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china unemployment rate 在 Apple Daily - English Edition Facebook 的最佳貼文

Apple Daily - English Edition By Apple Daily - English Edition

2021-01-29 04:00:09 有 4 人按讚
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#Opinion by Lui Yue 呂月｜"With 7 high-risk and 74 medium-risk epidemic areas confirmed, transportation blocked, prices skyrocketing, lots of small and medium enterprises going bankrupt, and soaring unemployment rate, even if news about its GDP being more than 100 trillion, the only economy with positive growth rate all over the world, its outdoing the US to be the first choice of foreign investors and its striding forward into the global economic center, the hard time the Chinese people have been having would definitely be an obstacle to Xi Jinping achieving the goals of double circulation in his 14th Five Year Plan in the year ahead."

Read more: https://bit.ly/3pqRpXv

"當全國目前確定7個高風險疫區，74個中風險疫區，交通運輸受阻、物價飛漲、中小企業倒閉、失業人口暴增，即便不斷放出GDP超過百萬億、全球唯一經濟正增長、超了美國拿下外資首選國、向世界經濟中心邁進等一個接一個的大衞星，辛丑年，中國人經歷的艱苦，將阻礙習近平十四五開局雙循環目標的實現。"
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china unemployment rate 在 粘拔的幸福碎碎念 Facebook 的精選貼文

粘拔的幸福碎碎念 By 粘拔的幸福碎碎念

2020-07-05 16:06:06 有 2,464 人按讚
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整理得很好

【**川普做了哪些40年來其他總統沒做的事?**】中共就是這幾任包括柯林頓，小布希，歐巴馬給搞到為所欲為，不管川普是否連任，這4年能夠把中共搞到崩潰邊緣，他真的不簡單!

**這裡整理幾點，他做了那些前任總統沒做的事?**

**1. 讓反共成為美國共識:**
* 正式公開承認過去幾十年對中政策的錯誤，並將中國與中共分開，認定中共所領導的中國為「有別於民主」的獨裁國家，視其為「新威權主義」

**2. 讓反共成為民主自由國家共識:**
* 呼籲並整合西方國家，在民主自由與極權暴政之間只能選邊站，價值觀勝過經濟誘因
* 在這次疫情，願意第一個出來講真話，讓我們不用活在指鹿為馬的世界，指出就是因為中共隱匿疫情，造成全球染疫超過千萬，死亡超過50萬人，經濟停擺，損失無可計算，四億多全職工作消失不復返，生活模式改變
* 甚至，他點出了 [#宗教自由](https://www.facebook.com/…/%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%E8%87%AA%E7%9…)，喚醒我們與中共的差別，西方民主國家不要忘記我們的價值觀，行善止惡的重要性

**3. 斷絕中共資金來源:**
* 進行貿易戰，提高關稅，迫使各國紛出走中國
* 提供優惠措施，輔導美企出走中國
* 嚴審中概股，逼迫中企會計公開透明，被迫在自由市場滅頂
* 限制經由香港的資金流動
* 對中國敏感科高科技出口禁令擴展到香港
* 下令美聯邦退休基金撤出中國，禁止用美國公務及老兵的退休基金去投資中國，使其製造武器來威脅美國人/士兵生命，過去幾任總統都是這樣做
* 美國八成假貨來自中港，不但危害智慧產權，消費者安全，更打擊市場公平性，川普對這些產品進行關稅制裁
* 進行《香港自治法》的簽署: 潛在制裁對象還首度包括國際金融機構，可導致中港銀行無法與美國銀行交易、不能使用美元結算，以打擊中港方資金鏈

**4. 斷絕中共技術來源，消滅「中國製造2025」:**
* 抵制中興、華為及與中共及解放軍有關係的中企
* 阻斷中國晶片來源，沒了心臟，所有設備根本出不了中國
* 對美國涉及千人計劃的學者、科學家開鍘，並對源頭中國駐美使館進行公開譴責
* 反制習近平「軍民融合戰略」竊取高科技，針對中國公民和學生進行簽證禁令，禁止具任何解放軍背景公民、學生與研究人員的再入境，撤銷簽證，甚至逮捕，一解放軍軍官以學術研究到美，在機場被捕，面臨最高10年刑期
* 正在進行「年度國防授權法案 (NDAA)」的簽署: 公布竊取美商業機密、威脅國家安全或經濟健康的個人或公司名單，[#向竊取技術的企業實施懲罰](https://www.facebook.com/…/%E5%90%91%E7%AB%8A%E5%8F%96%E6%8…)，包括凍結他們在美國的資產，及禁止美國公民與這些公司和個人進行交易的制裁，還包括加強美國供應鏈的措施，以及擴大與中國導彈防禦系統整合的限制

