關於 russia interest rate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

【停滯型通膨即將來臨嗎？】

我認為我們即將在一兩年內經歷全球大部分地區的停滯型通膨（stagflation）。我認為投資的方向也會因此微調。

1. 濫發通貨的後果比我們想像中嚴重

我在《後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境》一文中預測的通貨膨脹現象，已經從資本市場、房地產市場逐漸拓展到美國一般消費市場。

從媒體報導或社群網站上的照片記錄看來，普遍性的消費商品價格上漲已然發生。（見圖）

如同諾貝爾經濟學獎得主F. A. Hayek曾以蜂蜜形容貨幣的流動，在注入貨幣的過程，會造成某部分價格上漲，然後才慢慢拓展出去。而以當今Fed的貨幣干預手段，我們可以看到美國國債利率的下跌與股票、衍生性金融商品市場的價格上漲為常見的起點。而最後，亦如另一位諾貝爾獎得主M. Friedman所言：「通貨膨脹始終是貨幣現象」。

我相信讀者也在許多財經媒體上看到有關通貨膨脹的警告或討論了。

經濟學家Joseph Carson指出，美國在1970年代的CPI統計是包含房地產價格，因此1979年CPI成長11.3％中有相當比例是因為當年房地產價格激增。但現今的統計卻排除了房地產價格。而新冠疫情之後美國房地產價格因濫印貨幣而飆漲，故即便美國官方公佈的過去12個月CPI增長5.4%，但如果採取1970年代的標準計入房地產價格因素，則實際CPI漲幅應該是兩位數！

這也表示，Fed聲稱通貨膨脹只是暫時且不嚴重的論點，很可能是基於刻意被低估的統計方法。另一個值得一提的，是Fed自疫情封城後每個月都買入$400億美元房貸為基礎的金融證券（mortgage-backed securities），但我們也都清楚2008年美國金融危機的一大肇因就是美國聯邦政府轄下兩個專門替房貸信用擔保的房利美、房地美機構（Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac），其相當於政府干預市場的行為扭曲並蒙蔽了市場對真實風險的判斷。

更值得警醒的是如顧問公司MBS Highway指出美國Fed實質買入的房貸基礎證券金額恐怕高達$1000億美元每月，硬生生人為壓低房貸利率0.25~0.35%。

綜合來看，Fed刻意濫發通貨不但眾所周知，很可能實際規模超越我們理解。而美國政府的CPI統計卻因排除房地產與股票等資產，無法正確地理解真實通膨現狀。

2. 政府引發通膨並非萬靈丹 -- 菲利普曲線早已失效

美國上班族實質週薪相較去年同期收入下降了1.7%，製造業員工更是下降了2.2%。

然而根據總體經濟學的菲利普曲線與相關理論認為，通貨膨脹引發的實質薪資下降理論上應該可以提高就業。可事實上我們看到的是五月份高達900萬份職位仍空懸找不到勞工。根據華爾街日報報導，六月份失業率5.9%竟仍高於新冠疫情前的3.5%。

為何如此？早幾年我已經多次撰文談過，菲利普曲線只是基於紐西蘭某一小短時期的統計數字，從經濟理論上就存在內在矛盾與瑕疵，根本不是個普遍可適用的通論，頂多算是個「特例」。因此我們常看到經濟學家質疑此曲線失效實屬正常。

從制度經濟學角度觀察，貨幣政策的確可以引發通貨膨脹造成實質薪資下降，但工作機會與適任員工二者的媒合本身並非不存在交易費用，這意味著並非實質薪資下降馬上需求曲線丟進來，交易量（即就業人數）立即增大。

美國Fed的達拉斯分行4月份報告就指出：30.9％因疫情失業的勞工並未重新回到他們原本的舊工作，此數字還高過去年7月的19.8％。

根據美國人力網站ZipRecruiter近日研究發現幾個目前美國就業市場現象：

a. 本來在娛樂或餐飲旅館行業的就業人士，被疫情的強迫停業嚇怕了，高達70%欲轉行，但多數卻因為行業專業不同難以順利轉換跑道。

b. 過去幾個月來新開出的職缺與失業人數竟然同步上升。

c. 因為疫情許多人跑去城市郊區甚至鄉村避難，結果開出職缺的區域與求職者所在區域出現明顯分離。

d. 同樣因為疫情封城管制造成的後果，紐約市區星巴克的今年五月來店人數相較兩年前同期下降65%，工作機會也隨之發生改變。

e. 每週$400美元的失業補助讓許多失業者不急於找工作。溫蒂漢堡、必勝客、Applebee's、Taco Bell等知名連鎖餐廳提供額外的獎金補貼也依然找不到員工。

而這一些因交易費用增加產生的就業市場成交量下降，從制度經濟學角度來看難以依靠貨幣政策改善，而是必須透過放寬就業市場法規來協助降低交易費用。可是我們看到卻是迷信政府管制的新一任Biden政府。

3. Biden總統的行政命令

今年7月初美國總統Biden簽署了一系列行政命令，新增了橫跨農業、健康產業、物流、交通、科技產業、勞工...等各種管制，聲稱可以透過政府干預帶來產業競爭狀態的改善與消費者/勞工權益。

我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏：“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” ... “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.”

