[加拿大概念股嘅嘢]純金融討論。非曲,如果有錢我真係買,可惜冇錢。
1. 有冇得諗?你睇第一張圖就梗係話升咗咁多仲買。但只要我一轉第二張圖,就會變咗係好抵買,幾咁易就可以誤導你。你係炒momentum嘅,就畀第一張你睇。你係懶係value investor嘅(*),就畀第二張你睇。我?我買嗰時好多時都唔睇股價的。
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已經2000人訂!多謝大家!Two thousand people can't be wrong!(扯,幾百萬人冇訂添!).下一個目標當然係攞你命3000!
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一週年!比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100. 畀年費仲有85折,20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
3. 正經,雖然柏林牌同德國寶係香港嘢(**),加拿大鵝就真係加拿大公司。你見我貼都係TSE多倫多交易所,個股市成交唔少的。你心諗,點買加拿大股?首先,開個IB戶口就可以。不過又其實,隻嘢在美國都有上市嘅,買美股咪得。兩邊都係叫GOOS。
4. 全球暖化喎,仲羽絨?但你見隻波司登 3998股價都好勁的,估佢唔到。
5. 不過加拿大鵝就只係細公司,即使在加拿大,市值都排到近100.最大嘅係邊間?可能你都估唔到,就係……Shopify。一樣,加拿大上市美國亦都上,兩邊都叫SHOP,個編號都幾值錢。本人有買的
6. 加拿大仲有乜有趣嘅公司?實在係冇乜。一大抽都係啲悶嘢,銀行(RBC呀 Dominion呀CIBC呀Bank of Nova Scotia呀Bank of Montreal呀之類,做銀行時成日對),保險(宏利永明),石油開礦。不過都仲有幾間有趣嘅公司。
7. 第一間係Lululemon,我好早已經聽過啦!仲係個麻甩佬話我知的。當然係冇買啦。呢間就加拿大冇上市,只在美國上。留意仲要係上Nasdaq,夠晒高科技(其實Nasdaq都冇話係高科技)
8. 仲有路邊社個friend 路透社,原本英國公司,後來Thomson Reuters.畀加拿大買起咗。睇名都知,同多蒙特德國名宿路達撞名,冇錯就係一條叫路透嘅德國人搞出嚟的。路透社成立相當傳奇,最初都係靠財經資訊,即係股價,但用乜?電報?電話?你太年青了。最初係用…….信鴿!幾百隻的。快過當時嘅火車。而呢檔嘢搞出嚟,仲同德國數學王子高斯(Carl Friedrich Gauss)有關(***)
9. 仲有就係Restaurant Brands International,上市編號QSR(快餐店呀!),夠值錢,又係加拿大同美國一齊上。乜水?Burger King同Popyee炸雞
10. 仲有,BB,Black Berry,實在有啲難解釋畀新一代係乜。大哥電話佢地睇戲見過,以前撥輪式電話都可能在舊嘢舖頭見過。BB呢味嘢,真係有啲難解。想當年拎住部就真係金融才俊。本人都有幸用過,但好後期了,已經係touch screen,唔及以前有埋個qwerty Keyboard咁有型。而家好似冇出機了,做軟件,後來在星展都用過。又,間嘢原本叫Research in Motion,RIM,但係冇Research部門的。呢間夠煩,美國加拿大上市,但用唔同編號的。本人有一股咁大把,「富途開戶送的」
11. 仲有Canopy Growth 同Tilray,大麻股呀。美國未係十分合法嘛,所以全部都加拿大上的。
12. 仲有間Bombardier龐巴迪,飛機火車雪車。以前好似寫過。跌到趴街,一度得返100億港市值,同間1137差不多。後來又重組又賣嘢先走出困境
13. 而以上全部公司,都係大過加拿大鵝嘅。
(*)當年就個個都話自己係value investor,而家就個個都係growth investor disruption start up 由零到一,劏寫字樓都話高科技公司
(**)仲有間「德國上將」,聽名都型。
(***)冇法,每次講高斯都係要講呢個故事,唔係佢兩秒鐘就知道由1加到100係5050嘅故事,而係德國馬克嘅故事。德國10馬克(我屋企仲有一張)上面,印咗佢個樣。冇乜特別丫。但仲印埋高斯嘅名物:Normal distribution curver.都冇乜特別丫。不過,就連嗰條公式都印埋上去!(https://bityl.co/8qUh)。英國讀書時某老嘢教授講起呢個故事,大讚德國人呢啲先係尊重學問嘅民族,佢話佢就冇見過有第個國家整條公式上銀紙。後來有人話我知,瑞士(咪即係德國!)都有一套歐拉,唔係outline,歐拉Euler係個一人,《Imitation Game》套戲講數學家,居然讀錯Euler,認真抵打。而講開Imitation Game,新版英鎊就有圖靈,仲印埋公式了。肯定係聽咗老嘢教授講。
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已經2000人訂!多謝大家!Two thousand people can't be wrong!(扯,幾百萬人冇訂添!).下一個目標當然係攞你命3000!
==============
一週年!比別人知得多。subscribe now(https://bityl.co/4Y0h)。Ivan Patreon,港美市場評點,專題號外,每日一圖,好文推介。每星期6篇,月費100. 畀年費仲有85折,20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
rbc bank 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳解答
🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻,初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示,在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%,市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金,以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者,都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊,他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場,所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上,SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元,高於一年前的約1,000億美元,反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此,今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠,扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域,其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環,因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價,投資者就更有可能這樣做,而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前,在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中,超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少,讓其更難實現業務目標,並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
rbc bank 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
🌻想起去年這個時候, 已經是返台過年後, 抵美的日子. 時間過得好快. 而疫情已經陪伴我們超過一年了.
