【華府智庫資深總監易思安:中國擬用民間大型船艦運輸軍隊,最可能登陸台中港】
3Q辦公室編譯,同步刊載於 沃草 Watchout
《中共攻台大解密》作者、美國華府智庫「2049 計畫研究所」(Project 2049 Institute)資深總監易思安( Ian Easton )近期發表 “Hostile Harbors: Taiwan’s Ports and PLA Invasion Plans” 一文,表示若解放軍要在侵臺戰爭中取得優勢,至少要讓 225 萬的軍隊登陸臺灣。為了實現這個戰史上從無前例的「超大型」登陸作戰,解放軍正積極研擬動用民用大型船艦運輸軍隊,以及奪取、佔領臺灣港口讓攻臺需要的超大規模登陸可能實現。高雄港、台北港等大型港口都可能是解放軍亟欲拿下的目標,但如果以港口設施及周邊地形地貌能為登陸帶來最大效益為考量,台中港最有可能是解放軍奪取與嘗試登陸的地點。
#超大型規模的侵略行動
易思安認為,中國對臺可能的侵略行動將是「超大型」規模,即便是人類歷史上最宏大的兩棲作戰如諾曼第登陸、沖繩島戰役,都無法和中國侵臺相比,因為前兩者的地形環境條件都相較臺灣容易登陸。臺灣的沿海地形除了易於防守外,全島僅有14個小型的海灘適合登陸,且都與懸崖或人口密集的城市接壤,況且由於長年受颱風、地震襲擊,臺灣的建物和橋樑都設計得足夠承受劇烈震動。
而這個擁有極端地理環境的島國,也充滿著武裝防禦的力量。文中指出,臺灣於戰時可以動員至少45萬反入侵部隊,雖然只有19萬的常備軍力,但擁有龐大後備軍力,並且在國家後備系統中有著大量民間機構和公司的人員,包括航空公司人員、推土機操作員、司機、船員等。同時,臺灣和中國分別擁有的籌碼,例如遠程導彈、網路及電子戰武器、無人機群、大規模殺傷性武器(生物、化學、放射物質)以及削弱對方經濟的能力,都讓臺海可能發生的衝突充滿難以量化的複雜因素,遑論雙方都有大量的公民居住在對方的領土上。
可以預期的是,在侵略臺灣的戰役中,中國將動員數以百萬計的武裝力量。為維持進攻的優勢(攻方比守方多3到5倍的人數)並考量臺灣的地形因素,假設臺灣有45萬守軍,中國可能要出動接近 225 萬人的軍隊,這便需要規模龐大的船艦數量來運輸作戰部隊穿越臺灣海峽,而這也是中國近年透過制定法律、催生國有企業主導的全球海運集團,以推進軍民融合戰略(military-civil fusion)的關鍵所在——掌握大量民用艦船,為支持對臺動武做準備。
#侵臺關鍵和解放軍戰略
根據解放軍內部研究分析,港口將是侵略臺灣的核心支點,因此中國投入大量資源研究並計畫如何佔領臺灣的港口,並評估臺灣防禦港口的計畫及能力。而解放軍研究人員判斷,臺灣軍方將把保衛本島的港口視為重中之重,除了在戰時將港口設為防禦據點、以射擊陣地網絡包圍港口外,若解放軍突破臺灣軍方設下的屏障,臺灣會採取非常措施確保港口的安全,包括以封鎖港口、摧毀碼頭等手段阻絕入侵者。
而中國也計畫了6種奪取臺灣港口的戰術,並評估其優缺點,包括:直接兩棲攻擊(Direct Amphibious Attacks)、間接兩棲攻擊(Indirect Amphibious Attacks)、掠海突襲(Sea-Skimming Raids)、空襲(Air Assaults)、橫向攻擊(Horizon Attacks)以及特種部隊滲透(Special Forces Infiltration)。根據各項戰術的優劣,中國軍事研究將其組合成一個綜合作戰方針,而其目標不僅在於奪取和佔領臺灣大型港口,更要盡快開放和使用港口以支持全面的侵略行動。
#解放軍在臺灣的準備和佔領目標
易思安指出,過去20年來中共在臺灣的主要港口設立代表辦公室、投資臺灣的港口建設項目、並獲得部分臺灣港口基礎建設的直接使用權,例如:在 2018 年中國中遠海運(COSCO Shipping)收購東方海外(Orient Overseas)後,取得了高雄「高明貨櫃碼頭」的控制權,高明貨櫃碼頭更使用與中國軍方關係密切的上海振華重工(ZPMC)製造的自動化智慧型起重機。除此之外,其他臺灣的港口,也大量使用來自中國中央直屬企業——中國交通建設集團(CCCC)子公司振華重工的起重機,去年夏天,CCCC 因其和解放軍的關係而被美國國防部列入黑名單。
易思安也示警,振華重工採用的自動化指揮和控制系統、卡車和貨櫃位置追蹤系統等自動監視數據,可能會被傳回中國,使中國軍方能持續收集臺灣港口的即時情報,中國官員和代理人在臺灣主要港口和當地商界建立關係,更可用於情報搜集和心理戰行動。
