【停滯型通膨即將來臨嗎?】
我認為我們即將在一兩年內經歷全球大部分地區的停滯型通膨(stagflation)。我認為投資的方向也會因此微調。
1. 濫發通貨的後果比我們想像中嚴重
我在《後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境》一文中預測的通貨膨脹現象,已經從資本市場、房地產市場逐漸拓展到美國一般消費市場。
從媒體報導或社群網站上的照片記錄看來,普遍性的消費商品價格上漲已然發生。(見圖)
如同諾貝爾經濟學獎得主F. A. Hayek曾以蜂蜜形容貨幣的流動,在注入貨幣的過程,會造成某部分價格上漲,然後才慢慢拓展出去。而以當今Fed的貨幣干預手段,我們可以看到美國國債利率的下跌與股票、衍生性金融商品市場的價格上漲為常見的起點。而最後,亦如另一位諾貝爾獎得主M. Friedman所言:「通貨膨脹始終是貨幣現象」。
我相信讀者也在許多財經媒體上看到有關通貨膨脹的警告或討論了。
經濟學家Joseph Carson指出,美國在1970年代的CPI統計是包含房地產價格,因此1979年CPI成長11.3%中有相當比例是因為當年房地產價格激增。但現今的統計卻排除了房地產價格。而新冠疫情之後美國房地產價格因濫印貨幣而飆漲,故即便美國官方公佈的過去12個月CPI增長5.4%,但如果採取1970年代的標準計入房地產價格因素,則實際CPI漲幅應該是兩位數!
這也表示,Fed聲稱通貨膨脹只是暫時且不嚴重的論點,很可能是基於刻意被低估的統計方法。另一個值得一提的,是Fed自疫情封城後每個月都買入$400億美元房貸為基礎的金融證券(mortgage-backed securities),但我們也都清楚2008年美國金融危機的一大肇因就是美國聯邦政府轄下兩個專門替房貸信用擔保的房利美、房地美機構(Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac),其相當於政府干預市場的行為扭曲並蒙蔽了市場對真實風險的判斷。
更值得警醒的是如顧問公司MBS Highway指出美國Fed實質買入的房貸基礎證券金額恐怕高達$1000億美元每月,硬生生人為壓低房貸利率0.25~0.35%。
綜合來看,Fed刻意濫發通貨不但眾所周知,很可能實際規模超越我們理解。而美國政府的CPI統計卻因排除房地產與股票等資產,無法正確地理解真實通膨現狀。
2. 政府引發通膨並非萬靈丹 -- 菲利普曲線早已失效
美國上班族實質週薪相較去年同期收入下降了1.7%,製造業員工更是下降了2.2%。
然而根據總體經濟學的菲利普曲線與相關理論認為,通貨膨脹引發的實質薪資下降理論上應該可以提高就業。可事實上我們看到的是五月份高達900萬份職位仍空懸找不到勞工。根據華爾街日報報導,六月份失業率5.9%竟仍高於新冠疫情前的3.5%。
為何如此?早幾年我已經多次撰文談過,菲利普曲線只是基於紐西蘭某一小短時期的統計數字,從經濟理論上就存在內在矛盾與瑕疵,根本不是個普遍可適用的通論,頂多算是個「特例」。因此我們常看到經濟學家質疑此曲線失效實屬正常。
從制度經濟學角度觀察,貨幣政策的確可以引發通貨膨脹造成實質薪資下降,但工作機會與適任員工二者的媒合本身並非不存在交易費用,這意味著並非實質薪資下降馬上需求曲線丟進來,交易量(即就業人數)立即增大。
美國Fed的達拉斯分行4月份報告就指出:30.9%因疫情失業的勞工並未重新回到他們原本的舊工作,此數字還高過去年7月的19.8%。
根據美國人力網站ZipRecruiter近日研究發現幾個目前美國就業市場現象:
a. 本來在娛樂或餐飲旅館行業的就業人士,被疫情的強迫停業嚇怕了,高達70%欲轉行,但多數卻因為行業專業不同難以順利轉換跑道。
b. 過去幾個月來新開出的職缺與失業人數竟然同步上升。
c. 因為疫情許多人跑去城市郊區甚至鄉村避難,結果開出職缺的區域與求職者所在區域出現明顯分離。
d. 同樣因為疫情封城管制造成的後果,紐約市區星巴克的今年五月來店人數相較兩年前同期下降65%,工作機會也隨之發生改變。
e. 每週$400美元的失業補助讓許多失業者不急於找工作。溫蒂漢堡、必勝客、Applebee's、Taco Bell等知名連鎖餐廳提供額外的獎金補貼也依然找不到員工。
而這一些因交易費用增加產生的就業市場成交量下降,從制度經濟學角度來看難以依靠貨幣政策改善,而是必須透過放寬就業市場法規來協助降低交易費用。可是我們看到卻是迷信政府管制的新一任Biden政府。
3. Biden總統的行政命令
今年7月初美國總統Biden簽署了一系列行政命令,新增了橫跨農業、健康產業、物流、交通、科技產業、勞工...等各種管制,聲稱可以透過政府干預帶來產業競爭狀態的改善與消費者/勞工權益。
我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏:“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” ... “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.”
