最近在很多海內外報導上看到有一位號稱預知了日本股市反轉、網路泡沫,和在金融海嘯提前撤出資金的投資人 Jeremy Grantham 出來喊空。這是他最新的說法:WAITING FOR THE LAST DANCE。
https://www.gmo.com/asia/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/
查了一下他才發現一些好玩的事情,原來是每年都在喊空,那喊到有什麼好稀奇的,猴子都知道幾年會走熊一次。
雖然路途上一定會有新鮮韭菜被割,但隨著金融科技的進步長期來看參與市場的人只會越來越多,擦鞋童理論是過氣的說法。一批鞋童退休後,沉寂一陣子會有更多的鞋童加入,生生不息。
風險控管並不是什麼看到很多人跑去開戶、咖啡店遇到很多人看盤、或是親朋好友都在談論股票時才要注意,明明就是一個隨時都要做好準備的事情,如果買賣股票是單純看別人參與市場多與少是很奇怪的事情。
2010 – Have Cash, Wait for Stocks to Fall
https://www.cnbc.com/id/40115265
2011 – Grantham sees most global equities as ranging from “unattractive” to “very unattractive” – valuing the S&P 500 at “no more than 950.”
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2011/08/11/doomsayer-jeremy-grantham-7-lean-years-too-optimis/
2012-Jeremy Grantham Warns 2013 Will Be A Dangerous Year For Stocks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2012/10/24/jeremy-grantham-warns-2013-will-be-a-dangerous-year-for-stocks/
2013- Much of everything else is once again brutally overpriced
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-grantham-exciting-crashes-2013-2
2014- Big stock bubble will end badly in 2016
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/05/04/grantham-big-stock-bubble-will-end-badly-in-2016/
2015- GMO founder Grantham says markets ‘ripe for major decline’ in 2016
https://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/gmos-grantham-says-bull-run-for-another-year-then-crash/
---以上是國外網友整理,以下我接力
2016- The stock market will climb roughly 10% followed by a decline over the long term of about 60%, with the market peaking shortly after the U.S. presidential election and before the end of 2017。
https://www.canadianbusiness.com/investing/these-three-investing-legends-are-warning-of-another-market-crash/
2017- 投資者開始撤出 GMO,理由是績效不好
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-bail-on-granthams-gmo-as-assets-at-company-fall-by-44-billion-2017-01-09
2018-Jeremy Grantham, who predicted the last two bubbles, warns the stock market is ready for a "melt-up"
https://www.cityam.com/jeremy-grantham-predicted-last-two-bubbles-warns-stock/
2019-The Man Who Called the 2008 Financial Crisis Says the Stock Market Will ‘Break a Lot of Hearts’ in the Next 20 Years
https://www.barrons.com/articles/jeremy-grantham-stock-market-forecast-51556208817
2020-Jeremy Grantham says this may be the 4th major market bubble of his career
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/jeremy-grantham-says-this-may-be-the-4th-major-market-bubble-of-his-career.html
2021-GMO’s Jeremy Grantham warns: The stock market is in a 'fully-fledged epic bubble'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-os-jeremy-grantham-warns-the-stock-market-is-in-a-fullyfledged-epic-bubble-185722585.html
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過21萬的網紅M13,也在其Youtube影片中提到,Tour Taiwan with me: http://taiwantoursm13.com/ Private Channel: https://www.patreon.com/M13 My Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mordeth13 Supp...
「2012 presidential election」的推薦目錄:
- 關於2012 presidential election 在 股癌 Gooaye Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於2012 presidential election 在 林昶佐 Freddy Lim Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於2012 presidential election 在 小胖子的陽春麵 Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於2012 presidential election 在 M13 Youtube 的最佳貼文
- 關於2012 presidential election 在 Obama vs. Romney: The first 2012 presidential debate 的評價
2012 presidential election 在 林昶佐 Freddy Lim Facebook 的精選貼文
【台美日共同守護印太安全】
美國、日本、台灣三國智庫共同主辦「2020台美日三邊印太安全對話」,包括蔡英文總統、美國前國務院助卿坎博(Kurt Campbell)、前國防部印太安全助理部長薛瑞福(Randall Schriver)、日本前駐美大使佐佐木賢一郎等重要人士都與會。
我也參與三國國會議員的對談,與羅致政委員、陳以信委員、美國聯邦眾議員貝拉(Ami Bera)以及日本眾議員鈴木馨祐,交流2020後的印太及台海情勢與願景。
結果準備厚厚一疊的英文講稿幾乎沒派上用場,講太HIGH不小心就脫稿演出....。無論如何還是提供原本的講稿跟大家參詳,一起來練習英文吧:
2020 Taiwan-US-Japan Trilateral Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue
Hello moderator, fellow panelists, I am Taiwan legislator Freddy Lim.
