[今日寫啲乜]其實係兩篇文,呢個圖只係下集。上集冇出「今日寫啲乜」。點解?因為月尾多數冇人join,Anyway,兩篇都係周末專題,我會寫啲大課題心法嘢case study.同平時一至五嘅唔同。今次上下集,夾埋8000字。有圖有Excel畀你玩
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月頭訂最抵!2021比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費80,半年已1600人訂! 畀年費仲有85折
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2004年夏天,兩隻家傳戶曉嘅新股上市,一隻係Domino’s Pizza(DPZ),一隻係Google(GOOGL),你今日坐時光機返去,會買邊隻?
咁我個題已經話你知,雖然GOOGL係科企,甚至有人覺得係最geek最nerd嘅科企,今日FAAMG之一,地球上第三大企業,1.6萬億市值。但,居然上市至今回報,要跑輸呢間low tech Pizza公司
上集我差不多只講一樣嘢:return vs total return.股價升幅同總回報。你心諗唔係一樣?哦,仲有派息,但派得幾多?一年半年唔多,但積埋17年就好係嘢。如果你將啲股息再reinvest 落去隻股票,碌雪球利叠利,分別仲大。
DPZ,只計股價升幅同派息(冇再投資),1蚊變34蚊。但dividend reinvestment呢?1蚊變65蚊!爭好遠!亦係因為咁先跑贏GOOGL
咁你話,咁啱因為DPZ升得多,息又派得好。唔好咁屈機。咁簡單啲,標普指數。由2006年4月計起(點解?因為我開始做分析員),計到今日,有幾大分別? 冇reinvest嘅,1蚊變4.3。幾好啦。但有嘅,1蚊變5.1。都真係爭一截的
上集就都係老生常談嘢,stay in market,日子有功,time is your friend。收到股息唔好使咗佢,或者唔好使晒佢,至少點都碌返少少入股市。
但除咗呢啲仲有乜啟示?梗有啦,就係下集講。
下集我整埋個Excel,比較返兩間公司。咁首先,你見到長線地,股價都真係大約跟盈利行。未必跟足晒,但天道酬勤,利潤不停升嘅,股價總係會跟上去。正如不停輸錢嘅,點都會跌。
然後睇下,GOOGL梗係高科技啦。Big Tech護城河極深,只有佢搶其他人(包括Pizza舖)生意,冇掉轉。唔通DPZ可以搶Big Tech 生意?頂多啲工程師叫幾個Pizza
睇數睇到的,GOOGL 純利率,盈利增長,甚至規模都大過DPZ好多。GOOGL年賺400億,DPZ賣Pizza一年5億已經係神級。
咁但,最Tricky嘅位,點解DPZ回報都係跑贏?頭先講咗Dividend reinvestment ,但仲有其他嘢。其中一樣就係估值。好粗略計,GOOGL 2015年已經100倍市盈率,高科技嘛,但而家得25倍咋!Multiple contraction,估值收縮。相反,DPZ畀人覺得冇增長,當年13倍市盈率,但而家去到30倍,Multiple Expansion.呢度一來一回,加埋股息再投資,就爭一大截了
根本本身就好高市盈率嘅,好難長期維持,亦好難再expand.可惜過去好多年都係增長股跑贏,啲友鍾意聽故事講顛覆,就好少有人理估值。今年就價值股全部回歸,迪士尼跑贏NetFlix,福士跑贏Tesla
但再講落去,根本DPZ同GOOGL都係神股,why not both?兩隻都幾十個開。咁亦話你知,你買中呢啲公司,你根本唔怕其他啲嘢total loss,我贏一隻可以輸十隻。一定係think big,好公司可以升到你唔信,但壞公司亦只能跌100%。
而你亂咁止蝕止賺嘅,注定成唔到大事。根本你DPZ而家睇天下無敵,但2006年盈利已經倒退,難免畀人覺得係谷到最靚上市後就收皮。2007 2008生意更加重災區。搞到2012,搞利先返返2005水平。幾多年呀?7年。你有冇咁嘅耐性?把口而家事後梗係羨慕人買到10倍股,但個Q個隻嘢一個月唔升已經問乜事啦。一季盈利唔得就話公司唔掂要沽貨啦。更唔好講,一個金融海嘯打埋嚟,兩隻都一年跌六成啦。
然後講好老土嘅嘢,複利的威利,保險L成日同你講。你見呢啲咩股王,都係講緊一年 廿幾%回報,已經係17年升幾十倍。一來你見到Time is your friend,日子有功。但一年20%易唔易?梗係難啦!極難呀!所以唔該你調整返你啲期望,唔好講埋啲「我唔貪心希望年年穩定20%回報就得」。呢個世界年年穩定嘅回報,係美債,1.5%.或者iBond可以有兩三厘(但買唔得多)。同樣地,出面嗰啲友同你講「目標一年三四成回報」,你信我嘅我就祝君好運。不過人就係鍾意聽大話,自欺欺人。
仲有17年嚟,GOOGL CAGR25%,1蚊變44蚊。DPZ CAGR 22%,1蚊變30蚊。見唔見到爭幾咁遠?呢啲亦係複利的威力,你個回報一年爭少少,拉長咗就爭好遠。
CAGR爭幾個%,十幾年就拉開好多。做人都係。以前都寫過,順境時我跑贏你少少,逆境時我冇你咁大鑊,幾個周期就拉開晒了。