經濟學認為競爭無處不在,而不同的侷限條件會導致競爭的態樣改變。某些侷限條件下的競爭會有較高的租值消散,某些則較少。純粹市價競爭的自由市場是理論上完全無租值消散的一種競爭態樣。
因此,政府管制往往帶來的只是更多租值消散與尋租空間。誠如雷根總統說過:「政府本身就是問題,而不是解答。」
所以我們不難發現試圖以更多管制措施、更多政府干預來「使市場健康競爭」的Biden政府,必然是一場徒勞無功且弊病叢生的白工。只是所增加的交易費用,依然是由美國人民來承擔,這對通貨膨脹烏雲蓋頂的底層百姓而言,恐怕雪上加霜。
還記得中美貿易戰多篇文章我均指出,從正確的經濟學邏輯角度來看,時任Trump政府對中國的各種關稅或非關稅貿易壁壘,最終的成本承擔者只會是美國消費者。
我們看到前任Fed主席,現任美國財政部部長Janet L. Yellen也於7月中旬接受紐約時報採訪時鬆口承認Trump時代對中國的關稅障礙結果是在傷害美國消費者。("Tariffs are taxes on consumers. In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, ...")
這樣的錯誤,美國政府百年來犯了無數次。例如我們曾談過Milton Friedman 與George Stigler 兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主共同撰寫的知名論文「Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem」以1906年甫大地震後225,000人無家可歸的舊金山市為研究對象,發現當時無力管制的市政府放任市場自由定價,結果是多數人很快找到新家,即便是十分貧窮者,也有與之對應的廉價房屋提供(1906 advertisement “Six-room house and bath, with 2 additional rooms in basement having fire-places, nicely furnished; fine piano; … $45.")
但到了1946年,舊金山因人口增長而推出租金管制,明明房屋短缺嚴重性遠不如1906年大地震後的慘狀,但卻發生多數人租不到房子的窘境!
根據二位經濟學大神研究,1906年每一個想租屋的人,大約有10間房子供選擇;但租金管制後的1946年,每375個求租客對應10間房子供給。
更嚴重的實例還有1970年代石油危機期間,美國政府出台的各種價格與非價格管制干預措施的結果,反而更抬高國內石化產品價格,加劇石化產品短缺現象,不但各地加油站大排長龍,不少妙齡女子以身體為代價與加油站老闆員工上床以取得汽油的新聞不絕於耳。
因此我推斷,美國如不放寬對中國的制裁,只會加重自身通膨惡果,同時惡化真實失業狀況。
一方面,管制會加重人民負擔提高交易費用這點已經敘明不再重複;另一方面,中國是美國過去二十年瘋狂印鈔卻未引發嚴重通貨膨脹現象的最大助力。
這點不僅我這樣看,如經濟學名家張五常教授、前任美國聯準會主席Alan Greenspan於2005年美國國會聽證會發言,乃至於經濟學人雜誌2004年10月份的特別報告「Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates」也做如是想,且不說還有許多經濟學家也持一樣的觀點。
誠如Greenspan於前述聽證會上發言指出,對中國貿易制裁結果必然導致美國民生物價上漲與人民生活品質受損,但卻無任何經濟學理與客觀證據支撐政客謬論 -- 制裁中國並無法改善美國就業率。
可即便Greenspan早在2005年國會上已言者諄諄,顯然後來十幾年美國政客們是聽者藐藐。因為政客利益往往不等同於人民利益,這是民主國家最大的侷限條件。
回過頭看,Biden政府上台以來,不但沒有放寬Trump時代對中國的諸多基於污衊指控而實施的貿易制裁,甚至有變本加厲的態勢。但如此舉措對美國自身其實極為不利。行文至此我們已經可以確定實質經濟成長停滯與通貨膨脹雙擊的「停滯性通膨」將來臨。
4. 歐美國家與日本普遍高負債結果只能以提高稅率或利率為結果。
所謂的「現代貨幣理論(MMT)」根本是一套無視成本的胡扯,違背了「凡有選擇必有代價」的經濟學最基礎侷限。各國瘋狂印鈔當然最後會出現通貨膨脹,不負責任的政府只能以提高稅率或提高利率為代價。
只是每個國家面對的侷限條件不同,使得代價發生的時程或「閥值」有所不同。
通貨膨脹現象說到底是個「貨幣增長率對上經濟成長率」的過程 -- 當貨幣增長率追不上實質經濟成長率,通貨收縮會發生;當貨幣增長率超過實質經濟成長率,則通貨膨脹會發生。注意,我這裡指的「實質經濟成長率」是「真實」的經濟成長,而不是GDP、凱因斯經濟學那套錯誤的觀念。這部分我以前就為文批評過,有興趣的讀者請自行查找。
故,同樣因應新冠疫情而寬鬆貨幣的俄羅斯,其面對的國際經貿環境不比美國日本,自然很快就承受不住通膨壓力於近日宣布一口氣調升利率100個基點至6.5%。(見圖)
美國聯邦政府2021年政府負債$28.5兆美元,是GDP的128.31%。僅利息支出達$4025億美元,佔年度預算5.3%,佔聯邦稅金收入9.8%。如果美國無法成功抑制通貨膨脹,則隨之而來的利率飆升將造成美國財政風險。畢竟市場利率始終是由「無風險利率+風險貼水+預期通貨膨脹率」組成。
