關於 what is establishment terrorism ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

What do people do every year on July 1st - the HKSAR Establishment Day? ⁣
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Hong Kong was returned to China on 1 July 1997. Every year on this day, government officials attend the flag raising ceremony, locals take to the street and tourists watch the firework displays.⁣
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2020 is going to be different.⁣
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The National Security Law just came into effect. Full details only emerged after it was in force last night at 11pm. ⁣
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Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are punishable by a minimum sentence of three years, with the maximum being life. (BBC) *𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐠𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐝𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐬.*⁣
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It is also the first time in 23 years that the police ban the annual July 1st march, where people from different backgrounds marched for different reasons, same goal - the betterment of Hong Kong, on the basis of coronavirus social distancing measures and previous unrest.⁣
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Firework displays? Cancelled. ⁣
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#staysafe #staystrong⁣
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#HongKong #香港 #香港人加油

【#TheDiplomat🌍】難得The Diplomat讀者對香港有興趣：

The series of iron-fisted moves last month in Hong Kong may seem sudden to international observers: Hong Kong government’s earlier reinterpretation of the China-Hong Kong relationship, the election of a pro-Beijing legislator to be a Legislative Council chair through a controversial mechanism, and Beijing’s recent decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The desire to bring Hong Kong under the banner of “one country, one system” is not impulsive. Quite the contrary, it’s a calculated campaign to initiate a so-called “second reunification with Hong Kong” — since the first reunification after the handover, using a lenient soft-power approach, has supposedly failed.

What are Beijing’s calculations that motivate this bold campaign now? And more important, will the campaign work?

While I remain highly skeptical of solely applying the realist framework to study Hong Kong, Beijing’s mentality is nonetheless entirely realism-driven. It is therefore essential to use this lens to understand more of their thoughts.

COVID-19: A Golden Opportunity on the International Stage?

To start with, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have created an ideal backdrop for Beijing to push forward its iron-fisted policy toward Hong Kong. The West has been devastated by the pandemic, more so than China, and has been slower to recover economically. Instead of decoupling from China, Beijing thinks the West is desperate for an influx of Chinese capital and markets. This notion encourages Beijing to pursue brinkmanship, in the form of confrontative “wolf warrior diplomacy,” its escalation of sharp power, and, most recently, Hong Kong’s national security law. As long as the international community does not put their condemnation into action, Beijing will keep pushing the envelope.

Beijing is convinced that the chambers of commerce representing other countries in Hong Kong will always place profits above all else as long as the national security law does not threaten them. Business deals struck at the crucial moment can entice foreign businesses to use their lobby teams in their home countries in Beijing’s favor.

Although anti-China sentiment has become more mainstream, Beijing, the major beneficiary of globalization in the past two decades, has tied its destiny with various elites internationally. These “friends of China” can be swayed to safeguard Beijing’s interests, but the up-and-coming leaders in many countries look less friendly. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Beijing to act is closing before the new value-driven generation comes to power.

The Lack of Incentive Behind the U.S. and U.K.’s Escalating Rhetoric

While U.S. politicians from left to right are vocal against China, their ultimate goal, Beijing believes, is to win votes in the November election. They would hence avoid hurting the interest groups they represent and go easy on actions aiming to punish China, such as denying Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs territory, sanctioning Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or escalating the trade war.

Even though the Trump administration is ramping up the rhetoric to sanction China, protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy is not one of the United States’ core interests. In contrast, having control over Hong Kong is China’s core interest. Beijing would rather make concessions over other disputes with Washington in exchange for claiming victory in Hong Kong for its internal propaganda.

Britain, the co-signer of the Joint Declaration for Hong Kong’s handover, is arguably most entitled to denounce Beijing’s violation, which would give mandates to the United States to act. But Beijing is convinced that Britain, not as powerful as it used to be, will not make such a move. Beijing’s recent plans to withdraw businesses from the United States and list them in the London stock market is a move to place a wedge between the two powers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism and his harsh stance against U.S. allies also strengthens Beijing’s conviction that the West will not follow the United States’ lead.

Beijing’s Divide and Conquer Strategy in Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s parliament, the Legislative Council (LegCo), is a major roadblock to Beijing’s control, as demonstrated twice since the handover — in 2003 when the national security law was first introduced and in 2019 with the anti-extradition legislation that sparked city-wide protests. In both setbacks, Beijing lost control when moderate pro-establishment legislators broke away from the party line in the face of public outcry. As the September LegCo election approaches, the last thing Beijing wants is for the election to become a de facto referendum on the single issue of the national security law, which could result in another landslide win for the democratic parties. The law would be untenable to the international community if it’s opposed by both pro-democracy voters, which according to polls account for 60 percent of the votes, and moderate pro-establishment voters.

