[時事英文] 各國如何面對新冠疫情?
讓我最有感觸的一句:
"The rise of populism has exacerbated the problem by reducing the incentives of countries to cooperate. "
「民粹主義的興起減少了各國合作的意願,使問題更加嚴重。」
—NY Times
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In Frankfurt, the president of the European Central Bank warned that the coronavirus could trigger an economic crash as dire as that of 2008. In Berlin, the German chancellor warned the virus could infect two-thirds of her country’s population. In London, the British prime minister rolled out a nearly $40 billion rescue package to cushion his economy from the shock.
1. trigger an economic crash 引發經濟崩潰
2. dire 嚴重的;危急的
3. roll out 推出
4. rescue package 救助計劃
5. to cushion sth from… 對(某事物的影響或力量)起緩衝作用
在法蘭克福,歐洲央行行長警告說,冠狀病毒可能引發與2008年一樣嚴重的經濟崩潰。在柏林,德國總理警告說,病毒可能導致該國三分之二的人口感染。在倫敦,英國首相推出了將近400億美元的一系列救助計劃,以緩解經濟受到的衝擊。
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As the toll of those afflicted by the virus continued to soar and financial markets from Tokyo to New York continued to swoon, world leaders are finally starting to find their voices about the gravity of what is now officially a pandemic.
6. the toll of… 的傷亡;損失;破壞
7. the death toll 死亡人數
8. afflict 使痛苦;使苦惱;折磨
9. swoon 低迷*
10. find their voices about 願意開口談及
11. the gravity of …的嚴重性
隨著感染者的死亡人數持續飆升,從東京到紐約的金融市場持續低迷,世界各國領導人終於開始談及這場已正式定性為大流行病的疫情的嚴重性。
*http://bit.ly/3b7PZK8
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Yet it remains less a choir than a cacophony — a dissonant babble of politicians all struggling, in their own way, to cope with the manifold challenges posed by the virus, from its crushing burden on hospitals and health care workers to its economic devastation and rising death toll.
12. cacophony 刺耳嘈雜的聲音;雜音
13. a dissonant babble of... 七嘴八舌的...
14. manifold challenges 多種多樣的挑戰
15. economic devastation 經濟崩解
然而,與其說是合唱,這更像一種刺耳的喧囂——一群七嘴八舌的政客用各自的方式努力應對這種病毒所帶來的各種挑戰,從超負荷的醫院和醫護人員到崩潰的經濟和與日俱增的死亡人數。
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The choir also lacks a conductor, a role played through most of the post-World War II era by the United States.
這個合唱團還欠缺指揮,在二戰戰後的大部分時間裡,這個角色是由美國扮演的。
President Trump has failed to work with other leaders to fashion a common response, preferring to promote travel bans and his border wall over the scientific advice of his own medical experts. Mr. Trump’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has taken to calling it the “Wuhan virus,” vilifying the country where it originated and complicating efforts to coordinate a global response.
16. lack (v.) 缺少,缺乏*
17. to fashion a common response 形成一致的回應
18. travel ban 旅行禁令
19. take to sth 開始從事;形成…的習慣
20. vilify 詆毀,誣衊;醜化;貶低
21. complicate 使複雜化;使更難懂;使更麻煩
川普總統未能與其他領導人合作形成一致的回應,他寧願推動旅行禁令和他的邊境牆,而不是他自己的醫學專家的科學建議。川普的國務卿邁克·龐皮歐(Mike Pompeo)把它叫做「武漢病毒」,醜化其發源國,使協調全球響應的工作更加艱難。
*lack, lack of, lacking: http://bit.ly/33LrOhw
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週三,川普總統在白宮會見了銀行家,討論如何應對冠狀病毒。
The same denigration of science and urge to block outsiders has characterized leaders from China to Iran, as well as right-wing populists in Europe, which is sowing cynicism and leaving people uncertain of who to believe. Far from trying to stamp out the virus, strongmen like President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia have seized on the upheaval it is causing as cover for steps to consolidate their power.
