關於 u.s. market watch ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻上周六的估值會議影片, 已經將part 1上傳至YouTube. 股友分享的case study之後會再分享:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvSFMAKkOo8

謝謝參與的股友們!

🌻整理了一下最近的一些市場狀態(from WSJ):

1. S&P 500很安靜; 從去年10月後, 就沒有超過5%的修正.
(上次SPY那麼安靜, 是在2017時(那時候的安靜期也比現在長), 接下來在2018就有一個劇烈的修正).

2. Russell 2000盤整了一段時間
-->有可能是之前漲多了(或是投資人在觀望經濟前景?); 財報好的話, 或許能繼續推升(the outsize earnings growth by small-caps is expected to continue throughout the year, with Russell 2000 profits projected to more than quadruple (四倍) from a year earlier in the third quarter, while S&P 500 earnings rise above 25%).

The Russell 2000 traded at the end of June at 17.7 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 21.5 times for the Russell 1000 large-cap index, according to BofA Global Research.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a recent research report that small-cap stocks have tended to outperform large-caps when economic growth is above its long-term average. That is expected to be the case this year and next, but potentially not in 2023, they wrote.

“Small-caps being more sensitive to economic acceleration, as that slows down, I think the relative attractiveness of small-caps will subside a little bit,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-stocks-look-to-extend-winning-streak-11625650200

3. TINA(there is no alternative to stocks)
因為低利率以及紓困案, 資金充裕, 跑到股市, 但因投資人對經濟前景的不確定性(可能也加上散戶投資人資金充沛), 導致類股輪動劇烈(sharp & swift), 也導致成長股與價值股的正相關性變低(近期兩者是同時在漲)(“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market buy not a lot of volatility of the market.”)

4. 而上周的Fed會議紀錄, 也顯示出官員們開始debate何時要做資金退場的動作.

Fed的動作, 以及接下來的財報季, 會給投資人一個方向. 也要注意labor market(“It hasn’t made enough progress” for the Fed to pull back on stimulus programs”).

5. 目前的一些問題: Delta variant, labor shortage, bottleneck(供應鏈), etc.

🌻Q3的財報季要開始了. 本周由銀行股打頭陣. 附上本周發表公司財報一覽表.

🌻有不少年輕世代, 會利用交友軟體, 來找普通朋友, 不是用軟體來找對象.

In a recent survey of more than 300 members of Generation Z aged 16 to 24 in the U.S., 35% said they have used dating apps to make platonic friends over the past 12 months, according to OnePulse, a consumer insight app and web portal, which conducted the poll for The Wall Street Journal. Nearly 27% said they used dating apps to make friends because they were lonely in lockdown. More women than men—39% vs. 29%—said they used dating apps to make platonic friends.

Looking for a Friend Without Benefits? Try Match, Bumble and Tinder.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/looking-for-a-friend-without-benefits-try-match-bumble-and-tinder-11625675336

Picture: Feeling agitated. 被關了一年多, 其實最想去的地方之一, 是美術館, 或是博物館. 在YouTube上看影片的感覺, 就是跟現場親臨不一樣. Anyway. 從今天開始, 我會把之前從museums拍到的一些照片在這邊分享. 也算是做個回憶. 下面這張是Washington D.C.的National Art Gallery所珍藏的Magnolia: https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.93464.html

【創業大冒險】臺美攜手🤝女性創業學院計畫正式啟動！
　　　　　　　　　　　　
今年來自美國國務院的女性創業學院計畫(AWE)與女性創業飛雁計畫合作，為臺灣女創帶來銜接國際的機會。
　　　　　　　　　
3/8婦女節，由經濟部王美花部長及AIT酈英傑處長宣布女性創業學院計畫(AWE)正式啟動！
　　　　　　　　　　
🌸 #王美花部長：「期待可以藉此凝聚女性力量，為臺灣女性新創企業帶來銜接美國及世界的機會。」

🌸 #AIT酈英傑處長：「女性創業學院計畫將強化美臺經濟與商業合作，一起攜手推動亞太區域女性賦權。」

啟動儀式精彩回顧👉https://reurl.cc/g8e00z

AWE計畫今年預計培訓全臺90名初創及新創女性創業家，並建立專屬女性創業的社群網絡，歡迎報名👉https://reurl.cc/l0NbKj

【Startup Adventure】Empower women, write our future together! The Academy of Women Entrepreneurs (AWE) in Taiwan KICKS OFF now!

On March 8th, International Women’s Day, The Director of American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) William Brent Christensen and the Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua, presided over the AWE launching ceremony.

