週一開工大家好!我是 AppWorks Associate Sophie,又回到我的小專欄,我看前幾篇大家都不太理我,是不是因為太長?還是太普?還是 meme 不好笑?🥺 歡迎大家私訊讓我知道一下啦~ 🥲
這篇要來談談 [ 我的單位經濟怎麼看? ]
對大多數的新創而言,把資源用在規模成長,比眼前的獲利更重要;但這個命題的前提是:你的產品跟商業模式是能夠具備單位經濟效益 (Unit Economics) 的。所以本篇來跟各位創業者探討,如何從利潤以及 Unit Economics 的相關指標來檢視自己的公司。
#毛利看競爭力與產品定位
毛利其實是一個很重要的指標,毛利的高低直接說明了一個公司的產品或服務所處的競爭地位,以及經營效率。在同業互相比較的時候,毛利較高意味著這個公司有能力訂出比較高的價格 (可能是品牌定位或者強大的客戶需求),或者是有能力降低原料或人力物力的成本 (所以經營效率驚人)。而毛利的高低也決定了這個公司能夠保留多少利潤來投入行銷資源與研發,是很強的競爭力來源。
有時會見到利用負毛利來競爭的新創團隊,在我來看是一件危險的事。這意味著你的品牌定位是透過高度的價格競爭來吸引用戶。然而品牌定位非常難改變,用戶的心理預期需要很長的時間調整,甚至可能改變不了,日後如果要調整定位,可能整批用戶都要流失,目標客群完全改變。
#邊際利潤率
邊際利潤率 (Contribution Margin) 的計算方式是把收入扣除變動成本以後的利潤率,也就是不考慮那些頭洗下去的固定成本 (比如租金、產品開模費、管理人員、等等),每多賺 1 塊錢,可以帶來多少利潤。此時再把固定成本除以 Contribution Margin 後,可以回推損益兩平 (Breakeven) 的收入規模是多少。這邊我們可以看出,透過 Contibution Margin 這個指標,可以幫助創業者蠻綜觀性地去思考自己該做一門 “多大的生意”,才能真正損益兩平,並且進一步獲利。
#單位經濟效益觀察獲利能力
基於每個商業模式的不同,Unit Economics 的計算方式也不同,重要的概念是,把收入拆分成最基本的衡量單位,同時比較每個基本單位的變動費用。有的商業模式比較好拆分,比如物流可以看每運送一單的收入與成本、雲端廚房或是倉儲類型可以看坪效,而 SaaS 或平台服務則可以透過客戶價值 (Life Time Value, LTV) 以及獲客成本 (Customer Acquirsition Cost, CAC) 來檢視。
#重新檢視競爭力
LTV 除以 CAC 至少要大於 3 倍,是坊間常聽到的版本,為何是 3 倍其實只是一種經驗法則,從美國上市的 SaaS 模式來看,這個數字更高,Netflix、Shopify 都落在 4-5x,Snowflake 去年上市的前七個季度平均是 5.5x。倍數本身不是絕對的真理,更重要的是當創業者關心自己的 Unit Economics 的時候,會更關注如何優化自己的服務。LTV 不夠高就要提升產品競爭力、降低客戶流失率 (Churn),CAC 過高就要注意費用的效率、檢視團隊內人力的配置。
#從獲客回收期找出分析重心
相比觀察 LTV/CAC 的倍數,CAC 的回收期 (Payback Period) 可能更具參考性,多快能賺回這些費用不只是效率問題,更重要的是現金流的產生能力。創業者應該可以及早透過對各種產品、服務,以及客群做 Payback Period 的分析,可以幫助自己去投注資源,迭代在最賣座、最有價值的產品身上。
#群組分析看出更多細節
其實近年來隨著 SaaS 服務的演進,開始有許多關於 LTV 與 CAC 已經不夠合時宜的討論,主要是因為現在有許多 SaaS 服務有更彈性的價格,而且用戶也越來越能自行使用這些服務,銷售費用也可以隨著業務狀況即時調整;舉例來說,美國的開店平台 Shopify 提供用戶初階、一般、以及進階方案,用戶可以即時改變、甚至隨著需求自行加購各種工具。這些變化導致 LTV/CAC 的計算方式顯得太過僵化,也可能會在不同時間有大的起伏,參考性不足。
群組分析 (Cohort Analysis) 作為一個輔助工具,近年有從配角變主角的趨勢。SaaS 或非 SaaS 的新創都可以用這種分析方式,對收入或是客戶留存做 Cohort Analysis,可以為創業者帶來更細緻的資訊含量。舉例來說,把每個月新增的用戶在後續的每個月留存率分月列出,可以觀察這些不同月份是否因為不同的行銷活動或是特別原因,帶來數字的變化。整個 Cohort Analysis 也可以觀察出用戶在一定時間後的使用趨勢,如果這個趨勢是越來越差,就代表現在的整體策略需要重新調整。
今天就寫到這邊,下週見! - Sophie 編
同時也有4部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過6,750的網紅Shukri Vlogs,也在其Youtube影片中提到,#finlandvsrussia #finlandvrussiahighlights #finlandvsrussiaeuro2021 #finlandvsrussiahighlightseuro2021 #russiavsfinland #russiavsfinlandhighlights #ru...
