Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
同時也有12部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過9萬的網紅Shiney,也在其Youtube影片中提到,ซื้อเกมได้ที่ https://store.epicgames.com/legendauser/metro-last-light-redux Metro Last Light Redux พากย์ไทย Metro: Last Light takes place in 2034, o...
capital of russia 在 李卓人 Lee Cheuk Yan Facebook 的最讚貼文
#WeConnect #Belarus
🏳️What's happening in Belarus (08/13/2020, 23:00 HKT):
⠀
The protest movement can already definitely be called the "Awakening Revolution", because new social groups have joined and are joining the active protesters.
⠀
For the second day over, more than several thousand women have come out to peaceful protests. Women stand along the avenues, holding hands in white robes. So they protest against the killing of civilians. This action has already become mainstream and now every day women go out like this in Brest, Grodno, Lida, Pinsk and other cities. In general, this action is already taking place in 12 cities.
⠀
Starting from yesterday, large enterprises throughout Belarus declared a strike and stopped working. Employees of BelAZ, employees of Grodnozhilstroy, pharmaceutical plant Belmedpreparat and have stopped their work and are demanding fair elections and the release of prisoners.
⠀
Motorists joined Strike. In big cities and in the capital, they block roads, reducing the speed to 20-30 kilometers per hour, so as not to start up paddy wagons and armored personnel carriers.
⠀
Also in Belarus Christian churches have declared their support to the protesters. Catholics officially opened their churches to provide assistance and so that people could take refuge there from persecution, Orthodox priests and believers distribute water, food and medicaments to the protesters. Interestingly, the official Belarusian Orthodox Church congratulated Alexander Lukashenko on his victory. This is due to the fact that the BOC-MP is subordinate to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Belarusian society is already calling for the creation of an independent Orthodox Church, following the Ukrainian example.
⠀
Also a wave of dismissals from government posts swept across the country. On the Internet, in opposition telegram channels and chats, there are hundreds of videos showing how riot police, police or military officers burn their uniforms, tear their stripes and say that they are with the people. They are also dismissed from the state media and from the office of the President of Belarus.
During the nighttime protests, Belarusians use “be water” tactics. The movement is coordinated from the telegrams of the NEXTA channel and the chats of the 97% movement. Surprisingly, all coordination consists in updating relevant information and reporting and the appearance of law enforcement agencies in different places, as well as the need for assistance. Administrators of telegram chats "97%" report a large presence of Kremlin-bots provoking and misinforming participants in the Awakening Revolution. Also, a huge amount of lies and propaganda is being poured through the state television channels of Belarus and Russia. It is stated that the protesters are drug addicts and alcoholics, unemployed right-wing radicals. The opinions of so-called experts about the "Ukrainian trace" in the protest are regularly heard - allegedly Ukrainian nationalists are supervising Belarusian protesters. The same accusations are made towards the EU countries, especially Poland and Lithuania.
At the same time, police violence is only gaining proportions. The riot police fired at residential buildings and threw shells at the windows, the Ministry of Internal Affairs no longer hid the statement about its use of service weapons, the police brutally beat everyone they meet and spoil human property.
⠀
At the moment, the Ministry of Internal Affairs does not provide information on the number of detainees. The number of those detained, according to the human rights organization Viasna, has already exceeded five thousand. There are four confirmed deaths so far, unconfirmed four to eleven. The Supreme Court of Belarus has published a list of the names of 500 detainees.
The two youngest are only 18 years old, the oldest is 56 years old. At the same time, more than once in the opposition telegrams, the channels reported on the detention of minors. Most of the detainees were sentenced to 15 days of imprisonment, the longest "official term" - 25.
There are no detained citizens of Ukraine and Russian opposition journalists on the lists. It is impossible to estimate the real number of those detained, killed and wounded.
Text: Antony Tcherepenko (FHKC coordinator, Krakow)
All photos are from open sources.
capital of russia 在 抗爭少女日記 Facebook 的精選貼文
#WeConnect #Belarus
🏳️What's happening in Belarus (08/13/2020, 23:00 HKT):
⠀
The protest movement can already definitely be called the "Awakening Revolution", because new social groups have joined and are joining the active protesters.
⠀
For the second day over, more than several thousand women have come out to peaceful protests. Women stand along the avenues, holding hands in white robes. So they protest against the killing of civilians. This action has already become mainstream and now every day women go out like this in Brest, Grodno, Lida, Pinsk and other cities. In general, this action is already taking place in 12 cities.
⠀
Starting from yesterday, large enterprises throughout Belarus declared a strike and stopped working. Employees of BelAZ, employees of Grodnozhilstroy, pharmaceutical plant Belmedpreparat and have stopped their work and are demanding fair elections and the release of prisoners.
⠀
Motorists joined Strike. In big cities and in the capital, they block roads, reducing the speed to 20-30 kilometers per hour, so as not to start up paddy wagons and armored personnel carriers.