**5. 5G:**
* 正式宣布華為國安威脅，目前世界已有多國正式宣布不用華為進行5G基礎建設，這對全世界各國國家安全極為重要，菲律賓即因電網用華為設備，中共可遠端停電菲律賓48小時
* 美憂中國監視及竊盜資料，海纜准通台灣，不准通香港

**6. 印太戰略**
* 美國對中國擴張問題，不再只是內容空泛的抱怨，反而是堅強的執行意志。從新加坡李顯龍公開表示，希望華府不要逼新加坡與東協在美、中兩國選邊，很明顯就是針對美國印太戰略在發言
* 美國正在亞太地區部署前所未見的軍力，目前美軍部署在亞太地區的兵力為37.5萬人，占美軍總兵力的28%，其中包括60%的海軍艦艇、55%的陸軍部隊，以及2/3的陸戰隊兵力
* 美國前總統歐巴馬8年任期中，在南海只執行4次航行自由行動，然而川普上任迄今四年已執行22次，是歐巴馬的11倍

**7. 台灣**
* 稱蔡英文為台灣總統，國務卿蓬佩奧公開稱讚台灣在民主自由的貢獻，並支持台灣加入WHO等國際組織
* 台灣被確認是美國印太戰略核心夥伴，公開邀請參加八月南海軍演
* 2016年共和黨首度將《六項保證》納入黨綱
* 《台北法案》: 內容涵蓋台灣對外關係、美台經貿關係和台灣參與國際組織，增強美台雙邊經貿關係，並要求美政府促進台灣國際參與
* 《2018年亞洲再保證倡議法》其中第209條款「對台灣之承諾」重申支持美國與台灣在政治、經濟及安全的合作，規定「美國總統應依來自中國之威脅而定期對台軍售」
* 《台灣旅行法》: 促進兩國高層交流
* 重啟台美FTA談判
* 美方加強參與台灣國艦國造
* 軍售台灣: 18枚MK-48 AT重型魚雷，66架F-16戰機，派里級巡防艦、AAV7兩棲突擊車、人攜刺針飛彈250枚、拖式2B型飛彈769枚、標槍飛彈及迅安系統後續支援，HARM反輻射飛彈50枚、聯合距外武器（JSOW）空對地飛彈56枚、MK48魚雷46枚、標準二型（SM-2）飛彈16枚、MK54輕型魚雷168枚、4艘紀德級驅逐艦AN /SLQ-32（V）3電戰系統性能提升、SRP偵蒐雷達後續維持、MK41垂直發射系統，C-130 運輸機、F-5 戰鬥機、經國號戰鬥機，M1A2T戰車、M88A2裝甲救濟車、M1070A1 重裝備運輸車、M1000 重裝備運輸板車、FIM-92刺針便攜式防空飛彈、122把M2重機槍、216把M240通用機槍
* 進行《台灣防衛法》的簽署: 確保美軍有能力保護台灣安全，包括評估採取有限核武來嚇阻中國

**8. 香港**
* 制裁傷害香港自治的中港官員，包括: 中共政治局常委，負責港澳事務的韓正，加速中共高層內部的分裂
* 通過《香港人權與民主法》，撤銷香港特別待遇，包括禁止出口軍民兩用技術到香港
* 著手撤銷香港在引渡條例、出口管制、旅遊及獨立關稅區地位等領域所享有的特殊待遇
* 進行《香港自治法》的簽署: 對破壞香港自治的中港官員，凍結其在美資產，禁止入境美國；潛在制裁對象還首度包括國際金融機構，可導致中港銀行無法與美國銀行交易、不能使用美元結算，以打擊中港方資金鏈

**9. 新疆**
* 2019年10月，美國宣布將28個打壓新疆穆斯林的中企列入黑名單
* 2020年5月，美國宣布將中國公安部法醫研究所和8家中企列入經濟黑名單，並將33個協助中國政府監控維族，或與中國解放軍及大規模殺傷性武器有關聯的企業、機構、個人列入黑名單
* 通過《2020 年維吾爾人權政策法案》，呼籲禁止在中國境內外對這些族群的任意拘留、酷刑和騷擾，將制裁監禁超過百萬穆斯林的中國官員，制裁手段包括：凍結中國有關官員的在美財產、拒絶他們入境、拒發或取消簽證

**10. 媒體:**
* 今年2月，美國已將新華社、中國環球電視網（CGTN）、中國國際廣播電台（CRI）、《中國日報》發行公司，以及《人民日報》發行商美國海天發展公司列為外國使團
* 今年3月，美國要求削減60位中國籍記者
* 今年4月，白宮史無前例地批評美國之音為中國政府做宣傳。新任執行長在6月初通過國會核准，原本貝內特（Amanda Bennet）在內多名美國之音高管宣佈辭職
* 今年5月，美國限制中國籍記者簽證90天
* 今年5月，川普與推特等社群媒體槓上，怒斥打壓言論自由
* 今年7月，新增4家中共官媒為外國使團，包括: 中央電視台（CCTV）、中國新聞社（中新社）、《人民日報》和《環球時報》，從此需向美國國務院提供在美員工的名單及他們在美租賃或持有的房地產清單

