關於 back at the table 意思 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

【業力的黑洞】THE BLACK HOLE OF KARMA

（一）

「我不是叫你帶筆記本嗎？」

我看著男客人擺在桌上的那僅僅一張A4紙。

男客人不好意思地說：「我忘了。這是跟櫃台取的。」

「我千里迢迢來到這裡，因為你說你要改命。你就拿這樣一張借來的紙，來改命？一個半小時的看八字，夠你寫嗎？還是你不夠寫時，又要浪費我的時間去借紙？你的認真在哪裡？」

我雙眼直視著男客人的眼睛。

他連忙站起來，去借了多幾張A4紙。

•

（二）

「你怎麼帶那麼小的本子？夠寫嗎？」

我不可思議的看著，那如信用卡一般大的記事本。

男客人答：「可以啦！我只寫重點！」

「你這個是懶。我的每一句話都是重點。你的八字在我手上，你是怎樣的人，你不要以為我不知道。你不要跟我瞎掰，更不要有寫沒寫的，然後事後又發私訊重覆性的問回我一樣的問題，因為你沒有用心思寫下來。樓上有書店，要嘛你現在去買，我給你十五分鐘，要嘛我們今天就不看你的八字。你自己選。」

男客人十分鐘內，買了A4本子。

•

（三）

我為即將結婚的男客人看新家風水。

他來過我的風水講座數次，閱讀我臉書也有兩年多時間，應該很熟悉我的性格。事前，我提醒過他兩次要帶筆記本，兩次兩次他都跟我說謝謝提醒。

站在客廳看風水時，他抽出那張A4的屋子平面圖，壓在手掌心寫。

「我不是已經叫你帶筆記本嗎？」

他笑笑不語，沒有解釋，沒有道歉。

新家風水那麼重要，關係到你和你家人未來至少五年的興旺，你就在這一張軟綿綿的紙上寫兩個小時的筆記嗎？

以我對客人的要求，我本會叫他到外頭買筆記本，我們才繼續看風水。

但那天，現任屋主還住在那個單位，是特別約好時間讓我們進去看風水，對方也在等著我們完事後就要出門。

想想他過去兩年來常在我臉書貼文按讚，就給他一點面子，讓他在女朋友面前好下台，也算是報答他的支持。

於是，我看在眼裡，記在心裡。依我的經驗，沒把筆記寫好的，必會再來問我。

幾天後，他來訊詢問。當中有幾個問題，我當天已解說過。

我回他：「我雖不介意回答已經回答過的問題，但如果你那一天有帶筆記本，你必會抄下來。」

也就不用再問。

我也寫道：「我對你有點失望。」

他回我：「我明白也注意到你的失望。以後會更留意自己的念頭和舉止。」

「你應該跟我道歉。你忽視我的善意提醒本就不對。」

也猶如騙了我。如果你當初不想帶，直說，不要以假謝謝敷衍。

男客人過後道歉，也大方的同意我把這件事情寫出來，警惕大家。

如果你的未來註定會坎坷，無論是婚姻、事業、家庭或財富，你要比任何人都更注意你的一舉一動。

因為你細小的念頭，細微的決定，會一步一步引你掉入你命中註定的歹運。

你會漏掉寫下我千交代萬交代的事情。

你會寫錯、聽錯、記錯、做錯。

你身邊的人會影響你，告訴你不要聽我或任何能幫你改命的話，你如何如何讓她他不開心不舒服。

你會有錢也不要出錢，只是一直想博取我的同情，得到免費的幫助，然後稱說自己沒有錢。

你會任性，你會執著，你會覺得風水命理沒那麼厲害，你自己說了算，雖然你根本不怎麼樣。

因為你已變成一個弦线上的小木偶，被你那無情的業力操控著。

我的嚴厲，是要及時拉你一把，不要「青青菜菜」的過活，不要拖累你的家人和你一起遭業報。

不是每個人跌倒後，都能夠爬得起來。

誰不想做好人，讓每個人都喜歡自己？但自古，慈母多敗兒。

在現今社會裡，男人女人的自信，都是來自於事業，但每個人的幸福，都是源自於家庭。

所以千萬千萬不要自私。

...................................

