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天啊！我有看錯什麼嗎？
道瓊跌了超過1800點！！！
Dow plunges 7.2% and S&P 500’s plunge triggers 15 minute halt as oil prices deliver a punishing blow to Wall Street - https://on.mktw.net/2PYU6jx
INTEREST RATE CLARITY AND DOVISH JACKSON HOLE TESTIMONY SHOULD LIFT EQUITY MOOD, KLCI TO REGAIN UPWARD MOMENTUM
[Top Featured Stocks which include the likes of Gamuda, Bursa, IHH, IGB, Sunway, Westports, Fitters, PJDev, Econpile, Pintaras, Sentoria, Huayang, KSL and Matrix.]
Going forward, we expect local market to remain firm, trend higher and gradually retest 8th July 2014 all-time-high of 1896.23 level as traders increased their bets on solid USA economy, dovish Federal Reserve testimony, reduced geopolitical tension and a steady recovery of the world economy. Local stocks should get momentum from world stocks performance (MSCI All World stocks and S&P 500) which recently hit five-year and all-time-high respectively with an impressive gain of 17.6% and 20.7% year-to-date, driven by a round of positive economic data and low interest rate despite the latest commodity volatility and elevated tensions in the Ukraine and Russia. We expect many Asian bourses including Bursa to play catch-up, with MSCI All-World and FTSE All-World equity index rose to its best close since May 2008 following Federal Reserve easy policy continuity and ease of geopolitical tension. There is also another bullish wild card from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole. Global equity should get a huge relief rally if ECB hints at the possibility of a USA-like quantitative easing policy, which has been debated in Europe but so far the ECB has declined to pursue. Despite a hawkish tone from last week USA Fed meeting minutes and the collapse of local speculative small cap stocks (Sumatec and PDZ), the local indices should get further rally driven by a measure of strength in German PMI readings that bolstered hope for a modest lift in third-quarter European growth prospects. Investors should take heart from a batch of encouraging global economic data (USA Building Permits, USA Housing Starts, Germany Manufacturing PMI, France Manufacturing PMI, Canada Wholesale Sales), which helped offset hawking Federal Reserve minutes. Investors should have better interest rate clarity on the normalisation of monetary policy after the much awaited Jackson Hole Bankers Central Bankers Conference following the strength of the USA economy and jobs market. On a weekly basis, ringgit saw aggressive moves higher versus the dollar, gaining 5.3% to 3.17 since February 2014, starting its strong upward momentum after being battered down since May 2013. We expect these fresh rounds of foreign dollar injection to slowly push carry trades into higher yield Malaysian market, boosting local asset liquidity specifically Bursa stock market and Malaysian government bonds. On the technical front, we see strength across the board with FBMKLCI remain 2% below record territory supported by Wall Street at new all-time highs and Dow Jones Industrial Average back above the 17,000 psychology level. Studies are showing positive momentum for FBMKLCI but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 20-day moving average. The market has a positive tilt with the close over the 1860 support level. The 9-day Stochastics over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. The next area of resistance is around 1880 and 1900 levels, while major areas of support hit at 1860 and 1850 levels respectively. We expect the recent upward momentum in equity to continue given the steady follow-through Bursa performance during the last week session. Meanwhile, we expect the following headlines to power up selective play near term sentiment (1) Petronas to give 10.0% stake in Bintulu LNG 9 to Sabah government (2) Brahim willing to sell its stake on Malaysia Airlines request (3) Bumi Armada’s consortium to seal USDD3b oil gas contract deal in Angola (4) Kumpulan Europlus to buy stake in Talam (5) Icon Offshore to bag RM297.0m worth of jobs from Brunei Shell Petroleum (6) Malaysia Airlines to appoint a new top management and (7) Oldtown to open 27 cafes in in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Australia by end 2015. Overall, the early Bursa edge goes to the bulls, with next target at the 1880 level benefitting from a risk-on vibe across USA and Europe. We reiterate that the FBMKLCI remains above its monthly uptrendline and thus is in a secular bull market. That means any significant periods of weakness this year should be viewed as strong buying opportunities. While local small caps consolidate with buoying sentiment, impressive rotational interest on large and mid-cap blue chips should showcase healthy risk taking with active foreign participation accumulating battered down blue chip stocks. Strategy wise, given that the short term trend has turned positive toward 1880, traders should accumulate our last recommended Top Featured Stocks which include the likes of Gamuda, Bursa, IHH, IGB, Sunway, Westports, Fitters, PJDev, Econpile, Pintaras, Sentoria, Huayang, KSL and Matrix.
