關於 federal interest rate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

#Opinion by Li Ruofan 李若凡｜"As for risk assets, although rising US Treasury yields may cause volatility, especially for technology stocks that are sensitive to interest rates, I do not see that as a sign of a bear market. Rather, it suggests a risk-on mood may prevail in the market. For one thing, the Fed and other central banks may maintain a loose policy, thus creating a low interest rate environment. Besides, the traditional economy may benefit from gradual economic recovery and the easing of lockdown measures. Third, although the real rate of return of 10-year US Treasuries has increased, the rate remains negative, meaning the rate of return of risk assets is still attractive."

Read more: https://bit.ly/3chSBbN

"至於風險資產，儘管美債收益率上升可能引起波動，尤其是對利率敏感的科技股，惟筆者認為這並非熊市的先兆。反而，市場的情緒仍可能偏向risk-on。首先，美聯儲和其他主要央行短期內可能維持寬鬆政策不變，為投資者繼續營造一個低息環境。其次，隨經濟復蘇及封鎖措施解除，舊經濟板塊可能受惠。第三，美國10年期實際收益率雖有所上升，但仍處於負值，意味風險資產的收益率仍然吸引。"
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特朗普準備下台，被施壓的聯儲局突然良心發現太低息助長泡沫。

Senior Federal Reserve officials are calling for tougher financial regulation to prevent the US central bank’s low interest-rate policies from giving rise to excessive risk-taking and asset bubbles in the markets.

The push reflects concerns that the Fed’s ultra-loose monetary policy for struggling families and businesses risks becoming a double-edge sword, encouraging behaviour detrimental to economic recovery and creating pressure for additional bailouts.

【Fed宣布成立臨時FIMA Repo Facility】

根據美東時間3/31最新的Fed新聞稿，Fed宣布成立臨時FIMA Repo Facility（a temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities）。其目的是要對美國家庭與企業維持足夠的信用供給（supply of credit to U.S. households and businesses）。

還記得我在最近好幾篇文章反覆強調：「美國短期現金市場的流動性短缺如不能快速得到解決，當美國國債持有者為了流動性而大規模賣出美國國債引發殖利率快速飆升時，美國政府馬上就有財政危機，政府破產的可能性不容小覷！」

果然，這個FIMA Repo Facility的成立目的可從Fed提供的Q&A中看到：
「The facility reduces the need for central banks to sell their Treasury securities outright and into illiquid markets, which will help to avoid disruptions to the Treasury market and upward pressure on yields. By allowing central banks to use their securities to raise dollars quickly and efficiently, the facility will also support local markets in U.S. dollars and bolster broader market confidence. Stabilizing foreign dollar markets, in turn, will support foreign economic conditions and thereby benefit the U.S. economy through many channels, including confidence and trade.」

Fed這手明顯是害怕美國國債的最大持有者如中國或日本等國家央行在此時向市場倒貨。FIMA針對的就是外國央行設計以避免美國政府或大型企業、金融機構的破產危機。我們可以再看Fed的說明：
「The FIMA repo facility would allow foreign central banks to temporarily raise dollars by selling U.S. Treasuries to the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account and agreeing to buy them back at the maturity of the repurchase agreement. The term of the agreement will be overnight, but can be rolled over as needed. The transaction would be conducted at an interest rate of 25 basis points over the rate on IOER (Interest on Excess Reserves), which generally exceeds private repo rates when the Treasury market is functioning well, so the facility would primarily be used only in unusual circumstances such as those prevailing at present.」

目前我還是維持上篇文章「黃金與美國政府債券價格的現階段意義」的看法：
「現階段而言，我們開始看到黃金與美國國債價格回穩，則美國政府最緊急的流動性問題應該是大致得到解決。」

我對美國股市保持理性樂觀，詳細理由有空再寫新文章解釋。

https://bit.ly/3aAHsj5