ตอนนี้ เริ่มมีฝนตกมากขึ้น หรือมีพายุฝนในบางพื้นที่ด้วย ทำเอาหลายคนกังวลว่า ปีนี้จะเกิดน้ำท่วมใหญ่หรือเปล่า ?
ถ้าดูจากพยากรณ์เรื่องของการเกิด "เอลนีโญ-ลานีญา" ขององค์กร NOAA จะพบว่า ช่วงนี้แบบจำลองต่างๆพยากรณ์ว่า จะอยู่ในค่ากลาง (neutral) ไปตลอดฤดูร้อนของประเทศซีกโลกเหนือ ยาวไปถึงช่วงฤดูใบไม้ร่วง (เดือนสิงหาคมถึงตุลาคม)
เมื่อเป็นค่ากลาง ก็แสดงว่า ไม่ได้จะเกิดสภาวะแล้งจัด จากเอลนีโญ หรือเกิดสภาวะฝนตกหนักจัด จากลานีญา แต่จะเป็นฝนฟ้าตามฤดูกาล
แต่ขณะเดียวกัน ก็มีแนวโน้มว่า จะเริ่มเกิดสภาวะลานินญ่า ในช่วงตั้งแต่กันยายนไปจนถึงพฤศจิกายน และน่าจะยาวไปตลอดฤดูหนาวจนถึงปีหน้า (พฤศจิกายนถึงมกราคม)
อย่างไรก็ตาม ก็อย่าประมาทนะครับ พื้นที่ดอนที่แห้งแล้ง ก็ยังควรจะต้องพยายามเก็บน้ำเอาไว้ หรือถ้าเป็นพื้นที่ลุ่ม ก็เตรียมระวังการเกิดฝนตกชุก จนน้ำป่าไหลหลาก น้ำท่วมได้ ตามปกติครับ
-----
จาก https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. However, the latest forecast model runs from the NCEP CFSv2, many of the models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, and some models from our international partners indicate the onset of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall, continuing into winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus favors these model ensembles, while also noting the historical tendency for a second winter of La Niña to follow the first. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer and into the fall (51% chance for the August-October season), with La Niña potentially emerging during the September-November season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (66% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).
同時也有3部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過836的網紅Janet Lee,也在其Youtube影片中提到,A fresh preview clip of my 2017's second album [Cinnabar Rouge 辰胭]. Released on April 20, 2017. Thank you William Ang for helping me with this 2021,...
「ensemble model」的推薦目錄:
- 關於ensemble model 在 อ๋อ มันเป็นอย่างนี้นี่เอง by อาจารย์เจษฎ์ Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於ensemble model 在 Bao Tranchi Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於ensemble model 在 新思惟國際 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於ensemble model 在 Janet Lee Youtube 的最讚貼文
- 關於ensemble model 在 Janet Lee Youtube 的最佳解答
- 關於ensemble model 在 Janet Lee Youtube 的最佳解答
- 關於ensemble model 在 Building Ensemble Models • PatientLevelPrediction - GitHub ... 的評價
- 關於ensemble model 在 Is there a way to ensemble two keras (h5) models trained for ... 的評價
- 關於ensemble model 在 How do ensemble methods outperform all their constituents? 的評價
ensemble model 在 Bao Tranchi Facebook 的最佳解答
🐍OWN THE THRONE🐍 now in Black Mamba print. Our famous bodysuit is now in snake print for those hot summer nights. Pair with a skirt, trouser or jeans for a sexy, summer, ensemble. #baotranchi #bodysuit #blackmamba #ownthethrone #snakeprint
Director: @brandonshowersofficial
Model: @jessicanaz
Hair: @antoinemartinez
Makeup: @kimberleebarlow
Assistant Stylist: @spiritwisdom
Music: @aurientmusic
ensemble model 在 新思惟國際 Facebook 的最讚貼文
#鄭皓元醫師課後第3篇論文
#新思惟學員天天有發表
亞熱帶的臺灣,季節性流感是公衛上重要的問題,由於 2004 年開始,臺灣 CDC 維護了很不錯的即時流感監測系統,並有詳細記錄,鄭皓元醫師與其團隊,預計使用這些巨量資料,嘗試使用機器學習,建立模型後,進一步做即時預測。
資料收入了傳染病監測系統、健保資料庫、流感重症資料,然後分別用四種模型去做機器學習,這些模型將用於預測指定的某一周,以及接下來三周的流感狀況。
用來訓練的資料是 2008 到 2014 年的,接著用 2015-2017 的資料做確認,然後更進一步用 2018 年的即時資料確認其準確度。
結果發現,所有的模型都能對季節流感的時間與強度做出準確的預測,包括指定周,以及接下來的三周,其中 ensemble model(集成模型)表現特別好。在 2018 年的真實世界使用經驗中,其預測表現也一樣相當不錯。
#期刊介紹
Journal of Medical Internet Research 創刊於 1999 年,2019 年的 impact factor 為 5.034,在 Health Care Sciences & Services 領域排名為 Q1(5/102) 期刊,在 Medical Informatics 領域排名為 Q1(2/27) 期刊。
🔔 近期校友傑出榮耀 #每天都有學員發表
[快訊] 張譽耀醫師團隊,以糞便測試預測潰瘍性大腸炎黏膜癒合狀況之研究,獲 PeerJ 刊登!
