關於 small-cap stocks ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻上周六的估值會議影片, 已經將part 1上傳至YouTube. 股友分享的case study之後會再分享:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvSFMAKkOo8

謝謝參與的股友們!

🌻整理了一下最近的一些市場狀態(from WSJ):

1. S&P 500很安靜; 從去年10月後, 就沒有超過5%的修正.
(上次SPY那麼安靜, 是在2017時(那時候的安靜期也比現在長), 接下來在2018就有一個劇烈的修正).

2. Russell 2000盤整了一段時間
-->有可能是之前漲多了(或是投資人在觀望經濟前景?); 財報好的話, 或許能繼續推升(the outsize earnings growth by small-caps is expected to continue throughout the year, with Russell 2000 profits projected to more than quadruple (四倍) from a year earlier in the third quarter, while S&P 500 earnings rise above 25%).

The Russell 2000 traded at the end of June at 17.7 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 21.5 times for the Russell 1000 large-cap index, according to BofA Global Research.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a recent research report that small-cap stocks have tended to outperform large-caps when economic growth is above its long-term average. That is expected to be the case this year and next, but potentially not in 2023, they wrote.

“Small-caps being more sensitive to economic acceleration, as that slows down, I think the relative attractiveness of small-caps will subside a little bit,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-stocks-look-to-extend-winning-streak-11625650200

3. TINA(there is no alternative to stocks)
因為低利率以及紓困案, 資金充裕, 跑到股市, 但因投資人對經濟前景的不確定性(可能也加上散戶投資人資金充沛), 導致類股輪動劇烈(sharp & swift), 也導致成長股與價值股的正相關性變低(近期兩者是同時在漲)(“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market buy not a lot of volatility of the market.”)

4. 而上周的Fed會議紀錄, 也顯示出官員們開始debate何時要做資金退場的動作.

Fed的動作, 以及接下來的財報季, 會給投資人一個方向. 也要注意labor market(“It hasn’t made enough progress” for the Fed to pull back on stimulus programs”).

5. 目前的一些問題: Delta variant, labor shortage, bottleneck(供應鏈), etc.

🌻Q3的財報季要開始了. 本周由銀行股打頭陣. 附上本周發表公司財報一覽表.

🌻有不少年輕世代, 會利用交友軟體, 來找普通朋友, 不是用軟體來找對象.

In a recent survey of more than 300 members of Generation Z aged 16 to 24 in the U.S., 35% said they have used dating apps to make platonic friends over the past 12 months, according to OnePulse, a consumer insight app and web portal, which conducted the poll for The Wall Street Journal. Nearly 27% said they used dating apps to make friends because they were lonely in lockdown. More women than men—39% vs. 29%—said they used dating apps to make platonic friends.

Looking for a Friend Without Benefits? Try Match, Bumble and Tinder.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/looking-for-a-friend-without-benefits-try-match-bumble-and-tinder-11625675336

Picture: Feeling agitated. 被關了一年多, 其實最想去的地方之一, 是美術館, 或是博物館. 在YouTube上看影片的感覺, 就是跟現場親臨不一樣. Anyway. 從今天開始, 我會把之前從museums拍到的一些照片在這邊分享. 也算是做個回憶. 下面這張是Washington D.C.的National Art Gallery所珍藏的Magnolia: https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.93464.html

[小型股ETF] (原文中有美國小型股ETF一覽表)

升息的話 對小型股來說 未必是一件壞事。

許多人認為, 如果美聯儲開始加息, 較小的公司可能會有困境。但其實, 小型股和相關的ETF可能會有優異表現。

對小型股的表現持有疑慮的人認為, 有些因素會讓小型股的表現不好, 小公司依靠銀行貸款融資, 而利率上升的話, 會使得小型企業的花費增加。

此外, 不看好小型股的人也認為, 投資人會視小型股為沒有到期日的債券, 使得這個配息本來就低的類別, 在升息後, 更不受投資人的青睞。

然而, 股票市場已經意識到即將發生的美聯儲加息, 並或多或少消化了此消息。此外,山姆·斯托瓦爾, 一位美國股票策略師對標準普爾全球市場情報指出,中小型股在美聯儲女主席耶倫上周的公開談話之後, 表現地比大型股還穩定.

