Is a U.S.-China hot war imminent?|Lee Yee
In July, Pompeo claimed the American policy towards China is harsher than the one towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. The approach has been shifted from “listening to its words and watching its deeds” to “ignoring its words and only watching its deeds”. Recent developments show that the U.S. is striding closer and closer to a complete de-linkage with China. The recall of the ambassador from China was just a prelude. What followed was the U.S. official interpretation that “one China policy” is not equivalent to “one China principle”, plus the emphasis that “the U.S. holds no specific standpoint towards the sovereignty of Taiwan”. Furthermore, during the visit of Krach, U.S. Under Secretary of State, Tsai Ing-wen stated that “Taiwan has the determination to take the critical step”. Adding fuel to this, Hsiao Bi Khim, Taiwan’s delegate at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., introduced herself as the “Taiwan Ambassador to the U.S.” on Twitter. In view of all these, is the U.S. going to establish diplomatic relation with Taiwan? Will it turn out to be the “October surprise” before the U.S. presidential election? In response, China dispatched fighter jets to violate the airspace of Taiwan, and as “Global Times” put it, “this was not a gesture of warning, but an actual combat exercise of attacking Taiwan”. In return, Taiwan authority urged China “not to underestimate its armed forces' resolve in safeguarding Taiwan”. As tension keeps building up across the Strait, will the U.S. intervene and finally trigger a U.S.-China hot war?
For the last few months, while analyzing the situation, quite a few observers have drawn upon the “Thucydides trap” originated from an ancient Greek historian. According to this theory, when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as an international hegemony, there will be an unavoidable tendency towards war.
To be frank, these observers may have well overestimated the strength of China. Thanks to its huge population, China has become the second largest economic entity in the world. But we are now living in an era that national strength is rather defined by technological advancement. In reality, China is militarily inferior to Russia and technologically lagging far behind major western countries. To put it simply, China is yet to be capable of challenging the American dominance.
Back in the 1980s, in the heyday of its economic development, Japan has significantly outperformed the U.S. in the capital market, and some American scholars have come to the “Japan No.1” conclusion. Despite this, there was never a sign of military confrontation between U.S. and Japan. A decade later, the formation of the European Union posed new challenge to the American supremacy. But again, the two did not come anywhere close to a war. So why has the emergence of China, which in fact lacks the capabilities to overwhelm the U.S., aroused much anticipation of war?
Rudolph Rummel, an American professor of political studies, have made a thorough analysis on the correlation between wars and democracy in human history. After humans surviving a thousand years of darkness, it was not until the independence of the U.S. in 1776 that unveiled a democratic institution with public elections, separation of powers, multi-party system as well as freedom of speech, press, religion and assembly. After more than a hundred years, in 1900 there were only 13 democratic countries in the world. And after another decade, in 2015 the rose to 130, and dictatorial states without meaningful elections have become the minority.
According to Rummel’s statistics, there were 371 wars between 1816 and 2005. Among them, 205 were fought between two dictatorial countries and 166 between democratic and dictatorial ones. Interestingly, there had not been a single war between democratic countries. The conclusion is all too obvious: if there were only democratic states on earth, wars would not happen.
And here lies the fundamental reason why the “Thucydides Trap” has been more valid in the old days when dictatorial systems prevailed, but has failed to apply in contemporary cases between two democratic countries. And it also explains why the competitions between the U.S. and Japan or the EU have not led to any war, while the challenge from China will probably end up differently.
In a democratic system, to wage a war requires a consensus among the government, legislature, media and public opinion. It is rather a matter of the people’s collective will than the ruler’s subjective decision. Whereas within a dictatorial structure, no approval from the legislature is needed, media and public opinion are never respected and judicial challenge simply does not exist. A dictator or oligarch can just go to war at will.
From a dictator’s point of view, whether to enter a war or not is not subject to external circumstance, but the domestic status of his ruling. When a dictator’s position gets shaken by severe economic downturn and widespread public discontent, he will try to divert domestic dissatisfaction by means of foreign maneuvers. The dictator tends to single out those “non-conforming groups”, as so identified by the “little pink” Chinese patriots, and tries bullying them, as what the CCP is doing in India, Hong Kong and Inner Mongolia. The objective is to distract attention with extreme nationalism. More often than not, stirring up external instability has become a tactic to secure domestic stability of the dictator’s rule.
