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美元將強勢回歸?美國銀行從歷史經驗看好下半年升勢
根據彭博社報導
美國銀行的高級外匯分析師看好美元下半年表現
主要是從歷史經驗來觀察
尤其是目前的大規模財政政策很可能讓通膨進一步上升
在經濟穩定的環境下可能面臨收緊貨幣政策的壓力
因此美元很可能表現得比之前預期的還要強勁
同一份報告中也說了未來股市可能在半年到一年中受衝擊
整個看下來
這個觀點大概是之前通膨高經濟好所以要縮減QE的延伸
只是在財政政策可能可以取代貨幣政策的環境下
加快收緊資金的速度有利未來新危機出現時能有多一點武器
也就是擴張財政配合緊縮資金
效果好不好就要留待時間來驗證
相關新聞連結可以點這邊看
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今天, 應該是最炫最酷的一家公司, Robinhood, 上市的一天. 它獲利了嗎? 我想沒有多少投資人會care. 最關心的, 應該是它的營收成長率, 還有股價.
在我們一直追逐科技成長股, 被他們的高營收成長率, 潛在的高報酬昏眩的時候, 會不會忘記他們醜得要命的財務報表?
而在今年, 大家追逐的這些趨勢股表現不佳的時候, 是不是也給了我們一些省思?
其實美股中, 還有很多財務報表漂亮, 但聽起來一點也不有趣(甚至很無聊)的公司, 但他們股價穩定, 長期下來, 也給了投資人很大的回報. 像之前介紹過的POOL, 過去幾年也是平均一年翻一倍的漲幅.
而在IPO中, 也有這類的好公司.
Carrier Global(CARR), 2020年4月上市的IPO, 算是工業類股, 漲了快5倍. 有在獲利. (開利冷氣應該有聽過?就是這家公司)
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), 民生消費股, 也有獲利, 2020年10月上市的IPO, 目前也漲了3倍.
下面這篇文章挺好. 與大家分享. 就像文章作者所提的, 龜兔賽跑, 穩(漲)的烏龜, 不一定會輸.
也祝福大家找到&培養自己的能力圈, 穩穩獲利.
Jim Cramer: The Biggest Thing That Happened Thursday Was the Boring Stuff
No, it wasn't Robinhood or the mega-cap tech companies, it was names we depend on like Carrier Global.
By JIM CRAMER Jul 29, 2021 | 03:38 PM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: HOOD, FB, PYPL, CARR, RTX, NUE, AGCO, ZM, ALGN, AAPL, EBAY, AMD, XLNX
One of the most glorious things I have seen involving the stock market in ages happened today.
Was it Vlad Tenev ringing the opening bell for his breakthrough, disruptive Robinhood (HOOD) , representing 22 million mostly young new investors? Was it the free-for-all decline in the stock of the "F" in FAANG, Facebook (FB) ? Or the clobbering that Paypal (PYPL) took after what looked to be a good quarter?
Nah. I was bumping into Dave Gitlin, CEO of Carrier Global (CARR) , and his charming daughter, a college student at the University of Wisconsin. They were calmly waiting for me to finish "Squawk on the Street" to say, "Hi," and I couldn't be more thrilled. Because unlike the much ballyhooed Robinhood deal, which seems like a bust, Carrier Global came public back in April 2020 at $12 and today, after tremendous earnings, not sales, but earnings, it made an all-time high at $53, after reporting a terrific number with tremendous HVAC sales, up 31%, and an earnings surprise of 55 cents vs. the 30 cents that Wall Street was expecting.
Carrier, which was spun off when United Technologies merged with Raytheon (RTX) had some tailwinds, like the need to have clean air inside, because of the pandemic and clear air outside because office buildings are responsible for 40% of carbon emissions. But the huge upside surprise and the gigantic buyback belonged to Dave and his team and I that's what I told his daughter. I made sure she knew how proud she should be about how this man made so much money for people. Twelve to 53 in 15 months time is the name of the game.
Look, I am not trying to take away from anything that Robinhood and its co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev have created. Far from it. They have created billions for themselves and are now letting people participate in their great sales growth. You got a chance to pay a fortune per share and many Robinhoodies did, as tons of stock was allocated to the 22 million people who joined Robinhood, because of a bang up app that every young person seems to know.