**11. 疫情前，2019年底的美國經濟表現**
* 失業率維持在 3.5%，創 1969 年以來新低
* 執政 3 年美股飆逾 50%，高居歷屆總統第一
* 招聘人數的增加和工資的上漲推動了消費者支出，消費者支出占美國經濟的三分之二以上
* 美國是2019年G7唯一經濟增速將超過2%的國家
* 至2019年12月，美國經濟已連續第126個月持續增長，是有記錄以來最長的經濟增長期
* 美國股市的總市值攀升至創紀錄，1.5倍於其GDP
* 強勁的美國經濟在2019年繼續吸引來自世界各地的投資，使美元匯率升至歷史新高

**12. 國際組織**
* 川普大聲譴責目前「過於以中國為中心」的國際機構，包括WHO等
* 以行動退出世衛及拒絕提供資金後，世衛終於在6月30日承認中國並非第一個告知疫情，也就是中共違反世界衛生條例，並沒有在24小時內告知世衛，也代表全球都有法源依據跟中共求償
* 川普政府的國家安全小組甚至在考慮建立一個全新的國際衛生組織，以使美國能擁有更大影響
* WTO秘書長突然在今年5月辭職
* 川普表示: 聯合國是一個過時的組織。暗示應成立一個以民主自由國家，有共同價值觀為前提的組織，並開始邀請各國參加G11

What did Trump do that the former presidents did not do?

1. Making Anti-CCP a consensus in the United States:
* Formally and publicly acknowledged the mistakes of the China policy over the past few decades, separated China from CCP, and regarded China led by CCP as a dictatorship, different from democracy countries

2. Making Anti-CCP a consensus in the democratic and free nations:
* Appealed the democratic and free nations to stand together against CCP. Western countries is forced by CCP to choose side between persistence in freedom and acceptance of Beijing’s bully tactics, between value and economic incentives.
* In this epidemic, told us the fact that it’s because of the CCP’s deliberate concealment, more than 10 million people have been infected, more than 500,000 people have died, more than 400 million full-time jobs have disappeared, and our lifestyle is forced to be changed.
* Pointed out the importance of religious freedom and awakened us the differences between us and the CCP. CCP is a regime that oppresses her people’s religious freedom. Western democracies should not forget our insistence on freedom and beliefs

3. Cut off the sources of CCP funds:
* Carried out trade wars, raised tariffs, forced the companies and the investment to move out of China
* Provided preferential measures to assist US companies to move out of China
* Passed a bill that would prevent companies that refuse to open their books from listing on Wall Street. This move is aimed to "kick deceitful Chinese companies off US exchanges."
* Restrict the flow of funds through Hong Kong
* Directed federal pension fund to halt investments in Chinese stocks
* Imposed tariff sanctions on Chinese fake products
* Passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act to require the imposition of sanctions on foreign individuals and banks that participate in China’s oppression of Hong Kong

4. Cut off the sources of high-tech technology and knowledge acquired by CCP, and eliminate the possibility of Made in China 2025:
* Boycotted ZTE, Huawei, and the Chinese companies which are related to the CCP and the PLA
* Block CCP's access to acquire the high-end chips
* Arrested the scholars and scientists involved in the Thousand Talents Program, and publicly condemned the Chinese Embassy accused to lead this program in the US
* Ordered a ban on issuing visas to the Chinese people, students and researchers with PLA background, in order to prevent Xi Jinping's "military-civilian integration strategy" from stealing US high technology
* Signed "National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)": published a list of individuals or companies that steal US trade secrets, threaten national security or economic health; Penalize the companies that steal technology, including freezing their US assets; Prohibit U.S. citizens from trading with these companies and individuals...and so on.

5. 5G:
* Barred American firms from selling tech and supplies to huawei without first obtaining a license to do so and restricted companies like TSMC, a Taiwan-based firm, from exporting computer chipsets and other key components to Huawei.
* At the same time, warned the world that Huawei products will pose a risk to their national securities. Now, the tide is turning against Huawei, many countries have given up using Huawei equipments on their 5G instructure.
* According to CNN, because of using huawei equipments, the Philippines' power grid is under the full control of the Chinese government and could be shut off in time of conflict
* Denied Google to use a direct connection between the US and Hong Kong, due to a significant risk to security

6. Indo-Pacific Strategy
* The United States is no longer just complaining about the content of China's expansion, but rather a strong will to execute. Li Xianlong from Singapore stated publicly that he hopes that Washington will not force Singapore and ASEAN to choose sides in the United States and China.
* The United States is deploying unprecedented military power in the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, the US military has 375,000 troops deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 28% of the total US military strength, including 60% of naval ships, 55% of the army, and around 66% Marine Forces
* During the eight-year term of the former President Obama, only carried out four freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. However, Trump has carried out 22 times in the four years so far, which is 11 times that of Obama.