（1）

“Didn't I tell you to bring a notebook?"

I looked at the lonely piece of A4 paper the male client placed on the table.

Slightly embarrassed, the male client said, "I forgot. This was obtained from the counter."

"I come all the way here because you tell me you want to change your destiny. You bring this kind of paper to change your life? My consultation is 1.5 hour and you think it's enough for you to write? Or when you run out of space, are you going to waste my time to go and borrow paper? Where is your seriousness?"

I looked at the male client straight in the eyes.

He hurriedly stood up and borrowed a few more pieces of A4 paper.

•

（2）

"Why did you bring such a small notebook? How is it enough for you to write?"

I looked at the credit-card-sized notebook incredulously.

The male client replied, "Can! I only write the important points!"

"This is your sloth. Everything I said is important. Your Bazi is in my hands. Don't think that I do not know what kind of person you are. Don't talk nonsense to me. Don't write selectively and then later send me PMs asking me the same questions that I have answered in this consultation, just because you didn't put in effort to jot it down. There is a bookshop upstairs. Either you go and buy now. I will give you 15 minutes. Or we will cancel today's consultation. You decide."

The male client returned with a brand new A4 notebook in ten minutes.

•

（3）

I was doing a Feng Shui audit for a male client who was getting married.

He came to my Feng Shui workshops a few times and have read my Facebook for over 2 years. Prior to the audit, I reminded him twice to bring a notebook and twice, he thanked me for my reminders.

While standing in the living room doing the Feng Shui audit, he drew out a A4-sized floorplan and wrote on it, with his palm as the backing.

"Didn't I already tell you to bring a notebook?"

He smiled back at me. No explanation. No apology.

The Feng Shui of a new home is so important because it determines the future of your family luck for at least the next 5 years. And you are going to write on this floppy piece of paper for the next 2 hours?

Given my expectations of clients, I would have told him to go and buy a notebook before I continued my audit.

But that day, the current owner was still living in the unit. It was by appointment that we were let in to get the Feng Shui audit done. The family was also waiting for us to finish things up, as they were going out.

I thought of the many times that he had Liked my FB posts these two years. So I decided to give him some face, and not make things difficult for him in front of his girlfriend. Also a very tiny way of me thanking him for his support all these while.

Hence, I put this incident in my heart. From my experience, I know that anyone who did not write the notes well will definitely come back to ask me again.

A few days later, he sent me messages, some of which were raising the same questions that I had explained on the day of the audit.

I told him, "While I do not mind answering the same questions again, if you had brought a notebook that day, you would have written it down."

You and I would not need to repeat ourselves again.

I also wrote, "I am slightly disappointed in you."

His reply, "Well noted on your disappointment. Will pay attention to own thoughts/actions for better changes."

"You should apologise to me. It is wrong of you to ignore my reminders to bring a notebook."

This is akin to lying to me. If you do not wish to bring, say it outright. Don't brush me off with perfunctory thanks.

He did apologised later and graciously gave me the permission to write about this, to remind my readers.

If your future is destined to be difficult, be it in your marriage, career, family or wealth, you must be extra observant of your every action and deed.

Because every little thought of yours, every seemingly minor decision you made, will lead you step-by-step to fall into the manhole of your pre-destined bad fortune.

You will miss out on what I repeatedly tell you to do.

You will write wrongly, hear wrongly, remember wrongly and do wrongly.

The people around you will influence you. They will tell you not to listen to me, or any well-meaning advice to transform your destiny. They will say that you doing so is making them unhappy and uncomfortable.

You will be unwillingly to fork out money even when you can afford it. You want to live off the compassion of mine and get free help, on the empty claim that you have no money.

