【#閱讀隨筆】香港由世界推動中國走向開放的最前線,變成世界抵抗中國向外擴張影響力的最前線,這就是香港局勢變化的宏觀地緣政治脈絡。
1980年代,中國走向改革開放,世界憧憬中國將按「現代化理論」,由經濟改革帶動政治改革;香港就在這個脈絡下,被世界認為可成為帶動中國走向開放的火車頭,這也是「民主回歸論」所代表的樂觀主義的時代背景。30年後,中國卻走向「中國模式」,並逐步向外擴張影響力,輸出威權資本主義;香港就在這個脈絡下,變成抵抗這波擴張的最前線。誰說香港不是地緣政治熱點?
Hong Kong has been changed from the “forefront of the world in opening up China” into the “forefront of the world in defending China's expanding influences”, this is the macro-geopolitical context that shapes Hong Kong's changing environment.
In the 1980s, China was opening up itself and the whole world expected that its economic reforms will bring about political reforms in accordance with “Modernization Theory”; It was the context where Hong Kong was perceived as the engine for fostering the opening-up of China, it was also the background behind the formation of optimist “Democratic Reunification Theory”. 30 years later, China is moving toward “China Model”, gradually expanding its influences and authoritarian capitalism to the world; It is the context where Hong Kong has been unfortunately becoming the forefront of this expansionism. Who say that Hong Kong is not a hotspot of geopolitics?
▋延伸閱讀
中國天朝主義與台港命運/方志恒
https://goo.gl/vzbhI9
天朝氣旋下的台港 /黃冠能
https://goo.gl/n4tKmb
#中國天朝主義 #中國影響力 #中國因素 #ChineseImperialism #ChinaInfluences #ChinaFactor
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modernization theory 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 的最讚貼文
【#閱讀隨筆】隨著中國走向天朝主義(而不是按現化理論在經濟發展後走向民主化),「中國影響力」正全方位輻射到境外地區*和鄰近國家 —— 香港(和澳門)在最前線、接著是台灣、亞洲各國等等,形成幾層的「中國影響力同心圈」。「中國影響力」既能透過黨國機器直接施行(例如經貿、外交、軍事壓力),也會透過「在地協力者網絡」間接施行(例如親中政商學界精英、華人移民團體、中國留學生)。研究「中國影響力」將是未來學界顯學,也是不能迴避的政治挑戰。
When China is moving toward imperialism (instead of moving toward democratization after economic developments as predicted by Modernization Theory), “China influences” are affecting both “outside territories” and neighboring countries —— Hong Kong (Macao) has been at the forefront, followed by Taiwan and Asian neighboring states, resulting in “concentric circles of China influences”. “China influences” could be exerted directly through the CCP party-state (e.g. military/diplomatic/economic means), or indirectly through networks of local collaborators (e.g. pro-China political/business/academic elites, Chinese migrant groups and Chinese international students). Studying “China influences” should be popular in academia in the years to come, and it is also a political challenge that we cannot evade.
*在中國官方用語中,港澳台被稱為「境外地區」。
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/境内與境外
▋延伸閱讀
中國天朝主義與台港命運/方志恒
https://goo.gl/vzbhI9
天朝氣旋下的台港 /黃冠能
https://goo.gl/n4tKmb
#天朝中國 #天朝主義 #中國影響力 #中國因素
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modernization theory 在 方志恒 Brian Fong Facebook 的最佳解答
【#閱讀隨筆】過去三十年,對中國政治發展的一個設想,來自「現代化理論」(Modernization theory),即設想中國在推行經濟改革後,將逐步走上政治改革。美國傳統的「對華交往政策」(Engagement policy with China),就有很強的現代化理論色彩;克林頓總統便曾預言,加入WTO會令「中國變得更像美國」(China will become more like US)── 事實上,八十年代香港的「民主回歸論」,也一定程度是建立在「現代化理論」上。
但中國加入WTO後,卻走向走上另一條路,即結合威權政治和巿場經濟之「威權資本主義」(Authoritarian capitalism),並將之美化為「中國模式」。今天,中國民主化漸成奢想,甚至有中共學者揚言要輸出「中國模式」。「現代化理論」失落、「中國模式」崛起,正是引發近年全球政治格局、中美關係、兩岸關係、以至中港關係急劇變化的宏觀脈絡;不幸地,香港就是在這一波歷史性衝擊的最前線。
▋延伸閱讀
中國天朝主義與台港命運/方志恒
https://goo.gl/vzbhI9
#中國 #十九大 #現代化理論 #民主回歸論 #威權資本主義 #中國模式 #中美關係 #兩岸關係 #中港關係
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modernization theory 在 コバにゃんチャンネル Youtube 的最佳貼文
modernization theory 在 大象中醫 Youtube 的最佳解答
modernization theory 在 大象中醫 Youtube 的最讚貼文
modernization theory 在 Modernization Theory - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics 的相關結果
Modernization theory refers to a body of theory that became prominent in the 1950s and 1960s in relation to understanding issues of economic and social ... ... <看更多>
modernization theory 在 Modernization Theory - Oxford Research Encyclopedias 的相關結果
Modernization theory studies the process of social evolution and the development of societies. There are two levels of analysis in classical ... ... <看更多>
modernization theory 在 Modernization theory - Wikipedia 的相關結果
Modernization theory suggests that traditional societies will develop as they adopt more modern practices. Proponents of modernization theory claim that modern ... ... <看更多>