The moderates, despite their reluctance to embrace hardline rule in Hong Kong, differ from the more militant faction within the non-establishment camp in that the former rejects the so-called “mutual destruction” option, which risks Hong Kong’s special trade status — its economic lifeline — as a bargaining tactic to force Beijing to back off. Now that Washington is considering withdrawing Hong Kong’s privileges, the possibility of mutual destruction is becoming real. As Beijing has been promoting a narrative that all supporters of the protest movement’s “Five Demands” are bringing about mutual destruction, Beijing hopes the moderates, in fear of losing their financial assets, might turn toward the establishment.

On the other hand, the pro-democracy camp is at risk of breaking apart. Moderate pro-democracy supporters have been going to rallies to keep up with the political momentum. However, marches with more than a million participants would be impossible under the current oppressive environment. For example, the authorities abuse COVID-19 social distancing measures to suppress rallies, permits for peaceful protests are increasingly difficult to obtain, pro-establishment businesses heavily censored the social media activities of employees, and outspoken individuals are often cyberbullied.

Without support from the moderates, some within the pro-democracy camp may radicalize, as Beijing expects. The radicalization would fit Beijing’s tactic of painting protests as separatism and terrorism, justifying the imposition of the national security law. The trajectory would be similar to Beijing’s handling of the 1959 Tibetan “riots,” during which Mao Zedong’s directive was “the more chaotic the scene, the better.”

The Nationalistic Agenda to Divert Domestic Attention

But after all, to Beijing, Hong Kong is not just Hong Kong. In the wake of the pandemic, Beijing urgently needs to uphold nationalism to divert unwanted attention from its economic crisis. That includes a global propaganda campaign to promote its triumph over COVID-19. Upgrading the Hong Kong protests to a national security issue — as a battle against foreign interference to complete the “reunification with Hong Kong” — best suits the nationalist atmosphere. The all-time low sense of belonging with China among the new generation in Hong Kong further justifies a strong-arm approach. The success of the strategy would offer a way to reunite with Taiwan, which would consolidate Xi’s leadership within the Communist Party.

Also, including the Hong Kong issue as part of the national agenda means that the Hong Kong government, which has already lost its will to govern, will dance to Beijing’s tunes.

This comprehensive crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil society is unprecedented. Beijing believes that the heavy-handed approach would pervade Hong Kong with a sense of powerlessness and bring it to its knees. As long as the international response is limited, the execution of the national security law, according to Chairman Mao’s “theory of contradiction,” will follow a script of “a soft hand” and “a firm hand.” That is, after its imposition, the law will initially apply restraint and be used only on individuals to set a stern example, so that the general public would feel as if the law does not impact them at all and property and stock prices would not fall. Gradually and subtly, if the realist formula of Beijing works, the “second reunification” could become a self-proclaimed success story for Beijing’s propaganda.

However, Beijing’s evaluations are not foolproof. Any single miscalculation could lead to a contradictory outcome for the People’s Republic of China. Is it really prepared?

▶️ 國安法：中國的現實主義框架
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjhRbV8qTgo
⏺ 中美夏威夷峰會
https://www.patreon.com/posts/38378214

Michael加油！

(Please scroll down for English version)
【背水一戰，無險可守 —— 彭卓棋積極考慮出選香港島直選】

十年前的今天，是一場單一議題的「實現真普選，廢除功能組別」的「五‧一六公投」。 十年過去了，普選依舊仍未於這土地出現。

十年後的今天，不但沒有真普選，傀儡香港政府背後真正掌權者——中國共產黨，於這十年間，用盡政治、經濟、文化根本上「去香港化」、「中國式殖民化」。 去年開展起的「反送中」運動，更赤裸裸地告訴我們，政權經已不再搽脂抹粉打壓人民，而是比「陽謀」更陽地明目張膽全民接管香港，推行惡法。 面對香港如此危急存亡之時，香港人對反惡法、反極權這最後底線，透過血汗、個人前途甚至一眾手足的生命去抵抗，重光香港的時代革命，再非口號。 但我們必須刻骨銘記，現在以空間換取的政治緩衝時間，是香港人以灑熱血，拋頭顱換取的。 而前路，我們仍有《國歌法》、「二十三條」的危機。

「知易行難 知難行更難 」
去年，我本著「重奪議會」的理念，參與2019年的區議會選舉。 我懷着不能讓建制保皇派及其親共黨羽自動當選的決心，以及給予居民多一個選擇的信念，最終有幸當選成為南區區議員，服務赤石。 競選之初，我深信前路非常艱鉅，當選後，更深明香港政局是苦征惡戰。 因為，香港政局，再不是能透過協商去解決問題。 若果《中英聯合聲明》作為一個歷史文件，不再具有任何現實意義；若果港澳辦和中聯辦（兩辦）高調亂釋《基本法》是正確；若果721即時拘捕白衣人是不切實際；若果黑警不用為著其暴行而負上種種責任；若果五大訴求仍得不到回應…… 抱歉，我們必需去掉幻想，全面抗爭。 我們已沒有時間、成本再作妥協。

