不曉得大家有在關注泰國反對軍政府的抗爭運動嗎?
上週日Taiwan Alliance for Thai Democracy - 台灣推動泰國民主聯盟 (TATD)在北車大廳舉辦一場宣講活動,現場約有一兩百人到場支持,部分媒體也做了報導。
活動訴求很清楚,就是反對泰國的獨裁軍政府。
昨天TATD拜會時代力量 New Power Party ,我們進行了一場有意義的對話,會中英文、泰文及中文夾雜。
新南向政策是政府的大方向,作為民間社會,我們可以從關注泰國的政情開始。
還記得前陣子台灣曾喊出 #奶茶聯盟 嗎?昨天在會中,TATD的朋友表示,台灣是民主陣線的重要成員,他們真心希望能有更多台灣朋友來關注他們的訴求。
On August 17, 2020 Taiwan Alliance for Thai Democracy (TATD) called at New Power Party in Taipei. Both sides had a fruitful and productive meeting.
The main purpose of the meeting was for TATD to share their thoughts on the demonstration currently widespread in Thailand as well as the gathering TATD organized at Taipei Main Station on August 16. New Power Party expressed its grave concerns about the protest and its support for Thai students in Taiwan in pursuit of human rights and democracy.
Taiwan has been considered a beacon of democracy in Asia for years. The Taiwanese society and its people have demonstrated staunch support for Hong Kongers during their fight against the ruthless Hong Kong government and the Chinese Communist regime.
What’s happening in Bangkok, Thailand is another brave fight against authoritarian rule. New Power Party urges the Taiwanese society to pay more attention to the protest in Thailand and voice necessary support for the vulnerable.
#MilkTeaAlliance
authoritarian regime中文 在 陳冠廷 Kuan-Ting Chen Facebook 的最佳解答
I have recently perused Nicholas Kristof’s NYT piece “China’s Man in Washington, Named Trump”(https://nyti.ms/3h2JXh8). One paragraph in particular caught my attention: “A joke in China suggests that Trump’s Chinese name is Chuan Jianguo, or “Build-the-Country Trump.” That’s because Build-the-Country is a common revolutionary name among Communist patriots, and it’s mockingly suggested that Trump’s misrule of the United States is actually bolstering Xi’s regime.”
Kristoff also avows that since Trump’s ascension to presidency, the American nation became highly polarized. This is reflected in the current administration’s policies on climate change, foreign relations with established U.S. allies, and COVID-19 prevention, all of which are rather ineffective. It also seems like Mr. Trump and his team diverged from the traditional priorities, including promoting free trade, human rights, and other quintessentially American values. As described thoroughly by John Bolton, all these factors contributed to the declining standing of the U.S. in global politics.
What is more, many people fall prey to CCP’s propaganda and its interpretations of Trump’s actions, which only enhances China’s reputation.
But that might not exactly be the case.
The CCP apparently failed to utilize the window of opportunity created by the ineptness of the Trump administration, as China could have grown to the position of a leader by filling in the void left by the U.S.
During the 2016 APEC Ministerial Meeting in Lima, Peru, Xi Jinping and his team actively supported the plans to establish the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific, or FTAAP. In contrast, the United States withdrew its signature from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in early 2017. Coupled with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB), this move bolstered China’s capacity to influence global investments and trade, high-tech mergers and acquisitions, and, overall, expand its geostrategic influence on the entire globe.
At the same time, various propaganda films about great power competition, military industry, and science and technology surged all at once, and gained remarkable following around the world.
All this provided a window of opportunity for the CCP to slowly change its course. Around the same time, the distrust for POTUS among U.S. allies’ reached its apex. According to polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, the distrust for the U.S. president in the U.K. reached 75%, 72% in Japan, 70% in Australia, and stunning 86% in France.
Had the C.C.P,. begun to open up at that time, or at least resumed the governance style of the Hu-Wen administration, it could have reaped the benefits of promoting liberalism where the U.S. failed to deliver. It was the time for Beijing to gradually enhance freedom of speech domestically, pursue sustainable infrastructural projects, gradually reform unfair barriers to trade, transform its S.O.E.s, strengthen protections for private ownership, and vitalize its start-ups and enterprises.