而臺灣有哪些港口可能成為解放軍的主要佔領目標呢?易思安評估,由於中國軍方會將目標擺在可以快速卸載主戰坦克和其他重型裝備的港口,並考量周遭相對平坦、輕度城市化的海灘及三角洲地形,「台中港」似乎會成為解放軍主要嘗試登陸的地點,而高雄港、麥寮港、台北港和安平港也在潛在目標之列。另外,由於臺灣的軍港基礎設施非常適合佔領後的推進行動,因此即便防禦嚴密,包含左營港在內的軍港也會成為解放軍全面攻擊、佔領的目標。
#臺灣的因應之道
從這份報告檢閱的研究和文件素材中,可以發現中國對侵略臺灣行動持有高度的重視和準備;對臺灣而言,則凸顯了保護自身免於中國脅迫的各項挑戰。易思安在文末提到,臺灣政府可以關閉中國控制的代表辦公室、檢視關鍵港口基礎設施、並為可能的解放軍港口入侵計畫做好準備,這包括部隊的訓練、後備戰力的改革、對公眾的教育等等,讓公民能識別、抵制解放軍的政治作戰,並在戰時做出貢獻。
易思安認為,美臺安全關係是兩岸領導人決策中最重要的戰略考量,美國和臺灣應該朝著正常、穩定和建設性的關係努力,美方可以派遣海軍陸戰隊和特種作戰部隊到臺灣執行長期訓練、聯絡任務,派遣高級將領參與和規劃港口的防禦演習。他也呼籲,美國應該持續擺脫過去在外交上孤立臺灣的政策——就像臺灣實際上是一個具有國際重要性的獨立國家一樣。
圖片為漢光36號演習臺中港防反特攻操演,軍聞社拍攝。
同時也有3部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過14萬的網紅Mars Hartdegen,也在其Youtube影片中提到,IGI Covert Strike missions list: #1 Infiltration #2 Deep in the mines #3 The weather Station #4 Bridge Across Dnester #5 Ambush #6 Production facility...
infiltration air 在 新‧二七部隊 軍事雜談 Facebook 的最佳貼文
北韓公佈軍演畫面,不一樣的是出現以特種部隊樣貌進行演練,橡皮艇搶灘、夜視鏡、特戰裝備等出現,北韓似乎有「高人」指點戰略方向,雖然特戰裝備等級「初生之犢」但提升了軍人訓練素質,更不要說北韓本身擁有近20萬的特種作戰部隊
North Korean Special Forces Simulate a Rapid Assault Against and Capture of an Enemy Island in Response to US-South Korean War Games
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and many of the county's military leaders supervised special forces exercises supported by artillery. The drills involved a barrage on simulated enemy positions from the air and from artillery units followed by rapid landings of special forces personnel by sea and air to capture enemy positions and neutralize remaining hostile forces. North Korea's military often holds military exercises to demonstrate the country's readiness for war in response to joint US-South Korean military drills, and these exercises come amidst America's Freedom Guardian military exercises taking place from August 21st to 31st. The country's new special forces uniforms and equipment were recently unveiled in a military parade on April 15th 2017 and several units appear to already have been outfitted with state of the art combat armor, night vision optics and grenade launchers.