我們可以注意到1980年代初期,美國國債淨利息支出增加的時期,其相對應的10年國債利率也大幅攀升。
同樣地,在高通膨率的1980年代初期(藍線),市場利率也曾一度飆升至近20%(黑色虛線)。(見圖)
再看看目前世界主要經濟體的債務狀況(見圖)
新冠疫情之後,世界主要國家的債務風險只增不減。
英國經濟學家,前英格蘭銀行與英國貨幣政策顧問Charles Goodhart警告:「中國帶給全世界的經濟紅利若因其人口結構老化而逐漸消失,則世界必將面對通貨膨脹衝擊。」("...as aging populations in China and other nations spend more of their savings, average interest rates will rise higher than governments have bargained for...China’s greatest contribution to global growth is now past. This great demographic reversal will lead to a return of inflation.”)
通膨來襲加上實質生產力成長受損的停滯性通膨夾擊下,歐洲與日本等主要經濟體不得不面對更棘手的債務危機。這些國家未來政治與社會的動盪將會是常見的現象。
美元20多年來快速通貨成長下而無明顯國內通膨的一個重要因素,在於其做為世界最主要國際貿易交易結算貨幣的角色,使得世界整體經濟成長大於等於美元通貨成長時,通膨率不易上升。就如Greenspan 2005年在美國國會作證所闡釋,中國作為1990年代以來美國成長最快且體量非常大的貿易夥伴,中國對美元的需求本身就保證了美元的購買力,同時物美價廉的中國製造產品也大幅壓低了美國國內物價增長率。
上個世代扮演此角色的是日本,因此我們也看到日本與中國分別是目前美國國債最大持有國。(Foreign governments owned US$7.053 trillion of US debt in November, including China's US$1.063 trillion, and Japan's US$1.260 trillion, US Treasury data showed. )
然後在此次疫情重創且血虧的奧運會之後,其逐漸衰退的整體生產力與相當惡化的債務狀況,我懷疑日本還有多少殘存力量支撐美元。
因此我們不難理解為何美國新任Biden政府上台後汲汲營營地尋求與中國高層會面。
結論
人民幣國際化的推進與中美經貿脫鉤二者都會帶來美元實質購買力的衰退與美國通膨惡化。因此美國政府如要避免財政危機,必須做到二件事:a. 解除貿易壁壘,尤其是針對中國的貿易制裁;b. 確保中國繼續願意大額購買美國債券以及使用美元為主要國際貿易結算貨幣。
中國數字人民幣推展與歐洲也開始積極發展數字貨幣的背後,都是直接對美元在國際貿易、金融體系的競爭。一帶一路若越成功也越能協助人民幣國際化。
這些都是美國非常不樂見。因此我們可以看到美國不斷在造謠污衊中國的一帶一路與科技後門監聽等事項,就算明明被抓包踢爆監聽全世界的是美國自己。
然而如同我多次解釋過,美式民主制度下政客的利益與人民利益往往不一致。當鼓動對中仇視有利於競選時,美國政客很難選擇與中國和平、更深度交流的道路;當增加更多政府管制干預與有利於尋租時,政客也是毫不猶豫地如此選擇。所以我們會在未來相當長時間看到精神分裂的美國 -- 又不希望中國在世界經濟影響力增加而欲打壓,但自己又不能真的因打壓中國與之脫鉤。
這種人格分裂狀態恐怕未來十幾年都會是美國政壇主旋律。
因此站在投資人的角度,我選擇把財產壓在美國利率終將上漲這一大方向上。
文章連結:
https://tinyurl.com/58hauwkf
參考資料:
WSJ, "How Much Are Prices Up? Here’s One Family’s Day-to-Day Expenses." July 9, 2021
WSJ, "Job Openings Are at Record Highs. Why Aren’t Unemployed Americans Filling Them?" July 9, 2021
WSJ, "Governments World-Wide Gorge on Record Debt, Testing New Limits" July 12, 2021
范一飞, "关于数字人民币M0定位的政策含义分析" 2020年09月15日
元毓, "宏觀經濟學的尷尬—菲利普曲線死了嗎?" May 8, 2018
NYT, "Yellen Says China Trade Deal Has ‘Hurt American Consumers’" July 16, 2021
WSJ, "Biden Targets Big Business in Sweeping Executive Order to Spur Competition" July 9, 2021
WSJ, "The 2021 Olympics Are Turning Into a $20 Billion Bust for Japan" July 20, 2021
