กรณีศึกษา การทุบราคาน้ำมัน แล้วเข้าซื้อหุ้นบริษัทน้ำมัน ของซาอุดีอาระเบีย /โดย ลงทุนแมน
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จากนั้นค่อยไปขอเจรจาลดกำลังการผลิต ยุติความขัดแย้งกับรัสเซีย
นี่คือ 3 ขั้นตอนง่ายๆ ที่ซาอุดีอาระเบียใช้ในช่วงหลายเดือนที่ผ่านมา
...Continue ReadingCase study of smashing petrol prices and acquiring shares of Saudi Arabian oil companies / by Investing Man.
Announcement to increase production capacity to smash oil prices to sink dirt.
Then find the beat to buy the oil company shares when they are heavily sold.
Then let's go to negotiate production capacity. End conflict with Russia.
Here are 3 simple steps Saudi Arabia has taken over the last several months.
War situation, petrol price
Causes most people to damage the economy.
But if it's a crisis creator, it may be able to predict the end of the story.
And it could be a great opportunity
To earn his own destiny.
So what's the details of this?
Invest. Man will tell you about it
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On March 8, 2020, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia erupted.
The cause is because both can't deal with production reduction to tackle COVID-19 issues.
Saudi Arabia solves the game by increasing its production and pressures Russia to come back to negotiate.
The consequence is crude oil in the world market from before the incident at $ 45 per barrel.
It's drastically adjusted to decrease to $ 12 per barrel.
Many people think that the tactics of cutting their own meat like this shouldn't be worth it.
Because the Saudi Arabian economy is highly susceptible to the rise of petrol prices.
Oil sales income is 42 % of GDP and 87 % of government revenue.
But if Saudi Arabia is aware that it's the price smashing, eventually there will be negotiations.
When tensions are temporary, they may find other benefits.
And what happened is Saudi Arabia buying oil company shares
via Saudi Arabian National Wealth Fund or Public Investment Fund (PIF)
This kind of fund will invest in government's excess liquidity in property to create value added to welfare and developing countries.
PIF is currently the 11th largest national wealth fund in the world.
With the property value of around 10,464,000 million baht.
Which in the end of March to early April 2020
PIF fund has spent 32,700 million baht to buy Europe's top 4 giant oil companies that are heavily compromised because of petrol price war events:
Royal Dutch Shell from Netherlands
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 11,033,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 5,697,000 million baht or 48 % decrease.
Total S.A. from France
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 3,600,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 2,106,000 million baht or 42 % decrease.
Equinor from Norway
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 1,606,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 961,000 million baht or 40 % decrease.
Eni from Italy
The company's value before war. Oil price is at 1,340,000 million baht.
The value of the company after war. The price of oil is at the lowest point of 830,000 million baht or 38 % decrease.
Saudi Arabia gives reasons to invest that the stock prices of these companies are very lower than the basics, interesting and may also find opportunities to buy more companies.
Shortly after April 12, 2020
It's called a meeting between export oil manufacturers (OPEC) led by Saudi Arabia.
And outer alliance country led by Russia
The result of negotiations can achieve a common agreement as follows.
May-June 2020 reduce production capacity of 9.7 million barrels per day.
July-December 2020, 7.7 million barrels production capacity per day.
January - April 5.8 2021 million barrels per day
Including Saudi Arabian government has ordered to reduce its capacity for 1 million barrels per day in June.
Saudi Arabia has bought a stock for oil companies.
After smashing the market price, it scares people.
Before I start walking to solve problems
However, no one can be sure of how much this investment has involved in gasoline price war.
And nothing guarantees oil prices won't go down any more from COVID-19 global economic impact.
PIF fund also bought the shares of Carnival Corporation, the largest cruise business owner in the world.
The value is reduced to 75 % from COVID-19 problems.
Which aligns with Saudi Arabian economic reform plan that wants to diversify investment from energy industries such as generating more income from travel business.
This story should be a good idea
Every movement in the business world always lurks with ingenious strategies.
Even an unknown act of what I did.
There may be a background that we don't know.
Saudi Arabian oil price smash case
At first, many people have questions about who will benefit.
Which buying a share of this decency oil company might be one of the answers to this..