You will be wilful. You will be stubborn. You will think that there is no big deal about Chinese Metaphysics and that what you say matters the most in your life. Despite not having any ability or past achievement to support that fat bold claim.

Because you have already become that little string puppet, being dangled around mercilessly by your negative karma.

My sternness is to pull you away from that manhole of mishaps. Do not live your life in a blur. Do not drag your family down with you to suffer at the hands of karma.

Not everyone can stand up right again, after a really bad fall.

Who doesn't wish to be that well-liked person? But since ancient times, an overly loving mother often leads to a useless son.

In modern society, the self confidence of every man and woman tend to come from his/her career. But happiness and bliss will always come from your family.

So never ever choose to be selfish.

分享馬世芳的送別Leonard Cohen

週六22：00重播。

Leonard Cohen辭世，恍惚了好幾天，不知如何是好。昨日下定決心做一期專題為他送行，於是搬出一疊唱片，打開電腦，找到了1972年以色列現場版的Chelsea Hotel #1（對，是#1，和後來行世的#2歌詞大有不同），遙寄曾和他有一夜情的，早死的女歌手Janis Joplin：

Ah but you got away, didn’t you baby
You just turn your back on the pain
You got away on your wildest dream
Racing the midnight train, I can see it
Racing the midnight train with no clothes on, baby...

忍不住還是痛哭了一場。

這期節目並不打算依時序立傳，也無法遍及他漫長生涯那眾多深邃、詩意的傑作。若要做尚稱周到的回顧專題，我想至少該放二十首歌才勉強說得過去，而我只有兩個小時，所以乾脆反其道而行，照著心情，挑幾首特別特別重要的歌，好好說一說故事，好好放幾個比較少見的版本。

這期節目，從他辭世之作You Want It Darker專輯的Leaving the Table開始：

I don't need a reason
For what I became
I've got these excuses
They're tired and lame
I don't need a pardon, no, no, no, no, no
There's no one left to blame
I'm leaving the table
I'm out of the game

繼以2012年的自敘之歌Going Home：

Going home
Without the burden
Going home
Behind the curtain
Going home
Without this costume
That I wore

然後是我的大愛歌，Tower of Song，先聽一點兒1988年版，再聽2008年倫敦實況，看他怎樣揭示人生奧祕的終極答案...

I was born like this, I had no choice
I was born with the gift of a golden voice
And twenty-seven angels from the Great Beyond
They tied me to this table right here
In the Tower of Song

接著說說他早年怎樣到了紐約，住進了切爾西旅館，遇見了Janis Joplin，後來寫了向她致意的這首Chelsea Hotel（#1 & #2）。先聽1974的專輯版，再聽1972的實況版：

Ah but you got away, didn't you babe,
you just turned your back on the crowd,
you got away, I never once heard you say,
I need you, I don't need you,
I need you, I don't need you
and all of that jiving around...

話說從頭，還是得提一提他從詩人變成歌手，以33歲「高齡」闖進流行樂壇的故事，他的貴人包括率先翻唱Suzanne的Judy Collins，和簽下他的傳奇A&R，哥倫比亞唱片公司的John Hammond。再來講一下1970年Isle of Wight音樂節的故事：Cohen在凌晨兩點上場，睡衣外面罩著一襲雨衣，對著足足六十萬剛聽完Jimi Hendrix的躁動不安的少年少女，悠悠唱起，把全唱送入不可思議的時空：

And you want to travel with him
And you want to travel blind
And you think maybe you'll trust him
For he's touched your perfect body with his mind

1960年代他住在希臘小島上，和他的繆思Marianne Ihlen過著浪子隱士的生活。這段時間寫的詩，很多靈感來自Marianne，比方Bird on the Wire就來自Marianne看到窗外停在高處電線上的一隻鳥。我們先聽1969的專輯版，再聽他講了一段法文歌詞的1972巴黎實況：

Oh like a bird on the wire
like a drunk in a midnight choir
I have tried in my way to be free

既然提到了Marianne，就得聽一聽摧肝裂膽的別離之歌So Long, Marianne：據說這是Cohen和她分手，經歷一場精神崩潰之後寫下的。同樣地，先聽1967年的專輯版，再給你一個摧枯拉朽的1993年奧斯陸演唱會實況，兩位女和聲唱著整段整段之前沒有的歌詞，懾人心魄：

Your eyes, I forget your eyes
Your body’s at home in every sea,
You gave your news to everyone
You said was a secret just for me...

