「The harsh reality is that economic relationships between pegged regimes must be harmonized or they are destined to fail。」
— Kyle Bass「The Quiet Panic in Hong Kong」
梧：What Kyle Bass essentially means is this — it made sense in the 80s for Hong Kong to peg its currency to the USD as it was China’s main window to the outside world, particularly to the US. When such a net export relationship exists between them, it means that their economic cycle is pretty much aligned. This is why it made sense to peg.
That is not to say this relationship had changed at all — China is still a net exporter to the US, but the thing is that Hong Kong IS NO LONGER A NET EXPORTER TO THE US. A net import relationship now exists, and here comes the punchline — these trades are still made in USD, which means that the relationship is not just reversed but ambiguous; and then there’s the China factor — exports to China which were made in CNY.
When pegged regimes are no longer harmonised, the peg itself no longer makes economic sense......
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