經濟學認為競爭無處不在，而不同的侷限條件會導致競爭的態樣改變。某些侷限條件下的競爭會有較高的租值消散，某些則較少。純粹市價競爭的自由市場是理論上完全無租值消散的一種競爭態樣。

因此，政府管制往往帶來的只是更多租值消散與尋租空間。誠如雷根總統說過：「政府本身就是問題，而不是解答。」

所以我們不難發現試圖以更多管制措施、更多政府干預來「使市場健康競爭」的Biden政府，必然是一場徒勞無功且弊病叢生的白工。只是所增加的交易費用，依然是由美國人民來承擔，這對通貨膨脹烏雲蓋頂的底層百姓而言，恐怕雪上加霜。

還記得中美貿易戰多篇文章我均指出，從正確的經濟學邏輯角度來看，時任Trump政府對中國的各種關稅或非關稅貿易壁壘，最終的成本承擔者只會是美國消費者。

我們看到前任Fed主席，現任美國財政部部長Janet L. Yellen也於7月中旬接受紐約時報採訪時鬆口承認Trump時代對中國的關稅障礙結果是在傷害美國消費者。（"Tariffs are taxes on consumers. In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, ..."）

這樣的錯誤，美國政府百年來犯了無數次。例如我們曾談過Milton Friedman 與George Stigler 兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主共同撰寫的知名論文「Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem」以1906年甫大地震後225,000人無家可歸的舊金山市為研究對象，發現當時無力管制的市政府放任市場自由定價，結果是多數人很快找到新家，即便是十分貧窮者，也有與之對應的廉價房屋提供（1906 advertisement “Six-room house and bath, with 2 additional rooms in basement having fire-places, nicely furnished; fine piano; … $45."）

但到了1946年，舊金山因人口增長而推出租金管制，明明房屋短缺嚴重性遠不如1906年大地震後的慘狀，但卻發生多數人租不到房子的窘境！

根據二位經濟學大神研究，1906年每一個想租屋的人，大約有10間房子供選擇；但租金管制後的1946年，每375個求租客對應10間房子供給。

更嚴重的實例還有1970年代石油危機期間，美國政府出台的各種價格與非價格管制干預措施的結果，反而更抬高國內石化產品價格，加劇石化產品短缺現象，不但各地加油站大排長龍，不少妙齡女子以身體為代價與加油站老闆員工上床以取得汽油的新聞不絕於耳。

因此我推斷，美國如不放寬對中國的制裁，只會加重自身通膨惡果，同時惡化真實失業狀況。

一方面，管制會加重人民負擔提高交易費用這點已經敘明不再重複；另一方面，中國是美國過去二十年瘋狂印鈔卻未引發嚴重通貨膨脹現象的最大助力。

這點不僅我這樣看，如經濟學名家張五常教授、前任美國聯準會主席Alan Greenspan於2005年美國國會聽證會發言，乃至於經濟學人雜誌2004年10月份的特別報告「Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates」也做如是想，且不說還有許多經濟學家也持一樣的觀點。

誠如Greenspan於前述聽證會上發言指出，對中國貿易制裁結果必然導致美國民生物價上漲與人民生活品質受損，但卻無任何經濟學理與客觀證據支撐政客謬論 -- 制裁中國並無法改善美國就業率。

可即便Greenspan早在2005年國會上已言者諄諄，顯然後來十幾年美國政客們是聽者藐藐。因為政客利益往往不等同於人民利益，這是民主國家最大的侷限條件。

回過頭看，Biden政府上台以來，不但沒有放寬Trump時代對中國的諸多基於污衊指控而實施的貿易制裁，甚至有變本加厲的態勢。但如此舉措對美國自身其實極為不利。行文至此我們已經可以確定實質經濟成長停滯與通貨膨脹雙擊的「停滯性通膨」將來臨。

4. 歐美國家與日本普遍高負債結果只能以提高稅率或利率為結果。

所謂的「現代貨幣理論（MMT）」根本是一套無視成本的胡扯，違背了「凡有選擇必有代價」的經濟學最基礎侷限。各國瘋狂印鈔當然最後會出現通貨膨脹，不負責任的政府只能以提高稅率或提高利率為代價。

只是每個國家面對的侷限條件不同，使得代價發生的時程或「閥值」有所不同。

通貨膨脹現象說到底是個「貨幣增長率對上經濟成長率」的過程 -- 當貨幣增長率追不上實質經濟成長率，通貨收縮會發生；當貨幣增長率超過實質經濟成長率，則通貨膨脹會發生。注意，我這裡指的「實質經濟成長率」是「真實」的經濟成長，而不是GDP、凱因斯經濟學那套錯誤的觀念。這部分我以前就為文批評過，有興趣的讀者請自行查找。