[快訊] 陳建翰醫師團隊,關於減重手術後,以評分系統預測半年後體重下降幅度之研究,獲 Scientific Reports 刊登!
[快訊] 梁宗榮醫師團隊,關於胃造口管在更換時錯位之個案報告,獲 Gastrointestinal Endoscopy 刊登!
[快訊] 劉文智醫師團隊,報告兩例嚴重膝蓋外傷併發感染並重建成功之個案,獲 Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery (Hong Kong) 刊登!
[快訊] 李紹榕醫師團隊,關於混合式手術醫師作為微創時代的心臟手術主力之致編者信,獲 The Annals of Thoracic Surgery 刊登!
2019 年新思惟研究課程之友,共 517 篇論文發表!
#論文破蛋80人
#38位為住院醫師或實見習醫師
🔔 2020 / 10 / 17(六)醫學論文與寫作工作坊
立即報名 ☛ https://mepa2014.innovarad.tw/event/
前前後後跟著老師寫論文、跑統計、投稿,但有種不踏實的感覺嗎?
覺得實際上缺乏扎實的寫作方法論嗎?
對於投稿策略也沒有想太多,投稿常常被拒絕,寫論文越來越失去熱情,但又想成為一位獨立研究者,到底該怎麼做比較有效率?
✓ 不再害怕統計,讓你親手畫出數據圖,有。
✓ 入門稿件寫作與準備要訣,有。
✓ 投稿期刊選擇策略。多元文體與學術參與,有。
✓ 還是寫不出來?過來人時間安排建議,有!
內科 #陳一銘醫師,復健科 #吳爵宏醫師,放射科 #蔡依橙醫師,與你一樣的世代,超過 200 篇 SCI 發表經驗,給你最實用的建議。
🗣 課後學員傑出榮耀
.2020 年 7 月 PubMed(SCI),共有 62 篇!
.2020 年 6 月 PubMed(SCI),共有 61 篇!
.2019 年新思惟之友 SCI 論文發表,共 517 篇!
🗣 課後學員分享
跑出統計圖表,資深長輩也能充滿鬥志及成就感!
(長庚大學 王穎筠 研究生)
七年醫學訓練沒搞懂的事,新思惟一天傳授。
(台中榮民總醫院 教學部 紀柏亦 醫師)
論文就是與世界的學者深度對話
(基隆長庚 心臟科 陳韋翔 醫師)
PGY 就來參加,超前部署寫作能力。
(成大醫院 不分科 黃品宜 醫師)
讓學術上的進度,不再原地踏步。
(亞東醫院 陳柏安 醫師)
新思惟最受歡迎研究入門課程,論文苦手必上。
立即報名 ☛ https://mepa2014.innovarad.tw/event/
ensemble model 在 Janet Lee Youtube 的最讚貼文
A fresh preview clip of my 2017's second album [Cinnabar Rouge 辰胭]. Released on April 20, 2017. Thank you William Ang for helping me with this 2021, shorter, audio track.
Album songlist:
01. 兩條路上 The Crossroad
02. 如果沒有你 I Cannot Live Without You
03. 打噴嚏 The Sneezing Song
04. 月亮的回声Gema Rembulan
05. 最后的礼物 Parting Gift (original)
06. 天涯歌女 A Songstress' Life
07. 好春宵 Spring Evening
08. 飘落 Adrift (original)
09. 请模仿我Tiru Macam Saya
10. 臉兒紅心兒笑 Red Face, Happy Heart
11. 卡門 Carmen
12. 玫瑰玫瑰我爱你 Rose Rose I Love You / 玫瑰人生 La Vie En Rose
Cinnabar Rouge album teaser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RPHIB8qtVE
Cinnabar Rouge album photoshoot (Behind The Scene): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2V8TlrO8Jc
Gema Rembulan video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPAILRFUNuY&t=158s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINNABAR ROUGE 辰胭
Poisonous addiction, to the maze of time.