「枉尺直尋 都不妥協 去掉幻想 全面抗爭」
馬丁路德金所言：「改變不會自動到來，而是需要經過不斷的抗爭。」 要香港改變，必須付出代價。 要付出代價，必須全面搶攻抗爭平台。 「街頭抗爭」、「議會抗爭」、「國際支援」，缺一不可。

九月的立法會選舉是香港自由的終極之戰，退無可退，無險可守，「35+」是這場選舉的主軸，以「議會抗爭攬炒」達至迫使政府回應「五大訴求」。 這是沒有妥協的空間。 合適的立法會代議士只有一個條件：就是無論是否取得「35+」，都會堅實不移地執行「議會抗爭」的路線：不惜以一切手段迫使政府回應「五大訴求」，不論立法會的大會或所有委員會，都要有極其堅定的「抗爭意志」來制衡這個不公義的議會，抗衡這個沒有民意授權的政府。

我，彭卓棋亦會積極考慮參與九月立法會港島區地區直選，會以一切可行的方法來進行「議會抗爭」，肢體抗爭的手段更是在所難免。 阻撓惡法，即使有機會被DQ、被控告，又何足道哉？ 只有這份決心，這份意志，才能對得起每一位在運動中犧牲的香港人，才能真正踏出改變的第一步。

最後，十年前的五區公投到今天，「普選」仍未出現。 但我心存感激，自小得到前輩們的啟蒙，投身社運。 但亦因為這份啟蒙，令我看到每個人都無法不肩負時代的責任，只是跑道的不同，無分你我。 這份巨大的責任，就是要以一整代人來肩負。 同樣「光復香港，時代革命」也不要幻想是一次區議會選舉，或立法會選舉就能達成，一切都只是開始，這場未來至少十年的硬仗，讓我們吹起「煲底之約」的號角，闊步昂首對抗極權！ 光復香港！

2020年5月16日 彭卓棋

Ten years ago, I participated in the 5 constituencies referendum protest calling for an abolition of the functional constituencies as well as genuine universal suffrage. Today, not only does true democracy not exist, but Hong Kong is strangled even tighter by the suffocating hands of totalitarian China.

In fact, over the last ten years we have seen increasing Mainlandisation, be it in our education system, property development, economy, culture and arts scene - not to mention, greater control over our political participation.

The 2019 Anti-Extradition Bill protests - specifically, the brutal and unaccountable crackdown that came in response to it - was the most blatant display of tyranny that we have experienced yet. And indeed, it is the recent National Security Law unilaterally passed by the Chinese Communist Party that has decisively declared that “One Country, Two Systems” is dead.

Countless students, activists, religious leaders, professionals and other Hong Kong-loving citizens have sacrificed themselves - their personal safety, security and entire futures - to safeguard what once was an open and free society. It is important that we remind ourselves of their sacrifice every day; to recognise that for these people, “fight[ing] for freedom” and “stand[ing] with Hong Kong” is not simply a catchy slogan, but a real and wholehearted battle.

Last year, I ran for District Council election with the simple intention of offering my constituency with a democratic alternative in the face of a potential pro-establishment automatic reelection. One of the cornerstones of democracy is pluralism and choice - and I am still humbled that a democratic majority of Stanley and Shek O residents chose me as their representative.

Nevertheless, as I ran for, and eventually, as I took up office, I saw the fight for a more open and accountable political future would be a hugely difficult - indeed, nigh on impossible - one. The establishment has trampled over all promises that once guaranteed the autonomy of our city. The Sino-British joint declaration holds little - if any - weight; our Basic Law is arbitrarily reinterpreted to fit the governing ideology of an Orwellian state; the facts of police brutality are entirely denied; while protests are routinely deemed illegal and even labelled as acts of “terrorism”.

To quote Martin Luther King Jr, “change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle.” And struggle is what we must do if we do not want Hong Kong to fall to the hands of tyranny - be it on the streets, on social media, or within our institutions. We each have our calling and we each have our station to make the best use of our abilities. And I believe my place resides within political office.

Therefore, I, Michael Pang, hereby declare that I strongly consider the possibility of running for Legislative Council for Hong Kong Island in the upcoming election in September. Despite whatever threats or obstacles that might come our way, I am more determined than ever to stand by my fellow comrades and take my place in this fight for freedom.

Let us not despair, but let us forge solidarity in adversity - against tyranny and against evil, and liberate Hong Kong.

Michael Pang
16 May 2020