故，同樣因應新冠疫情而寬鬆貨幣的俄羅斯，其面對的國際經貿環境不比美國日本，自然很快就承受不住通膨壓力於近日宣布一口氣調升利率100個基點至6.5%。（見圖）

美國聯邦政府2021年政府負債$28.5兆美元，是GDP的128.31%。僅利息支出達$4025億美元，佔年度預算5.3%，佔聯邦稅金收入9.8%。如果美國無法成功抑制通貨膨脹，則隨之而來的利率飆升將造成美國財政風險。畢竟市場利率始終是由「無風險利率+風險貼水+預期通貨膨脹率」組成。

我們可以注意到1980年代初期，美國國債淨利息支出增加的時期，其相對應的10年國債利率也大幅攀升。

同樣地，在高通膨率的1980年代初期（藍線），市場利率也曾一度飆升至近20%（黑色虛線）。（見圖）

再看看目前世界主要經濟體的債務狀況（見圖）

新冠疫情之後，世界主要國家的債務風險只增不減。

英國經濟學家，前英格蘭銀行與英國貨幣政策顧問Charles Goodhart警告：「中國帶給全世界的經濟紅利若因其人口結構老化而逐漸消失，則世界必將面對通貨膨脹衝擊。」（"...as aging populations in China and other nations spend more of their savings, average interest rates will rise higher than governments have bargained for...China’s greatest contribution to global growth is now past. This great demographic reversal will lead to a return of inflation.”）

通膨來襲加上實質生產力成長受損的停滯性通膨夾擊下，歐洲與日本等主要經濟體不得不面對更棘手的債務危機。這些國家未來政治與社會的動盪將會是常見的現象。

美元20多年來快速通貨成長下而無明顯國內通膨的一個重要因素，在於其做為世界最主要國際貿易交易結算貨幣的角色，使得世界整體經濟成長大於等於美元通貨成長時，通膨率不易上升。就如Greenspan 2005年在美國國會作證所闡釋，中國作為1990年代以來美國成長最快且體量非常大的貿易夥伴，中國對美元的需求本身就保證了美元的購買力，同時物美價廉的中國製造產品也大幅壓低了美國國內物價增長率。

上個世代扮演此角色的是日本，因此我們也看到日本與中國分別是目前美國國債最大持有國。（Foreign governments owned US$7.053 trillion of US debt in November, including China's US$1.063 trillion, and Japan's US$1.260 trillion, US Treasury data showed. ）

然後在此次疫情重創且血虧的奧運會之後，其逐漸衰退的整體生產力與相當惡化的債務狀況，我懷疑日本還有多少殘存力量支撐美元。

因此我們不難理解為何美國新任Biden政府上台後汲汲營營地尋求與中國高層會面。

結論

人民幣國際化的推進與中美經貿脫鉤二者都會帶來美元實質購買力的衰退與美國通膨惡化。因此美國政府如要避免財政危機，必須做到二件事：a. 解除貿易壁壘，尤其是針對中國的貿易制裁；b. 確保中國繼續願意大額購買美國債券以及使用美元為主要國際貿易結算貨幣。

中國數字人民幣推展與歐洲也開始積極發展數字貨幣的背後，都是直接對美元在國際貿易、金融體系的競爭。一帶一路若越成功也越能協助人民幣國際化。

這些都是美國非常不樂見。因此我們可以看到美國不斷在造謠污衊中國的一帶一路與科技後門監聽等事項，就算明明被抓包踢爆監聽全世界的是美國自己。

然而如同我多次解釋過，美式民主制度下政客的利益與人民利益往往不一致。當鼓動對中仇視有利於競選時，美國政客很難選擇與中國和平、更深度交流的道路；當增加更多政府管制干預與有利於尋租時，政客也是毫不猶豫地如此選擇。所以我們會在未來相當長時間看到精神分裂的美國 -- 又不希望中國在世界經濟影響力增加而欲打壓，但自己又不能真的因打壓中國與之脫鉤。

這種人格分裂狀態恐怕未來十幾年都會是美國政壇主旋律。

因此站在投資人的角度，我選擇把財產壓在美國利率終將上漲這一大方向上。

文章連結：
https://tinyurl.com/58hauwkf

參考資料：

WSJ, "How Much Are Prices Up? Here’s One Family’s Day-to-Day Expenses." July 9, 2021

WSJ, "Job Openings Are at Record Highs. Why Aren’t Unemployed Americans Filling Them?" July 9, 2021

WSJ, "Governments World-Wide Gorge on Record Debt, Testing New Limits" July 12, 2021

范一飞, "关于数字人民币M0定位的政策含义分析" 2020年09月15日

元毓, "宏觀經濟學的尷尬—菲利普曲線死了嗎？" May 8, 2018

NYT, "Yellen Says China Trade Deal Has ‘Hurt American Consumers’" July 16, 2021

WSJ, "Biden Targets Big Business in Sweeping Executive Order to Spur Competition" July 9, 2021