Bank for International Settlement, "CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system" BIS Annual Economic Report | 23 June 2021
Barron's, "The Housing Market Is on Fire. The Fed Is Stoking the Flames." July 23, 2021
Barron's, "Disco Inferno: The U.S. Could Be Headed Back to ’70s-Style Stagflation" July 16, 2021
Reuters, "Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014" July 23, 2021
Milton Friedman & George Stigler, "Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem" September 1946
Alan Greenspan, "FRB: Testimony" June 23, 2005
The Economist, "Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates" Oct 2nd 2004
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🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
why go global in business 在 ลงทุนแมน Facebook 的最佳解答
ทำไม สวิตเซอร์แลนด์ จึงมีฉายาว่า ประเทศแห่งนวัตกรรม /โดย ลงทุนแมน
ถ้าถามว่า ประเทศไหนบ้างที่ได้รับฉายาว่า ประเทศแห่งนวัตกรรม
“สวิตเซอร์แลนด์” ก็เป็นชื่อหนึ่ง ที่ได้รับฉายานั้น
ทำไม ประเทศที่มีจำนวนประชากรน้อยกว่าจำนวนคนในกรุงเทพฯ ...
Continue ReadingWhy Switzerland has a nickname of innovation / by investment man.
If you ask which country is the nickname of innovation
′′ Switzerland ′′ is also one name that gets that nickname.
Why are countries with less population than people in Bangkok?
And there are 13 times smaller than Thailand's nickname is the country of innovation.
Invest man will tell you about it.
╔═══════════╗
If you want to know the possibilities of the world economy, you must understand the
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
You can order at (get 10 % discount from the cover price of 350 baht)
Lazada: https://www.lazada.co.th/products/1000-i714570154-s1368712682.html
Shopee: https://shopee.co.th/product/116732911/6716121161
╚═══════════╝
Switzerland is located in the Western European Continent.
It's a small country of only 41,285 square kilometers.
Which area size is 13 times smaller than Thailand.
And there is no way out to sea.
Switzerland has a population of just 8.6 million, less than the estimated number of people in Bangkok, around 10 million.
But in 2019, Switzerland had GDP reaching 24 trillion baht, the world's 20th largest.
And the average income per Swiss capita is 2.7 million baht per year.
