[The poorer you are, the more frequent that you see ghost]穆迪下調匯控(HSBC)(*)評級喎,冇乜見人講?
TLDR:核爆級云云,當然係呃你的。睇股價咪知,唔呃人,99%情況,股價反映晒任何已知發生嘅嘢,人類智慧總和。咁寫當然係諷刺而家啲友,濫用強烈嘅詞語,同落重調味一樣,係作者冇信心嘅表現。
1. 實情十分合理,預咗,所以對股價應該零影響。早幾日下調咗大英帝國主權評級,咁銀行就差不多一定接住。除咗匯控,仲有萊斯(官方譯名叫駿懋),桑坦德都一齊。
2. 至於RBS皇家蘇格蘭(其實而家係國民西敏NatWest)點解冇份?唔知,因為一早係國企?但,都係分開評級的(正如四大中資行同中國主權評級都分開),況且早幾日大英帝國被下調時都唔覺有郁NatWest
3. 下調英國評級嘛,都係嗰幾味。經濟差,債重,保就業但錢從何來?。本人不止一次寫過,MMT(Modern Monetary Theory)係金融巫術。如果你認為真係work嘅,不妨諗下,如果國家可以不停用本幣發債而冇任何後果—咁,仲使乜收稅?
4. 又,換著香港?又成班乜柒學者出嚟講,嘩,發債成本大升呀,利息開支加呀,雪上加霜呀,惡性循環dead spiral呀,外資拋售呀,好多基金要睇住信貸評級呀。
5. 係咯,係咁簡單就好。你不妨睇下美國上次被下調評級後,融資成本有冇升到。「美國點同!」。咁你可以睇下英國,或者香港。再唔係睇下希臘國債而家幾多厘息,睇下見唔見到大嶼山。
6. 又又又真係要講,「評級機構都好信嘅?」。正如今期流行嘅「民調都好信?」,的確,「評級機構都好信?」。中文唔好(英文更差),但即係,credit rating agency 頂多can suggest a price, but cannot enforce it.
7. 實情呢句「評級機構都好信?」,質疑極有道理。雷曼債都AAA啦,係咪?之後的確評級機構大受評擊,政府話要整治云云—轉眼間雷曼爆煲12年,唔知整治咗乜。穆迪當年20蚊,而家300,不停創新高。
8. 事實上呢個商業模式幾好,同Visa/Master一樣,穆迪同標準普洱Duopoly,但因為穆迪「只係」520億美金市值(Visa嘅十份一),一般人根本唔會接觸到,所以唔會畀政府搞。如果信咩共濟呀郭文貴呀阿波羅新聞嗰啲,咁穆迪直頭係美國金融大殺傷力武器添,點會搞佢?「咁點解穆迪下調美國評級?」「苦肉計呀,冇聽過呀?」
9. 以上種種,當然Patreon寫過,可以去訂(https://bit.ly/31QmYj7)。冇錢?買Moody’s啦,都話上市公司。
10. 冇時間睇?「唔緊要,照科水就得」。講真的。今日同讀者食飯,講話到埃汾畀人炒魷(你覺得冇呢一日?再鋒利嘅刀都會生鏽,況且我又唔係未畀人炒過),就應該可以扮村上春樹咁,日本又住幾個月,韓國又住幾個月,泰國又住幾個月咁。靠嘅除咗係科技,當然就係眾多讀者支持。諗到呢度真係令我覺得好幸福。「但未開關喎」「咁……一晚在麗晶大賓館,一晚在麗晶酒店都得嘅」
(*)嚴格嚟講,係HSBC嘅英國unit.係喎,香港又分另一個評級的。因為發債係間銀行發,一般唔係HSBC Group發(得吾得架呢?好似唔得)。唔止講過一次,你做銀行同業嘅,你拆錢畀DBS Bank Hong Kong Branch 同DBS(HK)已經係兩回事。有限公司嘛,理論上後者執笠,前者完全唔使承擔任何債務。Vodafone嗰時阿根廷subsid爭落一身街數,母公司都係有得佢的。並冇母公司要上身呢回事。
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Ivan Patreon 狼耳街華人,一星期至少三篇港美市場評點,一個月一舊水唔使,開張兩個月已600人訂!仲有兩篇免費試睇:https://bit.ly/31QmYj7
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instagram @ivanliresearch.七成金融(短打)兩成嘢食一成其他嘢。
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[收費短片第十擊]人民幣升值受惠股,美股二線科技股揭秘
課程資訊:https://homebloggerhk.com/course_detail/?code=CC010
內容:
*軟件股IPO狂潮
*買平台股好過
*人民幣強勢買咩好?
本星期內特惠售價: $80
課程編號:CC010
觀看期限:首次播放後一星期及限每影片4次
客服whatsapp: 63832145
natwest group 在 TMBA Facebook 的最佳貼文
【友社活動分享】
台大證研這次邀請到CFA亞太區總裁來台大交流分享,歡迎大家有空報名參加~
[CFA協會 x 臺大證研-亞太區總裁Nick Pollard台大交流會]
這次很榮幸邀請到投資界知名協會CFA的亞太區總裁Nick Pollard先生來台大進行交流,免費報名,機會難得!!!這次總裁將會分享投資界未來的就業趨勢,對於講師或者CFA協會或是課程主題有興趣的各位千萬別錯過!!
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報名連結:https://goo.gl/forms/6RRugQ0OSVImLxV93
時間:12/7(五) 中午12:20-13:20
地點:臺大新生大樓103教室
演講主題:FUTURE STATE OF THE INVESTMENT PROFESSION
名額:100位(採報名制,現場提供免費便當)
講師介紹:
Nick Pollard joined CFA Institute in 2016 as managing director for Asia Pacific. Based in the Hong Kong office, he also oversees operations in Beijing, China and Mumbai, India. Nick is responsible for working with all CFA Institute stakeholders, increasing the number of candidates entering and moving through the organization’s credentialing programs, and working with institutional partners (employers, universities and regulators) throughout the region. He is actively engaged with 21 CFA Institute societies that represent 28,000 members in the region.
Nick is a seasoned wealth management and banking executive and skilled at growing businesses in Europe and Asia. He brings a unique combination of strategic leadership skills as well as learning and professional development expertise. Prior to joining CFA Institute, Nick was CEO of The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Coutts Asia division and, most recently, he was the Head of International Learning and Professional Development for Coutts International. Nick began his career with NatWest Group, subsequently part of the RBS Group, where he gained experience in marketing and talent development.
Nick earned his B.A. from University College, London and is a Member of the Private Wealth Management Association. He has lived and worked in the APAC region since 2009 and resides in Hong Kong.
*講者主要以英文進行,他也表達希望是以"互相交流"的形式來進行活動,所以希望大家不要只是來領免費便當的喔~
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