Lps 10 thn kahwin, aku br perasan suami ada group secret adik beradiknya yg x da aku. Rupanya ipar2 umpat aku mls basuh pinggan.
mls 2021 在 Facebook 的最讚貼文
[試下唔好射地波,射佢上三路]咁易咩閘師傅~~~~
1. 唔係講笑,Patreon嘅每日一圖,早排真係貼過呢張(實情我早幾年都貼過一次),幾咁益智。Patreon就唔係講波嘅,但十二碼向來都係經濟L數L鍾意研究嘅課題。
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2. Quite simply,識射梗係射高波。正如意大利對西班牙時講波佬話頭,除非你講明射嗰個位,否則龍門近乎冇得救。你見射咗400幾球十二碼,得4球高波畀人救到。
3. 「會射出街嘛天才,冇撚踢過波咪撚獻世啦」。係喎,我唔知呀可。你自己慢慢數,after adjusted for 射出街,都仲係射高波嘅命中率高一截。呢個研究亦都係well known(雖然好多人睇唔起啲數據撚,但你估人地白出糧的?),應該所有球員都知。近一兩屆我見好似多咗球員射高波,但似乎仲唔係太多。
4. 你可以合理地質疑,本身夠膽射高波嗰班就係藝高人膽大,本身就係勁啲嘅球員,根本射地波都入。而本身射地波嘅就係屎波淆底,你叫佢去射高波一樣會炒飛機。你可以質疑球員能力同射邊度唔係independent 的。
5. 當然我肯定係紙上談兵,我呢啲手無叫雞之力嘅肥佬書生。「話射高就射高咩,你咁叻你去射一次丫」,但,我地討論緊全地球最優秀嘅運動員下話?要求高啲唔過份者。
6. 我懷疑都係同啲心理有關,射飛機炒上觀眾席,陰影大過畀人救到好多。前者嘅,你唔多唔少都係罪人。後者嘅,比較多人記得龍門神救。(雖然,1996年大家都係記得修夫基多,從來冇乜人話哥普基係英雄,可能係英國傳媒獨有生態。又,今屆修夫基就踢咗高普基出局了,唔知有冇傾計)
7. 亦都好多人知道,射中間命中率高,但好少球員夠膽咁做。你係派路咪大師,你係陳七咪低能仔,射中間畀龍接到,呢個球員第二日就會畀你啲網友狂鬧,「我落去踢都得」,分分鐘影響埋轉會身價。同樣地,亦都好少龍門夠膽企中間,因為企定定唔做,又係畀啲網友狂笑,「我落去守都得,放塊紙板好過」。所以守龍員係傾向do something,好合理。
8. 呢度亦有唔少人寫過,同投資類似。好多人都係有呢種do something嘅bias,升咗又覺得要take profit,跌咗又要止蝕。因為冇做任何嘢而出事,好似大鑊過有做過。但投資就肯定唔係咁,多做先多錯。以前蝕佣蝕bid ask都輸你唔少,而家佣低,反而啲人更加鍾意不停上上落落。一個好簡單嘅例子:啲人買樓可以坐得長食到十倍廿倍升浪,因為樓嘅交易費用太高,又唔方便。
9. 然後呢個劊子手同守門員嘅博奕,你又9格佢又9格(有啲model整到15格),就係典型嘅game theory了,呀西班牙佬(其實係巴斯克,Ignacio Palacios-Huerta)寫咗唔少論文,LSE喎大佬,好認真嘅學問。佢就真係十二碼研究大師,佢認第二冇人認第一。See?真係搵到你嘅niche就得。
10. 呀仲有,早幾日自己Facebook 都提過,同十三張差不多,你揀5條友射,亦都有研究過,第一同第五個壓力最大,亦最易失,所以應該放最強嘅人射第一同第五。你見對西班牙,意大利都係放盧卡迪尼第一,佐真奴第五,兩個似乎都係相當有把握嘅(雖然,盧卡迪尼都射失)。正如意大利對英格蘭都係佐真奴守尾門(雖然,係失嘅)。咁所以,有啲朋友鬧點解搵英格蘭Saka射第五,應該係合理嘅質疑。
11. 以上種種只係皮毛,射十二碼絶對有學問,不過真係同你平時踼波要求嘅係唔同嘅嘢。Economist 上期都有提到,實在係有點無聊,但個戲劇性又真係太強,所以都仲係保留。固然可以玩咩中場帶波射龍(以前MLS好似玩過),或者加時每5分鐘換走一個人(最後變成2打2甚至1打1都幾好笑)。但,似乎都係十二碼過癮。公唔公平就另一回事。
12. 歡迎批評,不過都係循例講返,LSE教授呀下,Economist嘅文。雖然,佢篇話「先射有優勢」嘅文,近期似乎畀人質疑得幾緊要。Technically 似乎因為佢好多數據都係用西班牙盃,扭曲咗。而你睇返世界盃 歐國盃,又真係先射唔見好有優勢。有機會再寫。
13. BTW,其實我係寫緊Patreon週末文的。你看見「唔使返工真好」,我看見「Patreon就係返工」。真的,我寫Patreon用嘅時間,多過我返工真係做嘢嘅時間 — 咁所以,最無敵嘅組合,梗係返工寫Patreon!有一排咪咁,可惜世間好物不堅牢,彩雲易散琉璃脆。
14. 於是我就被迫成為咗全職炒散,Accidental Content Creator(下本書就用呢個名,如果仲有下本的話)。
15. 雖然,我都係好懷念返工有人出錢畀你屙屎嘅日子,呢啲快樂真係未返過Office工唔知。應該好似Freakonomics咁,統計下啲人在公司同在屋企爆石用嘅時間爭幾遠。
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mls 2021 在 Facebook 的最佳解答
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1. https://cuoi.tuoitre.vn/giai-tri/viet-huong-tro-lai-man-anh-voi-vai-ba-hoi-dong-ac-khong-ai- bang-2021051426060415.html
2. https://m.vietnamnet.vn/vn/giai-tri/truyen-hinh/viet-huong-tai-xuat-phim-truyen-hinh-vai-ba-hoi-dong-nhan-tam-737053.html
3. https://www.sggp.org.vn/viet-huong-tai-xuat-khan-gia-voi-vai-phan-dien-732022.html
4. https://laodong.vn/van-hoa/viet-huong-thu-doan-muu-mo-khi-tro-lai-hinh-anh-ba-hoi-dong-duoc-lam-moi-909300.ldo
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85. https://cuoi.tuoitre.vn/giai-tri/viet-huong-tro-lai-man-anh-voi-vai-ba-hoi-dong-ac-khong-ai-bang-2021051426060415.html
86. http://vanhoadautu.vn/van-hoa/3163-clip-hoang-map-tao-nen-cap-doi-viet-huong-huy-khanh-ac-cung-cuc-trong-duong-the-bao-la-sau-.html
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