【#拜登就職演說全文】★中英版本★
資料來源:美國白宮新聞稿
This is America’s day. This is democracy’s day.
A day of history and hope. Of renewal and resolve.
Through a crucible for the ages America has been tested anew and America has risen to the challenge.
Today, we celebrate the triumph not of a candidate, but of a cause, the cause of democracy.
The will of the people has been heard and the will of the people has been heeded.
We have learned again that democracy is precious.
Democracy is fragile.
And at this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed.
So now, on this hallowed ground where just days ago violence sought to shake this Capitol’s very foundation, we come together as one nation, under God, indivisible, to carry out the peaceful transfer of power as we have for more than two centuries.
We look ahead in our uniquely American way – restless, bold, optimistic – and set our sights on the nation we know we can be and we must be.
I thank my predecessors of both parties for their presence here.
I thank them from the bottom of my heart.
You know the resilience of our Constitution and the strength of our nation.
As does President Carter, who I spoke to last night but who cannot be with us today, but whom we salute for his lifetime of service.
I have just taken the sacred oath each of these patriots took — an oath first sworn by George Washington.
But the American story depends not on any one of us, not on some of us, but on all of us.
On “We the People” who seek a more perfect Union.
This is a great nation and we are a good people.
Over the centuries through storm and strife, in peace and in war, we have come so far. But we still have far to go.
We will press forward with speed and urgency, for we have much to do in this winter of peril and possibility.
Much to repair.
Much to restore.
Much to heal.
Much to build.
And much to gain.
Few periods in our nation’s history have been more challenging or difficult than the one we’re in now.
A once-in-a-century virus silently stalks the country.
It’s taken as many lives in one year as America lost in all of World War II.
Millions of jobs have been lost.
Hundreds of thousands of businesses closed.
A cry for racial justice some 400 years in the making moves us. The dream of justice for all will be deferred no longer.
A cry for survival comes from the planet itself. A cry that can’t be any more desperate or any more clear.
And now, a rise in political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism that we must confront and we will defeat.
To overcome these challenges – to restore the soul and to secure the future of America – requires more than words.
It requires that most elusive of things in a democracy:
Unity.
Unity.
In another January in Washington, on New Year’s Day 1863, Abraham Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation.
When he put pen to paper, the President said, “If my name ever goes down into history it will be for this act and my whole soul is in it.”
My whole soul is in it.
Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this:
Bringing America together.
Uniting our people.
And uniting our nation.
I ask every American to join me in this cause.
Uniting to fight the common foes we face:
Anger, resentment, hatred.
Extremism, lawlessness, violence.
Disease, joblessness, hopelessness.
With unity we can do great things. Important things.
We can right wrongs.
We can put people to work in good jobs.
We can teach our children in safe schools.
We can overcome this deadly virus.
We can reward work, rebuild the middle class, and make health care
secure for all.
We can deliver racial justice.
We can make America, once again, the leading force for good in the world.
I know speaking of unity can sound to some like a foolish fantasy.
I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real.
But I also know they are not new.
Our history has been a constant struggle between the American ideal that we are all created equal and the harsh, ugly reality that racism, nativism, fear, and demonization have long torn us apart.
The battle is perennial.
Victory is never assured.
Through the Civil War, the Great Depression, World War, 9/11, through struggle, sacrifice, and setbacks, our “better angels” have always prevailed.
In each of these moments, enough of us came together to carry all of us forward.
And, we can do so now.
History, faith, and reason show the way, the way of unity.
We can see each other not as adversaries but as neighbors.
We can treat each other with dignity and respect.
We can join forces, stop the shouting, and lower the temperature.
For without unity, there is no peace, only bitterness and fury.
No progress, only exhausting outrage.
No nation, only a state of chaos.
This is our historic moment of crisis and challenge, and unity is the path forward.
And, we must meet this moment as the United States of America.
If we do that, I guarantee you, we will not fail.
We have never, ever, ever failed in America when we have acted together.
And so today, at this time and in this place, let us start afresh.
All of us.
Let us listen to one another.
Hear one another.
See one another.
Show respect to one another.
Politics need not be a raging fire destroying everything in its path.
Every disagreement doesn’t have to be a cause for total war.
And, we must reject a culture in which facts themselves are manipulated and even manufactured.
My fellow Americans, we have to be different than this.
America has to be better than this.
And, I believe America is better than this.
Just look around.
Here we stand, in the shadow of a Capitol dome that was completed amid the Civil War, when the Union itself hung in the balance.
Yet we endured and we prevailed.
Here we stand looking out to the great Mall where Dr. King spoke of his dream.
Here we stand, where 108 years ago at another inaugural, thousands of protestors tried to block brave women from marching for the right to vote.
Today, we mark the swearing-in of the first woman in American history elected to national office – Vice President Kamala Harris.
Don’t tell me things can’t change.
Here we stand across the Potomac from Arlington National Cemetery, where heroes who gave the last full measure of devotion rest in eternal peace.