22. the denigration of science 對科學的詆毀
23. characterize (v.) 是…的特徵;為…所特有
24. right-wing populists 右翼民粹主義者
25. sow a seed of 播下了…的種子
26. cynicism 犬儒主義;憤世嫉俗
27. stamp sth out 消除,消滅
28. upheaval 動盪
29. consolidate their power 鞏固自己的力量
從中國到伊朗的領導人,乃至歐洲的右翼民粹主義者,都有同樣的對科學的詆毀和對外人的排斥,這播下了疑神疑鬼的種子,讓人們不知道該相信誰。俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普丁(Vladimir V. Putin)和沙烏地阿拉伯王儲穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)等強人領袖並沒有去試圖消滅病毒,而是趁機以其引發的動盪為掩護,鞏固自己的力量。
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Yet it is too simple to lay all this at Mr. Trump’s door, or on world leaders collectively. Part of the problem is simply the fiendish nature of the pathogen.
30. lay sth at sb's door 將…歸咎於(某人)
31. fiendish 惡魔般的;殘忍的
32. pathogen 病原體
然而,將一切推到川普身上,或一股腦推到各國領導人身上,都過於簡單了。部分問題實際上源於病原體的殘忍特性。
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Coronavirus has resisted the tools that countries have brought to bear against previous global scourges. Mysterious in its transmission and relentless in its spread, it has led countries to try wildly divergent responses. The lack of common standards on testing, on the cancellation of public gatherings and on quarantines have deepened the anxiety of people and eroded confidence in their leaders.
33. to bear against 抵禦
34. global scourges 全球災禍
35. wildly divergent responses 截然不同的應對方式
36. quarantine 隔離
37. eroded confidence 削弱對…的信心
各國為抵禦先前的全球災禍而使用的工具,被冠狀病毒一一擊敗。詭異的感染方式,持續不懈的傳播,已經導致各國不得不嘗試各種截然不同的應對方式。在病毒測試、取消公共聚會和隔離方法上缺乏一致的標準,這加劇了人們的焦慮,並削弱了他們對領導者的信心。
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The simultaneous shocks to supply and demand — shuttered iPhone factories in China; empty gondolas in Venice; and passengers abandoning cruises, hotels and airlines everywhere else — is a new phenomenon that may not respond to the weapons government wielded against the dislocation that followed the September 2001 terrorist attacks and the financial crisis of 2008.
38. simultaneous shocks 同時衝擊
39. supply and demand 供需
40. the weapons wielded against... 為抵禦...所鍛造的武器
供給和需求在同一時刻受到衝擊——被關閉的中國iPhone工廠;威尼斯空無一人的貢多拉;以及其他地方旅客放棄前往的郵輪、旅館和航班——政府在2001年9月的恐怖襲擊以及2008年金融危機後為抵禦混亂所鍛造的武器,恐怕難以用來對付這種新的現象。
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“The nature of this crisis is qualitatively different than the one in 2008 because the traditional tools are not as effective,” said Richard N. Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Even if the U.S. took a leadership role, the traditional playbook would not be all that relevant here.”
41. the nature of …的性質
42. be qualitatively different 有本質區別
43. playbook 方案
「這次危機的性質,與2008年危機有本質區別,因為傳統手段的效果不佳,」外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)主席理查德·N·哈斯(Richard N. Haass)說。「即使美國發揮領導作用,傳統方案用在現在的情況沒有多大意義。」
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Britain, for example, won praise for its robust economic response, which, in addition to billions of pounds for hospitals and workers sidelined by illness, included a sharp interest rate cut by the Bank of England.
44. won praise for 贏得讚譽
45. robust economic response 強勁的經濟反應
46. in addition to 此外
47. be sidelined by illness 因疾病而停工
48. a sharp interest rate cut大幅降息
例如,英國因其強勁的經濟應對而贏得讚譽,他們不僅為醫院和因疾病而停工的工人提供了數十億英鎊撥款,還包括英格蘭銀行的大幅降息。
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Yet stocks in London still tumbled, if not as steeply as on Wall Street, where investors brushed off Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s proposal to allow Americans to delay paying their income taxes, which he claimed would pump $200 billion into the economy.
