▍運用心智模型衡量局勢
人類的思考需要運用各種心智模型(mental model,又譯為思考模型)。這些模型描繪著現實,能讓我們更容易理解這個世界,看出各種模式、預測事物的發展、瞭解自己遇到什麼狀況。要是沒有這些心智模型,現實對我們來說就像是怒滔洶湧的資訊洪流,又或是各種原始感官體驗與情感的叢林。正是心智模型為我們帶來秩序,讓我們能夠無視不必要的事物而抓住重點—就像在雞尾酒會上,只聽到自己的對話,而不管四周其他人的吱吱喳喳。我們會在腦海中建構出一套現實的模擬,用來預測情況的發展。
雖然我們可能並不自覺,但心智模型時時刻刻都在運作。但也有時候,我們會清楚意識到,自己正運用怎樣的觀點在衡量局勢,而且也能夠刻意堅持觀點或改變觀點。需要做出重大決定的時候(像是換工作、生小孩、買房子、關掉工廠、蓋一棟摩天大樓),就最常有這樣的感受,你會發現自己的決定除了出於客觀邏輯,還會有一些更根本的理由,像是看待當下情境的視角、認定世界運作的方式。而這種潛藏的認知因素,就是由各種心智模型組成的。
我們必須去詮釋這個世界,才能真正存在於這個世界;我們對現實的感知,就會影響我們的行動。這些都是我們早就知道的事情,但也總是覺得理所當然而渾然未覺。
所謂的思考框架(frame),也就是我們所選擇應用的心智模型,會決定我們如何理解世界,也決定我們如何行動。思考框架讓我們能夠歸納類推,得出抽象的概念,再應用到其他的情境當中。這樣一來,我們即使面對新的情境,也有辦法應對,而不需要每次都從頭開始學習。無論何時,思考框架都會默默運作。但我們可以刻意停一下、問問自己:現在我們運用了怎樣的框架?這真的是最適合目前情景的框架嗎?如果答案是否定的,就能去選擇其他更好的框架,或是創造全新的框架。
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▍我們所謂的「框架」
框架(framing)這個詞,在社會科學領域已經談了很多。心理學家康納曼(Daniel Kahneman)和特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)就曾清楚解釋過,對各種結果採用了不同的說法,會影響別人所做的選擇;他們把這稱為「框架效應」(framing effect),並認為這是人類推理的一項缺失。
而在這本書,我們雖然也用了「框架」一詞,但含義卻有所不同:我們指的不是對事物有不同的理解和說法,而是要刻意掌握自己的心智模型,在下決定之前,先發掘出各種選項。面對特定情境,選錯思考框架肯定就會讓決策有所疏漏;雖然如此,建立思考框架仍然是人類為自己賦權賦能的重要能力,能幫助我們理解世界、重塑世界。無論是個人或是整體人類,要是少了這種能力,絕對不會是現在這個樣子。
可能有人會認為,另啟思考框架就好像是典範轉移(paradigm shift),也就是:某個特定領域的主要概念及實務有了根本上的改變。1962 年,科學哲學家孔恩(Thomas Kuhn)就提出主張,認為是一次又一次的典範轉移,推動了科學的進步。
然而,典範轉移和改變思考框架並不完全相同。每次典範轉移,都是在另啟思考框架,像是哥白尼的地動說推翻了托勒密的天動說模型。但是,每次另啟思考框架,卻不一定稱得上是典範轉移;另啟思考框架是一件相對頻繁得多的事。有些時候,改變思考框架會改變整個社會對世界的觀點;但遠遠更為常見的現象是會為個人的生活,帶來一些小小但深遠的改變。
不論是哪一種,如果另啟更適宜的思考框架,就能讓人做出更好的決定,創造更好的局面。
說要建立或改變思考框架,可能讓人覺得很複雜、很困難。這確實需要一點技巧,但人們其實很懂這一套。雖然我們平常不見得意識到這點,但人類幾萬年來一直在建立及改變思考框架。
思考框架並不只是個人的個別觀點,而是我們的基本認知模型。不過,若以「觀點」來打比方,確實有助於瞭解什麼是思考框架。義大利建築師布魯內列斯基(Filippo Brunelleschi)在1420年左右,確立了幾何透視畫法,而在這之前的繪畫是把世界畫成平面,各個物體的位置則是以重要性來決定。是在布魯內列斯基之後,畫家才學到了透視法,學會如何表現深度、如何畫出我們眼睛實際所見的景象。比較這項改變前後的畫作有何不同,有助於理解改變思考框架有何效力。
每個人都會建立自己的思考框架,做出大大小小的各種預測和決定。而這就像是一直進行著某種心理上的時空旅行。有些人就是比別人更善於此道,但不論是誰,也都有一些可以再改進的地方。事實上,是我們每個人都必須有所改進。
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以上文字摘自
《#造局者》
思考框架的威力
Framers: Human Advantage in an Age of Technology and Turmoil
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作者:庫基耶, 麥爾荀伯格, 德菲爾利科德
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各位朋友好:
昨天在贈書直播中,我用我的理解舉了原生家庭與關係的例子,幫助我們更好地了解,思考框架對我們的影響。學習「思考框架」這個概念的重要性,在於覺知:我們如果持續使用不適合的框架,導致痛苦的結果,那是什麼原因阻礙我們使用更合適的思考框架呢?
像這種練頭腦的書,偶爾看看,可以預防失智,強迫思考,也是蠻好的事情。這種自我挑戰,是我自己平常就會做的事,也跟您分享。
祝願您,能建立適宜自己的思考框架!
同時也有3部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過16萬的網紅chungdha,也在其Youtube影片中提到,In this video we are teaching you 2 methods how to fade in a Logo or Text in Adobe Premiere Pro CC for like a Title Intro or Lower Thirds. First we ar...
framing effect 在 IELTS Fighter - Chiến binh IELTS Facebook 的精選貼文
- Luyện Reading, tìm từ vựng hay
MOTIVATIONAL FACTORS AND THE HOSPITALITY INDUSTRY