North Korea's special forces remain among its primary military assets, and are the world's largest special operations force at 180,000 personnel. The units have shown themselves to be highly capable with elite training standards, as demonstrated in the 1996 Gangneung submarine infiltration incident when three members of the North Korean special forces became stranded in South Korea. These personnel managed to evade forces of tens of thousands of South Korean soldiers searching for them for 49 days. By the time two of them were finally found and killed they had killed twelve South Korean soldiers and caused twenty seven more military casualties. The remaining operative was never captured and is assumed to have successfully returned to North Korea. Should a war break out and North Korea be able to deploy these forces in large numbers behind enemy lines, be they Japan, South Korea or Pacific nations hosting US military forces, they will almost certainly wreak havoc far beyond what North Korean missile forces and artillery alone could achieve.
By testing the offensive capabilities of its special operations forces North Korea is signaling to its potential adversaries that should they attempt to start war the country's retaliation will come in the form of not only missile strikes and artillery - but also of the deployment of 180,000 elite forces capable of infiltration and sabotage. Should these units successfully manage to open up second fronts behind enemy lines, the result will be significant destruction and chaos which will significantly undermine the war efforts of North Korea's adversaries. Should North Korea's special forces be able to strike key civilian and military infrastructure, they could well have a significant impact on the outcome of a war on the Korean Peninsula and ultimately force the United States and their allies onto a defensive in a way not seen since the Vietcong's Tet Offensive in 1968. Indeed, considering that the first phase of the Tet offensive was carried out with just 80,000 regular Vietcong personnel, infiltration by 180,000 elite North Korean forces against the far more complex and vulnerable infrastructure of modern South Korea and Japan, relative to that of South Vietnam, would cause destruction on a scale orders of magnitude greater than the Tet offensive ever did.
Shown below: New North Korean Special Forces Equipment and Uniforms Unveiled During April 15th 2017 Military Parade; North Korean Special Forces Conduct Landings By Sea (x2); North Korean Artillery Barrage Against Simulated Enemy Positions (x2); North Korean Special Forces Conduct Landings By Air; North Korean Special Forces Conduct Landings By Sea (x4).
infiltration air 在 Mars Hartdegen Youtube 的精選貼文
IGI Covert Strike missions list:
#1 Infiltration
#2 Deep in the mines
#3 The weather Station
#4 Bridge Across Dnester
#5 Ambush
#6 Production facility
#7 Border crossing
#8 Libyan Rendezvous
#9 Prision escape
#10 Pribios villa
#11 The Airfield
#12 Zaleb's stronghold
#13 Showdown At the docks
#14 Island aasult
#15 Air-Strike
#16 The Ancient temple
#17 The secret Weapon Lab
#18 Mission control
#19 The Launch Pad
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/YZPMzo9YBT0/hqdefault.jpg)
infiltration air 在 Anini Youtube 的最佳解答
【メタルギアソリッド5 FOB レベル61 支援班プラットフォーム 完全ステルス】
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
FOB Infiltration Support Platform
LV61, Long range, Perfect stealth
How to bridge jump
1. Pay attention to guards, camera and UAV
2. Keep crawling toward the pipe (you can go forward to the limit without falling)
3. Crouch while crawl
4. One leg is floating in the air
5. Quick dive
6. Do nothing (automatically grab the pipe)
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/k8gDdkJTIkE/hqdefault.jpg)
infiltration air 在 Anini Youtube 的最佳貼文
How to bridge jump
1. Pay attention to guards, camera and UAV
2. Keep crawling toward the pipe (you can go forward to the limit without falling)
3. Crouch while crawl
4. One leg is floating in the air
5. Quick dive (There was no need to stand up)
6. Do nothing (automatically grab the pipe)
There is one thing to note.
I don't know why, but if you climb down the ladder, you can't do that until next infiltration.
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/9XFq5XXnK9c/hqdefault.jpg)