7. Taiwan
* Ignoring CCP’s intimidation, the secretary of State Pompeo publically and officially called Tsai Ing-wen the President of Taiwan. Also, praised Taiwan’s contribution to democracy and freedom, and supported Taiwan’s accession to WHO and other international organizations
* Publicly announced Taiwan is the core partner of the US-Indo-Pacific Plan, and openly invited Taiwan to participate in August Joint Navy Exercise in South China Sea
* Reiterated the "Six Guarantees" for Taiwan in 2016
* Signed "Taipei Act": It aims to increase the scope of US relations with Taiwan and encourage other nations and international organizations to strengthen their official and unofficial ties with this nation
* Signed "Asian Reassurance Initiative Act 2018" : It aims to support the close economic, political, and security relationship between Taiwan and the United States, to faithfully enforce all existing United States Government commitments to Taiwan, to counter efforts to change the status quo and to support peaceful resolution acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait, to conduct regular arms sales To Taiwan
* Signed "Taiwan Travel Law": It aims to encourage the travel of high level United States officials to Taiwan

8. Hong Kong
* In May 27, 2020, announced by the Secretary of State under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that Hong Kong no longer enjoys sufficient autonomy in order to justify special treatment by the US
* In May 28, 2020, announced that the United States would initiate the process of revoking Hong Kong’s favorable treatment under US law
* In July 1st, 2020, passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. It’s aimed to provide for mandatory sanctions against individuals, entities and financial institutions in response to China’s National Security Law for Hong Kong.

9. Xinjiang
* China has rounded up at least a million Uighurs in Xinjiang and imprisoned them in what it calls "re-education camps." An investigation found that most of the detainees were imprisoned due to their religious practices and culture, rather than extremist behavior.
* In October 2019, banned the import of products made by a firm in Xinjiang over its use of forced labor, also, blacklisted 28 Chinese entities for their role in the repression of Uighurs and issued visa restrictions on key Chinese officials
* In May 2020, added 33 companies to the United States’ economic blacklist of Chinese companies with ties to China’s military. The Commerce Department explained the banning of these companies, claiming that they are “complicit in human rights violations and abuses committed in China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, forced labor and high-technology surveillance against Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.”
* In signed into a law an act authorizing sanctions against Chinese officials over the mass detention and surveillance of Uighur Muslims in China's western Xinjiang province. The new legislation is the most significant action by any country to punish China over its treatment of ethnic minorities.

10. Media:
* In February, require five Chinese state-run media organizations to register their personnel and property with the U.S. government, granting them a designation akin to diplomatic entities.The five organizations affected are Xinhua News Agency; China Global Television Network, previously known as CCTV; China Radio International; the parent company of China Daily newspaper; and the parent company of The People’s Daily newspaper. All five meet the definitions of "foreign missions" under the Foreign Missions Act, according to the State Department.
* In March, ordered several Chinese media organizations to dismiss 60 U.S.-based Chinese nationals
* In May, reduced the length of work visas for journalists from China employed by non-U.S. media will be to a maximum of 90 days. Chinese reporters can apply for extensions, each one also limited to 90 days
* In the end of May, after Trump's complained reminding, Twitter has flagged a tweet written in March by a Chinese government spokesman that the US military brought the novel Coronavirus to China, as the social media platform ramps up fact-checking of posts.
* In July, announced that four more Chinese media organizations will be treated as foreign diplomatic missions, including: China Central Television (CCTV), China News Service (China News Service), People’s Daily, and Global Times.

11. Before the epidemic, the US economic performance at the end of 2019
* Unemployment rate remains at 3.5%, a new low since 1969
* During Trump’s three years in power, U.S. stocks soared by more than 50%, ranking first among successive presidents
* Increased recruitment and rising wages have driven consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, and its health has helped the economy maintain a stretch of growth that is now in its 11th year.
* In G7 in 2019, the United States is the only country with an economic growth rate of more than 2%
* As of December 2019, the U.S. economy has expanded for a record 126 straight months, the longest time period in the country’s history according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* The total market value of the US stock market climbed to a record, 1.5 times GDP
* In 2019, the strong American economy attracts investment from all over the world,bringing the dollar exchange rate to a record high

12. International organizations
* Loudly accused WHO of being very "China-centric" and withdrawn from the WHO by action and refusing to provide funds, the WHO finally admitted on June 30 that it was alerted by its own office in China, and not by China itself, to the first pneumonia cases in Wuhan.
* Trump is even considering to establish a new international health organization to allow the United States to have greater influence
* WTO Secretary-General suddenly resigned in May this year
* Trump even called for reform of outdated United Nations, implying that an new UN organization should based on the common value as democracy and freedom. Hence, he is starting to invite more democratic countries into G7

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關於歷史 我們身處在歷史洪流中 關於政治 我們無時無刻都被政治左右中
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china unemployment rate 在 元毓 Facebook 的精選貼文