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References
-https://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-fund-takes-stakes-in-european-oil-companies-2020-04-08
-https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Investment_Fund_of_Saudi_Arabia
-https://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/sovereign-wealth-fund
-https://www.macrotrends.net/
-https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/12/opec-and-allies-finalize-record-oil-production-cut-after-days-of-discussion.htmlTranslated
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Hmm...Still remembered SiennyLovesDrawing's earlier sharing here about a whisky 🍾🥃 auction❓
SiennyLovesDrawing was invited by The Glenlivet (great thank you for this exclusive privilege)to attend & witness the main auction on 25 May nite🌃🏙 😉
THE GLENLIVET WINCHESTER COLLECTION VINTAGE 1966 🍾BOTTLE NO. 10 SOLD FOR RM116k 🎉🎊👏🏻
Yeah! It definitely higher ⬆️ than the previous record was held for Bottle No. 3 of The Glenlivet Winchester Collection Vintage 1964 🍾at a sale price 💲💱of RM96k
The bidding for the coveted collector's item started at 10am on 25 May & came to a close at approximately 10:09pm on the same day, clocking in a total of 28 bids. Wow! 😲
Initially scheduled to end at 10pm sharp, the auction was taken offline & extended as a live auction by 9 mins due to a last mins intense showdown between 2 bidders vying for the bottle 😃
Winning the right to take home 1 of only 100 bottles to exist of this rare 50-year-old whisky is a Guardian of The Glenlivet who placed his winning bid at 10:09:39pm with the ultimate staggering final figure of RM116k 👏🏻😀
Congrats to the winner! 👍🏻👏🏻
However, the winner has declined to be named & preferred anonymity ☺️
The winner also won a 🛫trip for 2 to Scotland 🇬🇧 ~ the home of single malt that started it all, which includes money-can’t-buy private tours & tastings at The Glenlivet distillery 😍 So nice! Wish SiennyLovesDrawing would be the plus one that the winner will bring...Ha...Ha...just a day dreaming 😆
“It has been an incredible journey for The Glenlivet in Malaysia & tonight shows us that The Glenlivet Guardians are one of our biggest assets for the growth of both the brand and for whisky appreciation in the country”, says Darren Hosie, Regional Brand Ambassador & Mentoring Manager of Chivas Brothers 👨🏻💼
In addition to the main auction, another lucky winner, Guardian Victor Liew 👨🏻went home with a bottle of The Glenlivet 25 Year Old XXV worth RM3k as a prize 🎁 for correctly guessing the winning bid of the Vintage 1966🍾 Victor is a Group Agency Leader Wealth Advisor at Manulife & was 1 of the pioneering Guardians when The Malaysian Chapter of The Glenlivet Guardians began in 2013.
It was so close yet not so for SiennyLovesDrawing's guess of RM118k...😭😭SiennyLovesDrawing was hoping her guess of the winning bid can win a bottle of whisky 🍾as her Happy Father's Day pressie 🎁for her papa
Online fans 👩🏻💻👨🏻💻of The Glenlivet were not left out either. 4 fans 👭👬of The Glenlivet who correctly guessed the final bid price each won a bottle of The Glenlivet 15 Year Old🍾worth RM550.
Attendees of the night enjoyed whiskies 🥃 from The Glenlivet, from the Classics range which includes the Founder’s Reserve🍾, 12 Year Old🍾, 15 Year Old🍾 & 18 Year Old🍾, along with the Master Distiller’s Reserve range, and the precious The Glenlivet 25 Year Old XXV🍾
Guests also enjoyed exclusive experiences with partners Kapiti, Beans Depot & Borneo Harvest that have been a part of the Malaysian Chapter of The Glenlivet Guardians journey so far.
Kapiti ~ premium New Zealand 🇳🇿 ice creams 🍨with flavours like Summer Nectarine, Black Doris Plum, Fig & Honey.
Beans Depot ~ specialty coffees ☕️from Panama, Brazil & Ethiopia to complement the classic expressions of The Glenlivet.
@BorneoHarvest ~ traditional Scottish 🇬🇧cold smoked salmon 🐟& hot smoked salmon 🐟that had just been air-flown ✈️in for the event just the day before
THE GLENLIVET WINCHESTER COLLECTION VINTAGE 1966 🍾
The Vintage 1966 is the 2nd release in the Winchester Collection, a series of rare 50-Year-Old Scotch whiskies 🍾🍾from the single malt that started it all. It is the pinnacle of craftsmanship with every element - from the single malt itself to the bottle it is housed in - being the result of painstaking artistry by celebrated craftspeople from the British Isles.