'也許所謂的類股輪動, 在股票與債券中並不明顯, 而是主要出現在大型股與小型股之間”斯托維爾在一份報告中說。

美聯儲加息也將有助於支撐的美元，這將使美國出口海外更加昂貴，削弱較大的國際性公司的收入。相比之下，中小盤股主要集中在美國國內市場，斯托維爾指出，美國小型股增長預測比那些大型股好。

過去三年來, S&P500跟美元指數間的相關係數是0.72 (monthly correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)), 而S&P小型股(SmallCap600)跟美元指數間的相關係數是0.55.

[BURSA REVERSED AND CLOSED OCTOBER STRONG, WALL STREET CLIMBED TO 1% OF RECORD HIGH, UPBEAT ECONOMIC AND CORPORATE DATA TO INSTILL MORE POSITIVE TONE]

Despite being overbought, we expect FBMKLCI to continue trending higher following a fresh wave of bullishness in the global equity markets (both MSCI All-World and FTSE All-World rose 1.8% and 1.7% w-o-w) as investors put aside recent uncertainties over the pace of global growth and the Federal Reserve’s intentions to end its asset purchase program. We note that global equity markets including Bursa closed October strong, after recovering from nine-week-poor-performance (with FBMKLCI finding support near 1760 level after dropping 130 points or 6.8%). Going forward, we expect local stocks to continue the solid rebound following USA economic optimism, bullish global economic (USA 3Q GDP growth/labour market/consumer confidence figures), China state enterprise reforms and Japanese liquidity pump priming which offset worries that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rate sooner than expected. End of year rotation and window dressing are also likely to push equities higher as mutual funds start selling losers and buying winners ahead of the traditionally bullish November-December-January festive seasons. Over the past week, we have seen the local stock market dip lower on profit-taking dragged by the cautious release of the latest US Federal Reserve hawkish meeting minutes and the IMF slower global growth forecast. Contrary to the earlier session sell -off, investors subsequently appeared to take a strong relief after the bullish Fed statement on USA economic strength. Positive tones can be seen in Asian region following China economic reforms despite talks of tough tightening to curb the flow of credit and burst the nation’s property bubble during the weekend’s meeting of China’s Communist party hierarchy. Meanwhile, stronger Japanese Nikkei supported by weaker yen and an optimistic tone from the Bank of Japan as well as talk that a major pension fund is looking to boost exposure into riskier assets should inspire a re-pricing of risk in the regional market and was seen as near term positive for Asian equity markets. There is a bullish report that Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the second largest global pension fund, considered a bellwether for Asian institutional investors, will reduce holdings of bonds and add foreign equities. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% taking the equity benchmark to within 1% of September’s record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average put in a stronger performance, rising 2.3%, as Nasdaq rose 3% sharply on the back of a strong earnings report. Bursa has rebounded 4.5% from 17th October low after correcting 6.8% since July all time high of 1896.23. Across the Atlantic, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 2.1%, leaving it some 9% above a 13-month low struck two weeks ago with stocks in Milan rallying 2.3% as concerns about Italy’s banking system appeared to ease. In Asia, Hong Kong and Shanghai rallied 1.6% and 2.1% respectively amid talk of further reforms at Chinese state-owned enterprises. Finally, Brazilian stocks captured 50,000 psycho level and rebounded 3.1% in response to Dilma Rousseff’s presidential election victory. On the domestic front, Bursa and construction stocks are the strongest sector driven by Budget 2015, improved prospects for fiscal consolidation, public finance reform as well as continued order book. Although technology and construction stocks showed slow market leadership early this year, they remain the major driver of the latest reversal and have been outperforming after National Budget Day on the 10th October. Further, small cap stocks continue to show upside leadership (FBMSmallCap, FBMFledgling and FBMAce outperform FBMKLCI and remain within 2% of their record high), a sign that Chinese New Year rally is about to start and should prop risk-taking sentiment in December- January despite several snags spotted in the blue chips counters. Five major news that may catalyse Bursa includes the following (1) AirAsia Bhd to propose RM1 bil sukuk mudharabah programme to support its business expansion, administrative and operating expenses (2) Berjaya to mull IPO of Singapore unit to spur growth in its foreign business (3) TM Bhd to expand its broadband infrastructure network as part of its aggressive Johor expansion programme (4) Faber Group Bhd to become one of the largest asset development and management players in the Asean region after completing RM1.5b merger with Opus Group Bhd and Projek Penyelenggaraan Lebuhraya Bhd and finally (5) LPI Capital Bhd to sell 4 mil of its Public Bank shares. On the technical front, the latest gain for the FBMKLCI took it back above its 50-day moving average for the first time in nearly a month, and left it just 2% below a record closing high reached in the middle of September. Meanwhile, major oscillators are overbought with daily stochastics turning lower from upper line levels while MACD close to flash negative crossover reinforcing a downside break ahead especially if FBMKLCI find near term resistance at 1850 which is also the 200 day moving average. The market however could take on a defensive posture if FBMKLCI reverse down and violate 1830 support level. While there is a potential for a short term dip in the market to rebalance overbought technical conditions, the prevailing trend points up with immediate target at 1850 and 1880 level. One way to look for signs of market stress is to look at breadth figures which so far remain positive suggesting more stocks participating in the rally. Hence, we believe any weakness is just temporary and should not be construed as the start of a new crisis downleg. Given the improved market breadth (average daily trade increase to 1.8bn shares worth RM1.9bn), we expect the local market to sustain gains going forward with immediate resistance spotted at psycho resistance of 1,850, August high of 1,880 and all-time-high of 1,896 while immediate support is pegged at September low near 1,830 level followed by 1,800 and 1,770 levels to immediately cushion any deeper profit taking. Finally, for the weekly strategy, we are inclined towards buying Chinese New Year linked small cap stocks such as MyEG, Timecom, GHLSys, Hapseng, KSL, SMRT, Tekseng, IFCA, Carepls, Bornoil, Nihsin, Perstim, SHL, Luxchem. As for blue chips, traders should accumulate holiday-season-beneficiaries-stocks which do well near the festive year end such as Tenaga, TM, Digi, Axiata, Aeon, Gamuda, IJM, Bursa and KLCC.