A critical ingredient in the success of hotels is developing and maintaining superior performance from their employees. How is that accomplished? What Human Resource Management (HRM) practices should organizations invest in to acquire and retain great employees?
Some hotels aim to provide superior working conditions for their employees. The idea originated from workplaces - usually in the non-service sector - that emphasized fun and enjoyment as part of work-life balance. By contrast, the service sector, and more specifically hotels, has traditionally not extended these practices to address basic employee needs, such as good working conditions.
Pfeffer (1994) emphasizes that in order to succeed in a global business environment, organizations must make investment in Human Resource Management (HRM) to allow them to acquire employees who possess better skills and capabilities than their competitors. This investment will be to their competitive advantage. Despite this recognition of the importance of employee development, the hospitality industry has historically been dominated by underdeveloped HR practices (Lucas, 2002).
Lucas also points out that 'the substance of HRM practices does not appear to be designed to foster constructive relations with employees or to represent a managerial approach that enables developing and drawing out the full potential of people, even though employees may be broadly satisfied with many aspects of their work' (Lucas, 2002). In addition, or maybe as a result, high employee turnover has been a recurring problem throughout the hospitality industry. Among the many cited reasons are low compensation, inadequate benefits, poor working conditions and compromised employee morale and attitudes (Maroudas et al., 2008).
Ng and Sorensen (2008) demonstrated that when managers provide recognition to employees, motivate employees to work together, and remove obstacles preventing effective performance, employees feel more obligated to stay with the company. This was succinctly summarized by Michel et al. (2013): '[P]roviding support to employees gives them the confidence to perform their jobs better and the motivation to stay with the organization.' Hospitality organizations can therefore enhance employee motivation and retention through the development and improvement of their working conditions. These conditions are inherently linked to the working environment.
While it seems likely that employees' reactions to their job characteristics could be affected by a predisposition to view their work environment negatively, no evidence exists to support this hypothesis (Spector et al., 2000). However, given the opportunity, many people will find something to complain about in relation to their workplace (Poulston, 2009). There is a strong link between the perceptions of employees and particular factors of their work environment that are separate from the work itself, including company policies, salary and vacations.