Moreover, were China to cease the genocide in East Turkestan and refrain from cracking down on Hong Kong's semi-autonomy, it would have greatly enhanced its global international image. Additionally, if paired with slow but steady reforms, Beijing’s respect for sovereignty of its peoples would have attracted a large amount of foreign investment, which in turn would have continued to buttress the country’s growth.
It is China prerogative to remain idle.
It might still be possible for Chinese “Dream” to come true.
Yet, a historic window of opportunity is now closed.
Xi assumed the tools of proscribing and stalling, which are completely antithetical to the aforementioned window of opportunity.
Today, China is more authoritarian, less flexible, and fully deprived of horizontal accountability. Its reliance on wolf warrior diplomacy backfired: for example, the Swedish parliament sought to expel the Chinese ambassador to Stockholm. Also, Prague, the capital of Czechia, terminated its sister-city agreement with Shanghai and instead signed a new one with Taipei. Last but not least, we ought not to forget about the recent fiasco in the relations with the United States who ordered the shutdown of China’s consulate in Houston. All of this took its toll on China’s reputation.
Its international standing and inability to replace the U.S. as the major global power are not the only issues China is currently facing.
As it experiences multiple domestic and international shocks, China struggles to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and tame the disastrous floods of Yangtze River. The swarm of locusts of biblical proportions is also crippling Beijing’s institutional capacity and may soon lead to food shortages. In fact, the precarity of food supply further diminishes the level of trust for Chinese authorities.
In 2019, the Pew Research Center conducted a public opinion survey to examine the international views of China. In the U.S., Argentina, the U.K., Canada, Germany, and Ukraine, only about 30% of respondents claim a favorable view of China.
As the COVID-19 pandemic rages in the U.S., as many as 73% of U.S. respondents view China unfavorably.
Recently, the C.C.P. is losing its focus by continuously shifting targets. In fact, I believe there is no need for the C.C.P.to rely on nationalistic appeals, since in this new century values, business relations, and fair competition are all far more important than greater than delusive blood ties.
China lies only 130 kilometers away from us. Of course, we welcome dialogue and seek to avoid misjudgments. But we also distinguish between the C.C.P. and China. While we do welcome dialogue, but we will not be coerced to talk under unjust preconditions or in fear.
The only fair prerequisites are those of reciprocity, mutual respect as well as fairness and openness with respect for the rule of law.
Source: Pew Research Center
最近看到紐約時報中文版的一篇文章
<美國的川普,中國的「川建國」>,其中一小段是這樣的
「在中國,人們戲稱川普的中文名字是川建國。那是因為建國是共產黨愛國者中一個普遍的革命人名。它在諷刺地暗示川普對美國的治理不當實際上是在鞏固習近平的政權。」
裡面也提到,川普在任的幾年,國家更分裂,對於氣候變遷,傳統美國盟友,乃至於疫情處理等都相當拙劣,對於美國傳統的自由貿易、人權等價值也基本上都沒有太大興趣。這些方針,導致美國在世界的評價降低,波頓的新書也多有描述。
除此之外,許多不幸相信中共宣傳,又或者是中共圈養的小粉紅,特別故意愛宣傳川普增強中國的威望。
但這不是真的。