And here we stand, just days after a riotous mob thought they could use violence to silence the will of the people, to stop the work of our democracy, and to drive us from this sacred ground.
That did not happen.
It will never happen.
Not today.
Not tomorrow.
Not ever.
To all those who supported our campaign I am humbled by the faith you have placed in us.
To all those who did not support us, let me say this: Hear me out as we move forward. Take a measure of me and my heart.
And if you still disagree, so be it.
That’s democracy. That’s America. The right to dissent peaceably, within the guardrails of our Republic, is perhaps our nation’s greatest strength.
Yet hear me clearly: Disagreement must not lead to disunion.
And I pledge this to you: I will be a President for all Americans.
I will fight as hard for those who did not support me as for those who did.
Many centuries ago, Saint Augustine, a saint of my church, wrote that a people was a multitude defined by the common objects of their love.
What are the common objects we love that define us as Americans?
I think I know.
Opportunity.
Security.
Liberty.
Dignity.
Respect.
Honor.
And, yes, the truth.
Recent weeks and months have taught us a painful lesson.
There is truth and there are lies.
Lies told for power and for profit.
And each of us has a duty and responsibility, as citizens, as Americans, and especially as leaders – leaders who have pledged to honor our Constitution and protect our nation — to defend the truth and to defeat the lies.
I understand that many Americans view the future with some fear and trepidation.
I understand they worry about their jobs, about taking care of their families, about what comes next.
I get it.
But the answer is not to turn inward, to retreat into competing factions, distrusting those who don’t look like you do, or worship the way you do, or don’t get their news from the same sources you do.
We must end this uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal.
We can do this if we open our souls instead of hardening our hearts.
If we show a little tolerance and humility.
If we’re willing to stand in the other person’s shoes just for a moment.
Because here is the thing about life: There is no accounting for what fate will deal you.
There are some days when we need a hand.
There are other days when we’re called on to lend one.
That is how we must be with one another.
And, if we are this way, our country will be stronger, more prosperous, more ready for the future.
My fellow Americans, in the work ahead of us, we will need each other.
We will need all our strength to persevere through this dark winter.
We are entering what may well be the toughest and deadliest period of the virus.
We must set aside the politics and finally face this pandemic as one nation.
I promise you this: as the Bible says weeping may endure for a night but joy cometh in the morning.
We will get through this, together
The world is watching today.
So here is my message to those beyond our borders: America has been tested and we have come out stronger for it.
We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again.
Not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s.
We will lead not merely by the example of our power but by the power of our example.
We will be a strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security.
We have been through so much in this nation.
And, in my first act as President, I would like to ask you to join me in a moment of silent prayer to remember all those we lost this past year to the pandemic.
To those 400,000 fellow Americans – mothers and fathers, husbands and wives, sons and daughters, friends, neighbors, and co-workers.
We will honor them by becoming the people and nation we know we can and should be.
Let us say a silent prayer for those who lost their lives, for those they left behind, and for our country.
Amen.
This is a time of testing.
We face an attack on democracy and on truth.
A raging virus.
Growing inequity.
The sting of systemic racism.
A climate in crisis.
America’s role in the world.
Any one of these would be enough to challenge us in profound ways.
But the fact is we face them all at once, presenting this nation with the gravest of responsibilities.
Now we must step up.
All of us.
It is a time for boldness, for there is so much to do.
And, this is certain.
We will be judged, you and I, for how we resolve the cascading crises of our era.
Will we rise to the occasion?
Will we master this rare and difficult hour?
Will we meet our obligations and pass along a new and better world for our children?
I believe we must and I believe we will.
And when we do, we will write the next chapter in the American story.
It’s a story that might sound something like a song that means a lot to me.
It’s called “American Anthem” and there is one verse stands out for me:
“The work and prayers
of centuries have brought us to this day
What shall be our legacy?
What will our children say?…
Let me know in my heart
When my days are through
America
America
I gave my best to you.”
Let us add our own work and prayers to the unfolding story of our nation.
If we do this then when our days are through our children and our children’s children will say of us they gave their best.
They did their duty.
They healed a broken land.
My fellow Americans, I close today where I began, with a sacred oath.
Before God and all of you I give you my word.
I will always level with you.
I will defend the Constitution.
I will defend our democracy.
I will defend America.
I will give my all in your service thinking not of power, but of possibilities.
Not of personal interest, but of the public good.
And together, we shall write an American story of hope, not fear.
Of unity, not division.
Of light, not darkness.
An American story of decency and dignity.
Of love and of healing.
Of greatness and of goodness.
May this be the story that guides us.
The story that inspires us.
The story that tells ages yet to come that we answered the call of history.
We met the moment.
That democracy and hope, truth and justice, did not die on our watch but thrived.
That our America secured liberty at home and stood once again as a beacon to the world.
That is what we owe our forebearers, one another, and generations to follow.
So, with purpose and resolve we turn to the tasks of our time.