WSJ, "The 2021 Olympics Are Turning Into a $20 Billion Bust for Japan" July 20, 2021

Bank for International Settlement, "CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system" BIS Annual Economic Report | 23 June 2021

Barron's, "The Housing Market Is on Fire. The Fed Is Stoking the Flames." July 23, 2021

Barron's, "Disco Inferno: The U.S. Could Be Headed Back to ’70s-Style Stagflation" July 16, 2021

Reuters, "Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014" July 23, 2021

Milton Friedman & George Stigler, "Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem" September 1946

Alan Greenspan, "FRB: Testimony" June 23, 2005

The Economist, "Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates" Oct 2nd 2004

[時事英文] 各國如何面對新冠疫情?

讓我最有感觸的一句:

"The rise of populism has exacerbated the problem by reducing the incentives of countries to cooperate. "

「民粹主義的興起減少了各國合作的意願，使問題更加嚴重。」

—NY Times

★★★★★★★★

In Frankfurt, the president of the European Central Bank warned that the coronavirus could trigger an economic crash as dire as that of 2008. In Berlin, the German chancellor warned the virus could infect two-thirds of her country’s population. In London, the British prime minister rolled out a nearly $40 billion rescue package to cushion his economy from the shock.

1. trigger an economic crash 引發經濟崩潰
2. dire 嚴重的；危急的
3. roll out 推出
4. rescue package 救助計劃
5. to cushion sth from… 對（某事物的影響或力量）起緩衝作用

在法蘭克福，歐洲央行行長警告說，冠狀病毒可能引發與2008年一樣嚴重的經濟崩潰。在柏林，德國總理警告說，病毒可能導致該國三分之二的人口感染。在倫敦，英國首相推出了將近400億美元的一系列救助計劃，以緩解經濟受到的衝擊。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

As the toll of those afflicted by the virus continued to soar and financial markets from Tokyo to New York continued to swoon, world leaders are finally starting to find their voices about the gravity of what is now officially a pandemic.

6. the toll of… 的傷亡；損失；破壞
7. the death toll 死亡人數
8. afflict 使痛苦；使苦惱；折磨
9. swoon 低迷*
10. find their voices about 願意開口談及
11. the gravity of …的嚴重性

隨著感染者的死亡人數持續飆升，從東京到紐約的金融市場持續低迷，世界各國領導人終於開始談及這場已正式定性為大流行病的疫情的嚴重性。

*http://bit.ly/3b7PZK8

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Yet it remains less a choir than a cacophony — a dissonant babble of politicians all struggling, in their own way, to cope with the manifold challenges posed by the virus, from its crushing burden on hospitals and health care workers to its economic devastation and rising death toll.

12. cacophony 刺耳嘈雜的聲音；雜音
13. a dissonant babble of... 七嘴八舌的...
14. manifold challenges 多種多樣的挑戰
15. economic devastation 經濟崩解

然而，與其說是合唱，這更像一種刺耳的喧囂——一群七嘴八舌的政客用各自的方式努力應對這種病毒所帶來的各種挑戰，從超負荷的醫院和醫護人員到崩潰的經濟和與日俱增的死亡人數。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

The choir also lacks a conductor, a role played through most of the post-World War II era by the United States.

這個合唱團還欠缺指揮，在二戰戰後的大部分時間裡，這個角色是由美國扮演的。

President Trump has failed to work with other leaders to fashion a common response, preferring to promote travel bans and his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts. Mr. Trump’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has taken to calling it the “Wuhan virus,” vilifying the country where it originated and complicating efforts to coordinate a global response.

16. lack (v.) 缺少，缺乏*
17. to fashion a common response 形成一致的回應
18. travel ban 旅行禁令
19. take to sth 開始從事；形成…的習慣
20. vilify 詆毀，誣衊；醜化；貶低
21. complicate 使複雜化；使更難懂；使更麻煩

川普總統未能與其他領導人合作形成一致的回應，他寧願推動旅行禁令和他的邊境牆，而不是他自己的醫學專家的科學建議。川普的國務卿邁克·龐皮歐(Mike Pompeo)把它叫做「武漢病毒」，醜化其發源國，使協調全球響應的工作更加艱難。

*lack, lack of, lacking: http://bit.ly/33LrOhw

★★★★★★★★★★★★

週三，川普總統在白宮會見了銀行家，討論如何應對冠狀病毒。

The same denigration of science and urge to block outsiders has characterized leaders from China to Iran, as well as right-wing populists in Europe, which is sowing cynicism and leaving people uncertain of who to believe. Far from trying to stamp out the virus, strongmen like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia have seized on the upheaval it is causing as cover for steps to consolidate their power.