中共完全沒有掌握美國做得不夠好的地方,去增強其在世界的領導力。
在2016年時,秘魯的亞太峰會舉行期間,習近平政權爭取(RCEP)及亞太自由貿易區(FTAAP)談判;對比2017年初,美國剛宣布退出TPP,加上中國到「一帶一路」和亞洲基礎設施投資銀行,中國當時在世界全面發揮投資貿易、高科技併購還有其地緣戰略的影響力。
也是那個時候,各種的大國崛起、大國軍工、大國科技的宣傳影片此起彼落,似乎正準備要在世界舞台發光發熱。
這曾經是中共慢慢轉向的一個機會之窗。彼時(2017)美國盟友對美國總統的不信任度達到歷史新高,根據皮尤研究中心的資訊,英國對於美國總統的不信任度達到75%、日本72% 澳洲70% 法國更高達86%
如果那時中共開始有限度的改革,對內放寬言論自由,或者至少維持在胡溫當時的水中,對外追求有責任的基礎建設,逐步緩慢減低不公平的貿易壁壘,對於國有企業改革,增強私營企業、新創企業的活力。
停止對新疆迫害,不干預香港自治,不僅國際形象會大幅改善,哪怕是緩慢但是穩健的改革,也會讓大量吸引外資,讓中國的活力持續前進。
哪怕是什麼都不做也好
那或許有這麽一點可能性,中國「夢」是可以前行的
但是歷史機緣的大門已經關上。
習、禁、停、放棄了這個機會之窗,徹底的走向相反的方向。
更專制、更沒有彈性,更沒有任何制衡的力量。各種戰狼外交,讓瑞典議員提案驅逐中國大使,捷克布拉格市長與台北簽訂姊妹是,就解散上海與該市關係、被美國關閉領事館、各種讓中國形象低下的事情,中共都沒有少做。
中共不但完全沒有辦法取代美國,在多重國內外的衝擊之下,又是瘟疫,又是超大水患,緊接著蝗害,還有進來的糧食不足問題,正在面臨巨大的瓶頸。
而糧食的命脈,卻恰恰又在對他最不信任,對中共價值最反對的國家聯盟
根據皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center2019調查各國對中國的喜好度,美國、阿根廷、英國、加拿大、德國、烏克蘭等,對於中國的喜好度都在30%上下
而2020疫情後美國對於中國的不信任度,更高達73%。
最近中共在演習,又要玩轉移目標的手段,對於中共,其實不必再有民族主義的同情,因為新的世紀,價值、商業模式、公平競爭的制度大於血緣幻想。
中國離我們只有130公里的距離,我們當然歡迎對話,避免誤判。但我們同時也區分中共與中國,歡迎對話,但不在前提、條件、恐懼之下對話。
如果真的要有前提,那就是對等、尊重,還有公平公開法治的方式會晤。
資料來源:皮尤研究中心:Pew Research Center
(美國著名的民調機構和智庫機構,https://www.pewresearch.org/)
authoritarian regime中文 在 護台胖犬 劉仕傑 Facebook 的最讚貼文
蔡英文 Tsai Ing-wen 總統2019年5月9日於《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)期刊投書之中文翻譯。
譯者:
劉仕傑 (青年外交官 劉仕傑 )
楊晴翔律師(哥倫比亞大學法學碩士)
Taiwan's Self-made democracy still needs U.S. partnership
台灣自為的民主仍需美國作夥同行
On April 10, 1979, the Taiwan Relations Act was signed into law after being passed by the U.S. Congress the month before, in response to President Jimmy Carter’s decision in January 1979 to establish official relations with the People’s Republic of China and sever diplomatic ties with the Republic of China (Taiwan). At the time, Taiwan was not yet a democracy, with a population of 17 million and a GDP per capita of $1,958―a flickering candle in the storm of the Cold War.
1979年4月10日,就在美國國會通過後一個月,台灣關係法經簽署成為(美國國內法)法律。台灣關係法係回應卡特總統在1979年1月決定與中華人民共和國建交而與中華民國斷交。當時台灣尚不是個民主國家,人口僅1,700萬,GDP僅1,958美元,可以形容為冷戰風暴中的殘燭。
The Taiwan Relations Act mandates the U.S. commitment to peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific. More important, it defines how the United States engages with Taiwan and ensures that our country has adequate defense capabilities to be free from coercion.
台灣關係法制定了美國對西太平洋地區民主、安全及穩定的承諾。更重要者,它定義了美國如何與台灣交往,並確保了本國能有適當的防禦能力,並從強脅中得到自由。
Against the backdrop of the Cold War, no one could have imagined that Taiwan would emerge as a beacon of democracy in Asia.
對抗冷戰黑幕,當時沒有人能想像台灣可以成為亞洲民主的燈塔。
By embracing democratic values, the people of Taiwan took their fate into their own hands. The resilient Taiwanese defied all odds and kept making progress.
擁抱民主價值,台灣人民自己掌握自身命運。充滿韌性的台灣人跌破大家眼鏡,持續獲得進展。
With steadfast support from our partner in democracy, the United States, the people of Taiwan transformed an authoritarian regime into a vibrant democracy and held their first direct presidential election by popular vote in 1996. Democratization was further consolidated four years later with a peaceful transfer of power from one political party to another. Then, in 2016, Taiwan broke through the glass ceiling by electing its first female president and a record number of women into the legislature.
