When I read this, I feel as if I’m there.
Tonight, the Democratic Action Party, or the DAP as it is known, introduced its line-up for the five federal seats it holds in Kuala Lumpur.
But that wasn't really the main point of the assembly that met at the PJ Civic Centre.
The issue at play was the reason that made the party set aside its iconic Rocket logo for PKR's "Black Eye" logo in the general elections which the Election Commission will set this Tuesday.
The party that was founded in 1966 had always used that logo since the 1969 polls. Any other logo would have been sacrilegious to the party faithful.
Even from the days of Gagasan Rakyat in the 1990 polls to the Barisan Alternatif days in 1999 and Pakatan Rakyat in 2013.
But in GE14, the DAP had decided to use the PKR logo, as a common symbol for all the parties in Pakatan Harapan.
As the DAP's Gobind Singh Deo explained it, it became clear that the entire party leadership knew this was the bugbear that had to be solved and accepted by the party rank-and-file.
The mood was serious. The tone was sombre. Hands were clasped, ears were cocked attentively, eyes set straight at each other across the hall.
Smiles were as rare at the hall as good news for the opposition pact that has decided the man it fought against for 22 years would now be its candidate for Prime Minister - Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
The reason was simple. Dr Mahathir's party had been temporarily deregistered on the last day of parliament. With that, the Pakatan Harapan coalition could not be registered and its Star Trek-like logo couldn't be used.
It was already a miracle that the pact of four - PKR, DAP, Bersatu and the Islamist PAS splinter group, Amanah, had agreed to register a coalition and nominate Dr Mahathir as its leader.
But the law of the land worked in mysterious ways and their plans went awry. And thus, a decision was made to put the PKR logo as the common symbol.
DAP founding member Dr Chen Man Hin, himself 93 and a year older than Dr Mahathir, had expressed reservations.
But tonight he stood up, raised his hands and pumped his fists as he shouted Ubah! (Change) to signal his agreement to the common logo.
The assembled crowd rose to their feet and cheered. The party leadership clapped and smiled widely. And one bugbear appeared to have vanished.
After all, what's in a logo? A lot. A badge, a symbol, an aspiration, an expression and a cipher for the party.
"Kita rehatkan Roket sementara, bukan padamkan nya!" was the quote of the night. "Kita selamatkan Malaysia dulu!"
That is their battle ahead of them. Thirteen elections have come and gone and the Alliance /Barisan Nasional has won all - 5 under Dr Mahathir.
But Dr Mahathir is on their side now.
And in Kuala Lumpur, it is Tan Kok Wai still in Cheras, Fong Kui Lun in Bukit Bintang, Teresa Kok in Seputeh, Lim Lip Eng moving to Kepong replacing Dr Tan Seng Giaw while his old Segambut seat is for Hannah Yeoh to win.
A small switch in a night of big changes.
But the real change and next chapter for Malaysia is for all Malaysians to write. Not just the politicians.
#malaysia #politics #GE14
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"If you don't follow the stock market, you are missing some amazing drama."
[SIX REASONS WHY BURSA COMPOSITE INDEX WILL BREAK 2,000 BY END 2015 BY DR. NAZRI KHAN]
I am going to stick my neck out here and making a gutsy speculation that KLCI will break above 2,000 level, two years from now. Yes, seriously as early as December 2015.
While that might sound crazy (KLCI is still struggling with 1800 this week), let me humbly justify with SIX undisputable reasons why Bursa will hit 2,000 magic numbers.
REASON 1 : Subprime Crisis Is Over. Solid USA & European Economies.
The USA economy is in its best performance since the depths of the financial recession in 2008. Bloomberg consensus expect USA to post solid economic growth of more than 3% through 2016 and 6% unemployment rate by end 2014, the best rate in five years. The worst is also over for Europe. Europe especially the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) had an extremely severe reaction to the 2008 financial panic due to sovereign debt but as last quarter 2013 their economies are no longer shrinking and in fact are making a modest incremental economic growth since 2008. Both the USA and Europe are Malaysia largest trading partner and represents important sources of demand for goods from every other region. Solid economic recovery in the USA and Europe suggest stronger exports, higher corporate earnings and of course higher Bursa price.