Make here the world's 2th highest average income country
Why a small country without sea exit
Population is less than the number of people in Bangkok.
And not having as many natural resources as other countries.
To have this big economic size
The answer to this story is ′′ Innovation
Do you know that the budget for research and development of Switzerland's research and development in 2020 is worth 720,000 million baht, 3 % of GDP.
Which is considered a country with budget proportion to the world's top GDP.
By investing in this aspect, it's to develop and build new knowledge.
That will lead to innovation in future.
Which helps the country have inventions, works or services.
That can meet the needs of human beings who are changing along time.
In the past, Switzerland is one country that succeeded in developing and innovating that Switzerland can rank 1 in the field of innovation from World Economic Forum's rankings for 10 consecutive years.
And this story becomes one of the key factors.
That attracts multinational companies to do business in Switzerland.
For example,
Nestlé Global Food Product Leadership Company
Year 2019 earn 3.2 trillion baht, profit 431,000 million baht.
Currently, the company's value is around 10.7 trillion baht.
Novartis company manufacturing and distribution of world's major medicine and medicine.
Year 2019 earn 1.5 trillion baht, profit 368,000 million baht.
Currently, the company's value is around 6.4 trillion baht.
ABB, Electrical Systems Engineering and World's Big Automation Technology Company.
Year 2019 earn 879,000 million baht, profit 45,000 million baht.
Currently, the company's value is around 1.7 trillion baht.
In 2019, the chemical machining industry, electronic products, the industrial group that creates export income to Switzerland over 3.7 trillion baht or almost 40 % of the country's exports.
What we can notice from this number is
Switzerland's multi-income industry is using a lot of innovation.
It's reflecting that Switzerland budgets put into research and developments make good returns for the country.
Although in the past, Switzerland has a major obstacle, there is no space to go to the sea to make a trade through the navy.
But we can see that Switzerland shuts down this weakness by innovating to develop countries and successfully stepping up to become one of the top countries of the world.
This story is another great example to see that
The country's research and development budget is important.
And a huge priority at this point
It's fine to make Switzerland become a country that is called ′′ Innovative Country..
╔═══════════╗
If you want to know the possibilities of the world economy, you must understand the
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
You can order at (get 10 % discount from the cover price of 350 baht)
Lazada: https://www.lazada.co.th/products/1000-i714570154-s1368712682.html
Shopee: https://shopee.co.th/product/116732911/6716121161
╚═══════════╝
Follow up to invest manly at
Website - longtunman.com
Blockdit-blockdit.com/longtunman
Facebook-@[113397052526245:274: lngthun mæn]
Twitter - twitter.com/longtunman
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Line - page.line.me/longtunman
YouTube - youtube.com/longtunman
References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Switzerland
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/732269/worldwide-research-and-development-share-of-gdp-top-countries/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABB_Group
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novartis
-https://finance.yahoo.com
-http://www.worldstopexports.com/switzerlands-top-10-exports/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nestl%C3%A9
-https://www.loveinc.com/gallerylist/73262/10-countries-that-used-to-be-poor-but-are-now-richTranslated
why go global in business 在 Karaoketutor AGT Celine's Father - Vocal Coach Youtube 的最佳解答
#celinetam #譚芷昀 #toloveyoumore #onlinevocallesson #howtosingbetter #singandyou #freevocaltraining #vocaltrainingforbeginner #學唱歌 #聲樂課 #stevetam
Subscribe
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Support Us, Please Go to Patreon
支持我們請前往Patreon
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Wanna join AGT Celine's Father, Vocal Coach Steve Tam's Special Vocal Workshop?
希望有機會參加AGT Celine爸爸-著名聲樂教練Steve Tam的特別流行曲精英班嗎?
https://www.singandyou.com/specialvocalworkshop
learn to sing online - Whether you are in Hong Kong, the Mainland or overseas, and stay at home, you can now enjoy AGT Celine Tam's Father Vocal Coach, Steve Tam’s online singing lessons.