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"Nahaz may die soon and we should respect our elders"
LOL
I recently wrote a small bit about TI invites & invitations in general based on a comment that some invites were determined because of nepotism. Here's my response
That's not how any of this works
First of all, the talent invites for TI every year are decided by Valve themselves and doesn't have much outside influence. I don't know but I would guess it's decided by committee or 2 or 3 people rather than one guy. Valve decides (just like every other tournament organizer out there) what kind of show they want to put on before deciding what talent to invite. You don't invite Redeye first and decide you want a professional, well-executed show later. First you decide for a premier event like this you want everything looking & sounding professional (but still fun) rather than a more laid-back & casual show like The Summit or Seatstory Cup. Redeye will be the first to tell you that organizers are hesitant to hire him for an event like that because he's so good at being the pro and they can't imagine him in a much more relaxed environment. This proves you can be perfectly capable talent but not be invited because you don't fit the organizers vision.
So, now that you've decided what kind of show you want to have, this will usually decide (as well as the budget) how many slots you have for talent. A limited number of slots at the biggest tournament of the year means you have the tough task of picking and choosing which talent fit your vision for the event. Some invites are obvious, like Merlini, Tobi and Redeye due to their long-term established talent and fanbases within the scene. You don't have a CS:GO Major without Anders & Semmler because they're fucking Anders & Semmler. Others farther down the line are going to be endlessly compared to other, equally suitable talents and you have to decide which one of them fits your event the best. You may have a personal taste for the ex-professional players on the panel and enjoy the in-depth analysis they give but that doesn't mean as a showrunner you fill up the panel w/ all hardcore analysts. I believe a good example was the TI5 panel was (from my perspective) rather stale & boring despite having great analysis. Part of the reason is that you have to consider synergy & who works best with others. For example, at the Frankfurt Major, Maelk was invited because he had good synergy with Paul and served as a catalyst & punching bag for flames to make the panel more fun & loose. Maelk serves as an excellent heel because he's likeable enough but still comes off as arrogant w/ unshakeable confidence so you can make fun of him without feeling bad. Does this mean that Maelk was more deserving of an invite over Godz? Absolutely not, Godz deserved it 10x more than Maelk, but Maelk fit the vision of the desk better for the showrunner.
So in this case, where's Fogged? Where's Nahaz? Again, I don't know exactly, but I'm going to guess he/they didn't fit the vision of the show despite being perfectly qualified. Charlie is naturally more of an entertainer than most with his elaborate flames & can serve as a catalyst for banter back and forth. Shane understand Dota at a better level than your average viewer but is endlessly finding ways to make things fun & loose. Pyrion's insanely personable & has an excellent sense of wit. Black has more experience with all the regions of Dota and probably has personal stories about many players. Slacks is a creative madman & sold his soul for an innovative sense of humor with a drive to create more content this year than any other personality in the scene. Godz is an excellent analyst who's able to break down the vast amounts of information to the most important points to the audience. Purge has a dryer sense of humor than anybody there and is mindful & articulate in explaing Dota's fundamental concepts. I got carried by Blitz, etc, etc. The point is, if you try to actually think outside of your own point of view & preferences and evaluate the various talents of the scene, you can see that there's a potential reason to invite almost every person people listed in this thread depending on what kind of show you envision.
While personalities can be flexibile & well-versed in covering multiple roles or moods in a show, every talent brings something unique. Nobody can be a better Blitz co-caster to me than Blitz. Nobody can beat Redeye on being the Redeye professional host & meme maker. Nobody can beat Charlie at being Charlie (see: Asshole). That doesn't mean I wouldn't be hyped to cocast with Fogged. That doesn't mean Chobra couldn't take Redeye's spot and make this event amazing.
This also doesn't mean that there aren't people out there who deserve it more than the people being invited. Durka, Llama, Lyrical, to name a few, all deserve it based on the purely on the hardwork of grinding more games out than almost anybody on this list. Fogged deserves it because of his genuine personality & knowledge of the game and its scene. Nahaz deserves it because he may die soon & we should respect our elders. Unfortunately those people didn't make it and that sucks. That doesn't take away from their talents or hardwork nor does mean that undermine who did make it by saying nepotism determines invitations.
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