辰砂有毒,胭脂是瘾,我们都迷醉在时间嫣红的迷宫里
Cinnabar Rouge, a second self-produced studio album, where Janet pays tribute to a genre that earned her title as Malaysia’s Shanghai Jazz Queen in this 12-track CD. Candidly claimed as a ‘Shanghai Jazz Fantasy Project’, the album carries ten covers and two original compositions by Tay Cher Siang with lyrics by Chiew Ruoh Peng – of three languages in the repertoire: Mandarin, Malay and French. The music director is Tay Cher Siang, jazz pianist, arranger, composer and band leader of WVC - Malaysia Jazz Ensemble. Janet worked with three renowned artistes and producers on vocal production, namely Winnie Ho, Isabell Jia Jia and Xie Songfan.
The music arrangements cover swing, ballad, retro and R&B – showing off Janet’s growing finesse in her musicality and vocals. This exquisitely designed album by Kongsi Design is both a visual and aural feast. The album includes a full color 80-page hardcover photo book that features images shot artfully by concept photographer Shah Azman, and features bilingual poems by poet Chiew Ruoh Peng.
《辰胭》是Janet Lee制作的第二张专辑。她有“大马上海爵士乐皇后”的美誉,戏称专辑是“上海爵士乐的奇幻旅程”,内有12首歌,除了10首华语、马来语、甚至法语老歌翻唱,还有两首由著名音乐人郑泽相作曲、周若鹏填词的原创作品。郑泽相也担任音乐制作,歌唱制作方面还有著名艺人、制作人何芸妮、潘沁珈及谢松汎联手打造。
编曲风格多样,有摇摆乐、民谣、复古及节奏蓝调,充分展现Janet愈趋成熟的歌艺。精致的专辑设计由"一亻一半"团队操刀,无论视觉、听觉都是一大享受。80页的全彩精装摄影集内不只有概念摄影师沙.阿兹曼的作品,还有诗人周若鹏撰写的双语新诗。
====================================================
She, the time traveler.
Songs are her spells, luring you to Old Shanghai, Nanyang and into the unknown future.
Let's wander in search of blossoming love
and wander on before it wilts.
Her stories are in the music, joy and sorrows weaved into the tune
.Be careful not to trip over a sad note, though.
This is her game,
Keep up, stay close.
她是时间旅人,歌是她的魔咒,
把听者牵引到旧上海、南洋,到未知的未来,
不断地穿梭、流浪,寻找一段开花不结果的爱情。
她的故事唱在乐章里,每次音符起伏都在诉说她的忧喜。
你要小心,莫要让迂回的旋律把你绊倒
这是她的游戏,
你可要跟紧了
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Janet Lee's pages:
www.facebook.com/JanetLeemusic
www.janetlee.my
www.instagram.com/souldoctorlee
=====================================================
Album on sale now at:
iTunes:
https://itunes.apple.com/us/album/cinnabar-rouge/id1257604774
Physical copies are now available for mail order + on site delivery, contact 6012-378 3730 or email to: [email protected]
=====================================================
Cinnabar Rouge album - The Team:
Executive Producer: Janet Lee
Music Producer & Music Director: Tay Cher Siang
Vocal Producers: Isabell 潘沁珈, Xie Songfan 謝松汎, WinnieHO 何芸妮
Composer: Tay Cher Siang
Lyricist: Chiew Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Recording & Mixing Engineer: Alex Tan
Mixing Studio: StarMount Studio
Mastering: Westside Mastering
Album & Graphic Design: Kongsi Design
Copywriting: Chiew Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Photography: Shah Azman
Model: Jonathan Wong
Hair & Makeup: Glam Virtuoso by Range Yau
Publicity: Chin Kwee Lin & Leo Yap
ensemble model 在 Janet Lee Youtube 的最佳解答
Janet Lee's second studio album [Cinnabar Rouge 辰胭]
Released on April 20, 2017
Album design by Kongsi Design
Copywriting by Zhou Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Cinnabar Rouge album sampler: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTAfv6Cp7TM
Cinnabar Rouge album teaser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RPHIB8qtVE
Cinnabar Rouge album photoshoot (Behind The Scene): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2V8TlrO8Jc
Gema Rembulan video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPAILRFUNuY&t=158s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINNABAR ROUGE 辰胭
Poisonous addiction, to the maze of time.