Celine Daddy Steve Tam 譚芷昀爸爸(唱歌老師)在線學唱歌 無論你在香港,內地或海外,安在家中,現在可以享受Celine 爸爸的唱歌教學
Book an Online Vocal Class by Steve Tam
https://www.singandyou.com/book-a-trial-class
Whatapps +852 96981248
Wechat: singandyoumusic
Advance Tailor-Make Singing Course (Online/Classroom)
高級定制課程(在線/教室)歌唱課
https://www.singandyou.com/plans-pricing
Online Singing Class Video For Reference:
在線唱歌課視頻供參考::
https://youtu.be/1gLTLfXjLHo
Commercial & Oversea Business Partnership:
Dr. Steve Master Class in Your City or in Your Company
商業和海外商業夥伴關係:
Steve Tam在您所在城市或公司的大師班
https://www.singandyou.com/copy-of-masterclass-in-vocal-traini
Support Us, Please Go to Patreon
支持我們請前往Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/vocalcoachstevetam
Some of the Best Students trained by Dr. Steve (AGT Celine TAM's Father)
1. Bring Me To Life COVERED by SAYMusic Joanna https://youtu.be/JM9hD1ZfUr8
2. 天亮了 COVERED by SAYMusic Cherry https://youtu.be/UTrzr504N-8
3. Original Song - Forever Love COVERED by SAYMUsic Farrah https://youtu.be/CQ3oMdfb4mE
4. How Am I Suppose To Live Without You COVERED by SAYMusic Ysabel https://youtu.be/Q2E2W_AQ5d8
5. 白金升降機 COVERED by SAYMusic Charlotte https://youtu.be/lqGrPAy15qc
6. She Used To Be Mine COVERED by SAYMusic Kathyhttps://youtu.be/29lTt1vXY50
If you like it, please like, share, subscribe and set notification Sing and You Channel
Over 280 Students Singing Music Videos https://www.youtube.com/user/singandyou
Kids Singing and Music Video on Social Media:
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weibo: http://weibo.com/u/5537288678?refer_f...
Twitter: https://twitter.com/search?q=sing%20a...
wechat: singandyoumusic
Steve Tam Duet & Solo Singing Music Video list:
1. A Million Dreams (Duet) https://youtu.be/8i7eVbRpmIg
2. A Million Dreams (Solo) https://youtu.be/eNgcDb2jBSI
3. Fight Song (Duet) https://youtu.be/8Z6gB_CjqnE
4. Never Enough (Duet) https://youtu.be/vDR1aPOKOZw
5. 愛如潮水 Love is like a Tide (Duet) https://youtu.be/fv_P8oHRBB8
6. Ed Sheeran "Perfect" (Duet) https://youtu.be/U6BPStQ1j6o
7. Westlife - Better Man (Duet) https://youtu.be/Jy2H_Ab_qDQ
8. Westlife - Better Man (Solo) https://youtu.be/DCBHuaJaPHI
9. Fight Song (Solo) https://youtu.be/lC40hEmDPwg
10. A Whole New World (Solo) https://youtu.be/l3C6-kuLXJk
11. A Whole New World (Duet) https://youtu.be/ZPC7nqcONDc
12. 夢醒時分 (Solo) https://youtu.be/QRigxB6ZlY0
13. Always Remember Us This Way (Duet) https://youtu.be/nqRjMXPFo04
14. Let It Be The Beatles (Duet) https://youtu.be/GLc0QROzjaM
15. 夢醒時分 (Duet) https://youtu.be/D2lfoZtjuak
16. Speechless (Duet) https://youtu.be/PgfNwzhTsJY
17. Always Remember Us This Way (Solo ) https://youtu.be/F1odOtsuML8
18. Even Now (Duet) https://youtu.be/4X9c5CjN7cE
https://www.singandyou.com/book-a-trial-class
Global Whatapps+852 96981248
wechat: singandyoumusic
Existing Students from China, Hong Kong, United States, England, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Canada.....
