關於 a herd of cows ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

［新界隻牛夠勤力，而且炒股票叻過你］是真的，挪威啲牛揀股叻過專家

1. 留意投資嘅都會聽過「馬騮掟飛標」嘅故事，主要係認為市場完全有效嘅，基金經理收費太貴嘅，根本只係好彩嘅，就會講馬騮掟飛標揀股票，出嚟成績勝過唔少基金經理（特別係扣除開支後），亦都有人玩過

2. 今次去到挪威，電視台搵咗兩間券商，一個神婆（星相學家），兩個美容Blogger，同埋……幾隻牛。去揀股票。每日畀10000挪威克朗，只限買挪威股，三個月後睇下邊個最叻。

3. 原理就係呢張相，挪威奧斯陸指數剛好25隻（好彩唔係羅素2000），就將草地分25份，睇下啲牛去邊食草，就當揀股。即係好似當年德國八爪魚保羅預測世界盃咁

4. 結果，幾隻牛就主要揀咗能源股。券商呢，當然認為自己知得多，揀咗幾間公司，包括三文魚公司Marine Harvest，挪威銀行DNB，同埋Royal Caribbean。神婆就因為係中國羊年（實驗幾年前做），旺家庭友情，又揀咗幾間公司，包括DNB同航空股Norwegian Air Shuttle。美容博客當然唔識股票，亦都係揀三文魚同埋Royal Caribbean

5. 嗰次保羅八爪魚嘅實驗，都證明投資銀行高盛瑞銀啲model，表現不及一碟sashimi

6. 結果呢？估到了，其實除咗神婆外，全部都跑贏大市。不過表現最好係根本唔識股票嘅美容博客，券商第二，但其實同堆牛差不多。

7. 更好玩嘅係，電視台自己嘅組合就贏得最多！不過佢話你知，佢地其實揀咗幾十個組合，亂揀，但只係拎贏最多嘅出嚟畀你睇

8. 寓意都好明顯，FT文中都有提到，畢菲特著名嘅「國家擲銀仔大賽」。兩億幾美國人，估擲銀仔結果，連續20日。20日後應該會有200個人，連續估中20次，於是就成為專業銀仔員，人人畀錢佢掟了。「唔見你連續估中廿次？」

9. 然後亦有提到畢菲特嘅世紀賭局，佢已經勝出，對方揀嘅對沖基金，十年根本跑唔贏標普指數。

10. 仲有就係，電視台示範嘅survivorship bias，唔掂嘅基金一早摺咗，你見到嘅都係掂的。但過去表現不保證將來。舊文都寫過，好多時都mean reversion．表現最好嘅25%基金經理，下年仲在頭25%嘅，一半都冇。五年維持到嘅，三十個都冇一個。

11. 當然要拗可以拗啦，券商啲財演（？）不等於真正有食力嘅基金經理嘛。我識嘅基金經理都係話其他行家唔掂拖低業界但本人好掂如果舊年唔掂就今年掂今年唔掂就下年掂。況且，三個月太短嘛，都係。

12. 不過呢，市場係殘酷嘅，投資者嘅眼光係雪亮嘅，近十年八年人人轉投ETF，自有原因。

（FT原文: https://on.ft.com/37pA3BH　 How a herd of cows trampled on human stockpickers）

［新界隻牛夠勤力，而且炒股票叻過你］是真的，挪威啲牛揀股叻過專家

1. 留意投資嘅都會聽過「馬騮掟飛標」嘅故事，主要係認為市場完全有效嘅，基金經理收費太貴嘅，根本只係好彩嘅，就會講馬騮掟飛標揀股票，出嚟成績勝過唔少基金經理（特別係扣除開支後），亦都有人玩過

2. 今次去到挪威，電視台搵咗兩間券商，一個神婆（星相學家），兩個美容Blogger，同埋……幾隻牛。去揀股票。每日畀10000挪威克朗，只限買挪威股，三個月後睇下邊個最叻。

3. 原理就係呢張相，挪威奧斯陸指數剛好25隻（好彩唔係羅素2000），就將草地分25份，睇下啲牛去邊食草，就當揀股。即係好似當年德國八爪魚保羅預測世界盃咁

4. 結果，幾隻牛就主要揀咗能源股。券商呢，當然認為自己知得多，揀咗幾間公司，包括三文魚公司Marine Harvest，挪威銀行DNB，同埋Royal Caribbean。神婆就因為係中國羊年（實驗幾年前做），旺家庭友情，又揀咗幾間公司，包括DNB同航空股Norwegian Air Shuttle。美容博客當然唔識股票，亦都係揀三文魚同埋Royal Caribbean