⠀
Also in Belarus Christian churches have declared their support to the protesters. Catholics officially opened their churches to provide assistance and so that people could take refuge there from persecution, Orthodox priests and believers distribute water, food and medicaments to the protesters. Interestingly, the official Belarusian Orthodox Church congratulated Alexander Lukashenko on his victory. This is due to the fact that the BOC-MP is subordinate to the Moscow Patriarchate. The Belarusian society is already calling for the creation of an independent Orthodox Church, following the Ukrainian example.
⠀
Also a wave of dismissals from government posts swept across the country. On the Internet, in opposition telegram channels and chats, there are hundreds of videos showing how riot police, police or military officers burn their uniforms, tear their stripes and say that they are with the people. They are also dismissed from the state media and from the office of the President of Belarus.
During the nighttime protests, Belarusians use “be water” tactics. The movement is coordinated from the telegrams of the NEXTA channel and the chats of the 97% movement. Surprisingly, all coordination consists in updating relevant information and reporting and the appearance of law enforcement agencies in different places, as well as the need for assistance. Administrators of telegram chats "97%" report a large presence of Kremlin-bots provoking and misinforming participants in the Awakening Revolution. Also, a huge amount of lies and propaganda is being poured through the state television channels of Belarus and Russia. It is stated that the protesters are drug addicts and alcoholics, unemployed right-wing radicals. The opinions of so-called experts about the "Ukrainian trace" in the protest are regularly heard - allegedly Ukrainian nationalists are supervising Belarusian protesters. The same accusations are made towards the EU countries, especially Poland and Lithuania.
At the same time, police violence is only gaining proportions. The riot police fired at residential buildings and threw shells at the windows, the Ministry of Internal Affairs no longer hid the statement about its use of service weapons, the police brutally beat everyone they meet and spoil human property.
⠀
At the moment, the Ministry of Internal Affairs does not provide information on the number of detainees. The number of those detained, according to the human rights organization Viasna, has already exceeded five thousand. There are four confirmed deaths so far, unconfirmed four to eleven. The Supreme Court of Belarus has published a list of the names of 500 detainees.
The two youngest are only 18 years old, the oldest is 56 years old. At the same time, more than once in the opposition telegrams, the channels reported on the detention of minors. Most of the detainees were sentenced to 15 days of imprisonment, the longest "official term" - 25.
There are no detained citizens of Ukraine and Russian opposition journalists on the lists. It is impossible to estimate the real number of those detained, killed and wounded.
Text: Antony Tcherepenko (FHKC coordinator, Krakow)
All photos are from open sources.
capital of russia 在 Shiney Youtube 的最讚貼文
ซื้อเกมได้ที่ https://store.epicgames.com/legendauser/metro-last-light-redux
Metro Last Light Redux พากย์ไทย
Metro: Last Light takes place in 2034, one year after the events of Metro 2033, following the ending of the original novel in which Artyom's missile strike against the Dark Ones — mysterious beings that seemingly threatened the survivors of a nuclear war living in the Moscow Metro — occurred. The Rangers, a neutral peacekeeping force that operates throughout the system, have since occupied the D6 military facility Artyom visited during the first game. This is a huge, and not fully explored pre-war bunker, and Artyom, now a Ranger himself, remains unsure whether killing the Dark Ones was the correct decision. Rumors of D6's discovery and its great riches have spread around the Metro; rival factions, such as the Soviet Red Line and Nazi Fourth Reich, hope to seize the bunker and its contents.
Metro Redux is a post-apocalyptic first-person shooter, and a two-part remake of Metro 2033 and Metro Last Light for next-generation consoles. It was developed by 4A Games and published by Deep Sliver. The enhanced versions of both games can be bought together as a bundle or separately.
Metro Redux features remakes of both games in an improved 4A Engine. While Metro Last Light Redux includes general improvements, Metro 2033 Redux has been completely remade in the Last Light engine and updated to include the same features as Metro Last Light. Metro Redux has been released for the next-generation consoles, the Xbox One and PS4, as well as PC.
This game is based on Dmitry Glukhovsky's book Metro 2033.
In 2013, nuclear war had devastated the Earth, wiping out billions of lives. Among the affected nations is Russia, including the now-desolate wasteland of Moscow. A handful of survivors manage to hide in the Metro system, salvaging spare parts and growing mushrooms for food. Animals such as rats, bears, and others are mutated into horrific monsters, while the air in many areas that humans breathe becomes heavily irradiated and impossible to survive in without a gas mask. While there is a constant state of war between the Communists and the Nazis both trying to promote their radical ideologies, bandits are stealing, killing and looting in the metro tunnels, even keeping hostages to gain bullets, which are used as currency.