49. tumbled (價值)暴跌,驟降
50. steeply 徒峭地;險峻地
51. brush off 漠視,不理睬
然而,倫敦股市仍然下跌,儘管跌幅不及華爾街。面對財政部長史蒂芬·馬努欽(Steven Mnuchin)提出的允許美國人緩交所得稅的提議,華爾街投資人不為所動,馬努欽聲稱此舉將為經濟注入2000億美元。
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Mr. Trump’s other big idea, a cut in the payroll tax, was pronounced a “non-starter” by House Democrats, who scrambled instead to introduce legislation to provide financial help to patients, workers and families affected by the fast-moving epidemic and speed it to a House vote on Thursday.
52. payroll tax 薪金稅
53. non-starter 無成功希望的人(或想法、計劃)
54. House Democrats 眾議院民主黨議員
55. scramble to 爭搶(去做)
川普先生的另一個大想法是削減薪金稅,眾議院民主黨議員宣布這「不可能」,他們慌忙提出立法,在財務上幫助受迅速傳播的流行病影響的患者、工人和家庭,並且快速提交至週四的眾議院投票。
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To Mr. Haass, the intense focus on limiting the economic blow was understandable, given the carnage in the markets, but premature. He said countries needed to put their energy into slowing and mitigating the spread of the virus before they embarked on fiscal programs to repair the economic damage.
56. carnage (尤指戰爭中的)大屠殺,殘殺
57. carnage in the markets 市場的慘狀
58. premature 過早的;不成熟的;倉促的
59. mitigate 減緩
60. embarked on sth 開始,著手做(新的或重要的事情)
61. fiscal programs 財政計劃
哈斯認為,考慮到市場的慘狀,集中精力抑制經濟衝擊是可以理解的,但為時過早。他說,各國在開始實施財政計劃以修復經濟損失之前,需要投入精力以減慢並緩和病毒的傳播。
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The trouble is that, with few exceptions, their efforts have been hapless. In the United States, the delay in developing coronavirus test kits and the scarcity of tests has made it impossible for officials, even weeks after the first cases appeared in the country, to get a true picture of the scale of the outbreak.
62. hapless幸運的;不愉快的
63. the scarcity of …的缺乏
64. the scale of the outbreak 疫情的真實規模
問題是,除了少數例外,他們的努力都沒有什麼好結果。在美國,由於開發冠狀病毒檢測工具的進度遲緩,以及檢測手段的缺乏,官員們甚至在出現本國第一例病例數週後仍無法了解疫情的真實規模。
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In hard-hit Italy, quarrels broke out between politicians and medical experts over whether the authorities were testing too many people in Lombardy, inflating the infection figures and fueling panic in the public. Italy’s response could be weakened further by the anti-vaccination movement that was once embraced by the populist Five Star Movement, which took power in the last government.
65. hard-hit 受災嚴重的
66. inflate 抬高;誇大
67. fueling panic加劇恐慌
68. anti-vaccination movement 反疫苗運動
69. populist 民粹主義政黨
70. took power 執政
在受災嚴重的義大利,政界人士和醫學專家爭論當局是否在倫巴第對太多人進行測試,誇大感染人數,加劇公眾恐慌。義大利的反應可能會遭到反疫苗運動的進一步削弱。該運動曾受上屆執政的民粹主義政黨五星運動(Five Star Movement)的支持。
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義大利倫巴第地區是世界上受災最嚴重的地區之一,人們戴著口罩。
Even comparing one country’s case count to another’s is almost impossible, given the different testing procedures and diagnostic criteria around the world, said Dr. Chris Smith, a specialist in virology at the University of Cambridge.