辰砂有毒,胭脂是瘾,我们都迷醉在时间嫣红的迷宫里
Cinnabar Rouge, a second self-produced studio album, where Janet pays tribute to a genre that earned her title as Malaysia’s Shanghai Jazz Queen in this 12-track CD. Candidly claimed as a ‘Shanghai Jazz Fantasy Project’, the album carries ten covers and two original compositions by Tay Cher Siang with lyrics by Chiew Ruoh Peng – of three languages in the repertoire: Mandarin, Malay and French. The music director is Tay Cher Siang, jazz pianist, arranger, composer and band leader of WVC - Malaysia Jazz Ensemble. Janet worked with three renowned artistes and producers on vocal production, namely Winnie Ho, Isabell Jia Jia and Xie Songfan.
The music arrangements cover swing, ballad, retro and R&B – showing off Janet’s growing finesse in her musicality and vocals. This exquisitely designed album by Kongsi Design is both a visual and aural feast. The album includes a full color 80-page hardcover photo book that features images shot artfully by concept photographer Shah Azman, and features bilingual poems by poet Chiew Ruoh Peng.
《辰胭》是Janet Lee制作的第二张专辑。她有“大马上海爵士乐皇后”的美誉,戏称专辑是“上海爵士乐的奇幻旅程”,内有12首歌,除了10首华语、马来语、甚至法语老歌翻唱,还有两首由著名音乐人郑泽相作曲、周若鹏填词的原创作品。郑泽相也担任音乐制作,歌唱制作方面还有著名艺人、制作人何芸妮、潘沁珈及谢松汎联手打造。
编曲风格多样,有摇摆乐、民谣、复古及节奏蓝调,充分展现Janet愈趋成熟的歌艺。精致的专辑设计由"一亻一半"团队操刀,无论视觉、听觉都是一大享受。80页的全彩精装摄影集内不只有概念摄影师沙.阿兹曼的作品,还有诗人周若鹏撰写的双语新诗。
====================================================
She, the time traveler.
Songs are her spells, luring you to Old Shanghai, Nanyang and into the unknown future.
Let's wander in search of blossoming love
and wander on before it wilts.
Her stories are in the music, joy and sorrows weaved into the tune
.Be careful not to trip over a sad note, though.
This is her game,
Keep up, stay close.
她是时间旅人,歌是她的魔咒,
把听者牵引到旧上海、南洋,到未知的未来,
不断地穿梭、流浪,寻找一段开花不结果的爱情。
她的故事唱在乐章里,每次音符起伏都在诉说她的忧喜。
你要小心,莫要让迂回的旋律把你绊倒
这是她的游戏,
你可要跟紧了
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Janet Lee's pages:
www.facebook.com/JanetLeemusic
www.janetlee.my
www.instagram.com/souldoctorlee
Stay tune for further updates on online album purchase on iTunes.
Album now on sale at
http://www.got1shop.com/goods.php?id=286732
Physical copies are now available for mail order + on site delivery, contact 6012-378 3730 or email to: [email protected]
=====================================================
Cinnabar Rouge album - The Team:
Executive Producer: Janet Lee
Music Producer & Music Director: Tay Cher Siang
Vocal Producers: Isabell 潘沁珈, Xie Songfan 謝松汎, WinnieHO 何芸妮
Composer: Tay Cher Siang
Lyricist: Chiew Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Recording & Mixing Engineer: Alex Tan
Mixing Studio: StarMount Studio
Mastering: Westside Mastering
Album & Graphic Design: Kongsi Design
Copywriting: Chiew Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Photography: Shah Azman
Model: Jonathan Wong
Hair & Makeup: Glam Virtuoso by Range Yau
Publicity: Chin Kwee Lin & Leo Yap
Video by 黑市 · Black Curio
01. 兩條路上 The Crossroad
02. 如果沒有你 I Cannot Live Without You
03. 打噴嚏 The Sneezing Song
04. 月亮的回声Gema Rembulan
05. 最后的礼物 Parting Gift (original)
06. 天涯歌女 A Songstress' Life
07. 好春宵 Spring Evening
08. 飘落 Adrift (original)
09. 请模仿我Tiru Macam Saya
10. 臉兒紅心兒笑 Red Face, Happy Heart
11. 卡門 Carmen
12. 玫瑰玫瑰我爱你 Rose Rose I Love You / 玫瑰人生 La Vie En Rose
ensemble model 在 Janet Lee Youtube 的最佳解答
Janet Lee's second studio album [Cinnabar Rouge 辰胭]
Released on April 20, 2017
01. 兩條路上 The Crossroad
02. 如果沒有你 I Cannot Live Without You
03. 打噴嚏 The Sneezing Song
04. 月亮的回声Gema Rembulan
05. 最后的礼物 Parting Gift (original)
06. 天涯歌女 A Songstress' Life
07. 好春宵 Spring Evening
08. 飘落 Adrift (original)
09. 请模仿我Tiru Macam Saya
10. 臉兒紅心兒笑 Red Face, Happy Heart
11. 卡門 Carmen
12. 玫瑰玫瑰我爱你 Rose Rose I Love You / 玫瑰人生 La Vie En Rose
Cinnabar Rouge album teaser: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RPHIB8qtVE
Cinnabar Rouge album photoshoot (Behind The Scene): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2V8TlrO8Jc
Gema Rembulan video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPAILRFUNuY&t=158s
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINNABAR ROUGE 辰胭
Poisonous addiction, to the maze of time.