This year, due to the pandemic, we can only conduct this panel online. I’m still very glad to be invited to attend this event and exchange ideas with these great panelists. Here I want to share my views on today’s main topic: “Challenges and Opportunities in the Indo-Pacific Region and the Taiwan Strait in 2020 & Beyond”.
First I want to start with the conventional positioning of Taiwan under the established international order.
After WWII, the international order led by the allies dragged Taiwan into China’s civil war. Since then, Taiwan's been struggling with the “One China” dispute, unable to gain independence and world recognition like many other colonies.
Even though Taiwanese people have built an independent and democratic country after half a century of hard work, now we enjoy freedom and human rights, the international community still isolates Taiwan. One of the main reasons is obviously China.
The established international community viewed China as a huge economic opportunity, a partner that would eventually carry out political reforms and be integrated into modern international order. Under this conventional thinking, the international community is willing to help China ease and suppress many of its unpleasant problems, including the thorny "Democratic Taiwan."
This has reduced Taiwan to merely China’s “Taiwan Problem”. We’re even slandered as the “troublemaker” of the Taiwan Strait; As a result, the respect that Taiwan deserves continues to be shelved, and the active role we can play, the contributions we can make in the international community are also ignored.
However, this established international structure is now changing.
After decades of appeasement policy, and acquiring WTO membership in 2001, China’s various structural changes that the world anticipated have never taken place. On the contrary, China’s been using organized measures, such as bribing, infiltration, and hybrid-warfare, to undermine international norms. It’s worked hard to manipulate and control international organizations, in order to project its influence onto the world. These actions have been even more distinct after Xi Jinping became President of China in 2012.
Internationally, China implemented debt-trap diplomacy on many countries through the Belt and Road Initiative. It established Confucius Institutes around the world, which are basically intelligence operations in the name of culture. Chinese tech giant, Huawei also aids China’s international surveillance. Not to mention China’s relentless expansion in the South China Sea, building military bases, creating man-made islands. This year, it’s even more serious. We witnessed the long time Chinese infiltration into UN organizations. The favoritism towards China helped its cover-up, which led to the dysfunction of WHO, ultimately causing the COVID-19 global pandemic.
Domestically, the Chinese government not only failed to implement any political reforms, but it also created the “Social Credit” system with advanced technology, to surveil and control its own people; In addition, the Chinese government built the notorious “Reeducation Camps” - concentration camps in reality, in Tibet, Xingjian, where human rights conditions were already in a bad shape. Even the Hong Kong people, who were supposed to be protected by the promise of “One Country, Two Systems”, their freedom and human rights were completely destroyed by the Chinese government.
These compelling examples show that there is some serious fallacy in the conventional way of viewing China. All facts point to this: Taiwan is not the problem. China is the problem. China is the troublemaker of the Taiwan Strait. It’s the troublemaker of the Indo-Pacific region. It’s even the troublemaker of the entire world.
Under decades of collective misjudgement, China was allowed to become the most terrifying, largest digital authoritarian government in human history. It’s a new form of dictatorship. As a response, many countries have vastly changed their China policy in recent years, thus the change of international structure.
This brings me to my next point: Give Taiwan the status it deserves. Let us contribute to the international society.
In a new international structure, Taiwan shouldn’t be categorized as “China’s Taiwan Problem”. Instead, we should be one of the key countries for international cooperation, responding to the new type of dictatorship.
Taiwan has faced authoritarian China on the front line for decades. Many countries are now facing the problem of China's infiltration under its United Front programs. Taiwan started dealing with the same problems 10 to 20 years ago. We have gained a lot of experience to contribute to the international community.
Taking the COVID pandemic as an example, Taiwan has studied and analyzed the actual situation and the information provided by the Chinese government with a serious and high-vigilance attitude. Based on our experience and lessons learned from the China SARS epidemic in 2001, we decisively formed a series of epidemic preventive measures. We have handled the crisis with the principle of openness and transparency. Our people have been self-disciplined and willing to cooperate. All of this demonstrates the high level of democracy in Taiwan’s society.
After the domestic epidemic was brought under control, Taiwan has continued to share our epidemic prevention supplies and the experiences on forming epidemic prevention policies with the world.
Although Taiwan was suppressed, even excluded by China in various international organizations in the past, we’ve been doing our best to comply with the norms & regulations of international organizations. We always actively contribute every time we have the opportunity. What I want to say is, all of this proves Taiwan could be a reliable partner in the international community. We are capable of working with other countries to solve major problems. We deserve our seats and participation in international organizations.
Regarding the impact of U.S. change of administration.
Now the U. S. presidential election is over and the administration is currently under transition. Many countries, including Taiwan, are concerned about whether the new U.S. government will change its course on foreign policy, especially its China policy. However, the "Rebalance (of Asia-Pacific Region)" proposed by the Obama administration in 2011, was in fact already a strategic adjustment in response to the rise of China and possible subsequent expansion.