71. testing procedures 檢測程序
72. diagnostic criteria 診斷標準
劍橋大學(University of Cambridge)病毒學專家克里斯·史密斯(Chris Smith)博士表示,考慮到世界各地不同的檢測程序和診斷標準,連對兩個國家的病例數進行比較幾乎都是不可能的。
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In the most extreme example, China’s case count skyrocketed when it began recording positives based on people’s symptoms, rather than a lab test, the method most countries are still using. But even lab tests might yield different results in different places, depending on the targets labs are using and the ways health workers collect and process specimens.
73. based on people’s symptom 根據某人癥狀
74. case count skyrocketed 病例數大幅飆升
75. yield different results 產生不同的結果
最極端的例子是,當中國開始根據癥狀而不是大多數國家仍在使用的實驗室檢測來計算確診病例時,病例數出現了大幅飆升。但即使是實驗室測試,不同的地方也可能產生不同的結果,這取決於實驗室使用的對象以及醫務人員收集和處理標本的方式。
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“Different countries are doing different things,” Dr. Smith said of the testing programs. “You’re not comparing apples to apples.”
「不同的國家正在做不同的事情,」史密斯談到測試項目時說。「這不是蘋果和蘋果之間的對比。」
The rise of populism has exacerbated the problem by reducing the incentives of countries to cooperate. European leaders, in a three-hour teleconference on Tuesday night, agreed to set up a 25 billion euro investment fund, or $28.1 billion, and to relax rules governing airlines to curb the economic fallout.
76. exacerbated the problem 使問題更加嚴重
77. the incentives of 誘因
78. teleconference 電話會議
79. curb the economic fallout 遏制經濟危機的影響
民粹主義的興起減少了各國合作的意願,使問題更加嚴重。歐洲領導人週二晚間舉行了三小時的電話會議,同意設立一個250億歐元(合1930億元人民幣)的投資基金,並放鬆對航空公司的監管,以遏制經濟危機的影響。
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But they failed to overcome national objections to sharing medical equipment like face masks and respirators, given that health issues are the responsibility of national governments. Germany, the Czech Republic and other countries have tightened export restrictions on this gear to keep it for their own citizens.
80. failed to overcome 未能克服
81. respirator 呼吸器
82. tightened export restrictions on… 加強了…的出口限制
83. gear (從事某活動的)裝備,用具,衣服
但他們未能克服各國對分享口罩和呼吸器等醫療器械的反對,因為健康問題是國家政府的責任。德國、捷克共和國等國家已經加強了對這些設備的出口限制,以便將其留給本國公民。
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Chancellor Angela Merkel’s warning that the virus would infect 60 percent to 70 percent of people in Germany — a figure she attributed to the “consensus among experts” — was the most forthright admission of the scale of the problem by any world leader. It was fully in character for a physicist-turned-politician, reinforcing her status as the liberal West’s foil to Mr. Trump.
84. attributed to 歸於
85. consensus among experts 專家共識
86. forthright (過於)坦誠的,直率的;直截了當的
87. reinforce 強化,加深,進一步證實(觀點、看法等)
88. the liberal West’s foil 自由主義西方世界中的對比
89. foil 陪襯物*
德國總理安哥拉·梅克爾(Angela Merkel)警告說,這種病毒將感染德國60%到70%的人——她稱這一數字來自「專家共識」——這是世界各國領導人對該問題嚴重性最坦率的承認態度。這完全符合從物理學家轉型為政治家的梅克爾的性格,令她進一步成為自由主義西方世界中川普的一個鮮明對比。
*http://bit.ly/3deYyVe
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“We will do whatever is needed,” she said. “We won’t ask every day, ‘What does this mean for our deficit?’”
90. deficit 赤字
「我們會竭盡所能,」她說。「我們不會每天都問,『這對我們的赤字有什麼影響?』」
Yet even Ms. Merkel’s position has been weakened by the resurgence of the far right in Germany. Germany rebuffed a request for medical equipment from Italy, only to see China offer the Italians an aid package that includes two million face masks and 100,000 respirators.
