【#新聞點評】北京會動用解放軍嗎？香港不是89年的天安門，也不是西藏、新疆和南蒙古。解放軍一步出軍營，美國將立即取消《香港政策法》，香港國際金融中心地位隨即毀於一旦，北京將失去香港這個最重要的境外投資來源地（香港每年佔中國 FDI 總數六至七成）、上巿集資地（2018年中國企業在香港上市集資IPO金額高達35萬億美元）、銀行貸款來源地（2018 年香港各銀行對中國大陸銀行和非銀行客戶的淨債權總額高達 7,130 億元港幣）和債券融資平台（2018年中國企業在香港發行的美元債券總額高達723 億美元）—— 北京深知這些龐大的金融資本利益，至今仍無法透過上海這個中國（而不是國際）金融中心來提供。當北京早已受困於中美貿易戰、資金鏈日益脆弱之時，香港國際金融中心地位之一髮，足以牽動中共政權之全身穩定。換言之，解放軍出營之日，就是中港攬炒之時。
Will Beijing deploy PLA? Hong Kong is not Tiananmen in 1989, also not Tibet, Xinjiang and South Mongolia. Once PLA is deployed, the US will immediately abolish US-HK Policy Act, Hong Kong will lose its status as an international financial centre and then Beijing will lose its largest source of inward direct investment (usually constituting 60 to 70 percent of China’s FDI), the major listing place for Chinese companies (a total of 1,146 H-shares, Red-chips and Mainland private enterprises have been listed in Hong Kong’s main board in 2018), the important source of bank loans (in 2018 the total amount of Hong Kong banks’ net claims on bank and nonbank customers in China exceeded HKD713 billion) and the crucial platform for bond financing (in 2018 the total amount of SU bonds issued by Chinese companies in Hong Kong exceeded USD72.3 billion) —— Beijing knows it clearly that such enormous financial interests could NOT be provided by Shanghai which is just a Chinese (but not international) financial centre. When Chinese economy is on a downward spiral and increasingly facing a capital outflow crisis, the stability of the CCP regime hinges upon Hong Kong’s financial centre. In other words, once PLA is deployed, Hong Kong and China will be “burned” together.
▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
香港在中美新冷戰：自由世界前哨？紅色中國前哨？／方志恒
https://bit.ly/2K5XGHn
Hong Kong and the US-China New Cold War／Brian C. H. Fong
https://bit.ly/2HMt7El
#香港人 #反送中 #一國兩制 #香港自治 #新冷戰 #香港政策法 #香港人權民主法
#Hongkonger #NoExtradition #OCTS #HongKongAutonomy #NewColdWar #HKHRDA #StandWithHongKong
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