Dr Nazri Khan
First Vice President/Head of Retail Strategy, Affin Investment Bank
@ President, Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA)
[ENGLAND/SPAIN BOOKIES LOST MILLIONS, STOCK BULLS PROFIT BILLIONS, DOW JONES RALLY TO A RECORD HIGH OF NEAR 17,000 BY DR. MOHD NAZRI KHAN]
My quick take on Top TEN MARKET NEWS and TOP 30 STOCKS to buy this Monday.
1. The whole global stocks are on steroid. Climbed to another amazing record territories as reflected by MSCI All World which hit a six year high and Dow Jones Industrial which shot to all-time-high of nearly 17,000 level.
2. The Federal Reserve twin bullets i.e. bullish assessment of the economy and ultra-low interest rate are the biggest bullish driver for the stock market.
3. The Fear Index (Wall Street Volatility Index VIX) fell to the lowest levels since February 2007 suggesting high complacency and short term bubble in the global market, induced by USA overbought rally and Federal Reserve loose monetary policy.
4. The whole world market miraculously ignore the continuous violence in Iraq and Ukraine-Russia tension. Barack Obama told Congress that he does not need their approval for any action in Iraq and Russia, suggesting more uncertainties in Iraq and Russia. As a result, brent crude oil settled at a nine-month high of USD115.06 a barrel. Gold however benefited the most from the geopolitical tension after hitting a two month high, up 3.1 %, the biggest one-day gain in eight months.
5. FBMKLCI staged its one-month-best-session on Friday, 20th June, shot 10 points to close above 1880 level. After carving out a tight 1860-1880 trading range over five weeks, FBMKLCI finally break above the 1880 resistance level and now looks poised for a retest its all-time-high near 1890 level. Ringgit also hit the strongest level against USA Dollar (3.198, highest year-to-date) before depreciating lower to 3.2190.
6. Local technology shares is the strongest (up 2.1% w-o-w), raising the prospect that solid USA economy may benefit the most to local exporters and tech stocks with strong rallies seen in key technology blue chips such as Unisem, Globetranoics, MPI, Inari and Vitrox Berhad.
7. Bank Negara is expected to raise the interest rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (a quarter of one percent) from the current 3.0% to 3.25% by the next MPC meeting scheduled on July 10. The Malaysian economic growth (6.2%) in the first quarter of this year is the fastest in one year and therefore has fuelled expectation that interest rates in Malaysia has finally bottomed.
8. Facebook suffered its worst server crash when it was unavailable for half an hour suggesting crazy global demand and over capacity. Facebook lost USD1mil as the outage affected the website, smartphone and tablet apps worldwide. Facebook price however continue to rally strongly to USD65.
9. Last but not least. Poor old England are ON THE VERGE of being knocked out of the World Cup after an embarrassing loss to Uruguay, despite two incredible misses from Wayne Rooney. Spain dream also crashed when they lost to the fierce Chile. Both England and Spain are global bookies favourite. Loss and bad national mood can spill over into the England/Spanish stock market and can wipe millions off the stock market. Both FTSE 100 and IBEX Index have narrowly retreated from the six year high of 6,900 and 11,200.
10. Overall, expect bulls to dominate Bursa and FBMKLCI should eventually march higher towards its the psychology 1900 level by July 2014. Top FIVE strongest sector in order : Technology, Trading Services, Construction, Properties and Plantation. Worst sector is Consumer and Industrial Product.
Top 30 Stocks Buy List : MPI, Unisem, Globetronics, Vitrox, Penta, Inari, EForce (Technology) Hapseng, Pestech, IHH, Faber, Salcon (Trading Service), Pintaras, Melati, Protasco, Crestbuilder, Jaks, Mitra (Construction), IJMLand, Daiman, Tambun, Matrix, SPB, Menang (Properties), UnitedPLant, SarawakPLant, GentingPlant, SOP, IJMPlant, KMLoong (Plantation).
Good luck.
My commentary in the media :
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v7/bu/newsmarkets.php?id=1048116
http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/295540-klci-week-ahead-klci-expected-to-march-toward-fresh-record-high-on-bullish-global-sentiment.html
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1088560