91. a resurgence of 復甦;復興;再次興起
92. far right 極右翼勢力
93. rebuff 斷然拒絕
94. only to do sth 不料卻,沒想到卻
然而,就連梅克爾的地位也被德國極右翼勢力的復甦削弱了。德國拒絕了義大利提供醫療器械的請求,中國卻向義大利提供了包括200萬隻口罩和10萬隻呼吸器在內的援助。
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In Britain, which left the European Union in January, there are already fears that the country will not have access to a vaccine, or will have to pay more for it than other European countries. Mr. Johnson’s government, which won its recent election on a populist-inflected platform of “Get Brexit Done,” is now struggling with how to communicate the risks of the outbreak to its public.
95. a vaccine 疫苗
96. platform 綱領,政綱,宣言
在今年1月脫離歐盟的英國,已經有人擔心該國將無法獲得疫苗,或者將不得不支付比其他歐洲國家更多的費用。強生的政府在最近的選舉中獲勝,憑藉的是受民粹主義影響的「完成脫歐」(Get Brexit Done)宣言。如今這個政府正在吃力地向民眾宣講疫情暴發的風險。
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The Johnson government has put a lot of stock in a so-called nudge unit in Downing Street that specializes in behavioral psychology. But in trying to calibrate its response to what it deemed people capable of processing, the government risked condescending to Britons, said John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for the northwest of England.
97. put a lot of stock in 投入了大量資金
98. so-called 所謂
99. nudge unit 哄勸部門
100. behavioral psychology 行為心理學
101. calibrate 判斷;劃分刻度,標定
102. deem 認為,視為;覺得
103. condescending 表現出高…一等的姿態的,帶有優越感地對待…的
強生政府在唐寧街設立了一個擅長行為心理學的所謂「哄勸」部門,為此投入了大量資金。但前英格蘭西北部地區公共衛生主任約翰·阿什頓(John Ashton)說,政府在判斷人們的接受限度,並以這個限度為依據來制定自己的應對措施,這可能是在用一種假惺惺的屈就方式對待英國人民。
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Britain has only recently started publishing broad breakdowns of where people are contracting the virus. Mr. Ashton said they should be giving much more detailed information, as in Hong Kong, which has published building-level maps of patients who have gotten sick, when they were there and how they contracted the virus.
英國直到最近才開始公布感染髮生的具體地點。阿什頓說,他們應該提供更詳細的信息,就像香港一樣。香港公布了具體到建築的患者地圖,並提供他們在那裡的時間和感染病毒的方式。
“I think it’s patronizing — they need to keep the public fully in the picture,” Mr. Ashton said. “You have to treat the public as adults, instead of keeping them in the dark. That’s where you get rumor and hysteria. They actually create panic by not being open with people.”
104. patronizing 屈尊俯就的;自以為高人一等的
105. keep sb in the picture 使(某人)了解情況
106. keeping sb in the dark 蒙在鼓裡
107. rumor and hysteria 謠言和歇斯底里
「我認為這是一種哄人的姿態——他們需要讓公眾充分了解情況,」阿什頓說。「你必須像對待成年人一樣對待公眾,而不是把他們蒙在鼓裡。謠言和歇斯底里就是這麼來的。他們不向人民開誠布公,實際上是在製造恐慌。」
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完整報導: https://nyti.ms/2J070dm
圖片來源: http://bit.ly/2U1tgJS
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這篇文章你最喜歡哪一句? 辛苦的小編把所有的關鍵片語都列出來了! 同學會持續的看到這些關鍵詞彙和句型出現在我們所有的時事英文喔!
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台灣的應對: http://bit.ly/3a6NSGu
保健心智圖: https://goo.gl/seqt5k
保健相關單字: https://wp.me/p44l9b-Tt (+mp3)
時事英文大全: http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
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這一週的「時事英文」講義和使用方式: https://bit.ly/3a9rr38
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過1萬的網紅DJ Yin 盈盈 ,也在其Youtube影片中提到,第二隻影片來啦! 這次要來開箱我去倫敦住的這間酒店!超級小!奇怪的是它是很小沒錯,可是我卻沒有很Pek Chek耶,為什麼會這樣呢? 看了影片可能就有答案啦~ 喜歡這隻影片的話請多多幫我分享出去喔~ GamXiaHamitta~ ? ?更多旅遊影片陸續有來! #英國 #倫敦 #自由行 ✨✨...
