市場現在到底想要好消息還是壞消息呢
ADP剛公布八月的就業數字
遠低於市場原本的預期
原預估增加60萬
結果僅新增37.4萬
上個月增加32.6萬
所以可以知道就業仍是在緩步復甦的
主要的成長仍是以休閒和酒店為主
只是Delta病毒的影響仍在
教育和健康服務的就業增加5.98萬
小型企業相比於大企業則增數較少
鮑威爾在上周的演說中提到Delta帶來的不確定性
對於是否開始向緊縮邁進
除了通膨水準外
就業市場也是重要參考指標
這禮拜五有非農公布
我記得上月ADP也是大幅低於預期
結果非農開出來完全相反
就業好或不好
關係緊縮是否啟動
也會牽動股市反應搂
反正該做好的準備先做
風險與資金配置上不要承擔過大的壓力
現階段也不會有太積極的增減倉
還是有公司公布優於預期的財報
像昨天的Zoom(ZM)與CrowdStrike(CRWD)
ZM直接殺了17%
今天盤前還算冷靜
CRWD則是仍保持在70%的營收增速
但盤前下跌3%
今天專欄先發了一篇ZM的文章
討論了公司這次的財報與前景展望
很多時候大家看財報優於預期
股價卻沒有上漲反應
市場給予公司的估值總是用相對的概念去看的
即便是絕對的好
也不一定滿足投資人的需求
而是相對於之前是否更好
與市場上絕大多數的共識來比是否更好
短線投資人看重動能
過去的催化劑被淡化
就必須找新的催化劑注入
不管是新產品或新管理層
只要可以增加營收來源
變有機會提高估值
否則價格往往回歸均值
回到成長發展的軌道上
這時長期投資人看好股價
認為公司仍有長遠發展
反而可以觀察是否有買進機會
像ARK也在昨天又進了ZM
或許就是看好公司未來建構一個產品系的願景
這樣講講我覺得最近寫的Peloton(PTON)
也有點異曲同工之妙XD
讀者對Zoom(ZM)有興趣
可參考留言文章
pton財報 在 [新聞] Peloton Earnings Disappointed - 看板Stock - 批踢踢實業坊 的推薦與評價
原文標題：Peloton Earnings Disappointed. Another Pandemic Play Sinks.
原文連結：https://reurl.cc/52VdZ7
發布時間：Nov. 4, 2021 5:57 pm
原文內容：
Peloton Interactive was the latest pandemic-play stock casualty
Peloton Reports Earnings Today. The Stock Faces Stiff Headwinds.
The unraveling of the stay-at-home trade has put pressure on Peloton's stock,
setting up a pivotal earnings report later today.
Continue reading this earnings season. Shares are diving in extended trading
after the at-home fitness firm reported a wider-than-expected net loss for
the September quarter, and cut its full fiscal-year outlook.
Peloton reported a fiscal-first-quarter net loss of $376 million, or $1.25 a
share. Total revenue grew 6% year over year to $805.2 million. Wall Street’s
consensus estimate called for a net loss of $1.10 a share on revenue of
$808.7 million, according to FactSet
The company, which sells bikes and treadmills that pair with $39.99 a month
subscriptions, said average monthly workouts per connected fitness
subscription dropped to 16.6 from 20.7 a year ago. Investors watch that
metric for signs of engagement.
In after-hours trading, Peloton stock is down 25% to $64.59, about a third of
its 52-week intraday high of $171.09, set in January. The company joins Roku
(ROKU) and Chegg (CHGG) as popular pandemic plays that are now disappointing
investors with reports this week.
Peloton now expects the 2022 fiscal year to end in June with 3.35 million to
3.45 million connected fitness subscribers, down from a prior forecast of
3.63 million. Its outlook for fiscal-year revenue ranges from $4.4 billion to
$4.8 billion, down from a prior forecast of $5.4 billion.
For the fiscal second quarter, which includes the all-important holiday
season, the company expects to hit connected fitness subscribers of between
2.8 million to 2.85 million. It expects revenue in the range from $1.1
billion to $1.2 billion for the quarter, below Wall Street’s consensus
estimate of $1.49 billion, according to FactSet. The company said that so
far, the fiscal second quarter has been softer than expected.
“With the benefit of adequate inventories and order-to-delivery windows that
are now back to pre-pandemic levels, we expect a healthy holiday selling
season,” the company added in a prepared statement. “Our forecast assumes
unit sales modestly ahead of last year’s Q2 levels, driven by growing
consumer interest in the Connected Fitness category and a resumption of our
marketing and promotional activity.”
心得:
PTON 財報再度炸裂
盤後大崩 -30%
我覺得這新聞標題下的很好
最近雖然美股很瘋
但是有些去年起漲的疫情受益股已經開始回到地球了
那些高點出現在今年3月以前
之後反彈也軟軟的特別危險
顯然市場早有預期
最近 Q3 財報開出來都殺一根大的
Z -25%
PTON -30% (目前盤後)
PENN -21%
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.169.32.160 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1636070726.A.441.html
... <看更多>