22. the denigration of science 對科學的詆毀
23. characterize (v.) 是…的特徵；為…所特有
24. right-wing populists 右翼民粹主義者
25. sow a seed of 播下了…的種子
26. cynicism 犬儒主義；憤世嫉俗
27. stamp sth out 消除，消滅
28. upheaval 動盪
29. consolidate their power 鞏固自己的力量

從中國到伊朗的領導人，乃至歐洲的右翼民粹主義者，都有同樣的對科學的詆毀和對外人的排斥，這播下了疑神疑鬼的種子，讓人們不知道該相信誰。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普丁(Vladimir V. Putin)和沙烏地阿拉伯王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)等強人領袖並沒有去試圖消滅病毒，而是趁機以其引發的動盪為掩護，鞏固自己的力量。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Yet it is too simple to lay all this at Mr. Trump’s door, or on world leaders collectively. Part of the problem is simply the fiendish nature of the pathogen.

30. lay sth at sb's door 將…歸咎於（某人）
31. fiendish 惡魔般的；殘忍的
32. pathogen 病原體

然而，將一切推到川普身上，或一股腦推到各國領導人身上，都過於簡單了。部分問題實際上源於病原體的殘忍特性。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Coronavirus has resisted the tools that countries have brought to bear against previous global scourges. Mysterious in its transmission and relentless in its spread, it has led countries to try wildly divergent responses. The lack of common standards on testing, on the cancellation of public gatherings and on quarantines have deepened the anxiety of people and eroded confidence in their leaders.

33. to bear against 抵禦
34. global scourges 全球災禍
35. wildly divergent responses 截然不同的應對方式
36. quarantine 隔離
37. eroded confidence 削弱對…的信心

各國為抵禦先前的全球災禍而使用的工具，被冠狀病毒一一擊敗。詭異的感染方式，持續不懈的傳播，已經導致各國不得不嘗試各種截然不同的應對方式。在病毒測試、取消公共聚會和隔離方法上缺乏一致的標準，這加劇了人們的焦慮，並削弱了他們對領導者的信心。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

The simultaneous shocks to supply and demand — shuttered iPhone factories in China; empty gondolas in Venice; and passengers abandoning cruises, hotels and airlines everywhere else — is a new phenomenon that may not respond to the weapons government wielded against the dislocation that followed the September 2001 terrorist attacks and the financial crisis of 2008.

38. simultaneous shocks 同時衝擊
39. supply and demand 供需
40. the weapons wielded against... 為抵禦...所鍛造的武器

供給和需求在同一時刻受到衝擊——被關閉的中國iPhone工廠；威尼斯空無一人的貢多拉；以及其他地方旅客放棄前往的郵輪、旅館和航班——政府在2001年9月的恐怖襲擊以及2008年金融危機後為抵禦混亂所鍛造的武器，恐怕難以用來對付這種新的現象。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

“The nature of this crisis is qualitatively different than the one in 2008 because the traditional tools are not as effective,” said Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Even if the U.S. took a leadership role, the traditional playbook would not be all that relevant here.”

41. the nature of …的性質
42. be qualitatively different 有本質區別
43. playbook 方案

「這次危機的性質，與2008年危機有本質區別，因為傳統手段的效果不佳，」外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)主席理查德·N·哈斯(Richard N. Haass)說。「即使美國發揮領導作用，傳統方案用在現在的情況沒有多大意義。」

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Britain, for example, won praise for its robust economic response, which, in addition to billions of pounds for hospitals and workers sidelined by illness, included a sharp interest rate cut by the Bank of England.

44. won praise for 贏得讚譽
45. robust economic response 強勁的經濟反應
46. in addition to 此外
47. be sidelined by illness 因疾病而停工
48. a sharp interest rate cut大幅降息

例如，英國因其強勁的經濟應對而贏得讚譽，他們不僅為醫院和因疾病而停工的工人提供了數十億英鎊撥款，還包括英格蘭銀行的大幅降息。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Yet stocks in London still tumbled, if not as steeply as on Wall Street, where investors brushed off Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s proposal to allow Americans to delay paying their income taxes, which he claimed would pump $200 billion into the economy.

49. tumbled （價值）暴跌，驟降
50. steeply 徒峭地；險峻地
51. brush off 漠視，不理睬

然而，倫敦股市仍然下跌，儘管跌幅不及華爾街。面對財政部長史蒂芬·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)提出的允許美國人緩交所得稅的提議，華爾街投資人不為所動，馬努欽聲稱此舉將為經濟注入2000億美元。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Mr. Trump’s other big idea, a cut in the payroll tax, was pronounced a “non-starter” by House Democrats, who scrambled instead to introduce legislation to provide financial help to patients, workers and families affected by the fast-moving epidemic and speed it to a House vote on Thursday.

52. payroll tax 薪金稅
53. non-starter 無成功希望的人（或想法、計劃）
54. House Democrats 眾議院民主黨議員
55. scramble to 爭搶(去做)

川普先生的另一個大想法是削減薪金稅，眾議院民主黨議員宣布這「不可能」，他們慌忙提出立法，在財務上幫助受迅速傳播的流行病影響的患者、工人和家庭，並且快速提交至週四的眾議院投票。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

To Mr. Haass, the intense focus on limiting the economic blow was understandable, given the carnage in the markets, but premature. He said countries needed to put their energy into slowing and mitigating the spread of the virus before they embarked on fiscal programs to repair the economic damage.