central london hotels 在 元毓 Facebook 的最佳解答
根據計算,100萬人遊行隊伍要從維多利亞公園排到廣東;200萬人遊行則要排到泰國。
順道一提香港15~30歲人口約莫100出頭萬人。以照片人群幾乎都是此年齡帶來看,兩個數字都是明顯誇大太多了。
另一個可以參考的是1969年的Woodstock Music & Art Fair,幾天內湧進40萬人次,照片看起來也是滿山滿谷的人。(http://sites.psu.edu/…/upl…/sites/851/2013/01/Woodstock3.jpg)
當年40萬人次引發驚人的大塞車,幾乎花十幾個小時才逐漸清場。
而香港遊行清場速度明顯快得多。
順道一提,因此運動而認定「你的父母不愛你」的白痴論述也如同文化大革命時的「爹親娘親不如毛主席親」般開始出現:
https://www.facebook.com/SaluteToHKPolice/videos/350606498983830/UzpfSTUyNzM2NjA3MzoxMDE1NjMyMTM4NjY3MTA3NA/
EVERY MAJOR NEWS outlet in the world is reporting that two million people, well over a quarter of our population, joined a single protest.
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It’s an astonishing thought that filled an enthusiastic old marcher like me with pride. Unfortunately, it’s almost certainly not true.
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A march of two million people would fill a street that was 58 kilometers long, starting at Victoria Park in Hong Kong and ending in Tanglangshan Country Park in Guangdong, according to one standard crowd estimation technique.
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If the two million of us stood in a queue, we’d stretch 914 kilometers (568 miles), from Victoria Park to Thailand. Even if all of us marched in a regiment 25 people abreast, our troop would stretch towards the Chinese border.
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Yes, there was a very large number of us there. But getting key facts wrong helps nobody. Indeed, it could hurt the protesters more than anyone.
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For math geeks only, here’s a discussion of the actual numbers that I hope will interest you whatever your political views.
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DO NUMBERS MATTER?
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People have repeatedly asked me to find out “the real number” of people at the recent mass rallies in Hong Kong.
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I declined for an obvious reason: There was a huge number of us. What does it matter whether it was hundreds of thousands or a million? That’s not important.
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But my critics pointed out that the word “million” is right at the top of almost every report about the marches. Clearly it IS important.
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FIRST, THE SCIENCE
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In the west, drone photography is analyzed to estimate crowd sizes.
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This reporter apologizes for not having found a comprehensive database of drone images of the Hong Kong protests.
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But we can still use related methods, such as density checks, crowd-flow data and impact assessments. Universities which have gathered Hong Kong protest march data using scientific methods include Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Hong Kong, and Hong Kong Baptist University.
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DENSITY CHECKS
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Figures gathered in the past by Hong Kong Polytechnic specialists using satellite photo analysis found a density level of one square meter per marcher. Modern analysis suggests this remains roughly accurate.
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I know from experience that Hong Kong marches feature long periods of normal spacing (one square meter or one and half per person, walking) and shorter periods of tight spacing (half a square meter or less per person, mostly standing).
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JOINERS AND SPEED
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We need to include people who join halfway. In the past, a Hong Kong University analysis using visual counting methods cross-referenced with one-on-one interviews indicated that estimates should be boosted by 12% to accurately reflect late joiners. These days, we’re much more generous in estimating joiners.
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As for speed, a Hong Kong Baptist University survey once found a passing rate of 4,000 marchers every ten minutes.
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Videos of the recent rallies indicates that joiner numbers and stop-start progress were highly erratic and difficult to calculate with any degree of certainty.
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DISTANCE MULTIPLIED BY DENSITY
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But scientists have other tools. We know the walking distance between Victoria Park and Tamar Park is 2.9 kilometers. Although there was overspill, the bulk of the marchers went along Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, which is about 25 meters (or 82 feet) wide, and similar connected roads, some wider, some narrower.