Sustained by faith.
Driven by conviction.
And, devoted to one another and to this country we love with all our hearts.
May God bless America and may God protect our troops.
Thank you, America.
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★ 中文翻譯:資料來源中央社CNA
這是美國的一天,這是民主的一天,是歷史和希望的一天,是更新與決心的一天。美國幾個世代經過熔爐的考驗之後,如今再次遭到試煉,而且已再次奮起應付挑戰。今天,我們慶祝的不是一位候選人的勝利,而是一個奮鬥目標的勝利,是為民主的奮鬥。人民的意志被聽見了,人民的意志得到了關注。
我們再次學到,民主是珍貴的,民主是脆弱的,而在此刻,朋友們,民主已然勝利。短短幾天之前,還有暴力試圖撼動國會的根基,但今天我們齊聚這個莊嚴的所在,以一個在上帝之下不可分裂的國家,展開權力的和平轉移,一如我國200多年的傳統。
我們要用美國特有的方式,也就是不停歇、勇敢、樂觀的方式展望未來。放眼我們可以成為、也必須成為的國家。我謝謝今天蒞臨的兩黨前任總統,我衷心感謝,你們知道我國憲法的韌性,以及我們國家的力量。卡特總統(Jimmy Carter)也是,我昨晚與他通了電話,但他不克前來。我們為他畢生的奉獻向他致敬。
我剛才跟這幾位愛國者一樣鄭重宣誓,一篇最初由華盛頓宣讀的誓詞。然而,美國故事靠的不是我們任何一個人,或一部分人,而是我們全體。它靠的是「我們人民」,在尋求一個更好的合眾國的人民。這是個偉大的國家,我們是一群良善的人。
經歷過去幾個世紀的風雨和衝突、和平與戰爭,我們走過很長一段路,但前方還有很長一段路要走。我們將快速緊急前行,因為在這個危險與機會的冬天,我們有很多事要做。有很多需要修補、需要恢復、需要癒合。有許多需要建設,也可以有很多收穫。
在我國歷史上,很少人或很少時刻面臨著比我們目前更大的挑戰或困難。百年一見、無聲無息蔓延整個國家的病毒,在一年之內奪走的人命,跟美國在第二次世界大戰犧牲的總人數一樣多。數百萬工作機會流失,成千上萬企業關門。
400年來的種族正義的呼聲感動著我們,全民同享公義的夢想將不再拖後。地球生存的呼聲再急迫不過,也再清楚不過。如今政治極端主義、白人至上主義和本土恐怖主義的興起,讓我們有必要起來面對並將它們擊倒。
克服這些挑戰、恢復美國靈魂和鞏固未來需要的不只是話語,而是民主當中最難以捉摸的部分,那就是團結一心,團結一心。
另一個一月天,在1863年開年之時,林肯總統簽署解放奴隸宣言。讓我引述他在下筆時所說的話:「如果我留名青史,將會是因為這份宣言,以及我投注其中的全心全意。」
今天,同樣在一月裡,我全心全意投注於此:團結全體國人,團結整個國家。我請求所有美國人加入,和我一起努力,團結對抗我們共同的敵人:怨氣、不滿、仇恨、極端主義、目無法紀的行為、暴力、疾病、失業和無助。
團結一心,我們能夠成就偉大事業、重要的事情。我們可以糾正錯誤,可以讓民眾找到好的工作,可以在安全的校園教導孩子,可以克服這個致命的病毒。我們可以讓工作獲得報酬,重建中產階級,可以提供全民健保,可以兌現種族正義,讓美國再次成為世界主要的良善力量。
我明白,這個時候談論團結聽起來像愚昧的天方夜譚,我知道分裂我們的力量又深又真切,但我也知道這些力量不是現在才出現。美國向來在人人平等這個理想,和國家長期被種族主義、本土主義、恐懼和妖魔化分化的醜陋現實之間掙扎。這個征戰從未止息,勝利並無保證。
從南北戰爭、大蕭條、世界大戰到911恐攻,儘管歷經奮鬥、犧牲和挫折,良善的天使向來都會勝利。每當遇到這種時刻,我們都會有足夠的人團結一心,讓全國一起向前,我們現在也可以這麼做。