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2020-03-20 17:56:47 有 189 人按讚
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【中國工廠託運FedEx大增；美國勞動市場轉悲觀；愚蠢美國政客拒絕撤銷貿易壁壘】

三個新聞擺在一起看：

一、Dow Jones新聞：
"China manufacturing is ramping up and many customers are calling on FedEx aircraft to bring in fresh inventory. The cancellation of European passenger flights to the US has cut out a lot of cargo capacity, helping FedEx planes to fill up. Also, the US Ground business is growing as large retailers are fielding an increase of online orders. But Susquehanna thinks this could be short lived"

這算是此波COVID-19前景擔憂下的好消息，整體狀況我認為依然符合我過去幾篇文章的觀點：

「...股市崩盤不見得是因為實體經濟生產力或總體契約制度有問題。金融市場崩盤也不見得會對後者造成傷害。」（道瓊指數單日暴跌9.99%有感-3/13）

「...a. 本次股市大跌我認為是「貨幣幻覺」的修正，而非實體經濟的制度安排或生產力遭受破壞。
是的，我依然認為COVID-19壓抑了經濟活動，但尚未造成實質性破壞。此病毒本身造成的死亡與傳染狀況，其實都還不如H1N1。許多撐不下去的邊際型企業，多半在疫情爆發之前的體質就已經不佳。這種風落損失的確會淘汰不少這類企業，可是以整體全球經濟活力角度觀之，恆久收入預期改變還不大。
某些不入流的財經專家以為美國面臨經濟危機、即將陷入長期經濟衰退等等看法，我均當做是「看走眼賠太多錢所以被嚇傻的言論」。
b. 然而，媒體販賣恐懼的過度炒作與政府的過度防疫舉措等等的經濟損失仍難以衡量。會不會因此造成恆久收入預期改變？我認為可能性不低。六月底再回頭檢視吧。
c. 印鈔救市，美國本質制度性問題不改，當然成效會有2008年以來的邊際效應遞減問題，同時也極有可能產生「經濟蜂窩性組織炎」的金包銀現象。是我等投資者不可不慎的思考點。
川普年底選情轉壞，亦或美元轉弱勢（見圖），都可能讓美國政府重新在中東或世界某處引發戰爭衝突。但對美國經濟本身而言依然是弊大於利。」（為何此次崩盤黃金也跟著跌?黃金不是避險工具嗎？--3/17）

二、美國勞動市場轉趨悲觀

WSJ: "Call It a Layoff, a Furlough or a Cut Shift: Americans are Losing Work"

1. 根據統計，美國娛樂產業已約有3600名從業人員被資遣；
2. 紐約著名的連鎖咖啡店「Union Square Cafe」關閉多家店面並裁員2000名員工，相當於該公司80%勞動力。
3. 西雅圖的連鎖冰淇淋店Molly Moon’s（共8家店面）預計裁員120～230名員工，並從上週起已經縮減20%工時。
4. Unite Here，一個擁有30萬名會員的工會聲稱，其會員將近80～90％將面臨裁員。
5. 肯德基州的失業補助申請過去維持每週約2000人水平，但這星期二單日即暴增至9000人！
6. 國際大型酒店集團Marriott International Inc宣布全球將有數萬名員工實施無薪假；.Norwegian Air Shuttle計畫裁員7300人；
7. 相反地，Amazon招募10萬名員工以應付暴增的網購訂單，並提高每小時工資$2美元。

三、美國愚蠢政客
WSJ :"Trump Spurns Business Plea to Ease Tariffs Amid Coronavirus"

本週三美國上百個商業組織聯名上書川普總統，要求在經濟與疫情雙重恐慌時期，美國聯邦政府可以高抬貴手「暫停對中國的貿易壁壘」，並指出美國人民一年為政客無聊的貿易戰額外付出至少$750億美元代價，如能暫時取消，則對人民經濟壓力將會是一大紓解。

毫無意外，美國政客一方面慷他人之慨地要從政府國庫或Fed印鈔票，提供幾千億甚至上兆美元紓困，但另一方面卻拒絕停止損人不利人民的貿易壁壘。

-------------------------------------

我的觀點：

1. 在過去許多討論「價格管制」、「基本工資」、「一例一休」或「反托拉斯法」等等制度經濟學範疇的文章我多次反覆強調：給予市場契約自由是維持經濟發展非常重要的侷限條件。

因此過去我即大力稱讚「無薪假」是天才發明，也力主面對不景氣應該給雇主下調薪資的自由，方可保障多數人不失業。

這是經濟學價格理論的基礎應用：若市場無從以價格調整應付新的侷限條件變化，則unemployment必然發生，於人是大規模失業、於物是滯銷、於資金則是爛頭寸。經濟學大師A. A. Alchian在1969年的論文「 Information Costs, Pricing, and Resource Unemployment」說得很清楚。