Fans of sherry casked whiskies 🥃will be delighted to know the Vintage 1966 was aged entirely in a used sherry cask as opposed to a Bourbon hogshead cask that was used for the Vintage 1964. The resulting single malt is a remarkable liquid that layers the soft smooth notes of The Glenlivet with delicate spice – a teasing intermingling of cinnamon and liquorice – and offers an exceptionally long, smooth finish, with a pleasing hint of dryness.
The Vintage 1966 joins the Vintage 1964 to become one of the most sought after & exquisite whisky 🍾collections in the world. Global pricing of The Glenlivet Winchester Collection Vintage 1966 stands at approximately USD 25k
The Glenlivet Guardians are a global community of people who share the same love for whiskies 🥃from The Glenlivet, the single malt that started it all. The Malaysian 🇲🇾chapter was formed through a series of “taste and discover” events & is arguably the largest whisky 🥃community 👫👭👬in Malaysia 🇲🇾 with over 1k members.
For more information, www.theglenlivetguardians.com.my
total global wealth 在 Oak Panthongtae Shinawatra Facebook 的最佳貼文
ลองเข้าไปติดตามภาคภาษาอังกฤษได้ที่นี่นะครับ
Thaksin Shinawatra in Private Discussion
World Policy Institute Global Leader Briefing Series Thinking Points
World Policy Institute, 9th March 2016, New York
———————————————————
Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I must thank you World Policy Institute for providing me an opportunity to share my thought on the challenges that revolve around the economic, regional and global implications of how Thailand will make its way through a period of transition and change.
We all know that no society in the twenty-first century can sustain any form of “progress” in the well-being of its people without at least two basic foundations:
The first one is political stability. The second one is the ability to create economic activities that allow growth and readiness to shift its creativities to sustain wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the tale of the two cities, which is not written by Charles Dickens. It is the tale of parallel progress of Washington D.C. and Beijing. Each has its own history, pain and loathing. As the years go by, the two cities have been seen as rivals which offers competing models for growth and prosperity.
One is Free Market-Capitalism with the so-called “Open Democracy” as the foundation of its economic model. The other one is State-Led Capitalism with the central control system by one party.
Both of the models have proven to be successful in a very dramatic way from the past to the present. Admitting that the Chinese model was fitting to the change of attitude among the leadership of the country at that time, in parallel with the change of economic model in the West, in which the definition of “free trade” benefits China’s shifting position from a close market to a semi-open market.
But we must admit also that both models are now having to adjust itself to the new reality; the reality of dramatic change in speed and character of technology for industrial production; the change from “a country-based product” to “network of global design, global sourcing,and global production for just one product”. This extraordinary change upends the “normal” internal economic adjustment of the country and made it very difficult to find a simple economic adjustment.
We must recognize that advancement in the wealth management technique and technology also upend the normal linkage between capital and changes in production. However, we probably agree, that one common threat for survival in this present so-called “New Normal” is either you have the ability and willingness to change or you don’t. Thailand, like the other countries, cannot get away from this New Normal in the international context.
Ladies and Gentleman,
There is a tale of a poor English teacher in China who soared to the list of the world’s wealthiest people. He neither built a big factory nor invested in any production facility. But, people paid for his service simply to reach the network of supply and demand on a grand scale. I believe, he must feel thank you to the internet.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Amid the global economic slowdown, the pattern of trade has significantly changed. Due to the development of information technology infrastructure and increasing number of population who is able to access to the internet, e-commerce has become a new engine that sustains growth for both developed and developing economies. According to UNCTAD’s report last year, the value of global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce in 2013 exceeded $15 trillion USD. While global business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce still accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion USD, this segment has grown at a rapid pace; especially in the Asia and Oceania region where B2C segment is expected to surge from 20 to 37 percent between 2013 to 2018. Due to the incremental growth of cross-border e-commerce trade, international postal deliveries of small packets and parcels have risen by 48 percent between 2011 to 2014 globally.