歷史、信仰和理性指向一條明路,一條團結之路。我們可以不把彼此當成敵人,而是鄰居。我們可以尊嚴和尊重彼此相待,可以同心協力,停止叫囂,讓溫度冷卻。因為沒有團結就沒有和平,只會留下苦毒與憤怒;不會有進步,只會有讓人厭倦的離譜言行;不會有國家,只會有混亂狀態。
這是我們危機和挑戰的歷史性一刻,而團結是前進的道路,我們必須以合眾國的姿態來面對這一刻,若能做到,我向諸位保證我們不會失敗。當我們團結起來,我們從來就不曾失敗,因此在這一天,在此時此刻,就在這裡,讓我們重新來過,全體一起來。讓我們開始再次彼此聆聽,讓對方說,相互探望,對彼表達尊重。
政治不必像這一團熊熊之火,燒毀一切,歧見不必成為全面戰爭的理由。我們必須摒棄操弄甚至捏造事實的文化,同胞們,我們不能這樣,美國必須不只是這個樣子,而且我相信美國不至淪落至此。
看看四周,我們站在國會大廈圓頂之下,這是南北戰爭時期完成的,當時美國的前途還在未定之天,但我們挺過來了,我們勝利了。我們現在站在此,看著偉大的國家廣場,金恩博士(Martin Luther King Jr.)曾對廣場上的群眾訴說他的夢想。也是在這裡,108年前的另一場就職典禮,數以千計的抗議人士試圖阻撓一群勇敢的婦女遊行爭取投票權。
今天我們見證副總統賀錦麗創造美國歷史,成為第一位擔任國家領導人的女性,別告訴我事情無法改變。
我們站在這裡,隔著波多馬克河(Potomac River)遠眺阿靈頓國家公墓(Arlington National Cemetery),也就是為國捐軀的英雄長眠之地。我們站在這裡,不過幾天前,暴動的群眾以為他們可用暴力箝制民眾的意志,阻撓民主運作,把我們驅逐出這塊聖地。但事情未如他們所願,今天不會,明天也不會,永遠都不會。
每位支持我們參選的民眾,我因你們給予我們的信心感到謙卑。對於沒有支持我們的人,讓我對你們說:未來請聽我說的話,評量我和我的心。如果你們還是不同意,也罷。這就是民主。這就是美國。以平和的方式在我們國家的規範之內表達異議的權利,可能是我國最大的優勢。
但請聽清楚:不同意見絕對不能變成不團結。而且我向各位保證,我要當全體國人的總統。不論你支持我或不支持我,我都將同樣為你們而努力。
好幾個世紀之前,我所屬教會的聖者聖奧古斯丁(Saint Augustine)曾經寫道,人民是個群體,由他們共同喜愛的東西所定義。身為美國人,我們共同喜愛而且能定義我們的東西是什麼?我想我們都知道:機會、安定、自由、尊嚴、尊重、榮譽,是的,還有真相。
最近的幾個星期、幾個月給了我們痛苦的教訓:有真相,也有謊言,為了權力和利益而說的謊言。我們每個人做為公民,做為美國人,特別是身為領導者的人,曾經承諾要遵守憲法、保護我們的國家的領導者,有職責、有責任要捍衛真相、打敗謊言。
我瞭解有許多同胞以害怕、惶恐的心情看待未來。我瞭解他們擔心工作問題。我瞭解他們像我父親那樣,夜裡躺在床上盯著天花板,想著得要有醫療保險、有貸款要付、想著他們的家庭,想著接下來會如何。我跟各位保證,我瞭解。但答案不是退縮,不是進入到彼此競爭的派系,不信任看起來跟你不一樣的人,跟你有不同信仰的人,或者新聞來源不同於你的人。
我們必須結束這場「無禮的戰爭」,它讓紅藍對立、鄉村與都市的民眾對立、保守派與自由派對立。我們可以做到,如果我們敞開心胸,而不是讓我們的心變硬,如果我們展現一些包容和謙虛,如果我們願意為別人設想,就像我母親說的:只要一下子就好,為別人設想。
因為人生就是這樣,你無法預知命運。有些時候,你會需要別人伸出援手,還有些時候,人家會請你伸出援手。就是要這樣,這就是我們為彼此做的事。如果我們這麼做,我們的國家就會更強大、更繁榮,更能為未來做好準備,而且我們還是可以有不同意見。
同胞們,我們在推動未來的工作時,會需要彼此。我們要集舉國之力,才能度過這個黑暗的冬天。我們可能在進入疫情最嚴重、最致命的階段。我們必須把政治擺在一邊,要終於能夠舉國對抗這個大流行,用舉國之力。我向各位保證,就如聖經所說:「一宿雖有哭泣,早晨便必歡呼。」我們將可一起度過,一起!