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Steve Doig, a specialist in crowd analysis approached by the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), analyzed an image of Hong Kong marchers to find a density level of 7,000 people in a 210-meter space. Although he emphasizes that crowd estimates are never an exact science, that figure means one million Hong Kong marchers would need a street 18.6 miles long – which is 29 kilometers.
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Extrapolating these figures for the June 16 claim of two million marchers, you’d need a street 58 kilometers long.
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Could this problem be explained away by the turnover rate of Hong Kong marchers, which likely allowed the main (three kilometer) route to be filled more than once?
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The answer is yes, to some extent. But the crowd would have to be moving very fast to refill the space a great many times over in a single afternoon and evening. It wasn’t. While I can walk the distance from Victoria Park to Tamar in 41 minutes on a quiet holiday afternoon, doing the same thing during a march takes many hours.
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More believable: There was a huge number of us, but not a million, and certainly not two million.
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IMPACT MEASUREMENTS
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A second, parallel way of analyzing the size of the crowd is to seek evidence of the effects of the marchers’ absence from their normal roles in society.
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If we extract two million people out of a population of 7.4 million, many basic services would be severely affected while many others would grind to a complete halt.
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Manpower-intensive sectors of society, such as transport, would be badly affected by mass absenteeism. Industries which do their main business on the weekends, such as retail, restaurants, hotels, tourism, coffee shops and so on would be hard hit. Round-the-clock operations such as hospitals and emergency services would be severely troubled, as would under-the-radar jobs such as infrastructure and utility maintenance.
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There seems to be no evidence that any of that happened in Hong Kong.
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HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS?
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To understand that, a bit of historical context is necessary.
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In 2003, a very large number of us walked from Victoria Park to Central. The next day, newspapers gave several estimates of crowd size.
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The differences were small. Academics said it was 350,000 plus. The police counted 466,000. The organizers, a group called the Civil Rights Front, rounded it up to 500,000.
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No controversy there. But there was trouble ahead.
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THINGS FALL APART
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At a repeat march the following year, it was obvious to all of us that our numbers were far lower that the previous year. The people counting agreed: the academics said 194,000 and the police said 200,000.
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But the Civil Rights Front insisted that there were MORE than the previous year’s march: 530,000 people.
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The organizers lost credibility even with us, their own supporters. To this day, we all quote the 2003 figure as the high point of that period, ignoring their 2004 invention.
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THE TRUTH COUNTS
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The organizers had embarrassed the marchers. The following year several organizations decided to serve us better, with detailed, scientific counts.
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After the 2005 march, the academics said the headcount was between 60,000 and 80,000 and the police said 63,000. Separate accounts by other independent groups agreed that it was below 100,000.
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But the organizers? The Civil Rights Front came out with the awkward claim that it was a quarter of a million. Ouch. (This data is easily confirmed from multiple sources in newspaper archives.)
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AN UNEXPECTED TWIST
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But then came a twist. Some in the Western media chose to present ONLY the organizer’s “outlier” claim.
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“Dressed in black and chanting ‘one man, one vote’, a quarter of a million people marched through Hong Kong yesterday,” said the Times of London in 2005.
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“A quarter of a million protesters marched through Hong Kong yesterday to demand full democracy from their rulers in Beijing,” reported the UK Independent.
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It became obvious that international media outlets were committed to emphasizing whichever claim made the Hong Kong government (and by extension, China) look as bad as possible. Accuracy was nowhere in the equation.
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STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN
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At universities in Hong Kong, there were passionate discussions about the apparent decision to pump up the numbers as a strategy, with the international media in mind. Activists saw two likely positive outcomes.
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First, anyone who actually wanted the truth would choose a middle point as the “real” number: thus it was worth making the organizers’ number as high as possible. (The police could be presented as corrupt puppets of Beijing.)
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Second, international reporters always favored the largest number, since it implicitly criticized China. Once the inflated figure was established in the Western media, it would become the generally accepted figure in all publications.