56. carnage （尤指戰爭中的）大屠殺，殘殺
57. carnage in the markets 市場的慘狀
58. premature 過早的；不成熟的；倉促的
59. mitigate 減緩
60. embarked on sth 開始，著手做（新的或重要的事情）
61. fiscal programs 財政計劃

哈斯認為，考慮到市場的慘狀，集中精力抑制經濟衝擊是可以理解的，但為時過早。他說，各國在開始實施財政計劃以修復經濟損失之前，需要投入精力以減慢並緩和病毒的傳播。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

The trouble is that, with few exceptions, their efforts have been hapless. In the United States, the delay in developing coronavirus test kits and the scarcity of tests has made it impossible for officials, even weeks after the first cases appeared in the country, to get a true picture of the scale of the outbreak.

62. hapless幸運的；不愉快的
63. the scarcity of …的缺乏
64. the scale of the outbreak 疫情的真實規模

問題是，除了少數例外，他們的努力都沒有什麼好結果。在美國，由於開發冠狀病毒檢測工具的進度遲緩，以及檢測手段的缺乏，官員們甚至在出現本國第一例病例數週後仍無法了解疫情的真實規模。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

In hard-hit Italy, quarrels broke out between politicians and medical experts over whether the authorities were testing too many people in Lombardy, inflating the infection figures and fueling panic in the public. Italy’s response could be weakened further by the anti-vaccination movement that was once embraced by the populist Five Star Movement, which took power in the last government.

65. hard-hit 受災嚴重的
66. inflate 抬高；誇大
67. fueling panic加劇恐慌
68. anti-vaccination movement 反疫苗運動
69. populist 民粹主義政黨
70. took power 執政

在受災嚴重的義大利，政界人士和醫學專家爭論當局是否在倫巴第對太多人進行測試，誇大感染人數，加劇公眾恐慌。義大利的反應可能會遭到反疫苗運動的進一步削弱。該運動曾受上屆執政的民粹主義政黨五星運動(Five Star Movement)的支持。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

義大利倫巴第地區是世界上受災最嚴重的地區之一，人們戴著口罩。

Even comparing one country’s case count to another’s is almost impossible, given the different testing procedures and diagnostic criteria around the world, said Dr. Chris Smith, a specialist in virology at the University of Cambridge.

71. testing procedures 檢測程序
72. diagnostic criteria 診斷標準

劍橋大學(University of Cambridge)病毒學專家克里斯·史密斯(Chris Smith)博士表示，考慮到世界各地不同的檢測程序和診斷標準，連對兩個國家的病例數進行比較幾乎都是不可能的。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

In the most extreme example, China’s case count skyrocketed when it began recording positives based on people’s symptoms, rather than a lab test, the method most countries are still using. But even lab tests might yield different results in different places, depending on the targets labs are using and the ways health workers collect and process specimens.

73. based on people’s symptom 根據某人癥狀
74. case count skyrocketed 病例數大幅飆升
75. yield different results 產生不同的結果

最極端的例子是，當中國開始根據癥狀而不是大多數國家仍在使用的實驗室檢測來計算確診病例時，病例數出現了大幅飆升。但即使是實驗室測試，不同的地方也可能產生不同的結果，這取決於實驗室使用的對象以及醫務人員收集和處理標本的方式。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

“Different countries are doing different things,” Dr. Smith said of the testing programs. “You’re not comparing apples to apples.”

「不同的國家正在做不同的事情，」史密斯談到測試項目時說。「這不是蘋果和蘋果之間的對比。」

The rise of populism has exacerbated the problem by reducing the incentives of countries to cooperate. European leaders, in a three-hour teleconference on Tuesday night, agreed to set up a 25 billion euro investment fund, or $28.1 billion, and to relax rules governing airlines to curb the economic fallout.

76. exacerbated the problem 使問題更加嚴重
77. the incentives of 誘因
78. teleconference 電話會議
79. curb the economic fallout 遏制經濟危機的影響

民粹主義的興起減少了各國合作的意願，使問題更加嚴重。歐洲領導人週二晚間舉行了三小時的電話會議，同意設立一個250億歐元（合1930億元人民幣）的投資基金，並放鬆對航空公司的監管，以遏制經濟危機的影響。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

But they failed to overcome national objections to sharing medical equipment like face masks and respirators, given that health issues are the responsibility of national governments. Germany, the Czech Republic and other countries have tightened export restrictions on this gear to keep it for their own citizens.