各位,我跟我在參眾兩院的同事們都瞭解,世人正在觀看,他們今天在看著我們,因此這是我要對國外傳達的訊息:美國受到試煉,而我們因此更為茁壯。我們將修補我們與盟國的關係,再次與世界往來,不是為了面對昨天的挑戰,而是今天和明天的挑戰。我們將不是藉著我們力量的典範來領導,而是憑藉我們典範的力量。我們將會是和平、進步與安定堅強而且可信賴的夥伴。
各位都知道,我們國家經歷了許多事情。我做為總統要做的第一件事,是要請你們跟我一起,為過去一年因疫情喪生的人們默禱,紀念那40萬個同胞,母親、父親、丈夫、妻子、兒子、女兒、朋友、鄰居和同事們。我們要成為我們自知可以成為、而且應該成為的人民和國家,以此榮耀他們。因此我請大家,一起為離世和失去親友的人們,還有我們的國家默禱,……阿們。
各位,這是試煉的時刻。我們面對對民主與真相的攻擊、正在肆虐的病毒、嚴重的不公、系統性的種族歧視、陷入危機的氣候,還有美國在全球的角色問題。其中任何一點都足以對我們構成嚴重的挑戰。但事實是,我們在同時面對這一切,這讓美國挑起我們最重大的責任之一。我們將受到試煉,我們能迎接挑戰嗎?這是大膽的時候,因為有好多事情要做。
而我向各位保證,這點是肯定的:你我將被評判,標準是我們如何解決這個時代一一發生的危機。我們將迎接挑戰。我們能否戰勝這個罕見而艱難的時刻?我們能否履行我們的義務,把一個新的、更好的世界傳給我們的下一代?我相信我們必須那麼做,而且我相信你們也這麼認為。我相信我們會,而且當我們做到,我們將寫下美國歷史偉大的新章節。美國的故事。
這個故事可能像一首對我來說深具意義的歌曲,它叫「美國頌」(American Anthem),它有一段歌詞至少對我來說很特別,它是這樣說的:「數百年的努力與祈禱讓我們來到今天,我們有什麼能傳承下去?我們的子孫會怎麼說?當我的日子結束,讓我內心知曉,美國,美國,我已為你付出最大努力。」
讓我們把我們自己的努力和祈禱,加到我們偉大的國家仍在發展的故事之中。如果我們做到,那麼當我們的日子結束,我們的子孫和他們的子孫會說:「他們付出了最大的努力,他們盡了他們的責任,他們修補了破碎的國家。」
同胞們,我的結語要跟開頭一樣,有個神聖的誓言。在上帝和各位面前,我向你們保證。我將始終開誠布公,我將捍衛憲法,我將捍衛我們的民主。我將捍衛美國,全心全力奉獻為你們服務,心中想的不是權力,而是可能性,不是私利,而是公眾的利益。我們將一起寫下美國希望的故事,而非恐懼的故事,是團結而非分歧,是光明而非黑暗。是禮貌與尊嚴、愛與療癒、偉大與善良的故事。
希望這是引導我們的故事、啟發我們的故事,是能告訴未來的世世代代我們回應歷史的召喚並且回應了時代挑戰的故事。民主與希望、真相與公義沒有在我們的時代衰亡,而是生生不息,美國固守了國內的自由,並且再次成為世界的明燈。這是我們對先人、對彼此和對未來世世代代的責任。
因此,我們要有目標、有決心,把注意力轉向這個時代的任務,靠信心來維持,靠信念來驅使,為彼此和我們全心熱愛的國家而奉獻。願上帝保佑美國,保守我們的三軍。謝謝美國!
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譚新強:慶祝聯合國成立75周年 十個改革建議
近月我多次提到今季美中名義GDP將很接近,是一個非常、非常、非常(重要事情講三次)重要的歷史里程碑。美國國會CBO預測第二季度GDP將下跌至前所未見的38%,如成真,或是中國有史以來第一次(最少是鴉片戰爭以來)超越美國。當然,美國經濟逐漸重開,不管多參差,甚至不管死多少人,美國GDP必將有所反彈,但A.C.後的美中差距,必比B.C.前收窄很多。
過去三年,特朗普經常自誇美國經濟規模遠比中國大(缺乏安全感?),且許下諾言,在他任內,誓不會讓中國超越。所有貿易戰、科技戰、意識形態鬥爭,以至其他種種紛爭,都是由此而起,其他所有的滿口仁義道德,對不起,都只是藉口! 但如這情况在今季馬上出現,實在有點好奇,他將如何向人民交代?但有如皇帝的新衣,或許無人願意戳破。
有些人誤會我因中國加速追上美國而高興。非也,非也,事實上我非常憂心。不幸中美已墜進修昔底德陷阱,中國固然不會放棄繼續發展的應有權利,人口是美國的4倍多,每年中國的STEM畢業生約470萬,近美國的8倍。當然平均中國人也不蠢,更非常勤力,所以中國絕不需要擁有征服世界的野心,只要有正常的上進心,已根本無辦法避免在賽道上跟美國碰撞,除非出現嚴重意外,否則超越美國只是時間問題,今次Covid疫情,成為意外的催化劑。但從相反的美國角度來看,當然不可能,亦不會把二戰後從充當世界警察、無數次正義與不正義戰爭,再加上發展出多項最尖端科學和科技,和培養出多家最優秀企業,辛苦經營得來的全球霸主寶座,拱手相讓給中國。
美國二戰後被「黃袍加身」
從歷史上我們輕易能找出不少類似競爭情况,最值得參考的是19世紀末至二戰結束,國際權力變化和轉移。早在約1890年,美國的經濟規模已開始超越英國,甚至整個大英帝國。但當時美國是一個擁有兩個海洋為天然屏障、非常內向、工業剛剛起步、但仍以農業為主的國家。大部分美國人都是為逃避歐洲戰亂、宗教紛爭和饑荒的移民。
到了20世紀初,歐洲戰雲密佈,德國崛起,開始挑戰英國。1914年,神推鬼擁,奧匈帝國王儲Archduke Ferdinand被一個Bosnian Serb暗殺,牽動多國的共同防衛協議,結果整個歐洲被拉進第一次世界大戰。美國總統Wilson是peaceful globalist(和平全球主義者)的始祖,本來極不願參戰,拖了兩年多,才因德國有意支持墨西哥奪回部分美國領土,勉強在1917年4月宣布參與The war to end all wars(歷史性謊話)。
一戰打到1918年中,德方敗象已露,開始求和。Wilson非常雀躍,美國總統首次出國,到巴黎牽頭籌備巴黎和談,並建議成立League of Nations(國際聯盟)。
半年巴黎和談達成5條和約,包括可說是最失敗的凡爾賽條約。戰後的英、法等國欠下美國大量債務,瀕臨破產,所以對德國非常苛刻,企圖榨取巨額賠償。後來德國無力償還,帶來的經濟困境,反成為二戰的導火線。國際聯盟雖是Wilson的主意,但戰後美國再轉內向,結果議案未被參議院通過,國際聯盟變成無牙老虎,對防範第二次大戰完全無效。結果不到20年,幾乎原班人馬又回到殺戮戰場(最重要改變是日本改站德國那邊)。悲哀!
