
🧙🏻‍♀️ hypocrite (n.) 偽君子(hypocritical a. 虛偽的)
🧙🏻‍♀️ alchemist (n.) 鍊金術士
🧙🏻‍♀️ cemetery (n.) 墓園(cf. ceremony n. 典禮)
🧙🏻‍♀️ tentacle (n.) 觸角
🧙🏻‍♀️ abduct (v.) 誘拐綁架(-duct: lead)
🧙🏻‍♀️ revenge (n.)(v.) 復仇(take revenge on N = revenge oneself on N 對⋯復仇)
🧙🏻‍♀️ raven (v.) 掠奪；(n.) 渡鴉
🧙🏻‍♀️ craving (n.) 渴求(crave for N 渴求⋯)
🧙🏻‍♀️ contain (v.) 控制
🧙🏻‍♀️ torture (v.)(n.) 折磨
🧙🏻‍♀️ mourn (v.) 哀悼
——————————————
劇中的大魔王似乎和鄧不利多🧙🏻‍♂️有血緣關係！？
這集埋下不少伏筆，俐媽等不及再看續集(sequel)啦！
敬請期待稍晚po出的「怪獸篇」😱😱
#俐媽英文教室 #怪獸與葛林戴華德的罪行 #怪獸與牠們的產地 #beasts #fantasticbeasts2 #johnnydepp #sequel #jkrowling