是的，我也念了今年七月，Cohen寫給臨終病床上的Marianne的那封信，如今重讀，字字句句的意思又更不一樣了。「我們都老了，身體都崩壞了，我想很快我就會追上你，我就在你身後緊緊跟著：伸出你的手，我想你會觸到我的手......祝你有一段美好的旅程。獻上無盡的愛，我們在路那頭見。」

Famous Blue Raincoat，一封寫給遠方「我的兄弟，我的殺手」的昔日情敵的信，銷魂蝕骨。Cohen後來只說，歌裡那件雨衣其實是他自己穿的，很珍愛的一件Burberry藍雨衣，最後是被偷走了的。「你的仇敵正睡著，你的女人自由了」，記得夏宇引過這句詩。

Alexandra Leaving改寫自1911年希臘詩人Cavafy的詩，描述屋大維攻陷亞歷山大城前夕，安東尼夢見樂聲與無形體的行伍，並將決心一戰，且註定要和這座他即將失去的深愛的城訣別。Cohen把原詩的亞歷山大城Alexandria改成了女子的名字Alexandra，歌詞倏然有了更豐富深邃的解讀空間。這是和Cohen共事三十餘年的才女Sharon Robinson與他合寫合唱的經典。

It’s not a trick, your senses all deceiving
A fitful dream, the morning will exhaust –
Say goodbye to Alexandra leaving
Then say goodbye to Alexandra lost

最後壓軸，只能放Hallelujah了。我挑的是2009年Coachella音樂祭實況，當時75歲的Cohen面對底下幾萬個二十郎噹的小青年，再次發揮魔力，鎮住全場，所向披靡，成為他晚年演出的經典一役。我也一併放了這首歌1984原版：當年沒什麼人注意到它，儘管Cohen花了三年，寫了八十多段歌詞，屢經刪修才終於定稿，也算嘔心瀝血。幸有John Cale翻唱在前，Jeff Buckley翻唱在後，讓這首滿是舊約典故，關於慾望與毀滅、罪惡與救贖、神性與人性的歌，竟然成為西方流行樂史翻唱次數最多的作品之一。

謝謝你，Dear Leonard，這世界沒有了你，一下顯得更愚昧，更冰冷，更無禮了。我們仍得試著在這樣的世界活下去，一面聽著你留給我們的詩歌。謝謝。

播出曲目：

Leaving the Table (You Want It Darker, 2016)
Going Home (Old Ideas, 2012)
Tower of Song (I’m Your Man, 2008)
Tower of Song (live, London, 2008)(I’m Your Man, 1988)
Chelsea Hotel #2 (New Skin For The Old Ceremony, 1974)
Chelsea Hotel #1 (live, Tel Aviv, 1972)
Suzanne (Songs of Leonard Cohen, 1967)
Suzanne (live, The Isle of Wight, 1970)
Bird on a Wire (Songs From a Room, 1969)
Bird on a Wire (live, Paris, Live Songs, 1973)
So Long, Marianne (Songs of Leonard Cohen, 1967)
So Long, Marianne (Live, Oslo, 1993)
Famous Blue Raincoat (Songs of Love and Hate, 1971)
Alexandra Leaving (Ten New Songs, 2001)
Hallelujah (Various Positions, 1984)
Hallelujah (live) (live, Coachella, 2009)

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Bonus tracks（週六重播）:

The Gypsy’s Wife (live, Field Commander Cohen, 1979)
Hey, That's No Way to Say Goodbye (Songs of Leonard Cohen, 1967)