二戰後,世界一片頹垣敗瓦,美國是唯一例外,更擁有核武,即使不想承擔世界一哥責任,但已到了「黃袍加身」地步。美國再次支持聯合國的成立,終堅決加入,首次會議在1945年4月三藩市舉行,完成聯合國憲章起草。洛克菲臘更捐出紐約市地皮,建立聯合國總部。戰後以美國為首的世界秩序自此成形。
重要議題 全人類公投決定
今年是聯合國成立75周年,值得慶祝,但更值得檢討。過去數年,西方的所謂民粹主義急漲,反對全球化,實則是極醜陋的種族主義捲土重來,威脅世界和平。
哈佛生物學家E.O. Wilson的名句發人深省:「人類擁有早石器時代的感情,中世紀的社會體制和機構,和神級科技」,一個足以毁滅人類自己的危險組合。所以聯合國也必須探討改革,與時並進,才可發揮更大維持和平和推進人類發展的作用。我是一個die-hard peaceful globalist(死硬世界和平主義者),在此拋磚引玉,提出十個改革建議,部分較實際,部分較幻想化,但全部認真。
(1)雖然聯合國不是一個世界政府,但可領先探討以先進科技來實行direct democracy(直接民主),避免如美國選舉人制度的扭曲。聯合國秘書長一職實權不大,何不嘗試由全球人類,通過智能手機,直接提名和選舉出來?甚至某些如氣候變化和如何對抗新型病毒等重要議題,以全球公投形式來作決定。更先進一點,可探討模仿Amazon、淘寶和Google,利用AI技術來收集實時全球生活習慣、趨勢和意見,可能比投票更準確反映民意。
(2)安全理事會的重組已討論了多年。中、英、美、法、俄的永久席位和否決權,仍反映二戰後的國際局勢,跟75年後的今天已脫節。最多人建議的是增加4個永久席位,引進德國和日本,兩個二戰戰敗國,現已變為愛好和平的發達國家,再加上印度和巴西,代表發展中國家的重要地位。
這改革仍不夠,應考慮讓聯合國維持小型永久性和平部隊,比每次出現滅族大屠殺,侵略戰爭,才臨時拉夫好,反應快並更有效。更大膽一點,可否考慮把部分國家層面的核武控制權,託管給聯合國。以前我提過有學者建議No First Use(NFU)加上Guaranteed Second Use(GSU)的核武使用原則,非常有創意,但誰來擔當這個大公無私的世界警察任務,是個大難題。假如以色列先對伊朗使用核武,世界會否相信美國真的會以核武對以色列還擊?如果中立機器式決定權在聯合國,阻嚇力會否更大?
設永久性和平部隊
(3)IMF和World Bank雖不隸屬聯合國,但也是二戰後的同期產物。在Bretton Woods會議,Keynes的原意是賦予IMF更多資源,用來拯救面對經濟危機會員國,未必需要償還。但最後代表強大美國的Harry Dexter White大獲全勝,結果IMF變成一個如普通銀行般的借錢機構,條件頗苛刻,且訂明借款國家需準時歸還。我建議回歸初衷,放寬條件,成為一家真正的世界央行。
IMF在1969年推出SDR(Special Drawing Rights),雖只是一個理論貨幣,美元仍是最重要儲備貨幣,但為未來的多極化世界設想,實在有更大力進動SDR發展的需要,定期檢討SDR的組合和權重,更貼近國際經濟情况的變遷。再大膽一點,即使不印SDR現鈔,何不順應潮流,嘗試發行數碼SDR貨幣,與Bitcoin和其他虛擬貨幣,爭一日之長短?