美國過度的勞工保護法規與工會介入，造成薪資結構彈性僵化與難以調整，使得每一次景氣波動都會出現大量不得不然的解雇潮。為何說「不得不然」？因為不如此，就是大量的企業倒閉潮，是一種更可怕的reources unemployment，從經濟學的角度看，對資源配置重新取得平衡更為不利，整體交易費用更高。

這裡插句題外話：近日崩盤的石油價格被許多經濟邏輯錯誤者誤傳「恐怕引發通貨緊縮」。此論點錯誤在於 -- 無論通貨膨脹或緊縮，都是「純粹的貨幣現象」。整體物價的漲跌不見得就是通膨或通縮，這是很多外行的rookie mistake。

我在「利率倒掛與repo rate」一文闡述的：「短期現金流動性乾涸會引起通縮造成美國國債利率上升」才是正確的貨幣理論邏輯。

而延續前述的「生產要素價格面臨不景氣時如能下調則有助於減緩『不清市』」邏輯，除了人力資源價格如有下調空間會勝於管制，其他重要生產要素價格也是如此。這是說，此段時間的石油價格因供應者競爭而大跌，雖然對局部產業（如石油開採）的收入有害，可能對少數產業大好（例如最近國際海運原油價格倍數上漲）；對整體因疫情而需求暫時被壓抑的其他產業實質是利多。這也是我認為此疫情如能在近一兩月內得到緩解，則實體經濟生產力並未受到病毒破壞，現在崩盤的虛擬金融市場不會是大問題。特別美國Fed快速且大量地提供流動性大有幫助。

2. 同樣的價格理論邏輯：「當整體交易費用上漲時，整體經濟活動數量會下降。」

我罵過多次，貿易戰的本質就是強迫人民用更高的代價完成本來的經濟活動。川普難得的放寬法規與減稅措施所帶來的經濟利好將被貿易戰吃掉，而且強度越大，豬羊變色機率越高。

一場並不比SARS強的COVID-19就把美國經濟打回原形，去年被財經魍魅們吹捧的低失業率與節節攀升的股市原來如我們所料地「化妝P圖成分極高」。也是我說過多次：「美國股票上漲主因是貨幣幻覺。」

3. 政客有裝忙、裝著在解決問題的需求，但經濟學實證不斷指出，政客的各種救治方案真正吵完架、能上路時，往往經濟問題早就被市場自己消化解決掉。而民主政治更會強化政客作秀的誘因，使得民主必然無法保障人民自由權與財產權。

我們看到的就是美國政府透過QE強行對人民與他國抽間接稅；啟動各種救市方案時卻暗中提供有關係者尋租的空間與利益；但同時又拒絕直接有利於人民的「降低貿易障礙」。這是說，美國人民不但明著被股市崩盤移轉財富，暗著也被政府剝削財富。

世界銀行前主席 Robert B. Zoellick的投書「川普的貿易壁壘造成美國重要醫療物資短缺（Trump’s Tariffs Leave the U.S. Short on Vital Medical Supplies）」可知，自從美國對中國實施關稅壁壘後，佔美國總進口醫療物資26%的中國製產品轉銷往他國，而同時美國進口商被迫重新從他國進口本來就有的商品，且還需要重走一次FDA認證（往往耗時兩年以上），造成如今面對疫情，許多重要醫療物資卻還躺在FDA審核隊伍之中而無法進口。

川普對全世界宣布的貿易戰，讓美國第二大醫療物資進口國--墨西哥--的廠商並無誘因提高產能來填補中國空缺。

近日美國聯邦政府雖然「暫時性」拿掉對中國醫療物資的進口限制，但在面對全世界疫情爆發，各國需求增加的前提下，中國廠商並沒有優先出口美國的誘因。更糟糕的是，也因此疫情，全世界20幾個國家已經禁止醫療產品出口，這無疑是對美國的短缺現象雪上加霜。

結論：中國復工狀況比我預期得好，現階段是喜事一件。美國的狀況讓我們知道，民主制度毫無優越性可言的同時，政客往往是災難的元兇或幫手，而無助於解決問題。

「美國是自由市場」純粹是可笑的神話，以我在美國法學院的訓練與投資考察經驗可知，事實上美國政府對市場各方面的管制可能比中國來得嚴重且僵化。這點從疫情引發的失業裁員潮和美國驚人的醫療費用，經濟感受佳者可窺知一二。

台灣？台灣世界難波萬，井蛙吱吱們開心就好。用不著浪費時間分析吧。

https://bit.ly/2U9j6qZ

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元毓說粉絲頁 美國法學碩士，智財權、競爭法與法律經濟分析專業。分享20年投資經驗所得之經濟學體悟。
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china unemployment rate 在 コバにゃんチャンネル Youtube 的最佳解答

コバにゃんチャンネル By コバにゃんチャンネル

2021-10-01 13:19:08 有 9 人看過 有 1 人喜歡
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コバにゃん☆です?
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長照是一個劇變的旋轉舞台 百年難得一見 沒有準備的人 被旋轉舞台甩出去 不是坐下就是躺下 而大象中醫是太極的推手 推動著旋轉舞台 讓 所有爬不起來的人 背後有一股推手力量 支撐再站起來
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長照是一個劇變的旋轉舞台 百年難得一見 沒有準備的人 被旋轉舞台甩出去 不是坐下就是躺下 而大象中醫是太極的推手 推動著旋轉舞台 讓 所有爬不起來的人 背後有一股推手力量 支撐再站起來
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Joblessness in China is rising, prompting fears of social unrest. But how high is the true unemployment rate? | Finance & economics.