辰砂有毒,胭脂是瘾,我们都迷醉在时间嫣红的迷宫里
Cinnabar Rouge, a second self-produced studio album, where Janet pays tribute to a genre that earned her title as Malaysia’s Shanghai Jazz Queen in this 12-track CD. Candidly claimed as a ‘Shanghai Jazz Fantasy Project’, the album carries ten covers and two original compositions by Tay Cher Siang with lyrics by Chiew Ruoh Peng – of three languages in the repertoire: Mandarin, Malay and French. The music director is Tay Cher Siang, jazz pianist, arranger, composer and band leader of WVC - Malaysia Jazz Ensemble. Janet worked with three renowned artistes and producers on vocal production, namely Winnie Ho, Isabell Jia Jia and Xie Songfan.
The music arrangements cover swing, ballad, retro and R&B – showing off Janet’s growing finesse in her musicality and vocals. This exquisitely designed album by Kongsi Design is both a visual and aural feast. The album includes a full color 80-page hardcover photo book that features images shot artfully by concept photographer Shah Azman, and features bilingual poems by poet Chiew Ruoh Peng.
《辰胭》是Janet Lee制作的第二张专辑。她有“大马上海爵士乐皇后”的美誉,戏称专辑是“上海爵士乐的奇幻旅程”,内有12首歌,除了10首华语、马来语、甚至法语老歌翻唱,还有两首由著名音乐人郑泽相作曲、周若鹏填词的原创作品。郑泽相也担任音乐制作,歌唱制作方面还有著名艺人、制作人何芸妮、潘沁珈及谢松汎联手打造。
编曲风格多样,有摇摆乐、民谣、复古及节奏蓝调,充分展现Janet愈趋成熟的歌艺。精致的专辑设计由"一亻一半"团队操刀,无论视觉、听觉都是一大享受。80页的全彩精装摄影集内不只有概念摄影师沙.阿兹曼的作品,还有诗人周若鹏撰写的双语新诗。
====================================================
She, the time traveler.
Songs are her spells, luring you to Old Shanghai, Nanyang and into the unknown future.
Let's wander in search of blossoming love
and wander on before it wilts.
Her stories are in the music, joy and sorrows weaved into the tune
.Be careful not to trip over a sad note, though.
This is her game,
Keep up, stay close.
她是时间旅人,歌是她的魔咒,
把听者牵引到旧上海、南洋,到未知的未来,
不断地穿梭、流浪,寻找一段开花不结果的爱情。
她的故事唱在乐章里,每次音符起伏都在诉说她的忧喜。
你要小心,莫要让迂回的旋律把你绊倒
这是她的游戏,
你可要跟紧了
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Janet Lee's pages:
www.facebook.com/JanetLeemusic
www.janetlee.my
www.instagram.com/souldoctorlee
=====================================================
Album on sale now at:
iTunes:
https://itunes.apple.com/us/album/cinnabar-rouge/id1257604774
got1shop.com:
http://www.got1shop.com/goods.php?id=286732
Physical copies are now available for mail order + on site delivery, contact 6012-378 3730 or email to: [email protected]
=====================================================
Cinnabar Rouge album - The Team:
Executive Producer: Janet Lee
Music Producer & Music Director: Tay Cher Siang
Vocal Producers: Isabell 潘沁珈, Xie Songfan 謝松汎, WinnieHO 何芸妮
Composer: Tay Cher Siang
Lyricist: Chiew Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Recording & Mixing Engineer: Alex Tan
Mixing Studio: StarMount Studio
Mastering: Westside Mastering
Album & Graphic Design: Kongsi Design
Copywriting: Chiew Ruoh Peng 周若鹏
Photography: Shah Azman
Model: Jonathan Wong
Hair & Makeup: Glam Virtuoso by Range Yau
Publicity: Chin Kwee Lin & Leo Yap
Album Sampler Video by: Ashley Muk
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