(4)如要擴大IMF資源,聯合國建立長期和平部隊,必須增加可靠收入(會員經常賴帳)。我建議兩個可行辦法。第一是賦予聯合國一點全球徵稅權,譬如全球工作者收入的0.2%。全球GDP有80多萬億美元,即可收稅約1600億美元,大概等同一個中型國家的稅收。另外,從2009年起,IMF已開始發債,現在每年只約300億美元,有擴大需要。我建議亦可讓聯合國直接發行真正的global bond(全球債券),必受歡迎。我知道不容易,歐洲即使在疫情下,都仍未能發出Covid bond(私心太重),但值得考慮。
(5)雖然近日美國不停攻擊世衛,但其實今次疫情,令到大家更感受到新疫症愈來愈頻密的威脅。如世衛有不足之處,正是因為資源嚴重不足,和各國政策缺乏協調。我建議世衛必須升級成為一個世界CDC,建立自己的科研團隊和實驗室,並儲存各種疫苗、藥物和保護設備,隨時供應給有需要地區。除此,世衛亦應加緊對新病毒與氣候和環境變化關係的科學研究(由蚊子傳播的瘧疾,與全球暖化關係已毋庸置疑)。如能找出強力證據,對推動可持續發展政策有很大幫助。
(6)我建議成立一個新的聯合國組織,正式以可持續發展為目標,直接對抗氣候和環境變化,此舉刻不容緩。Covid疫情是給人類的wake-up call,警告不可再過度自私,毁壞地球環境。雖然世界經濟停擺對短期減少碳排放有幫助,但隨着社會重開已在反彈。如要防止地球溫度上升小於攝氏1.5度的臨界點,未來10年,每年平均排放必須減少7%。
(7) 世界政府可以是烏托邦,亦可以是噩夢。毋須急於實現,需要很多先決條件,但值得由聯合國去研究。過去二三百年的政治和經濟理論,資本與社會主義、議會政制,或共產體制,都因多方面科技進步或已變得過時。能源瓶頸已逐漸打開,加上生產力大幅提升,人類基本需求如食物、衣服、運輸,甚至住屋、教育和醫療都有足夠供應。因自動化和AI發展,反而所需人類工人數目和時間減少。其實資本和社會主義的區別已逐漸模糊,今次疫情中,連美國都急派大量金錢,實在已執行MMT和UBI等極端社會主義政策。再根本一點,有了超級電腦,fiat currency(法定代幣)的存在價值都值得研究,更直接的高科技bartering(易貨貿易)是否可行?
本土化實乃醜陋種族主義
(8)近年全球盛行排外的所謂本土化,雖有其背景原因,但其實亦包含醜陋的種族主義。我亦不相信過去人類1萬年的全球化大趨勢,會長久逆轉,最多只是一次短暫休息。長遠來說,人類仍將跟隨人口密度、經濟機會、政治、氣候和環境變化等因素而繼續遷徙。但如要防止更多種族衝突,聯合國應帶頭推動文化交流,語言教育尤其重要。我並非建議重倡Esperanto世界語,但支持全球普及教育英文和中文,和以及更重要的computer literacy(電腦認字)。有點妙想天開,聯合國更可嘗試開發鼓勵異國通婚的App,對長遠世界大同的願景或有很大幫助!
(9)從前我已討論過一些尋找外星人的計劃,最有名的是美國從1970年代已開始的SETI(Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence),但至今仍未有發現,Fermi paradox(費米悖論)仍是個謎。但理論上,外星人存在的概率非常高,可能只是人類仍未投放足夠資源去尋找,假以時日,絕對有機會成功。此任務最適合交給聯合國,既有重要科學意義,又可推動各種太空科技發展。最重要的是,如發現外星人,不論是友是敵,人類都必變得更團結。假如找不到,發現人類非常孤寂,更值得珍惜地球!
(10)如果人類科技真的遠遠走在社會體制前面,有何方法彌補?從前我指出過法律並不正式承認科學的存在,譬如在交通或槍擊案中,科學家只可以專家證人身分作證,法庭無必要一定採納意見。固然科學證據都可有爭議性,但只憑人類經驗和偏見建立出來的法律系統,反而凌駕於永恒的科學定律上,實屬本末倒置。
所以我建議在聯合國憲章中作出修訂,明確把最簡單、最實用和最具代表性的牛頓三大運動定律放進去,將是人類法律史上里程碑!當然象徵意義大於實際,等同美鈔上印有「In God We Trust」。
中環資產持有Amazon及Alibaba的財務權益
中環資產投資行政總裁
[譚新強 中環新譚]
call of war中文 在 Eric's English Lounge Facebook 的最佳解答
[時事英文] 蔡英文總統BBC專訪關鍵英文詞彙
今天要來與大家分享蔡英文總統的BBC專訪! It's an insightful one!