Perhaps a shrewd dictator will weigh up the strength of his counterpart before taking action. Nevertheless, the intrinsically defective system may hinder the dictator from understanding the reality and accessing different views. And personal intellectual and intelligent inadequacies may also breed unrealistic self-inflating belief. The resulted stupidity can make a tragedy more imminent than everyone may expect.
greek election 在 Eric's English Lounge Facebook 的最佳解答
[時事英文大全]
I heard some of you are interested in learning English through the news.
聽說有一些同學想要透過新聞來學英文?
Here are some news articles I've written in the past few years. They include international news stories, keywords and collocations, and even transcripts and audio recordings. Hope these resources will help you achieve your learning goals!
以下是我寫的時事英文的連結,包含這幾年來的世界大事、關鍵詞彙、搭配詞、甚至自錄的音檔與逐字稿,希望可以幫助同學完成學習的目標。
覺得資源有用按個讚或分享就好了~
★★★★★★★★★★★★
2014
[時事英文] 2014 Taiwan Food Scandal: Gutter Oil 餿水油食安事件: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1V0
[時事英文] US Protests: Week of Outrage: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1V5
More: http://bit.ly/2LpnbUA
★★★★★★★★★★★★
2015
[時事英文] The Wealth Gap in Taiwan 台灣的貧富差距: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Vc
[時事英文] 2015 Nepal Earthquake 2015年尼泊爾地震: http://bit.ly/2JbeZ8b
[時事英文] Capital Punishment: http://bit.ly/2vh27ph
[時事英文] The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 亞洲基礎設施投資銀行: http://bit.ly/2Yz5qF8
[時事英文] The Greek Financial Crisis 20個希臘債務危機的關鍵片語!: http://bit.ly/30aXlXH
[時事英文] Conference of Parties 21 巴黎氣候峰會: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Vf
★★★★★★★★★★★★
2016
[時事英文] Leonardo DiCaprio Oscar's Curse Is Over! 落獎詛咒總算解除了: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Vj
[時事英文] Brexit 10句英文幫你快速了解英國退歐: http://bit.ly/328cAm5
[時事英文] The Syrian Civil War 敘利亞內戰 : http://bit.ly/2FUK3qD
[時事英文] Train to Busan 屍速列車: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Vm
[時事英文] China Warns Trump 中國警告特朗普
http://bit.ly/2FUKDoj
★★★★★★★★★★★★
2017
[時事英文] Davos 2017 達沃斯論壇: http://bit.ly/2JkcEXm
[時事英文] Trump's Inauguration Speech 川普總統就職演說+美國總統奧巴馬的「向前看」的告別演說: http://bit.ly/2RXGUuX
[時事英文] Alibaba’s Ma meets Trump 馬雲與特朗普會面: http://bit.ly/2JcxKrC
[時事英文] Trump and Abe Meeting 美國總統川普、日本總理安倍晉三會談: http://bit.ly/2JcP5Ro
[時事英文] The 89th Academy Awards Ceremony 奧斯卡頒獎典禮的26句經典片語): http://bit.ly/2NyxqYs
[時事英文] 3.07.2017 Current Events 3.07時事英文: http://bit.ly/2LCyBDY
[時事英文] 3.16.2017 Current Events 3.16時事英文: http://bit.ly/2LAZloc
[時事英文] A Tale of Two Koreas 兩韓故事: http://bit.ly/2KYaShZ
[時事英文] 2017 G20 Hamburg Summit G20論壇關鍵片語: http://bit.ly/2Jb2ARu
[時事英文] #MeToo 「#我也是」
http://bit.ly/2NzkfGR
★★★★★★★★★★★★
2018
[時事英文] Twins Take a Stand Against Discrimination 跨越歧視: http://bit.ly/2RQdy1u
[時事英文] A War of Words 口水戰爭: http://bit.ly/2RU3RPy
[時事英文] US Gun Policies 美國槍枝政策: http://bit.ly/2JdLmTN
[時事英文] Cancer Vaccine 癌症疫苗: http://bit.ly/2LBkHSr