Twenty years later, in 2033, the northern station of VDNKh, now called Exhibition, falls under attack by a group of mysterious creatures referred to as the Dark Ones. Artyom (Russian: Артём), a 24-year-old male survivor born before the bombs fell and the adopted son of the station commander, is persuaded to leave his home there and seek help from the rest of the Metro by Hunter, an elite soldier of the Spartan Order. Hunter gives Artyom his dog tags and tells him to present them to his superiors in Polis, the "capital" of the Metro, before disappearing while tracking the Dark Ones.
capital of russia 在 Shiney Youtube 的最佳貼文
ซื้อเกมได้ที่ https://store.epicgames.com/legendauser/metro-exodus
Metro Last Light Redux พากย์ไทย
Metro: Last Light takes place in 2034, one year after the events of Metro 2033, following the ending of the original novel in which Artyom's missile strike against the Dark Ones — mysterious beings that seemingly threatened the survivors of a nuclear war living in the Moscow Metro — occurred. The Rangers, a neutral peacekeeping force that operates throughout the system, have since occupied the D6 military facility Artyom visited during the first game. This is a huge, and not fully explored pre-war bunker, and Artyom, now a Ranger himself, remains unsure whether killing the Dark Ones was the correct decision. Rumors of D6's discovery and its great riches have spread around the Metro; rival factions, such as the Soviet Red Line and Nazi Fourth Reich, hope to seize the bunker and its contents.
Metro Redux is a post-apocalyptic first-person shooter, and a two-part remake of Metro 2033 and Metro Last Light for next-generation consoles. It was developed by 4A Games and published by Deep Sliver. The enhanced versions of both games can be bought together as a bundle or separately.
Metro Redux features remakes of both games in an improved 4A Engine. While Metro Last Light Redux includes general improvements, Metro 2033 Redux has been completely remade in the Last Light engine and updated to include the same features as Metro Last Light. Metro Redux has been released for the next-generation consoles, the Xbox One and PS4, as well as PC.
This game is based on Dmitry Glukhovsky's book Metro 2033.
In 2013, nuclear war had devastated the Earth, wiping out billions of lives. Among the affected nations is Russia, including the now-desolate wasteland of Moscow. A handful of survivors manage to hide in the Metro system, salvaging spare parts and growing mushrooms for food. Animals such as rats, bears, and others are mutated into horrific monsters, while the air in many areas that humans breathe becomes heavily irradiated and impossible to survive in without a gas mask. While there is a constant state of war between the Communists and the Nazis both trying to promote their radical ideologies, bandits are stealing, killing and looting in the metro tunnels, even keeping hostages to gain bullets, which are used as currency.
Twenty years later, in 2033, the northern station of VDNKh, now called Exhibition, falls under attack by a group of mysterious creatures referred to as the Dark Ones. Artyom (Russian: Артём), a 24-year-old male survivor born before the bombs fell and the adopted son of the station commander, is persuaded to leave his home there and seek help from the rest of the Metro by Hunter, an elite soldier of the Spartan Order. Hunter gives Artyom his dog tags and tells him to present them to his superiors in Polis, the "capital" of the Metro, before disappearing while tracking the Dark Ones.
capital of russia 在 Shiney Youtube 的最佳貼文
Metro Last Light Redux พากย์ไทย
Metro: Last Light takes place in 2034, one year after the events of Metro 2033, following the ending of the original novel in which Artyom's missile strike against the Dark Ones — mysterious beings that seemingly threatened the survivors of a nuclear war living in the Moscow Metro — occurred. The Rangers, a neutral peacekeeping force that operates throughout the system, have since occupied the D6 military facility Artyom visited during the first game. This is a huge, and not fully explored pre-war bunker, and Artyom, now a Ranger himself, remains unsure whether killing the Dark Ones was the correct decision. Rumors of D6's discovery and its great riches have spread around the Metro; rival factions, such as the Soviet Red Line and Nazi Fourth Reich, hope to seize the bunker and its contents.
Metro Redux is a post-apocalyptic first-person shooter, and a two-part remake of Metro 2033 and Metro Last Light for next-generation consoles. It was developed by 4A Games and published by Deep Sliver. The enhanced versions of both games can be bought together as a bundle or separately.
Metro Redux features remakes of both games in an improved 4A Engine. While Metro Last Light Redux includes general improvements, Metro 2033 Redux has been completely remade in the Last Light engine and updated to include the same features as Metro Last Light. Metro Redux has been released for the next-generation consoles, the Xbox One and PS4, as well as PC.
This game is based on Dmitry Glukhovsky's book Metro 2033.
In 2013, nuclear war had devastated the Earth, wiping out billions of lives. Among the affected nations is Russia, including the now-desolate wasteland of Moscow. A handful of survivors manage to hide in the Metro system, salvaging spare parts and growing mushrooms for food. Animals such as rats, bears, and others are mutated into horrific monsters, while the air in many areas that humans breathe becomes heavily irradiated and impossible to survive in without a gas mask. While there is a constant state of war between the Communists and the Nazis both trying to promote their radical ideologies, bandits are stealing, killing and looting in the metro tunnels, even keeping hostages to gain bullets, which are used as currency.
Twenty years later, in 2033, the northern station of VDNKh, now called Exhibition, falls under attack by a group of mysterious creatures referred to as the Dark Ones. Artyom (Russian: Артём), a 24-year-old male survivor born before the bombs fell and the adopted son of the station commander, is persuaded to leave his home there and seek help from the rest of the Metro by Hunter, an elite soldier of the Spartan Order. Hunter gives Artyom his dog tags and tells him to present them to his superiors in Polis, the "capital" of the Metro, before disappearing while tracking the Dark Ones.