Dato' Dr Nazri Khan
First Vice President/Head of Retail Strategy,
Affin Hwang Investment Bank
President, Malaysian Association of Technical Analyst (MATA)

If you're new to Forex trading, have less than a year of experience, or you want to learn more about Forex markets, then this course is for you.

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0:10 Forex Trading for Beginners: What is Forex Trading
First and foremost, what is Forex Trading? Alright so, Forex Trading, right, or the word Forex refers to Foreign Exchange. What you are doing is trading one currency for another.

1:20 Forex Trading for Beginners: Who trades Forex and why?
So there are numerous market participants, right, who trade Forex. For example, you have the central banks, banks, corporations and retail traders. So central banks could be because, right, they want to make our economy more competitive, right, by devaluing their currency.

2:20 Forex Trading for Beginners: Forex Hierarchy
So this is the hierarchy, right, you can see that at the top of the food chain is the major banks, the central banks. Then followed by medium-sized and smaller banks, then the brokers, okay, hedge funds, corporations, and finally, retail traders at the bottom.

2:45 Forex Trading for Beginners: Advantages of Forex Trading.
So there are numerous advantages of Forex Trading. Number one, there is high liquidity, right? So unlike stocks that sometimes if you trade penny stocks or small-cap stocks there is no liquidity, right?

4:41 Forex Trading for Beginners: Currency Pairs
So now, what are some of the different currency pairs in the market? Right, there are three broad currency pairs that you should be aware of, right.

6:25 Forex Trading for Beginners: Forex Trading Sessions
Let's talk about the different Forex trading sessions, so. Unlike the stock markets where you're just in one session, the Forex market, you have typically three different sessions.

10:05 Forex Trading for Beginners: Forex Trading Terminology
Now, moving on, right, let's talk about some common Forex trading terminologies. Right, this might be slightly different from stocks, right, but generally the concepts, right, can be applied the same.

21:25 Forex Trading for Beginners: Types of Forex Trading Orders
So, moving on, right, the different types of Forex orders, right, so there are a few types, right. Market order, limit order, stop order, stop-loss order.

26:29 Forex Trading for Beginners: Forex Charts
Okay, so now, the different types of Forex chart. Right, so generally there are, well, there are many types of Forex chart, but I'm just going to, you know, share with you the three common ones. The line chart, bar chart, and the candlestick chart.

30:27 Forex Trading for Beginners: Forex Analysis
Right, so your fundamental analysis, you have technical analysis and sentiment analysis.