[時事英文] A Potential Trade War with China 中美貿易戰 I: http://bit.ly/2E2sp3p
[時事英文] Mark Zuckerberg Testifies Before Congress 祖克柏首赴美國會作證: http://bit.ly/2YvTKmR
[時事英文] North Korea’s Kim Jong-un crosses into South Korea 金正恩跨入南韓: http://bit.ly/2L0bgws
[時事英文] Crazy Rich Asians 瘋狂的亞洲富豪: http://bit.ly/2FNDzdd
[時事英文] 5.18 Current Events 兩分鐘全球英文新聞摘要: http://bit.ly/2RTVt2M
[時事英文] Here's Why British Women Wear Hats at Weddings 為什麼英國女性要在婚禮上戴帽子? http://bit.ly/3222IKy
[時事英文] Trump’s Letter to Kim Jong-un 金正恩收到美國總統川普的信件: http://bit.ly/2FUH5Cq
[時事英文] An Orangutan Fights to Save His Home 紅毛猩猩與推土機搏鬥: http://bit.ly/2RTwLPY
[時事英文] Lottery, a Tax on the Poor? 彩券是一種窮人稅?: http://bit.ly/2XrDm5s
[時事英文] The Trump-Kim Summit and Agreement 川金會: http://bit.ly/2NvEZiI
[時事英文] A Typhoon Day 颱風假英文要怎麼說?: http://bit.ly/2JdgnY0
[時事英文] Positive News 正面新聞: http://bit.ly/2KYi9yd
[時事英文] Election Results 選舉新聞模板: http://bit.ly/2Nx5YdH
★★★★★★★★★★★★
2019
[時事英文] Top Global Brands 近7年來世界領先品牌的增長與下降!: http://bit.ly/326pS2u
[時事英文]Mazu Told Me…「媽祖托夢告訴我」英文怎麼說…: http://bit.ly/324C4AV
[時事英文] 6.1 Earthquake Rattles Taiwan 頭搖的好暈喔…希望大家都平安!
http://bit.ly/2FUMMQT
[時事英文] Earth’s Day 2019 地球日 2019: http://bit.ly/2Xr5CoA
[時事英文] Han’s Get Rich Slogans 韓市長的「發大財」英文怎麼說?: http://bit.ly/2KYFQ9G
[時事英文] How to Spot Fake News 如何分辨假新聞: http://bit.ly/2RTXtrO
[時事英文] Yang2020 美國會有華人總統嗎?: http://bit.ly/328Zt3X
[時事英文] Wan An Exercise 萬安演習: http://bit.ly/2Yzhzdl
[時事英文] China US Anchors Debate 美中女主播貿易戰辯論: http://bit.ly/2LyvxZr
[時事英文] Ma and Tsai's English Speaking 馬前總統和蔡總統的英文口說能力: http://bit.ly/327EUoH
[時事英文] English Speaking Challenge: Top Politicians 三位政治大咖的英文口說能力!: http://bit.ly/2FSZY90
[時事英文] EVA Air Strike 42個關鍵英文片語幫你理解長榮罷工事件! 「秋後算帳」英文怎麼說?: http://bit.ly/2xxg1os
[時事英文] Fake News? 假新聞? http://bit.ly/2Xs2tKc
[時事英文] Xi-Trump G20 Meeting 紐約時報 G20「習川會」的關鍵英文詞彙: http://bit.ly/2Nvbu0v
[時事英文] HK's Extradition Bill 引渡法案:
http://bit.ly/2AWA4Oz
...and more: http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
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Discussions of current events: http://bit.ly/319JHW2
時事英文直播 1 Saudi Arabia Oil Attack (9.24.2019): http://bit.ly/2mhscTU
時事英文直播 2 Climate Change (10.01.2019): http://bit.ly/2oZGCth
時事英文直播 3 Perspectives on Hong Kong's Protests (10.08.2019): http://bit.ly/33fi3HG
greek election 在 Kristie Lu Stout Facebook 的精選貼文
#Like.
The most talked-about topics on Facebook this year were weighty, substantive matters:
1. US Presidential Election
2. November 13 Attacks in Paris
3. Syrian Civil War & Refugee Crisis
4. Nepal Earthquakes
5. Greek Debt Crisis
6. Marriage Equality
7. Fight Against ISIS
8. Charlie Hebdo Attack
9. Baltimore Protests
10. Charleston Shooting & Flag Debate
greek election 在 Voting continues in Greek election - YouTube 的推薦與評價
(25 Jun 2023) RESTRICTION SUMMARY:ASSOCIATED PRESSAthens - 25 June 20231. Wide of polling station2. Close-up of election official stamping ... ... <看更多>