The Trump administration further proposed the Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017 to promote and uphold international law and regulations, aiming to ensure every country has the liberty to be free from oppression and coercion. I believe that both parties in the U.S. understand the root cause of the Indo-Pacific regional problem comes from the Chinese government. Even for the Biden administration, it will have to provide practical responses. Facing the new structure, they can’t just go back to the traditional thinking of the last century.
As for Taiwan, the pro-Taiwan acts in the U.S., such as the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, Taiwan Travel Act, Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement, were passed with strong consensus between the Republicans and the Democrats. I believe Taiwan could be a key partner to the international community and play an active role in the free world. This isn’t just the consensus of the two parties in the U.S., but will be the consensus of all democratic countries.
In a progressive aspect, the International community can benefit from a wider recognition of Taiwan.
In recent years, the performance of Taiwanese society in terms of epidemic prevention performance, human rights, gender equality, marriage equality, and open government are actually in line with many progressive ideas and visions. The ideas and visions that many democratic countries have long supported. Therefore, I’m quite optimistic that, after 2020, Taiwan can make even greater progress, on multiple levels and in broader aspects, contributing to the international community.
Finally, I want to emphasize again that to truly resolve regional problems, we need dynamic multilateral cooperation. But this must not be a return to the conventional thinking of the past century, which was "expecting" China to abide by the international order. The outdated thinking had been proved to be a failure. Otherwise there wouldn’t be a series of Chinese infiltration and aggression after its rise in recent years, which became one of the most difficult issues in the world. I believe after 2020, U.S., Japan, and Taiwan can establish a new model of international cooperation through deeper collaboration and communication. And hopefully, this model will maximize the security of the Indo-Pacific region and promote peace, stability and development in the region.
This concludes my speech, thank you all for listening.
Lastly, I’d like to express my gratitude to the moderators, my fellow panelists, and the organizers of this event.
I wish everyone peace and good health. Thank you.
2012 presidential election 在 小胖子的陽春麵 Facebook 的精選貼文
#進口萊豬就是最明顯的押寶
2011年蔡英文去美國面試不成功, 2012年妥妥敗選
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2016年, 美國還沒投票, 蔡英文就急忙表態, 還派李應元送溫暖給希拉蕊! 各國媒體都看著綠營甘願做龜婊!
.
2016年川普勝選, 綠營份子還在昏頭轉向如喪考妣, 是李大維等"老藍男"硬是讓蔡英文熱線撥通川普表忠
.
2020年蔡英文陣營在連任就職時的影片還刻意刪減了民主黨陣營的祝賀詞, 明顯選邊站, 搞到事後道歉
.
2016~2020這幾年, 綠營上下無不夾著卵蛋舔爆川川大腿, 把拜登罵成中共同路人, 還是公開罵, 公開表忠心, 甚至駐美代表還公開助選川普, 恐怕是被私下警告才慌忙刪文, 後續就是綠營林濁水爆料綠營代表根本不受拜登陣營待見, 可說是自己把自己蠢死的!
.
#身為外國人怎可以干擾他國內政?
#這是哪門子的外交人材會做的行為啊?
#進口萊豬就是最明顯的押寶
.
什麼豺驚魍美, 焦糖陳, 王O宇, 碎鏡八七等等洗地水龍頭都在罵拜登, 捧川普, 指控大選舞弊, 綠營甚至還放任野狗一般的滋事份子出征美國在台協會AIT的臉書? 笑死, 嫌命長??
.
拜登當選後, 蔡媓急忙想搶在全世界之前祝賀拜登, 綠營忙說出征AIT的都是機器人, 都是在野黨跟親共人士做的, 跟綠營沒關係, #這等急撇清卸責表效忠的行為, 誰人不知在搞三小? 這種樣子還能跟新科美國總統通話嗎? 駐美團沒被請出境算你好運吧?
.
現在蔡英文陣營忙著表演自己很中立, 沒有越線干涉美國內政, 台美關係穩固, 沒有押錯寶, 民主黨拜登好棒棒, 一切都是國民黨的錯, 催眠自己未來台美關係會更好....
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大笑, 做著雜碎的身分還想操主子的心? 蠢到撞見墓碑才知死, 現在想甩鍋給別人, 你當別人都白癡嗎?
.
還想甩鍋? 甩你老木, 雖然應以中華民國利益為優先, 但老子現在就是看綠營笑話, 真不愧是舉世聞名的蠢蛋團體! 蠢! 蠢爆! 蠢到全體智商歸零!!
.
所有反對民進黨選邊站的人早就勸過講過, 你們自己不聽, 只好等著看你們忙成一團, 現在知道你們這些王八蛋想甩鍋, #當然要幫你們死透! 垃圾渣!