34:38 Forex Trading for Beginners:
Forex brokers, generally it can be broken down into one of these two categories, right, dealing desk broker, and a non-dealing desk broker.

42:53 Forex Trading for Beginners: How to Protect Yourself
Alright, so, let's say, for example, you trade with your broker, and you know, you find that your broker did something unjust to you, how can you protect yourself?

I have come to the end of this Forex trading course, I hope you got as much value out of it, and if you want to learn more, okay, you can go down to my website, tradingwithrayner.com.

** FREE TRADING STRATEGY GUIDES **

The Ultimate Guide to Price Action Trading: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/ultimate-guide-price-action-trading/

The Monster Guide to Candlestick Patterns: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/candlestick-pdf-guide/

** PREMIUM TRAINING **

Pro Traders Edge: https://www.tradingwithrayner.com/pte/

Pullback Stock Trading System: https://pullbackstocktradingsystem.com/

Price Action Trading Secrets: https://priceactiontradingsecrets.com/

00:00 In today's episode, I have a question from Umang, who asked, "Hey Rayner, how do I scan the stock markets for my trading setup? Because there are so many stocks out there. Hundreds, if not thousands of stocks."

00:17 So my response to this is that there's a four-step procedure that you can follow, number one: finding a trading setup or a pattern is just like finding a wife.

00:37 if you are looking for a wife who is a brunette, Asian, Chinese, Indian, or whatsoever, you have to know what you're looking for in the first place, and it's the same for trading the markets.

00:54 Are you looking for a trending stock? a breakout stock, or maybe a stock that's tanked over the last twelve months and you're going to buy near the bottom whatsoever.

01:10 Once you've defined your trading setup then you can go into step two: Determine the market cap of the stocks you want to trade. For example, for those of you who are in the U.S., you have Russell 3000. Russell 3000 comprises of the large-cap, mid-cap, and the small-cap stocks. So, if you can define what market capitalization of stocks you want to trade, you can filter it down further. But if you're let's say, in Singapore, there's the large-cap, mid-cap, you have a few thereabout. You don't really need to do this classification, it's only for those of you who are in countries where you have thousands and thousands of stocks.

01:48 So once you have classified the market cap at step two, proceed to step three: Scan the markets. Let's say you want to scan stocks that are trending, what you want to do is to put up the twenty, fifty and two hundred period moving average, so if the stock is above the three moving averages, chances are it's a trending stock. You can also go through your entire watchlist and scan all the stocks which are above these moving averages. Alternatively, if you want to trade breakout stocks, you can just look for stocks that are on a 52-week high, breaking out of their 200-day high, etc. Another example I can give you is that if you want to buy stocks that are doing very bad over the last 12 months and you want to catch bottoms, what you can do is to scan stocks at their 52-week low, 200-day low, and etc.

02:44 Once you've scanned the markets, what you want to do is do number four: Put it all in a spreadsheet. Let's say you have 500 stocks to scan, you can do it all on the weekend. You want to put down those stocks in a spreadsheet that are close to having their setup occur so that when the market opens next week, you will only focus on those stocks in your spreadsheet that are about to have their setup occur. So, what you want to do is to find the gems among your 500 stocks and put it into a spreadsheet, and focus on it this coming week.

03:40 Now that you can scan the stock market and find the trading setups that you want, some of you might be wondering if there is any software to do this work for you? The only one that I do know of is Finviz, F-I-N-V-I-Z, and that is only for the U.S. stock market. They have this kind of quick scanner on whether you want to use fundamentals or technicals. As for local Singaporean stocks, Philippine stocks, Indian stocks, I do not know of such tools that are in the market right now. But for the U.S. there is Finviz. If there are no scanners you can just go through the four steps I shared with you. Number one, define your trading setup. Number two, know the market cap that you want to trade. Number three, scan the markets. And number four, put those stocks that you have scanned into a spreadsheet so you can track them when the market opens this coming week.

04:35 So that's all I have for you in this week's episode of Ask Rayner. If you're looking for proven trading strategies that work, you can go down to my website tradingwithrayner.com and access my materials for free. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments section below, and if you have enjoyed this video, hit the Like button and I would really appreciate it. I'll talk to you soon.

If you want more actionable trading tips and strategies, go to https://www.tradingwithrayner.com

Thanks for watching!

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