藉由我們的民主夥伴美國所提供的穩健支持,台灣人民將一個威權政體轉型為充滿活力的民主政體,並且在1996年舉行首次總統直接民選。四年後,台灣的民主進一步鞏固,政權和平移轉。接著,2016年台灣打破看不見的性別限制,選出首位女性總統,女性國會議員數目也創新高。
Taiwan has also transformed itself from an aid recipient into a high-tech powerhouse featuring outstanding human capital, a rules-based market, and a sound legal framework that upholds property rights. Taiwan now ranks as one of the top 10 freest economies in the world and has become an important partner for many U.S. companies in the region and around the world.
台灣本身也從受援國轉型成為高科技重鎮,擁有著名的人力資源、法治市場及完善的法治架構並尊重智慧財產權。台灣目前為全球十大最自由的經濟體之一,且成為此區域及全世界許多美國公司最重要的夥伴。
Since I took office three years ago, Taiwan and the United States have stepped up our joint efforts to promote our mutual interests, such as religious freedom, media literacy, and fighting corruption, safeguarding our shared values in the Indo-Pacific region.
自從我三年前就任台灣總統職位以來,台灣與美國共同升高努力推動我們共同的利益,例如:宗教自由、媒體素養,並且對抗腐敗體制,保衛我們在印太地區之共同價值。
One lesson of the 20th century is that the forward march of democracy is not a given.
二十世紀告訴我們重要的一課是,民主的推進,不會從天而降。
For the past 40 years, many members of Congress and successive U.S. administrations have honored the Taiwan Relations Act, making our partnership irreplaceable and shielding our region from increasingly aggressive anti-democratic forces. We stand together because we believe that the darkness and fear imposed by authoritarian regimes cannot withstand the light of democracy.
過去四十年來,許多美國國會的成員以及繼任的美國行政體系都對台灣關係法給予肯定,這部法案鞏固了台美之間無可取代的的合作夥伴關係,也讓我們在逐漸深化的反民主的侵略力量面前,得以捍衛區域安全。台美堅定站在一起是因為我們相信極權政權帶來的黑暗與恐懼將無法遮蔽民主照耀出的光亮。
The U.S. government has stood firm and responded to challenges to our partnership with determination and perseverance.
美國政府一直立場堅定並且以決心與毅力回應任何可能傷害台美關係之挑戰。
The U.S. Congress has consistently demonstrated bipartisan support for stronger ties with Taiwan through legislation like the Taiwan Travel Act, proof that the creativity and commitment that created the Taiwan Relations Act are still alive in Congress today.
美國國會持續不分黨派,以推動台灣旅行法等立法作為,展現他們對於加強台美之間緊密合作關係的支持。這是制定台灣關係法當年之創造力與承諾,仍然在美國國會活躍的證明。
Our shared commitment to democracy and freedom is something that people living under authoritarian regimes can never understand. Faced with the growing challenges to the rules-based order established after World War II, our partnership is more important than ever.
我們共同對民主與自由的承諾是生活在極權政權底下的人民所無法理解的。在二次世界大戰以來民主秩序所面臨的挑戰更加艱困之際,台美之間的夥伴關係無比重要。
Taiwan has survived and thrived under the most challenging circumstances of the 20th century. The people of Taiwan have not given in to the fearmongering of authoritarian regimes and never will. At this critical juncture, we celebrate and reaffirm our partnership with the United States and look forward to the next chapter in our success story.
二十世紀以來,台灣從最艱困的環境下生存下來並且蓬勃發展至今。台灣人民從不也永不向極權的政權屈服。值此重要的關頭,我們與美國共同慶賀並且更加確定彼此的關係,並且展望在未來的歷史中,成功寫出一頁新的篇章。
As president of this beacon of democracy, I am committed to fighting the good fight. I will continue to work with our friends in the years ahead to create a better world for future generations and a more open and free Indo-Pacific and beyond.
身為民主燈塔的一國總統,我非常堅定的信守我的承諾,克盡當為之事。我會持續與我們的友人在未來共同努力,為往後的世世代代,打造一個更加美好的未來,以及更加開放自由的印太地區。
Tsai Ing-wen is the President of Taiwan.
台灣總統,蔡英文
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