80. failed to overcome 未能克服
81. respirator 呼吸器
82. tightened export restrictions on… 加強了…的出口限制
83. gear （從事某活動的）裝備，用具，衣服

但他們未能克服各國對分享口罩和呼吸器等醫療器械的反對，因為健康問題是國家政府的責任。德國、捷克共和國等國家已經加強了對這些設備的出口限制，以便將其留給本國公民。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s warning that the virus would infect 60 percent to 70 percent of people in Germany — a figure she attributed to the “consensus among experts” — was the most forthright admission of the scale of the problem by any world leader. It was fully in character for a physicist-turned-politician, reinforcing her status as the liberal West’s foil to Mr. Trump.

84. attributed to 歸於
85. consensus among experts 專家共識
86. forthright （過於）坦誠的，直率的；直截了當的
87. reinforce 強化，加深，進一步證實（觀點、看法等）
88. the liberal West’s foil 自由主義西方世界中的對比
89. foil 陪襯物*

德國總理安哥拉·梅克爾(Angela Merkel)警告說，這種病毒將感染德國60%到70%的人——她稱這一數字來自「專家共識」——這是世界各國領導人對該問題嚴重性最坦率的承認態度。這完全符合從物理學家轉型為政治家的梅克爾的性格，令她進一步成為自由主義西方世界中川普的一個鮮明對比。

*http://bit.ly/3deYyVe

★★★★★★★★★★★★

“We will do whatever is needed,” she said. “We won’t ask every day, ‘What does this mean for our deficit?’”

90. deficit 赤字

「我們會竭盡所能，」她說。「我們不會每天都問，『這對我們的赤字有什麼影響?』」

Yet even Ms. Merkel’s position has been weakened by the resurgence of the far right in Germany. Germany rebuffed a request for medical equipment from Italy, only to see China offer the Italians an aid package that includes two million face masks and 100,000 respirators.

91. a resurgence of 復甦；復興；再次興起
92. far right 極右翼勢力
93. rebuff 斷然拒絕
94. only to do sth 不料卻，沒想到卻

然而，就連梅克爾的地位也被德國極右翼勢力的復甦削弱了。德國拒絕了義大利提供醫療器械的請求，中國卻向義大利提供了包括200萬隻口罩和10萬隻呼吸器在內的援助。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

In Britain, which left the European Union in January, there are already fears that the country will not have access to a vaccine, or will have to pay more for it than other European countries. Mr. Johnson’s government, which won its recent election on a populist-inflected platform of “Get Brexit Done,” is now struggling with how to communicate the risks of the outbreak to its public.

95. a vaccine 疫苗
96. platform 綱領，政綱，宣言

在今年1月脫離歐盟的英國，已經有人擔心該國將無法獲得疫苗，或者將不得不支付比其他歐洲國家更多的費用。強生的政府在最近的選舉中獲勝，憑藉的是受民粹主義影響的「完成脫歐」(Get Brexit Done)宣言。如今這個政府正在吃力地向民眾宣講疫情暴發的風險。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

The Johnson government has put a lot of stock in a so-called nudge unit in Downing Street that specializes in behavioral psychology. But in trying to calibrate its response to what it deemed people capable of processing, the government risked condescending to Britons, said John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for the northwest of England.

97. put a lot of stock in 投入了大量資金
98. so-called 所謂
99. nudge unit 哄勸部門
100. behavioral psychology 行為心理學
101. calibrate 判斷；劃分刻度，標定
102. deem 認為，視為；覺得
103. condescending 表現出高…一等的姿態的，帶有優越感地對待…的

強生政府在唐寧街設立了一個擅長行為心理學的所謂「哄勸」部門，為此投入了大量資金。但前英格蘭西北部地區公共衛生主任約翰·阿什頓(John Ashton)說，政府在判斷人們的接受限度，並以這個限度為依據來制定自己的應對措施，這可能是在用一種假惺惺的屈就方式對待英國人民。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

Britain has only recently started publishing broad breakdowns of where people are contracting the virus. Mr. Ashton said they should be giving much more detailed information, as in Hong Kong, which has published building-level maps of patients who have gotten sick, when they were there and how they contracted the virus.

英國直到最近才開始公布感染髮生的具體地點。阿什頓說，他們應該提供更詳細的信息，就像香港一樣。香港公布了具體到建築的患者地圖，並提供他們在那裡的時間和感染病毒的方式。

“I think it’s patronizing — they need to keep the public fully in the picture,” Mr. Ashton said. “You have to treat the public as adults, instead of keeping them in the dark. That’s where you get rumor and hysteria. They actually create panic by not being open with people.”