I am simply saying that HVAC, yep heating, ventilation and air conditioning is one of the most boring businesses on earth and at times like today, with all of the hoopla of Robinhood it is easy to forget is how lots of money can be made being boring, and I like that. The most exciting thing that happened this year is Carrier helped provide refrigeration for vaccines. That's just fine with me.
Unlike Robinhood, Carrier hasn't brought anyone into the stock market. It's more laser-like focus on air conditioning once spun off from Raytheon means nothing to people. Just Wall Street gibberish. But you have probably walked by a Carrier machine thousands of times and never thought anything of it. Yet, you could have bought it for a song at six times earnings instead of 25 times sales.
The Carriers, with CEOs who pay themselves lavishly but perhaps not excessively, or the Nucor's (NUE) the steel company that's also well managed and sells at six times earnings, represent valuable properties, especially when the U.S. government is about to agree on a trillion dollar infrastructure bill and the country has more than 6% GDP. We don't know why they are re-opening trades or closing trades, delta-variant trades or building and bridge investments. Forgive me, though for comparing the company of Robinhood, with something that may stay special for a while vs. companies that get described as venerable, solid and built to last.
These companies are not rarities. You know people have to eat, right? You know that there would be famine without farming. So why not buy the stock of Agco (AGCO) , No. 2 farm equipment, which went from $40 to $130 in a year and a half without ever being expensive. Combines too boring? Again fine with me. Now that the masks are off -- or at least in some places, although Zoom (ZM) is still crushing it -- I, like many others, including my daughter, didn't like how her teeth looked even as, to me, they were perfect. Dentists tell you to get Align (ALGN) . I wanted them on "Mad Money" but the show was just too darned jammed. The stock's up the most in the S&P 500, with a product that, again, like the Purloined Letter, is right in front of you.
I love tech. Created the term FANG, added the "A" when it was clear that Apple (AAPL) had to take the acronymic stage between another "A" and an "N." I am proud that those who bet against me on Twitter, the legion, are betting against FAANG. I wrote obituaries for a goodly time in my career as a reporter but I never wrote as many as have been penned to talk about the group has already made the ultimate measure on behalf of shareholders.
Oh and it's not like I don't like tech or fin tech. I felt the slings and arrows of Facebook and PayPal today. Facebook's management once again lowered the boom on its future talking about real deceleration in growth. I thought it was too dire. PayPal's Dan Schulman talked about how the separation with its former partner, eBay (EBAY) gets done now and earnings will be hurt. This was one of the least revelatory surprises ever. I think both are practicing UPOD, Underpromising to Overdeliver, and, sure this time might be different, but it's sure been the way they have handled it in the past.
Far better to be in the straight out blow outs like Advance Micro (AMD) which had still one more banner day, this time because the company it is buying, the dowdy Xilinx (XLNX) , a sleepy semiconductor company, had tremendous earnings. The two together could be unassailable and even as AMD is now richly valued it is deservingly so.
I can't wait to hear Vlad Tenev's reflection on Robinhood's debut as a public company and about the novel offering that gave millions of shares to his clients. Vlad's not so much a rags to riches American story. He's a poor Bulgarian to insanely rich American because of his on ingenuity. That's a story with celebrating in itself.
I am simply pointing out that unlike Vlad, whom you would have had invested with when you weren't allowed or able to, Dave Gitlin sure didn't keep you out of the better bet, the stock of HVAC king Carrier.
You did.
#Opinion by Mr. Tregunter｜"Play in a reversal mode. The U.S. dollar has started to fall this year, and only after foreign investors enter the U.S. bond market did the dollar return to its original level. This is similar to an IPO of a stock, which offers a lower price to large investors before speculating higher. What kind of tactics will be played, we do not know yet, but it is estimated that we will see some indications during the first half of this year. In any case, the turnaround period is expected to be more volatile, so it is advisable to be cautious."
Read more: https://bit.ly/3asJhjZ
"調轉玩，美元今年就開始跌，等外國投資者入場買美債後，美元才回到原本水平，等於股票IPO低價批畀大戶後才炒高。會玩何種手法，未知道，但估計今年上半年會見到端倪。無論如何，轉折期估計有較大震盪，宜慎。"
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HALF DOLLAR 在PTT/DCARD討論網購與高評價商品，提供WALKING HALF DOLLARS優惠價格，找HALF DOLLAR相關商品就來飛比. ... <看更多>
half dollar 在 HALF DOLLAR-PTT/DCARD討論與高評價商品-2021年11月 的推薦與評價
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