就要過農曆新年了. 祝大家在牛年平安, 如意, 健康, 快樂, 財運亨通. 送大家澳洲牛年金幣一枚☺(請見圖)
🌻美國生活
早就耳聞Izaax的大名. 這次他的分享會, 因為是線上, 所以在股友的號召(慫恿?)下, 我也參與了線上搶名額的活動. 怎麼感覺是在搶演唱會的票 😅 不過如果有機會能夠參與一下, 也挺好.
這周好冷. 冰雪奇緣的Anna也終於將雪帶入本區了. 照片中的溫度是華式, 不是攝氏.
#ROKU
不知道大家周末有沒有看Super Bowl呢? 我其實很久沒看了, 這次因為疫情在家, 沒事做, 所以看了前半部. 而不只我有這樣的情況. 這次的Super Bowl, 不僅觀眾人數破了去年的紀錄, 也是第一個有超過10億串流分鐘數的Super Bowl. 這是今天Roku大漲的主因.
(P.S. 目前Roku的股價已經很貴了, 所以建議現在才考慮進場的讀者要小心.)
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30866922/super-bowl-cbs-draws-audience-964-million-viewers
"CBS said Sunday's championship was the most live-streamed NFL game, averaging 5.7 million viewers per minute, up 65% from last year's Super Bowl. It was also the first NFL game to deliver more than 1 billion total streaming minutes."
從這網站可以看到全部的Super Bowl廣告. 很多上市公司都有廣告:
https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/commercials
而這次的Super Bowl, 是Tom Brady到Tampa Bay Buccaneers的第一場Super Bowl(他是誰? 明星八卦一下: 名模吉賽兒是他的太座).
稱他為史上最厲害的美式足球四分衛, 應該一點也不為過. "讓夢想覺醒的四項約定"是他一讀再讀的書之一.
四項約定為何?
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/02/02082021-tom-brady.html#more
而看了一家社群公司的財報後, 順手找了一下跟IDFA相關的新聞.
How iOS 14 IDFA changes will benefit CTV
https://adtechexplained.com/how-ios14-idfa-changes-will-benefit-ctv-ott/
“Once the mobile IDFA is gone, and desktop cookies soon after, advertisers will pay a premium (較高的價格) to conduct this type of advanced audience targeting on the CTV big screen. The conflict of interest present with Apple's IDFA will never exist for Roku, Amazon, Samsung and other TV manufacturers.”
🌻最近花了不少時間在看財報, 所以下面一些內容, 都是從財報中得到的靈感&產生的想法.
#Chegg.com (CHGG)
營收成長: 2018: 26%, 2019: 28%, 2020: 57%, 2021(預估): 21-23%
CHGG的跑道還很長是無庸置疑的. 甚至可以拿來存股. 高層的財測也有可能是保守估計.
它應該也算是income inequality概念股(要有好學歷, 才能找到高薪的工作). 而我也覺得, 它的產品對大學生來說, 是個無法拋棄(indispensable)的東西. Why? 因為美國大學生如果有學貸, 費用都很驚人. 要順利畢業, 趕快找到好工作來賺錢, 那花點小錢用它們的產品, why not?
#Peloton(PTON)
這次的財報, 高層也有提到疫情後, 人們是否會繼續在家運動的事情. 我比較同意一種說法, 就是大家還是會想要去gym. 不過這不代表它以後的業績不會好就是.
#對Spotify(SPOT)的觀察
SPOT好幾次的財務目標都沒有達標. 在看了一些書後, 我現在其實在想, 他們的目標設定跟執行力有沒有甚麼問題?
而最近Spotify上面的廣告很多, 弄得我很煩. 我也因此以為會有不少免費用戶會轉到訂閲制. 但從數據我看不出來有這現象.
🌻以下是一些投資ideas. 提供給有興趣的讀者參考&進一步研究.
#Affirm(AFRM)
最近在雷達上的一家公司是Affirm(AFRM). 他們是幫公司做"Buy Now Pay Later"(分期付款? 先享受後付款?)的公司. 創辦人的背景很有趣, 挺建議對FinTech有興趣的讀者研究這家公司. 不過他們做的東西, PYPL也有在做就是. 所以這兩家可以一起看.
(P.S. 這是剛上市的IPO, 所以股價波動也很大. 對這種類股沒有經驗的讀者請注意. 如果沒有興趣, 了解公司的商業模式也挺不錯.)
前兩天AFRM 的IPO quite period結束了後, 各投行紛紛給出了評價:
Initiated by Deutsche Bank Hold USD 120
Initiated by Morgan Stanley Overweight USD 142
Initiated by Credit Suisse Neutral USD 105
Initiated by RBC Capital Outperform USD 130
Initiated by Goldman Sachs Neutral USD 95
Initiated by Barclays Overweight USD 132
Initiated by Truist Securities Buy USD 160
#Vroom(VRM)
這是家販售二手車的電商. 其他的二手車電商還有Carvana, etc. (是的, 有好多家).
“研究機構IHS Markit估計,上游晶片缺貨將使今年第一季全球汽車產量減少67.2萬台,且情況恐怕延續到秋天。” 這跟二手車有沒有關係呢?
而上周一大漲, 也是因為有新聞報導, Ballie Gifford買入了10million shares.
二手車是民生消費品中, 電商滲透率還很低的品項.
有沒有投資商機呢? 供有興趣的讀者參考&進一步研究.
🌻附上本周發表財報的公司一覽表.
Pictures來源:
https://www.truney.com/product/mau00259/
earningswhispers https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a32082189/gisele-bundchen-tom-brady-note-unhappy-marriage/
rbc bank 在 RBC - Home | Facebook 的推薦與評價
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