===================
華盛頓郵報把蔡英文陣營的選邊站歷史如實報導
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/biden-china-election-taiwan-obama/2020/10/30/44e55488-0868-11eb-8719-0df159d14794_story.html
台灣台北市— 2011年底,台灣總統候選人蔡英文在華盛頓會見了兩名奧巴馬政府官員,這是在嚴重依賴美國安全的島上求職者的慣常做法。她沒有得到他們的認可。
In late 2011, Tsai Ing-wen, a presidential candidate in Taiwan, met with two Obama administration officials in Washington, a customary step for office-seekers on an island that depends heavily on the United States for its security. She didn't win their approval.
台灣政府正式強調,它不支持任何候選人。台灣外交部在一份聲明中說:“無論美國哪個政黨贏得大選,台灣政府都將繼續在目前穩固的基礎上穩步加深台灣與美國的伙伴關係。”
Officially, Taiwan's government has stressed that it does not favor any candidate. "No matter which party in the United States wins the election, the Taiwanese government will continue to steadily deepen the Taiwan-U.S. partnership on its currently robust and sound foundations," Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said in a statement, pledging to maintain neutrality.
但觀察人士注意到,台灣政府的推特賬戶分享了右翼布賴特巴特新聞網站上的一篇文章,並在周二轉發了第一夫人梅拉尼婭·特朗普(Melania Trump)的帖子,助選賓夕法尼亞州戰場。
But observers have noted Taiwanese government Twitter accounts sharing an article from the right-wing Breitbart news site and, on Tuesday, retweeting first lady Melania Trump's post appealing to the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
兩名知情人士說,當蔡在五月任期第二屆總統就職時,編輯們編輯了祝賀賀詞的視頻剪輯片,削減了民主黨人的注意力,並更加重視共和黨的祝福,例如眾議員泰德·尤霍(R-Fla。)。其中一位知情人士說,結果令人震驚,台灣官員後來向民主黨道歉。
When Tsai was inaugurated for a second term in May, editors compiling a video montage of congratulatory messages cut Democrats and added emphasis on Republican well-wishers such as Rep. Ted Yoho (R-Fla.), said two people familiar with the matter. The result was striking enough that Taiwanese officials later apologized to Democrats, one of the people said.
台灣人對特朗普的支持超出了政府的範圍。
Taiwanese support for Trump extends beyond the government.
==================
台灣川粉囂張行徑
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1604598110.A.24D.html
誰是2016年促成特朗普與蔡英文熱線的關鍵人物?
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/taiwan-letters-38249634
2020年連任賀詞遭刪? 傳台灣官員向民主黨道歉
https://news.ebc.net.tw/news/world/233800
https://www.storm.mg/article/3161820
吳斯懷稱 若真有刪文一事 拜登當選恐後遺無窮
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20201101/1844341.htm
駐美代表貼川普助選文 吳釗燮: 有刪掉了啊
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20201102/1844877.htm
駐美代表貼川普助選文 "我不小心的" (北爛)
https://tw.appledaily.com/politics/20201031/7XFEFU5E7ZGHJHTTKRRZ4RL44E/
美大選民進黨押錯寶?林濁水揭窘境:搞到駐美代表見不到拜登重要幕僚
https://www.storm.mg/article/3171835
苗博雅警告是「親共人士的陷阱」(公開說謊)
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2020-11-06/490539
綠營甩鍋 都是柯粉韓粉出征AIT (公開騙人)
https://www.setn.com/News.aspx?NewsID=843959
黨政高層宣稱沒押錯寶 都是國民黨的錯 (公然騙人)
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20201108/1849749.htm
綠營稱民主黨總統會出兵救台灣 (自欺欺人)
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20201106/1848879.htm
https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/3342970
蘇貞昌稱台美關係將越穩固 (騙人騙神騙自己)
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202011080064.aspx
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2020-11-08/490998
2012 presidential election 在 M13 Youtube 的最佳貼文
Tour Taiwan with me: http://taiwantoursm13.com/
Private Channel: https://www.patreon.com/M13
My Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mordeth13
Support M13 buy my Private Series: http://www.m13online.com/?page_id=294
World's best motorcycle pants are RHOK (search Ebay for them) CNN Deceit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TSxm2V8aVQ
Ron Paul Kicking Some Ass: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmagWxsznO8&feature=related
Fox showing an older clip of people booing Ron Paul and pretending it was recent: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUpyeiw56wc&feature=related
CNN trying to humiliate Ron Paul.....and failing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GndBK62rfI&feature=related
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2012 presidential election 在 Obama vs. Romney: The first 2012 presidential debate 的推薦與評價
The 2012 presidential election cycle featured incumbent President Barack Obama, a Democrat, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the ... ... <看更多>