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Both of the activists’ predictions turned out to be bang on target. In the following years, headcounts by social scientists and police were close or even impressively confirmed the other—but were ignored by the agenda-driven international media, who usually printed only the organizers’ claims.
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SKIP THIS SECTION
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Skip this section unless you want additional examples to reinforce the point.
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In 2011, researchers and police said that between 63,000 and 95,000 of us marched. Our delightfully imaginative organizers multiplied by four to claim there were 400,000 of us.
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In 2012, researchers and police produced headcounts similar to the previous year: between 66,000 and 97,000. But the organizers claimed that it was 430,000. (These data can also be easily confirmed in any newspaper archive.)
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SKIP THIS SECTION TOO
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Unless you’re interested in the police angle. Why are police figures seen as lower than others? On reviewing data, two points emerge.
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First, police estimates rise and fall with those of independent researchers, suggesting that they function correctly: they are not invented. Many are slightly lower, but some match closely and others are slightly higher. This suggests that the police simply have a different counting method.
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Second, police sources explain that live estimates of attendance are used for “effective deployment” of staff. The number of police assigned to work on the scene is a direct reflection of the number of marchers counted. Thus officers have strong motivation to avoid deliberately under-estimating numbers.
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RECENT MASS RALLIES
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Now back to the present: this hot, uncomfortable summer.
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Academics put the 2019 June 9 rally at 199,500, and police at 240,000. Some people said the numbers should be raised or even doubled to reflect late joiners or people walking on parallel roads. Taking the most generous view, this gave us total estimates of 400,000 to 480,000.
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But the organizers, God bless them, claimed that 1.03 million marched: this was four times the researchers’ conservative view and more than double the generous view.
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The addition of the “.03m” caused a bit of mirth among social scientists. Even an academic writing in the rabidly pro-activist Hong Kong Free Press struggled to accept it. “Undoubtedly, the anti-amendment group added the extra .03 onto the exact one million figure in order to give their estimate a veneer of accuracy,” wrote Paul Stapleton.
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MIND-BOGGLING ESTIMATE
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But the vast majority of international media and social media printed ONLY the organizers’ eyebrow-raising claim of a million plus—and their version soon fed back into the system and because the “accepted” number. (Some mentioned other estimates in early reports and then dropped them.)
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The same process was repeated for the following Sunday, June 16, when the organizers’ frankly unbelievable claim of “about two million” was taken as gospel in the majority of international media.
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“Two million people in Hong Kong protest China's growing influence,” reported Fox News.
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“A record two million people – over a quarter of the city’s population” joined the protest, said the Guardian this morning.
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“Hong Kong leader apologizes as TWO MILLION take to the streets,” said the Sun newspaper in the UK.
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Friends, colleagues, fellow journalists—what happened to fact-checking? What happened to healthy skepticism? What happened to attempts at balance?
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CONCLUSIONS?
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I offer none. I prefer that you do your own research and draw your own conclusions. This is just a rough overview of the scientific and historical data by a single old-school citizen-journalist working in a university coffee shop.
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I may well have made errors on individual data points, although the overall message, I hope, is clear.
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Hong Kong people like to march.
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We deserve better data.
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We need better journalism. Easily debunked claims like “more than a quarter of the population hit the streets” help nobody.
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International media, your hostile agendas are showing. Raise your game.
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Organizers, stop working against the scientists and start working with them.
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Hong Kong people value truth.
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We’re not stupid. (And we’re not scared of math!)
central london hotels 在 DJ Yin 盈盈 Youtube 的最讚貼文
第二隻影片來啦!
這次要來開箱我去倫敦住的這間酒店!超級小!奇怪的是它是很小沒錯,可是我卻沒有很Pek Chek耶,為什麼會這樣呢?
看了影片可能就有答案啦~
喜歡這隻影片的話請多多幫我分享出去喔~ GamXiaHamitta~ ?
?更多旅遊影片陸續有來!
#英國 #倫敦 #自由行
✨✨✨✨✨✨
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