最後留意,GOOGL「頭尾」純利升咗27.5倍,但每股盈利只係升23倍。點解?因為股數多咗。留意唔係上市時,係後來再發的新股。因乜?獎勵啲工程師啦,老細啦,仲有收購。所以你見股數都多咗30%,雖然近年已經係縮緊,因為做回購。相反,DPZ呢?股數差不多年年縮,而家係當年嘅六成左右。所以你見到,純利4.5倍,但每股盈利差不多8倍—而影響股價嘅,係後者。
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月頭訂最抵!2021比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費80,半年已1600人訂! 畀年費仲有85折
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同時也有6部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過4萬的網紅Miharu Kenshin,也在其Youtube影片中提到,"Another pharaoh we need to fight and we learn new thing from this episode , and this afterlife is really bae-utiful ubisoft really put good work for ...
nerd vs geek 在 GIGAZINE Facebook 的最讚貼文
単純に「オタク」とするのはちょっと違う「Geek(ギーク)」と「Nerd(ナード)」(2012)
https://gigazine.net/news/20120105-geek-vs-nerd/
nerd vs geek 在 Miharu Kenshin Youtube 的最讚貼文
"Another pharaoh we need to fight and we learn new thing from this episode , and this afterlife is really bae-utiful ubisoft really put good work for this dlc."
Don't forget to subscribe for more gameplay news and more, and HIT the like button and share this with your geek friends :D
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Stay safe guys and be geek forever ❤
Miharu
nerd vs geek 在 Miharu Kenshin Youtube 的最讚貼文
"This is it the final fight with aloy vs hades , may the truth win"
i just want to say thank you for everyone that been here with me since day one i really appreciate it thank u so much i cant wait for what's next :)
Don't forget to subscribe for more HORIZON ZERO DAWN and more, and HIT the like button and share this with your geek friends :D
Follow me on social media ;
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Stay safe guys and be geek forever ❤
Miharu ❤
nerd vs geek 在 Miharu Kenshin Youtube 的最讚貼文
"Actually i've been playing a lot like a lottt of dragon age so my control with horizon kinda awkward but i still have that skill to kill the thunderjaw haha cause in the end i still love this game so much haha"
Hi Geeks, i hope you guys are doing fine 'cause this geek is doing fine ^.^ *
Don't forget to subscribe for more HORIZON ZERO DAWN and more, and HIT the like button and share this with your geek friends :D
Follow me on social media ;
@miharukenshin - twitter
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Stay safe guys and be geek forever ❤
Miharu ❤