For both Asia and the West, I believe these numbers provide us with clues for the new growth opportunities where “access to networks” is the key: meaning, the networks of consumers and factors of production across geographical boundaries. Unlike the economy of twentieth century when “access to centers” is the rules of the game, today, businessmen who do not have big factories and are not the owners of multinational corporations, can manage to reach and satisfy the needs of their customers worldwide through networks of production and distribution with an assist of the new communication technology. Today’s economy is increasingly decentralized. Consumption and production are more and more dispersed. We could imagine that an American producers can sell their products online directly to consumers in the western part of China without having to spend business hours in Beijing or Shanghai. Vice versa, a Chinese producer can bypass New York to offer their products to customers in New England and Mid-Atlantic states. The network economy has provided the people, both in small and large businesses, with the ability to produce and access to consumers at lower costs. We, as a global community, must put special emphasis on how each country can invest and share risk with the people to create growth collectively.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Another tale is about the rebirth of a road that nobody cares since the Portuguese discovered a possible sea route from Europe to Asia. The Portuguese did offer an alternative trade route with substantial margins for the goods carried. Although you might lose half of the cargoes on the way, you still did not lose your shirt. Since the demand for spices were overwhelming, the merchant marines heavily charge everybody.
Ladies and Gentleman,
The heavy-load transport through the sea has been with us till now, and the land routes from Asia to Europe have been neglected. If the world’s economy is thriving like the good old days, probably, not so many people would be interested in finding an alternative in life. But, since the situation goes awry, I believe, any country should consider all possibilities.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, there are two major initiatives that, I think, have great potential to accelerate growth and leverage “quality of growth” that brought into being by the emergence of network economy. One is the China-led “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to develop transport and logistics connectivity encompassed some 60 countries, which include about 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And, the other is the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries, which account for more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP. I have not seen these two initiatives as antagonistic, but rather a kind of two parallel processes that, at a certain point, will create mutual economic benefits for Asia and the West.
We must overcome the stereotype that perceive China and the US as merely the two opposing political superpowers. In reality, the economic development during the past decade has shown us how far these two major economies are interdependent. China is the largest foreign holder of US government securities with $1.24 trillion USD worth. With the total trade volume of $521 billion USD in 2014, the US is China’s biggest trade partner. Total US foreign direct investment (FDI) in China stood at $65.77 billion USD at the end of 2014, while the Chinese FDI in the US is estimated to have reach $11.9 billion USD.
Given this interdependence in mind, I believe Southeast Asia- the region that sits in between the two great initiatives of the two major economies- must put special emphasis on how to enhance the mutual economic benefits with its counterparts. For Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century, the geopolitics should be about how to reinforce the networks of wealth creation for the people that stretch across national and regional borders.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the last tale about a Thai restaurant. No matter how many times the master chef tries to teach his protege, the young man keeps making mistakes in mixing the ingredients. Customers are kept waiting, hungry and mad. Once the customers are served, half of them get diarrhea afterward. The moral of this tale is one must make the written recipe right.
Ladies and gentlemen,
While some people may underline the unique characteristics of Thailand in terms of its history and developmental path, the country itself cannot avoid to come to terms with the global challenges of the twenty-first century. For half a century, the Thai economy has incrementally integrated into global economy. Values of Thailand’s exports per GDP and FDI in the country have shown us clearly how far the growth of Thai economy has been interwoven with the fate of global economy.
Against this context, we shall consider Thailand’s draft constitution with a very simple question: will the latest draft constitution “enable” the country to grow and become stronger in the present world? Or, will the latest draft constitution provide Thailand with a sufficient institutional infrastructure for investment, production, cooperation, and businesses?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Due to the framework set out by the latest draft constitution, it is difficult to foresee a government that is responsive to the people and the challenges of the twenty-first century. According to the new draft, the 200-seat upper house, or Senate, will be appointed by the so-called “experts”. The Senate will also have greater powers to block legislation. Regarding the Constitutional Court, its scope of jurisdiction will be expanded. The Court will have the power to examine cases based on petitions filed directly by individuals, without the requirement that an actual dispute being brought by political organs or other courts.
If we consider the doctrine of separation of powers as the foundation for growth and stability, the critical issue that we shall examine is whether the judicial power will trespass the provinces of legislature/ and executive or not? For a government to be able to manage the economy against the global slowdown, I do hope that there will be no over-enforcement of the judicial power. Experiences of several countries show us that, if unchecked, judicial review can be inappropriately used as “delaying tactic”; thus, in turn, become an impediment to economic policy implementation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I believe that the foundation for the country to create growth and prosperity is to build trust in the global community. The constitution shall protect the rule of law and provide at least a minimum level of freedom of speech that facilitates economic cooperation between the people and the global community. Trade and investment cannot flourish if there is no certain degree of confidence provided by the rule of law. Against the transition and change, Thailand must reevaluate its strength and weakness. The country shall find a sensible way to regain its political stability and economic dynamism. I have only proposed the way of how should we think of the phenomena that is the world today.