Such conditions are particularly troubling for the luxury hotel market, where high-quality service, requiring a sophisticated approach to HRM, is recognized as a critical source of competitive advantage (Maroudas et al., 2008). In a real sense, the services ofhotel employees represent their industry (Schneider and Bowen, 1993). This representation has commonly been limited to guest experiences. This suggests that there has been a dichotomy between the guest environment provided in luxury hotels and the working conditions of their employees.
It is therefore essential for hotel management to develop HRM practices that enable them to inspire and retain competent employees. This requires an understanding of what motivates employees at different levels of management and different stages of their careers (Enz and Siguaw, 2000). This implies that it is beneficial for hotel managers to understand what practices are most favorable to increase employee satisfaction and retention.
Herzberg (1966) proposes that people have two major types of needs, the first being extrinsic motivation factors relating to the context in which work is performed, rather than the work itself. These include working conditions and job security. When these factors are unfavorable, job dissatisfaction may result. Significantly, though, just fulfilling these needs does not result in satisfaction, but only in the reduction of dissatisfaction (Maroudas et al., 2008).
Employees also have intrinsic motivation needs or motivators, which include such factors as achievement and recognition. Unlike extrinsic factors, motivator factors may ideally result in job satisfaction (Maroudas et al., 2008). Herzberg's (1966) theory discusses the need for a 'balance' of these two types of needs.
The impact of fun as a motivating factor at work has also been explored. For example, Tews, Michel and Stafford (2013) conducted a study focusing on staff from a chain of themed restaurants in the United States. It was found that fun activities had a favorable impact on performance and manager support for fun had a favorable impact in reducing turnover.
Their findings support the view that fun may indeed have a beneficial effect, but the framing of that fun must be carefully aligned with both organizational goals and employee characteristics. 'Managers must learn how to achieve the delicate balance of allowing employees the freedom to enjoy themselves at work while simultaneously maintaining high levels of performance' (Tews et al., 2013).
Deery (2008) has recommended several actions that can be adopted at the organizational level to retain good staff as well as assist in balancing work and family life. Those particularly appropriate to the hospitality industry include allowing adequate breaks during the working day, staff functions that involve families, and providing health and well-being opportunities.
Các từ vựng nổi bật:
critical (adj): then chốt
superior (adj): tốt hơn
accomplish (adj): trọn vẹn
retain (v): giữ lại
by contrast: ngược lại
extend (v): kéo dài
emphasize (v): nhấn mạnh
investment (n): đầu tư
competitive (adj): cạnh tranh
recognition (n): sự công nhận
substance (n): cốt lõi
foster (v): thúc đẩy
constructive (adj): có tính xây dựng
managerial (adj): thuộc quản lý
potential (n): tiềm năng
turnover (n): nghỉ việc
compensation (n): lương
morale (n): tinh thần
obstacle (n): chướng ngại
succinctly (adv): súc tích
retention (n): sự duy trì
predisposition (n): khuynh hướng thiên về
separate (adj): riêng biệt
sophisticated (adj): phức tạp
dichotomy (n): sự lưỡng phân
extrinsic (adj): từ bên ngoài
intrinsic (adj): từ bên trong
align (v): sắp hàng
delicate (adj): tinh tế
simultaneously (adv): đồng thời
adequate (adj): đầy đủ
break (n): giờ giải lao
Các bạn cùng tham khảo nhé!
framing effect 在 普通人的自由主義 Facebook 的最佳貼文
振興券辯論之一
我「沒頭沒臉」,想和柯文哲辯論振興券有沒有效,大概也被當成「沒唸書」。我雖然不學無術,但經濟學文獻,肯定是比柯文哲懂的,為正視聽,讓我自己進行一場單人紙上辯論,解釋為什麼「三倍振興券」很好。
問:馬政府2008年發消費券,民進黨砲轟沒效。蔡英文換了位子,就換了腦袋,馬英九不行,為什麼自己發振興券就可以?