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專訪(中文): https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51115705
專訪(英文): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246
報導內有影片!
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Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has told the BBC that China needs to "face reality" and show the island "respect".
1. face reality 面對現實
2. show respect 表示尊重
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She was re-elected for a second term on Saturday, winning by a landslide after a campaign in which she focused heavily on the rising threat from Beijing.
3. win by a landslide 以壓倒性優勢獲勝
4. focus heavily on... 特別專注於...
5. rising threat 上升的威脅
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The Chinese Communist Party has long claimed sovereignty over Taiwan and the right to take it by force if necessary. Ms Tsai* insisted that the sovereignty of the self-governing island was not in doubt or up for negotiation.
-\-\BBC
6. the Chinese Communist Party 中國共產黨
7. claim sovereignty 主張主權
8. take it by force 以武力攻下台灣
9. the sovereignty of ...的主權
10. self governing 自治的
11. not in doubt 毫無疑問
12. not up for negotiation 不能談判
*President Tsai
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"We don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state," the 63-year-old president told the BBC in an exclusive interview, her first since the election. "We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan."
13. declare 宣布
14. an independent state 一個獨立的國家;政府
15. exclusive interview 專訪
16. an independent country 一個獨立國家
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Such statements infuriate Beijing, which wants a return to the "One China" principle favoured by the main rival she saw off in the race for president, Han Kuo-yu from the Kuomintang party. His party traces its roots to the defeated nationalists in the Chinese civil war, who fled to Taiwan and continued to see the island as part of a greater China from which they had been usurped.
17. infuriate 激怒
18. return to 還給, 歸回
19. main rival 主要競爭對手
20. trace its roots 追根溯源
21. defeated the nationalists 戰敗的國民黨
22. flee to 逃往
23. be usurped 被篡奪
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In recent years, that concept of One China has proved a useful compromise, Taiwanese supporters of it argue. China insists on its acceptance as a prerequisite for building economic ties with Taiwan, precisely because doing so is an explicit denial of its existence as a de facto island state.
24. a useful compromise 有用的協定, 妥協
25. insist on 堅持
26. a prerequisite for... ...的先決條件
27. build economic ties 建立經濟聯繫
28. a explicit denial 明確否認
29. de facto 事實上
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But it is clear that Ms Tsai* believes her victory is proof of how little appetite there now is for the One China concept and the ambiguity it allowed over Taiwan's real status. "The situation has changed," she says. "The ambiguity can no longer serve the purposes it was intended to serve." And what has really changed, she suggests, is China.
-\-\BBC
30. it is clear that… ...是清楚的
31. proof of… …的證明
32. how little appetite there is for... 對...沒有多少胃口; 對...不接受
33. One China concept 一個中國的概念
34. ambiguity 模棱兩可
35. real status 真實狀態
36. intend to serve… 所欲實現的(成效)
*President Tsai
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"Because [for more than] three years we're seeing China has been intensifying its threat... they have their military vessels and aircraft cruising around the island," she says. "And also, the things happening in Hong Kong, people get a real sense that this threat is real and it's getting more and more serious."
37. intensify its threat 加劇威脅
38. military vessels and aircrafts 軍艦和飛機
39. get more serious 變得更嚴重
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Taiwan's interests, she believes, are not best served by semantics but by facing up to the reality, in particular the aspirations of the Taiwanese youth who flocked to her cause. "We have a separate identity and we're a country of our own. So, if there's anything that runs counter to this idea, they will stand up and say that's not acceptable to us. "We're a successful democracy, we have a pretty decent economy, we deserve respect from China."
40. Taiwan’s interests are not best served by semantics. 文字遊戲並非最佳實現台灣利益(的方式)
41. semantics 語義學; 文字遊戲
42. face up to reality 面對現實
43. the aspirations of the Taiwanese youth 台灣青年的志向
44. flock to her cause 湧向她的目標
45. a separate identity 一個單獨的、不同的身份
46. run counter to 違反;有悖常理,背道而馳
47. a decent economy 像樣的、相當不錯的經濟制度
48. deserve respect 值得尊重
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Sources
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51115705
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246
https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5098630
Image source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51104246
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時事英文大全: https://wp.me/p44l9b-1Y8
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喜歡我們的影片嗎?請訂閱我們的頻道,即時更新最新的中文遊戲影片喔~
您的每一次觀看、每一個訂閱都是我們最大的支持,也是我們繼續製作這些影片的動力喔~
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call of war中文 在 老熊皮 Youtube 的精選貼文
PC版【決勝時刻:黑色行動 - 冷戰】劇情攻略
Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War GameMovie
推出平台:PC, PS4, Xbox One, PS5, Xbox One X
=====================
老熊皮粉絲團 https://www.facebook.com/BearGameStation
=====================
喜歡我們的影片嗎?請訂閱我們的頻道,即時更新最新的中文遊戲影片喔~
您的每一次觀看、每一個訂閱都是我們最大的支持,也是我們繼續製作這些影片的動力喔~
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