#45. Urban unemployment rate down slightly in June (China.org.cn)

China's surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.0% in June, 0.7% lower than the same period last year, reports China.org.cn, ...

#46. Mass unemployment amid pandemic emerges as biggest ...

Although China's urban unemployment rate slipped to 5.7 per cent in June, 19.3 per cent of new graduates remained jobless, said in a report, ...

#47. Behind China's slowdown, signs of labor unrest - CBS News

... liberties Chinese officials are known to take with economic data. For instance, how do we know what the unemployment rate is in China?

#48. Notes from China's unemployed - Rest of World

The coronavirus has heightened unemployment in China. Here's where those without jobs go to cope.

#49. China is really worried about unemployment. Here's what it's ...

While China's official unemployment data has barely budged over the last several years, hovering between 4% and 5%, Beijing's messaging suggests ...

#50. Downturn in China leaves 26 million out of work - The Guardian

Around 20 million migrant workers have returned to the Chinese ... jobless in December and the first increase in the urban unemployment rate ...

#51. Opaque jobs picture poses hidden threat to China's 'new normal'

China's working-age population fell 3.71m last year, after falling 2.44m in 2013. But China's official unemployment statistics are the worst of ...

#52. Jobless & Picky - CKGSB

Data from the official China Household Finance Survey shows the unemployment rate of university educated youth to be 16.4%, while those with a ...

#53. Unemployment and labor force participation in China - Bank of ...

What about China? No one believes the official unemployment rate. LFP rates not even reported in official statistics. No information by demographics.

#54. US-China trade war could raise unemployment rates

As a frame of reference, a 0.1 percentage point change in the U.S. unemployment rate corresponds to a loss of 160,000 jobs. Based on historical ...

#55. China unemployment: Beijing's regulatory ... - The Star

15.3 per cent unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds in Chinese cities is three times as high as the overall national average of 5.1 ...

#56. China's unemployment rate drops to 5.06 pct in June - Forum ...

China's unemployment rate fell in June to the lowest level so far this year, official data show. Officials suggest economic stimulus ...

#57. China moves to solve graduate unemployment issue

BEIJING, Jan. 11 (Xinhua) -- Finding jobs for college graduates is a growing problem in China. It became an even harder task for the 6.1 million June ...

#58. Labour Force Survey Unemployment rate (LFS) 2022

China : Unemployment rate (LFS) 2014. May 2014 May 2014 July 2014 July 2014 2014 2014 September September 2014 2014 November November 4 4 5 5 Unemployment ...

#59. Explaining Unemployment among Uighurs in China - World ...

The high unemployment rate in China's Uighur community has been cited as a factor for the occurrence of a series of ethnic violence. Uighurs are.

#60. Why is China's unemployment rate so high this year? - Quora

China's (Mainland) unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2019 is 3.7%, slightly lower than its previous quarter 3.8% in 2018.

#61. China's surveyed urban unemployment rate drops in September

China's surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent in September, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, ...

#62. Youth unemployment in China: A crisis in the making

Even though there is no specific data on the jobless rate of Chinese people in the 16 to 24 age group, the China Household Finance Survey ...

#63. China Unemployment rate - Economy - IndexMundi

China Unemployment rate ... Unemployment rate: 3.64% (2019 est.) 3.84% (2018 est.) ... Definition: This entry contains the percent of the labor ...

#64. Unemployment in India, China to rise over next two years: ILO

The unemployment rate is estimated at 3.5 per cent for all three years. China, too, is going to witness an increase in the number of unemployed ...

#65. China's young jobseekers struggle despite economic recovery

Although Chinas urban unemployment rate slipped to 5.7 percent in June, 19.3 percent of new graduates remained jobless, UOB economists said ...

#66. China's unemployment and labour shortage - Vox EU

The unemployment rate, including rural migrants in major cities in the first quarter of 2014, is 8.7%, while that excluding them is 6.9%.

#67. China's unemployment rate may hit 10% - The Economist ...

China's unemployment rate may hit 10% · We estimate at least an additional 22m urban workers will lose their jobs in 2020, pushing up the ...

#68. China's Challenge: Employment and unemployment

Meng Jianjun. Today, I would like to talk about population and workforces in China. China has 711.5 million workforces, 11.5 of Japan's ...

#69. Understanding China's Unemployment - SOAS China Institute

China's registered unemployment rate remained mostly stable, and the largest increase from 4.0% (2002) to 4.3% (2003) occurred before the 2003 ...