REASON 2 : Average KLCI Annual Gains Since 1977 Is 30%
Look and check this out on Bloomberg, KLCI has easily gained 135% since 2008 and a total of 2015% since 1977 (meaning average of 26% per year). So when you start to look at a 26% price gain per year, and you add in Bursa average of 4% dividends, you are talking about a 30% return average every years. 2000 magic numbers will only represent a cheap 5% gain for KLCI per year from here. Now don’t tell me KLCI hitting 2000 psycho level is a big deal.
REASON 3 : Improved External + Cheap Valuation = More Foreign Inflows.
Fundamentally speaking, the remarkable fact is that even after this incredible 2008-2013 run-up the FBMKLCI index is only selling at 15.5 times estimated 2014 earnings. Reasonable price, at least compared to the super glory time in 1990-1994 where KLCI valuation is 40 times! Remember, I haven’t talk about the foreign inflow which now stand at three years low. S&P 500 companies alone are sitting on USD3 trillion in cash equivalents. Assuming 1% of inflow will inject extra RM100bil per year into Bursa equity. And that could be another reason the market will continue to rise.
REASON 4 : Huge Untapped Liquidity. Millions Of Retailers Are Yet To Jump.
Secondly, only 0.4% of Malaysian are currently actively invested in the market (based on 100,000 active retail investors and 28 million Malaysian population as at Dec 2013). Headlines speak to the fact that as the market advanced, more money is moving back into equities. And that is true. And don’t forget, as at end last year, we have RM326 billion funds invested in unit trust which will plough back into Bursa Malaysia. So given this untapped liquidity, I can easily bet there appears to be an imminent euphoria here in the Malaysia market especially when KLCI broke above 1900 this year.
REASON 5 : Current Bull Is Still Young
2014 should be the sixth year of the bull run which started since 2009. Well, since 1977, the average duration of a Malaysian bull market is 9.8 years, and the average return is 275%. We should understand the bull momentum gradually became stronger as the bull market continued year after year, and normally grow exponentially in the last five years. This bull starting in October 2008 has not even matched that average. It is now only 5.5 years old running with a return of 135%. Meaning we have at least another 4.3 years (till July 2019) and further 140% upside to whack
REASON 6 : Retail Traders Are Roaring
Last but not least, I am impressed by looking at the tiger attitude of retail traders especially the younger ones. Out of nowhere, I see thousands of retail investors from colourful background (engineers, teachers, MLM product owners to idle housewives) fully embraced 2013 bull market, ignoring any threat from the hottest 2013 Malaysia general election and chasing stocks like there is no tomorrow. Trading gallery now is full to the brim and training seminar is packed like a world class soccer match. Buying into speculatively unknown and underperforming names such as Tiger, Palette, Nicorp, Ingenco, Winsun, AMedia & Luster. This strong retail trend should signal more good times to come. I just can’t wait for the last bull stage in 2019 where taxi drivers, mamak staller and even house maids to jump and buy Iris, Sumatec and KNM.
I Rest My Case.
xxxxx
Affin Long Term View : Runaway Bull 2015-2016, Euphoria Bull 2017-2018, Buying Climax & Next Crash 2019-2020
Long Term Strategy : Buy Any Local Bluechips Warrants OR Buy MSCI Malaysia ETF Long Term Options (EWM), Hold Five Years
Affin Low Risk Favourites (Watch For 5 Year Warrants If Available) :
TENAGA (Price RM11.85)
TM (Price RM5.55)
SKPETRO (Price RM4.51)
AIRPORTS (Price RM8.11)
BIMB (Price RM4.29)
TAKAFUL (Price RM10.26)
BURSA (Price RM7.79)
POS (Price RM5.55)
QL RESOURCES (Price RM2.98)
BRAHIM (Price RM2.30)
xxxxx
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