🌸“We hope to build a female entrepreneurship network and create opportunities for women-led startups to engage in American and global market,”by Ms. Wang.

🌸“AWE program embraces our goals to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan economic and commercial cooperation and supports women in the Asia-Pacific region,”by Mr. Christensen.

Watch the Ceremony Video👉https://reurl.cc/g8e00z

The program is recruiting NOW, for more information, please check the link 👉https://reurl.cc/l0NbKj

【#TheDiplomat🌍】難得The Diplomat讀者對香港有興趣：

The series of iron-fisted moves last month in Hong Kong may seem sudden to international observers: Hong Kong government’s earlier reinterpretation of the China-Hong Kong relationship, the election of a pro-Beijing legislator to be a Legislative Council chair through a controversial mechanism, and Beijing’s recent decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The desire to bring Hong Kong under the banner of “one country, one system” is not impulsive. Quite the contrary, it’s a calculated campaign to initiate a so-called “second reunification with Hong Kong” — since the first reunification after the handover, using a lenient soft-power approach, has supposedly failed.

What are Beijing’s calculations that motivate this bold campaign now? And more important, will the campaign work?

While I remain highly skeptical of solely applying the realist framework to study Hong Kong, Beijing’s mentality is nonetheless entirely realism-driven. It is therefore essential to use this lens to understand more of their thoughts.

COVID-19: A Golden Opportunity on the International Stage?

To start with, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have created an ideal backdrop for Beijing to push forward its iron-fisted policy toward Hong Kong. The West has been devastated by the pandemic, more so than China, and has been slower to recover economically. Instead of decoupling from China, Beijing thinks the West is desperate for an influx of Chinese capital and markets. This notion encourages Beijing to pursue brinkmanship, in the form of confrontative “wolf warrior diplomacy,” its escalation of sharp power, and, most recently, Hong Kong’s national security law. As long as the international community does not put their condemnation into action, Beijing will keep pushing the envelope.

Beijing is convinced that the chambers of commerce representing other countries in Hong Kong will always place profits above all else as long as the national security law does not threaten them. Business deals struck at the crucial moment can entice foreign businesses to use their lobby teams in their home countries in Beijing’s favor.

Although anti-China sentiment has become more mainstream, Beijing, the major beneficiary of globalization in the past two decades, has tied its destiny with various elites internationally. These “friends of China” can be swayed to safeguard Beijing’s interests, but the up-and-coming leaders in many countries look less friendly. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Beijing to act is closing before the new value-driven generation comes to power.

The Lack of Incentive Behind the U.S. and U.K.’s Escalating Rhetoric

While U.S. politicians from left to right are vocal against China, their ultimate goal, Beijing believes, is to win votes in the November election. They would hence avoid hurting the interest groups they represent and go easy on actions aiming to punish China, such as denying Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs territory, sanctioning Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or escalating the trade war.

Even though the Trump administration is ramping up the rhetoric to sanction China, protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy is not one of the United States’ core interests. In contrast, having control over Hong Kong is China’s core interest. Beijing would rather make concessions over other disputes with Washington in exchange for claiming victory in Hong Kong for its internal propaganda.

Britain, the co-signer of the Joint Declaration for Hong Kong’s handover, is arguably most entitled to denounce Beijing’s violation, which would give mandates to the United States to act. But Beijing is convinced that Britain, not as powerful as it used to be, will not make such a move. Beijing’s recent plans to withdraw businesses from the United States and list them in the London stock market is a move to place a wedge between the two powers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism and his harsh stance against U.S. allies also strengthens Beijing’s conviction that the West will not follow the United States’ lead.

Beijing’s Divide and Conquer Strategy in Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s parliament, the Legislative Council (LegCo), is a major roadblock to Beijing’s control, as demonstrated twice since the handover — in 2003 when the national security law was first introduced and in 2019 with the anti-extradition legislation that sparked city-wide protests. In both setbacks, Beijing lost control when moderate pro-establishment legislators broke away from the party line in the face of public outcry. As the September LegCo election approaches, the last thing Beijing wants is for the election to become a de facto referendum on the single issue of the national security law, which could result in another landslide win for the democratic parties. The law would be untenable to the international community if it’s opposed by both pro-democracy voters, which according to polls account for 60 percent of the votes, and moderate pro-establishment voters.