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/cIKtoGU5jDo/hqdefault.jpg)
why go global in business 在 Karaoketutor AGT Celine's Father - Vocal Coach Youtube 的最佳貼文
#letmeloveyou #VocalLesson #singandyou #saymusic #學唱歌 #聲樂課
#StevexSteveDuet #celinetam #KURTSCHNEIDER #JustinBieber #AlexGoot #KHSCover #celinedaddy
Support Us, Please Go to Patreon
支持我們請前往Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/vocalcoachstevetam
Advance Tailor-Make Singing Course (Online/Classroom)
高級定制課程(在線/教室)歌唱課
https://www.singandyou.com/plans-pricing
Online Singing Class Video For Reference:
在線唱歌課視頻供參考::
https://youtu.be/1gLTLfXjLHo
Celine Daddy Steve Tam 譚芷昀爸爸(唱歌老師)在線學唱歌
無論你在香港,內地或海外,安在家中,現在可以享受Celine 爸爸的唱歌教學,點擊以下查看三種不同網上唱歌課程音樂計劃
Book an Online Vocal Trial Class試堂 (Dr. Steve)
https://www.singandyou.com/book-a-trial-class
Whatapps +852 96981248
Wechat: singandyoumusic
Commercial & Oversea Business Partnership:
Dr. Steve Master Class in Your City or in Your Company
商業和海外商業夥伴關係:
Steve Tam在您所在城市或公司的大師班
https://www.singandyou.com/copy-of-masterclass-in-vocal-traini
Steve Tam Singing Coaching & Song Vocal Coach React Videos
1. [How to Sing with Microphone] https://youtu.be/Tw4noES6nYY
2. [Duet Beauty and the Beast] https://youtu.be/kzgYORK8ne8
3. [Jeffrey Li Tell Me Why] https://youtu.be/V0sqKxH9F5k
4. [Jeffery Li Can You Feel The Love Tonight] https://youtu.be/i5HNGE_nUko
5. [Korean Girl Yoon Si Young Tomorrow] https://youtu.be/AcboYC3j5xc
6. [Jeffery Li You Raise Me Up] https://youtu.be/xyDPtcMNClY
7, [Colours of The Wind] https://youtu.be/1eNV759DkYY
8. [Indonesian Girl Malea Emma] https://youtu.be/MFMh-EGIE_M
9. [TNT BOY LISTEN] https://youtu.be/K1B63KOjfGM
10. [China Girl I want a HOME 我想有個家 邱詩晗] https://youtu.be/xwAO-hEKZeE
11. [TNT BOY Flashlight] https://youtu.be/q_JnGLGyLsM
12. [TNT BOY A Million Dreams] https://youtu.be/7ciTmdIkJSw
13. [Sucker by Jonas Brother Carpool Karaoke] https://youtu.be/HPNSMUyw2l8
14: [A Million Dreams ft. Dr. Steve singing A Million Dream] https://youtu.be/bJry08dREmM
15: [TNT BOY I Am Telling You I'm Not Going] https://youtu.be/_1YoiA58GmU
16: [TNT Boys Break Free] https://youtu.be/Mr5Ev9J1p30
17. [My Best Choice - Fight Song ft. Angelica Hale is Winner] https://youtu.be/5Nb0-hP4WNs
18. [Cimorelli Never Enough] https://youtu.be/hNzGxbV20GY
19. [My Best Choice Never Enough ft. Cimorelli James Charles Angelica Morissette https://youtu.be/kMxuAep_AEY
20. [Your Face Sounds Familiar Kids 2018: TNT Boys as Bee Gees | Too Much Heaven]
https://youtu.be/SGPt1ITT9cA
21. [愛如潮水 Love is like a Tide] by Jacky Cheung 張學友 Jeff Chang 張信哲 https://youtu.be/4Pdfr5cQWdM
22. [Believer by Imagine Dragons, One Voice Children Choir]https://youtu.be/3Ibk4fT0_Zo
23. [Perfect by Ed Sheeran ft. Duet with Beyoncé] https://youtu.be/GdzGAywrMlE
24. [The Prayer Marcelito Pomoy] https://youtu.be/fMNlfMZlQj4
25. [Ariana Grande Surprises TNT Boys f/ 'The World's Best] https://youtu.be/duS-9m_v6oQ
26. [Westlife - Better Man] https://youtu.be/ffGatrLas60
27. [Dimash Kudaibergen] https://youtu.be/CB2CIH4_6S8
28. [A Whole New World] https://youtu.be/epHN_AWtfSw
Steve Tam Solo & Duet Singing Music Video List:
1. [StevexSteveDuet - A Million Dreams by Steve Tam]https://youtu.be/8i7eVbRpmIg
2. [Steve Solo - A Million Dreams by Steve Tam ]https://youtu.be/eNgcDb2jBSI
3. [StevexSteveDuet - Fight Song by Steve Tam ]https://youtu.be/8Z6gB_CjqnE
4. [StevexSteveDuet - Never Enough by Steve Tam ] https://youtu.be/vDR1aPOKOZw
5. [StevexSteveDuet - 愛如潮水 Love is like a Tide] https://youtu.be/fv_P8oHRBB8
6. [StevexSteveDuet - Ed Sheeran "Perfect"] https://youtu.be/U6BPStQ1j6o
7. [StevexSteveDuet Westlife - Better Man] https://youtu.be/Jy2H_Ab_qDQ
8. [Steve Solo Westlife - Better Man] https://youtu.be/DCBHuaJaPHI
9. [Steve Solo Cover - Fight Song] https://youtu.be/lC40hEmDPwg
10. [Steve Solo Cover - A Whole New World] https://youtu.be/l3C6-kuLXJk