5. 嗰次保羅八爪魚嘅實驗，都證明投資銀行高盛瑞銀啲model，表現不及一碟sashimi

6. 結果呢？估到了，其實除咗神婆外，全部都跑贏大市。不過表現最好係根本唔識股票嘅美容博客，券商第二，但其實同堆牛差不多。

7. 更好玩嘅係，電視台自己嘅組合就贏得最多！不過佢話你知，佢地其實揀咗幾十個組合，亂揀，但只係拎贏最多嘅出嚟畀你睇

8. 寓意都好明顯，FT文中都有提到，畢菲特著名嘅「國家擲銀仔大賽」。兩億幾美國人，估擲銀仔結果，連續20日。20日後應該會有200個人，連續估中20次，於是就成為專業銀仔員，人人畀錢佢掟了。「唔見你連續估中廿次？」

9. 然後亦有提到畢菲特嘅世紀賭局，佢已經勝出，對方揀嘅對沖基金，十年根本跑唔贏標普指數。

10. 仲有就係，電視台示範嘅survivorship bias，唔掂嘅基金一早摺咗，你見到嘅都係掂的。但過去表現不保證將來。舊文都寫過，好多時都mean reversion．表現最好嘅25%基金經理，下年仲在頭25%嘅，一半都冇。五年維持到嘅，三十個都冇一個。

11. 當然要拗可以拗啦，券商啲財演（？）不等於真正有食力嘅基金經理嘛。我識嘅基金經理都係話其他行家唔掂拖低業界但本人好掂如果舊年唔掂就今年掂今年唔掂就下年掂。況且，三個月太短嘛，都係。

12. 不過呢，市場係殘酷嘅，投資者嘅眼光係雪亮嘅，近十年八年人人轉投ETF，自有原因。

（FT原文: https://on.ft.com/37pA3BH　 How a herd of cows trampled on human stockpickers）

太精辟了！（转发自 I Can't Believe it）

#Economic Models Explained With #Cows

SOCIALISM; You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.

COMMUNISM; You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some milk.

FASCISM; You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk.

NAZISM:You have 2 cows. The government takes both and shoots you.

BUREAUCRATISM; You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other and then throws the milk away.

TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM; You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income.

DEMOCRACY: You have 2 cows. Your neighbor has none. You vote people into office who tax your cows, forcing you to sell one to raise money to pay for the tax. The people you voted for then take the tax money and buy a cow and give it to your neighbor. You feel righteous.

AMERICAN CAPITALISM; You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyse why the cow has dropped dead.

FRENCH CAPITALISM; You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads, because you want three cows.

A GERMAN CAPITALISM; You have 2 cows. You re-engineer them so they live for 100 years, eat once a month and milk themselves.

A JAPANESE CAPITALISM; You have 2 cows. You redesign them so they are 1/10 the size of an ordinary cow, and produce the milk of 20 cows. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called cowkimon and market them worldwide.

ITALIAN CAPITALISM; You have two cows, but you don’t know where they are. You decide to have lunch.

SWISS CAPITALISM; You have 5,000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them.

CHINESE CAPITALISM; You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation.

RUSSIAN CAPITALISM; You have 2 cows. You count them and learn that you have 5 cows. You count them again and learn that you have 42 cows. You count them again and learn that you have 2 cows. You stop counting cows and open another bottle of Vodka.

INDIAN CAPITALISM; You have two cows. You worship them.

BRITISH CAPITALISM; You have two cows. Both are mad.

IRAQI CAPITALISM; Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. Nobody believes you, so they bomb the crap out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows but at least you are now a Democracy.

AUSTRALIAN CAPITALISM; You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office and go for a few beers to celebrate.

NEW ZEALAND CAPITALISM; You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive.

GREEK CAPITALISM; You have two cows borrowed from French and German banks. You eat both of them. The banks call to collect their milk, but you cannot deliver so you call the IMF. The IMF loans you two cows. You eat both of them. The banks and the IMF call to collect their cows/milk. You are out getting a haircut.

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自创：
MALAYSIAN CAPITALISM: You have two cows. They are sent to a condominium in Singapore. You complain but no one sends the cows back to you. With your own handwork and persistence, you earn yourself another cow. You bring your cow out for an evening walk. Your only cow is robbed.