The moderates, despite their reluctance to embrace hardline rule in Hong Kong, differ from the more militant faction within the non-establishment camp in that the former rejects the so-called “mutual destruction” option, which risks Hong Kong’s special trade status — its economic lifeline — as a bargaining tactic to force Beijing to back off. Now that Washington is considering withdrawing Hong Kong’s privileges, the possibility of mutual destruction is becoming real. As Beijing has been promoting a narrative that all supporters of the protest movement’s “Five Demands” are bringing about mutual destruction, Beijing hopes the moderates, in fear of losing their financial assets, might turn toward the establishment.

On the other hand, the pro-democracy camp is at risk of breaking apart. Moderate pro-democracy supporters have been going to rallies to keep up with the political momentum. However, marches with more than a million participants would be impossible under the current oppressive environment. For example, the authorities abuse COVID-19 social distancing measures to suppress rallies, permits for peaceful protests are increasingly difficult to obtain, pro-establishment businesses heavily censored the social media activities of employees, and outspoken individuals are often cyberbullied.

Without support from the moderates, some within the pro-democracy camp may radicalize, as Beijing expects. The radicalization would fit Beijing’s tactic of painting protests as separatism and terrorism, justifying the imposition of the national security law. The trajectory would be similar to Beijing’s handling of the 1959 Tibetan “riots,” during which Mao Zedong’s directive was “the more chaotic the scene, the better.”

The Nationalistic Agenda to Divert Domestic Attention

But after all, to Beijing, Hong Kong is not just Hong Kong. In the wake of the pandemic, Beijing urgently needs to uphold nationalism to divert unwanted attention from its economic crisis. That includes a global propaganda campaign to promote its triumph over COVID-19. Upgrading the Hong Kong protests to a national security issue — as a battle against foreign interference to complete the “reunification with Hong Kong” — best suits the nationalist atmosphere. The all-time low sense of belonging with China among the new generation in Hong Kong further justifies a strong-arm approach. The success of the strategy would offer a way to reunite with Taiwan, which would consolidate Xi’s leadership within the Communist Party.

Also, including the Hong Kong issue as part of the national agenda means that the Hong Kong government, which has already lost its will to govern, will dance to Beijing’s tunes.

This comprehensive crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil society is unprecedented. Beijing believes that the heavy-handed approach would pervade Hong Kong with a sense of powerlessness and bring it to its knees. As long as the international response is limited, the execution of the national security law, according to Chairman Mao’s “theory of contradiction,” will follow a script of “a soft hand” and “a firm hand.” That is, after its imposition, the law will initially apply restraint and be used only on individuals to set a stern example, so that the general public would feel as if the law does not impact them at all and property and stock prices would not fall. Gradually and subtly, if the realist formula of Beijing works, the “second reunification” could become a self-proclaimed success story for Beijing’s propaganda.

However, Beijing’s evaluations are not foolproof. Any single miscalculation could lead to a contradictory outcome for the People’s Republic of China. Is it really prepared?

▶️ 國安法：中國的現實主義框架
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjhRbV8qTgo
⏺ 中美夏威夷峰會
https://www.patreon.com/posts/38378214

【鼓譜在專頁inbox取】
【百姓-吳業坤・鼓教學#1-10】
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfH4_otjlag
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百姓 - 吳業坤 is the copy righted property of its owner(s)
This video is fair use under U.S. copyright law because it is (1) noncommercial (2) transformative in nature, and (3) does not compete with the original work or have any negative effect on its market."

原創叔叔節奏太強, 忍不住要Cover了! 呵呵呵!
▇ PPAP Dance Cover: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVv594pq5hY
Samuel鼓課程／Page: http://www.fb.com/samuelwongdrums
IG: 小豬潤 Samuel Wong
微博: http://weibo.com/u/2812628612
优酷: http://i.youku.com/SamuelWongDRUMS

Musicas Studio:
Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/musicasstudioltd
Party Room Page: https://www.facebook.com/musicasstudio
IG: Musicas_Studio
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Samuel流行鼓特惠課程
●$800/60min/4堂 ●二人同行每人$500 ●三人同行每人$400
立即報名: 97039912 (WhatApps)
詳情: fb.com/samuelwongdrums






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This video is fair use under U.S. copyright law because it is (1) noncommercial (2) transformative in nature, and (3) does not compete with the original work or have any negative effect on its market."

原創叔叔太強, 太難模仿了!
原片：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9TpRfDdyU0

Facebook Page: http://www.fb.com/samuelwongdrums
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Studio Facebook Page: IM PRO







PPAP Pen Pineapple Apple Pen is the copy righted property of its owner(s)
This video is fair use under U.S. copyright law because it is (1) noncommercial (2) transformative in nature, and (3) does not compete with the original work or have any negative effect on its market."