11. [StevexSteveDuet - A Whole New World] https://youtu.be/ZPC7nqcONDc
12. [Steve Solo Cover - 夢醒時分] https://youtu.be/PgfNwzhTsJY
#agtceline #agtcelinedaddy
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why go global in business 在 Dan Lok Youtube 的最佳貼文
How Can You Use The REAL Meaning Behind Loyalty To Scale Your Business? The Easiest Way Is To Develop A High-Income Skill. Click Here To Discover The ONE High-Income Skill You Were Born To Do: http://loyalty.danlok.link
For entrepreneurs, business owners, and companies, one of the most painful experiences is when one of your employees stab you in the back, betray you, or go work for the competitors. That’s why in this video, Dan Lok takes you behind the scenes on one of his private team meetings, where he’ll tell you the real meaning behind loyalty.
? SUBSCRIBE TO DAN'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW ?
https://www.youtube.com/danlok?sub_confirmation=1
Check out these Top Trending Playlists -
1.) Boss In The Bentley - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46OWsrbWGPnPW8mvDtjge_6-
2.) Sales Tips That Get People To Buy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6Csz_hvXzw&list=PLEmTTOfet46PvAsPpWByNgUWZ5dLJd_I4
3.) Dan Lok’s Best Secrets - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZNmFJUuTRs&list=PLEmTTOfet46N3NIYsBQ9wku8UBNhtT9QQ
Dan Lok is a Chinese-Canadian business magnate and global educator known for being the founder and chairman of Closers.com - the world’s #1 virtual-closers network, Copywriters.com, and SalesCalls.com. Beyond his businesses, Mr. Lok has led several global movements to redefine modern education where he has taught individuals from 150+ countries to develop high income skills and financial confidence.
Beyond his success in business, he was also a two time TEDx opening speaker. An international best-selling author of 12+ books. A member of Young Presidents Organization (YPO) - a private group of global chief executives whose companies employ 22 million people and generate 9-trillion USD in annual revenues. He also hosts The Dan Lok Show - a series on elite business tycoons and world-leading entrepreneurs.
Today, Mr. Lok continues to be featured in thousands of media channels and publications every year and is widely seen as one of the top business leaders by millions around the world.
If you want the no b.s. way to master your financial destiny, then learn from Dan. Subscribe to his channel now.
★☆★ CONNECT WITH DAN ON SOCIAL MEDIA ★☆★
YouTube: http://youtube.danlok.link
Dan Lok Blog: http://blog.danlok.link
Facebook: http://facebook.danlok.link
Instagram: http://instagram.danlok.link
Linkedin: http://mylinkedin.danlok.link
Podcast: http://thedanlokshow.danlok.link
#DanLok #Meaning #Loyalty
Please understand that by watching Dan’s videos or enrolling in his programs does not mean you’ll get results close to what he’s been able to do (or do anything for that matter).
He’s been in business for over 20 years and his results are not typical.
Most people who watch his videos or enroll in his programs get the “how to” but never take action with the information. Dan is only sharing what has worked for him and his students.
Your results are dependent on many factors… including but not limited to your ability to work hard, commit yourself, and do whatever it takes.
Entering any business is going to involve a level of risk as well as massive commitment and action. If you're not willing to accept that, please DO NOT WATCH DAN’S VIDEOS OR SIGN UP FOR ONE OF HIS PROGRAMS.
This video is about The REAL Meaning Behind Loyalty
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why go global in business 在 Go global with Meta Cross-Border Business - Facebook 的推薦與評價
Go Global Like a Local. Find insights, solutions and partners to connect with people around the world. We work with businesses to find new ways to enter ... ... <看更多>