#70. Unemployment - Social and economic change - National 4 ...

One explanation for China's low unemployment figures is that millions of workers, who have left their villages and towns to seek work in the cities, do not have ...

#71. Why China's High Unemployment Is Bad News For Luxury

For example, despite the country's economic and social challenges, the unemployment rate remained well-balanced, always staying around 4-5 ...

#72. China creates 11.86 million new jobs in 2020 - Global Times

The NBS also confirmed China's overall urban unemployment rate in 2020 registered at 5.6 percent, below the previous forecast of 6 percent. The ...

#73. In China, Job Cuts Mount in Sectors Hit by Tighter Regulations

Still, other figures signal stress emerging in some corners of the labor market. The unemployment rate for those ages 16 to 24 was 14.3% in ...

#74. National Bureau of Statistics report says ... - Times of India

BEIJING: Recent Reports released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's unemployment rate in urban areas has increased in ...

#75. The Impact of COVID-19 on Unemployment in China - The ...

There was an estimated increase in unemployment in China by three million people as the rate increased from 5.2% in December 2019 to 5.9% in ...

#76. City economists say China covering up mass unemployment ...

Forecasters often have to rely on their own Chinese indicators as Beijing is thought to massage its economic figures. China's official ...

#77. China's Unemployment Eases from Coronavirus Hit - Fitch ...

The surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to 5.4% in September from 6.2% in February 2020, yet unemployment of those aged 20-24 with college ...

#78. National Bureau of Statistics report says ... - ANI News

... showed that China's unemployment rate in urban areas has increased in July which is the peak job hunting season for college graduates.

#79. Long-run Trends in China's Urban Unemployment and Labor ...

Official unemployment rate in China is based on registered unemployment figures, but the official figures are likely underestimates of the ...

#80. China's unemployment rate may hit 10% this year - YouTube

#81. China's unemployment rate is much higher than the ... - Quartz

The SOE reform era: From 1995 to 2002, as the government spurred market reforms that led to mass layoffs of SOE workers, the rate climbed to an ...

#82. China's Urban Unemployment Rate Fell - Business Insider

A man looks at job information at an employment fair beside a street in Zhengzhou Thomson Reuters BEIJING (Reuters) - China's urban unemployment ...

#83. China's Ticking Time Bomb Of Mass Unemployment

At the end of April, a study by Zhongtai Securities, a brokerage firm based in Shandong province, estimated the real unemployment rate in China ...

#84. The Truth about Chinese Unemployment Rates by Zhang Jun

We found that, although China's urban unemployment rate was probably quite high in 2005, standing at 10.7%, it has most likely dropped over the ...

#85. China's unemployment rate drops, grads still face tough job ...

China's surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas stood at 5.7 percent in June, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of May, data from the ...

#86. Official unemployment rate understates China's true ... - BOFIT

China's labour market was severely disrupted by restrictions of movement and layoffs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

#87. China has an unemployment problem | MR Online

Strikingly few discussions of China's declining growth trajectory include mention of the country's unemployment rate. One possible reason is ...

#88. China's Official Unemployment Rate: An Unusual Outlier or a ...

No matter how the Chinese per capita GDP changes, the official unemployment rate in China always appears abnormally low and suspiciously stable, ...

#89. China's paradox: unemployment, and a lack of workers - The ...

In China, both a labour shortage and unemployment have emerged as problems in recent years. The number of university students scheduled to ...

#90. Is China's Official Unemployment Rate Totally Off? - The Atlantic

Official estimates suggest life in the city is pretty good for job seekers: government data puts the unemployment rate among metro areas at ...

#91. The truth about Chinese unemployment - Mint

Yet, the official urban unemployment rate, jointly issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Department of Labor and Social ...

#92. No One Trusts China's Unemployment Rate - NPR

Unemployed Chinese graduates attend a career fair. Mark Ralston/AFP/GettyImages. Ask an economist like Eswar Prasad, who used to work at the ...

#93. What is China's Unemployment Rate? - Marginal REVOLUTION

So how high is Chinese unemployment today? No one knows but it could well be closer to 10% than to 4.1%. Keep an eye on China and don't be ...

#94. China's Rising Unemployment Challenge - RAND Corporation

Notwithstanding the reported increase in total employment of 31 million between 1998 and 2002, registered urban unemployment increased to 4% ...

#95. How Many Unemployed By Coronavirus In China? We May ...

In the blink of eye, and no surprise to the market, the U.S. now has 3.3 million people out of work. It's all thanks to the rapidly ...

#96. The Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth in China

Development Indicator (WDI) for the period of 1991-2018 in China. In conducting the ... Chinese unemployment rate, economic progress and.

#97. China's unemployment is moving centre-stage - George Magnus

The official unemployment series has placed the unemployment rate at +/- 4 per cent for as long as the series has been published. And this, ...