答:如果振興券和消費券長得一樣,那民進黨當然該受批評,不長進只能拾人牙慧,還抄一個「失敗」的政策,該罵。但消費券和振興券不一樣,時空不一樣,政策內容也不一樣,根本不該混為一談。一個治病的藥,吃的劑量不一樣,吃的時程不一樣,甚至是診斷的症狀不一樣,都會有不同的結果。同樣是政府發錢,發法不一樣,效果當然可能不一樣。人民真正該害怕的,不是政治人物換了位子就換了腦袋,而是不會從過往失敗裡學習,從中尋找改進之道。民進黨政府的振興券,就著過往問題,提出新的解決方案,全球獨到,先不管成效,在政策制定上,就已經是進步了。反觀國民黨,不但沒有從消費券的問題裡學習,反而加碼過去的錯誤,還主張發現金,沒有進步的國民黨,輸了一褲子,都換了位子,還不換腦袋,才令人害怕。
問:所以振興券如何解決替代效應問題?和消費券,或是現金有什麼不一樣?
答:這樣的問題,就比較有水準了。發錢無用論的理論來源,是傅利曼大師的Permanent Income Hypothesis(PIH),主要就是說,人在決定消費行為的時候,會把一生的所得拿來一併考量,盡量讓收入和支出,以一個平穩的方式進行,不要一年吃飽飽,隔一年餓肚子。在這樣理性的考量下,突來的現金補貼收入,不會被當成是一筆天外飛來的財富,非花掉不可,而是存起來,提高未來整體的消費水準。如果人人都照PIH來思考,政府發的錢,就會被存起來,而沒有刺激景氣的效果。
小布希政府在2009年,金融風暴時發的一戶800美元現金,果如PIH預測一樣,消費幾乎沒有因為收入增加而提升。人民前途茫茫,工作都不知道有沒有得保,錢不存起來,還買新手機嗎?馬政府的消費券,在設計上比現金好,至少強迫要拿出來用,但因為消費品項沒有限制,民眾把它拿來買平常會買的東西,反而把平常的花費存起來。這個替代效應,據估算超過九成,消費券幾乎完全被當成現金補貼了。
但唐鳳設計的振興券,不但消費品項有限制,已經先部份擋住了替代效應,要民眾拿一千出來換三千之舉,更是逼迫消費的絕妙好技。這之中至少牽涉到兩個行為經濟學的改變行為效應。第一種叫Mental accounting(腦內會計,和House effect賭場效應類似),逢年過節有小賭一下的民眾,大概都知道,同樣的一百元、一千元,平常可以拿來吃東西、買東西,很珍惜,但一旦上了牌桌,錢好像就不是錢,人的腦子,會自動把錢分類,而低估了牌桌上的錢的價值。拿了一千換來的三千,多的兩千,好像是撿來的錢,「隨便花」,應該是不少人會有想法。當然,柯文哲這麼理性,這麼異於常人,當然不承認有這種效應存在。
另外的一個行為經濟學效應,叫framing(框架效應,這裡的中文,都是我亂翻的,我們這些沒唸書的,只會看英文文獻,還請有唸書的大德,指教一下)。同樣是政府花兩千,兩千直接打到你戶頭,和拿一千換三千,那是不一樣的感覺。消費券會被當成現金存起來,振興券卻會被當成百貨公司的禮券花掉,差別就在於這個「拿一千出來」的動作。當然,買東西都是佩琪在買,與實體經濟活動脫節的柯文哲,完全沒有辦法想像這些「非理性」行為,自然認為是無效的。
振興券的新花招,讓好多商家,平白多出許多的點子,來配合促銷,這也是消費券看不到的額外效應。柯文哲本來不也打算加碼?現在又罵無效。位子沒換,腦袋一直換,到底要聽哪一個柯文哲講話?
問:廢話那麼多,到底振興券會增加多少GDP?