104. patronizing 屈尊俯就的；自以為高人一等的
105. keep sb in the picture 使（某人）了解情況
106. keeping sb in the dark 蒙在鼓裡
107. rumor and hysteria 謠言和歇斯底里

「我認為這是一種哄人的姿態——他們需要讓公眾充分了解情況，」阿什頓說。「你必須像對待成年人一樣對待公眾，而不是把他們蒙在鼓裡。謠言和歇斯底里就是這麼來的。他們不向人民開誠布公，實際上是在製造恐慌。」

★★★★★★★★★★★★

完整報導: https://nyti.ms/2J070dm

圖片來源: http://bit.ly/2U1tgJS

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這篇文章你最喜歡哪一句? 辛苦的小編把所有的關鍵片語都列出來了! 同學會持續的看到這些關鍵詞彙和句型出現在我們所有的時事英文喔！

★★★★★★★★★★★★

台灣的應對: http://bit.ly/3a6NSGu

保健心智圖: https://goo.gl/seqt5k

保健相關單字: https://wp.me/p44l9b-Tt (+mp3)

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Day 2: Seminar Dunia Pelaburan Saham sesi terakhir Kuala Lumpur 2014 bersama Dato' Dr Nazri Khan, First Vice President Affin Hwang Capital & President of MATA.

"Trading is For Living"....

[MY FORECAST NEW YEAR 2015]

Alhamdulillah. Looking forward to my first political seminar along with Malaysian respectable politicians on 2015 Economic & Stock Market Outlook.

All friends invited to attend. 27th January, Sunway Resort Hotel.

My humble FORECAST in 2015 :

2015 will see USA Federal Reserve unwind its huge USD3 trillion financial stimulus and start to hike interest rates, first time in eight years.

2015 will see Bank Of Japan and European Central Bank to start pumping in USD1 trillion yen and Euro 1 trillion to boost their flagging economies.

2015 will see Malaysia chairing ASEAN and the launch of Asean Economic Community and ASEAN stock exchange by October 2015.

2015 will see the start of mega bank merger in Malaysia. Expect the biggest Malaysian Bank to be born with more than RM100 billion market cap next year.

2015 will see Malaysia finally implement Good Service Tax at 6% (lowest in ASEAN) after the long planning since 1992, Mahathir Prime Minister and Anwar Ibrahim, Finance Minister era. Malaysia are the third last ASEAN countries to implement GST.

2015 will see more than 10 mega IPO in Bursa Malaysia which includes 1MDB, Malakoff, Weststar, Iskandar Waterfront, Al Medini, Khazanah Theme Park, Ekuinas Ilmu, Sunway Construction, Sime Auto and Ecoworld International.

2014 will be officially Bursa Malaysia fourth WORST year in history, after 2008, 1997 and 1994. Year to date, Bursa has dipped 226 points or 11.8% ever since it
touched the highest record on the 8th July 2014.

2014 will be the first Bursa losing year after five straight profitable years since 2008. Not bad, given that Bursa has gained a whopping 1095 points or 135% since 28th October 2008 bottom.

2014 Bursa worst sectors are plantation and oil gas while the best Bursa sectors are technology and construction. All four sectors should be a good buy next year especially technology stocks if USA solid economy continue.

2015 should see Bursa renew momentum and continue the uptrend driven by the return of foreign inflows. As at today, foreign investors hold 45% of Malaysian Bonds and 23% of Malaysian equities, among the lowest in history.

2015 hottest economic issues will be falling ringgit, falling oil, rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising household debt, illicit money outflow and New Economic Model of Malaysian 11th Economic Plan.

2015 hottest political issues will be 1MDB Berhad, Anwar Sodomy Verdict, Seditious Act, Hudud Row, Pakatan Solidarity, Felda Group, Malaysia Airlines Berhad and UMNO New Political Model. Expect to see the rise of Malaysian political temperature and more confrontation Malay liberals vs Malay extremes.

2015 will see oil even cheaper than water. Within five months, oil price has crashed from USD110 to USD55 per barrel. It now costs RM1 to buy a litre of oil, compare
to water which is RM2 a litre. Ironically, RON 95 and Milo Tarik have not fallen as much.

2015 will see more currencies volatility. Forex traders are set to return. Top Five worst currencies in 2014 are Russian Rouble, Chilean Peso, Argentina Peso, Colombian Peso and Ukraine Hryvnia which have tumbled more than 20%. Ringgit which is already down 12% is yet to join the fray. Russia has shockingly raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10% after the collapse of the rouble currency.

2015 will see the return of Avian Influenze H5. Japanese officials slaughtered 4,000 chickens after confirming the H5 strain of bird flu at a poultry farm in the
southwest of the country. More widespread H5 will push Malaysian healthcare and glove stocks higher.

2015 will see the return of El Nino. Australian Weather Bureau confirmed 70% probabilities of El Nino emerging by February 2015 in the Pacific Ocean. This should be supportive of global aggro commodities including Malaysian Palm Oil.

2015 biggest DANGER to Global Stock Market will be GREECE. Signs suggest Greece may leave European Union if the left radicals, Syriza Party win the Greece general election this month. If this materialize, expect Greece exit to tear off Euro.

My overall take : 2015 will be the Best Stock Picking year for all investors and traders, despite higher Malaysian political temperature and rising interest rate, given the solid USA economy, cheaper Bursa stocks, super attractive risk-reward and huge selling seen over the last six month.

~ Nazri Khan, Affin Hwang Investment Bank.