答:總經政策沒辦法實驗,只能用模型推估。馬政府估算的2008消費券,大概增加了0.5%的GDP。模型參數不同,結果就會不同。但從上面的分析來看,振興券的效果一定會比消費券好。而且現在的經濟情勢,遠比2008年那種不知未來的情況好。世界雖然因為武漢肺炎停擺,但現在已經逐漸恢復。而台灣不但安全,還一直吸納出走中國的製造業商機,真正受疫情傷害的,就是缺乏國際觀光客的國內消費,振興券打蛇打七寸,刺激景氣效果當然超過無差別打水漂的消費券。
如果最後的經費支出類似消費券,也許可以達到1%的效果。在全世界一片景氣低迷的時候,可以用相對輕鬆的手法,製造出1%的GDP成長,那是很好的事。當然這些數字都是推估,最後2020年台灣的經濟指數,多少是來自振興券,沒有人可以說得準。
羅斯福總統在一九三零年代,面對經濟大蕭條,採取了許多前史未見的新政策,統稱「新政」。這些政策,很多最後證明都是垃圾,但經濟學家不管立場與背景,都同意一點,羅斯福的政府不因為政策的失敗,就停手不進行新政策的嚐試。一個政府面對困境,要發想解決方法,研究可行方案,不斷努力,不斷嚐試,才能帶給人民希望,不是事情不如己願,就怪東怪西,在民主社會還嫌棄民眾水準不夠,對,就是在說你,柯文哲。振興券有這麼多的好處,但最大的好處,是這個政府,沒有陷入「無招」的困境,反而用創意,帶給人民希望,配合世界一流的防疫政策,台灣人民相信國家會向上,有希望的人民,才會放膽消費,這才是該給振興券拍拍手的真正理由。
問:這麼好用,年年來發振興券?
答:我第一個拍手叫好。如果你以為傅利曼了解人性,所以有PIH,所以一定反對政府發錢,那你就錯了。發振興券,是實質減稅,傅利曼說,「任何」的減稅都是好的,因為減少政府可用資源,才是削減政府規模的長久之道。政府永遠在變大,如果不讓這怪獸餓一下,不可能縮小。如果政府年年發振興券,要籌措財源,就要減少支出,那當然是好事。
但又要馬兒好,又要馬兒不吃草的柯文哲,坐擁台北大金庫,不用管撙節支出,才會隨便加碼振興券。但你要中央政府年年發振興券,是要砍哪一個部門的預算?少撥一點給你蓋社會住宅,還是鄉下地方不要蓋捷運,又或者是把國防部預算砍多一點,讓敵人輕鬆一點攻台?
非常時期,用非常手段,那是當家的人,得想辦法的不得已。年年發振興券,很好,但先把要砍的預算,列出來,好好吵一吵。沒頭沒臉的經濟學家,樂見其成。
(後面還有幾個自辯自答,待續,也歡迎讀者朋友留言提問,一併回答)
framing effect 在 chungdha Youtube 的最佳貼文
In this video we are teaching you 2 methods how to fade in a Logo or Text in Adobe Premiere Pro CC for like a Title Intro or Lower Thirds. First we are showing a very very quick way that uses the Default transition short cut that automatically adds an IN /OUT cross dissolve to the text or Logo. The 2nd way we show you a more professional cinematic fade in method with key framing a ramp speed and adding also a blur dissolve using Gaussian blur.
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framing effect 在 chungdha Youtube 的最佳解答
This tutorial I am showing you how to add composition guides in Premiere Pro to help you reframe your shots better especially when filming in 4k and outputting a 1080p video, as inside Premiere Pro there are not a lot of guide options. And it includes several Cinemascope widescreen letterboxing to get your video the cinematic look with aspect ratio of 21:9 , 2.35:1 and 2:40:1 . These can be applied to any 16:9 sequences and will rescale itself to the sequence and enable to be used on any resolutions.
To download the templates please follow this link: http://www.chungdha.nl/?p=4275
Improve rendering heavy effects in Premiere pro:
https://youtu.be/ByR_9ul8rVk
This video was edited with Adobe Premiere Pro - http://goo.gl/k2EagF
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framing effect 在 chungdha Youtube 的最佳貼文
Releasing a Polaroid Title Template which you can use in Adobe Premiere Pro. As its a title you can scale it and use it inside Premiere without any details lost also you can adapt the shape of this template.
For the Polaroid Title Template please follow this link: http://www.chungdha.nl/?p=4181
Also check out my other Premiere Pro tutorials and free presets here: http://www.chungdha.nl/?cat=129
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