🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
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how are you doing recently意思 在 人造人電子金牌九安 Facebook 的最讚貼文
<脫口秀小訣竅中英翻譯-靈感篇>
文長注意!
之前小歐在脫口秀社團po了外國佛心大神脫口秀演員Gary Gulman,在twitter上連載的366個脫口秀小訣竅。
小妹就認領了靈感篇來翻譯。以下為22個小訣竅的中英文對照,若有翻的不盡理想的地方,請留言詳述,我會再看怎麼修改。原文和網誌版會放在留言處,方便大家查看。
---
Ideas
靈感
Tip No. 41: You know those quirky little things you do and think? Collect them in a file or on paper. Even if you’re a storyteller, you can use these as details to add depth and distinction to your jokes.
你了解自己做或想的古怪小事嗎? 把他們記錄在紙上或檔案夾裡。即使你是講故事的人,也可以將這些內容作為細節,以增加笑話的深度和特色。
GARY'S FAVORITES
Gary(原作者)的最愛
Tip No. 45: Don’t Hoard Jokes
Don’t worry about “burning” material on a special or album. Hoarding jokes may signal to your brain that you’re out of ideas. “You can’t use up creativity. The more you use, the more you have.” — Maya Angelou.
不要囤積笑話。不要怕在演出或專場用光自己累積的材料。囤積笑話會對你的大腦發出信號,暗示你已經沒有想法。如同Maya Angelou所說:”你無法耗盡創意。 你使用的越多,你擁有的就越多。”
Gary’s thoughts on Tip No. 45: This attitude has been crucial to an unprecedented streak of creativity over the last two years. I’ve written four hours of material, which is almost as much as I wrote in my first 23 years of comedy. Most important has been my health, this idea may be second.
Gary對此建議的想法: 在過去兩年中,這種態度對我的前所未有的創造力,有著至關重要的影響。我已經寫了四個小時的素材,這幾乎與我前23年的喜劇寫作一樣多。最重要的是我的健康,這個想法則排名第二位。
Tip No. 62: Look for inspiration everywhere. Paintings, music, poetry, rap, novels, nonfiction, short stories, theater, philosophy, etc. can all provide a spark for creativity. Cross-pollinate your work with broad influences and watch your creativity grow.
在各處尋找靈感。繪畫、音樂、詩歌、饒舌、小說、非小說、短篇故事、戲劇、哲學..等,都可以為創造力提供火花。以廣泛的影響力對你的工作進行異花授粉(原文:cross pollination,藉由風或昆蟲從別的花獲得繁衍的花粉),並觀察你的創造力增長。
Tip No. 63: Write it all down while the coffee is still telling you you’re mighty. Reread after you’ve turned back into Dr. Banner (yes he’s a genius, but not as self-confident in that condition). That buzz is so valuable but needs editing.
在咖啡發揮效果告訴你”你超棒”的時期,把所有想法寫下來。當你回復成原本的自我 (原文: Dr. Banner,也就是尚未變身成綠巨人浩克的班納博士,是個缺乏自信的天才)時,重讀一次剛才的寫作。思緒激昂(原文:buzz,也有微醺、很鏘的意思)很珍貴,但需要編輯。
GARY'S FAVORITES
Gary(原作者)的最愛
Tip No. 90: After a Good Set, Brainstorm
You just had a great set. Instead of celebrating, use that hour or so after when the synapses are still firing and your confidence is soaring to voice record or write down the ideas that pop up during that especially fertile creative time.
如果你剛完成一場精采的表演,不用太早慶祝,要在大腦突觸仍在觸發、信心爆發、靈感特別豐腴的創作時間裡,把突然出現的想法錄音或寫下,再多花一個小時左右的時間繼續創作吧。
Gary’s thoughts on Tip No. 90: Huge help in making jokes that work longer and coming up with tangents and inspired ideas.
Gary對此建議的想法: 這建議在創作笑話的過程中提供巨大幫助,並提供變化和啟發性的想法。
Tip No. 92: Notice where you do your best thinking. The shower? Running? Listening to music? Not listening to music? Driving? Walking? Make sure to put yourself in the places where you’re doing your best thinking as frequently as possible.
你有注意過你在哪個’場景最能好好思考嗎。沐浴時?跑步時?聽音樂時?不聽音樂時?開車時?走路時?請盡量把自己放在最適合思考的場域。
Tip No. 132: I think you can limit frustration and discouragement by writing just a page on a new premise before trying it out onstage. See if there’s anything there before you spend a day on a new joke. But if you’re truly excited by the new idea, keep going!
我認為你可以在上台試笑話之前,先寫一頁的新前提,這可以限制你的挫敗感和沮喪感。在你花一整天開發新笑話之前,先研究前提是否可挖掘。但是,如果你真心對這個新點子感到興奮,那就放手去做吧!
Tip No. 143: Listen to strangers’ conversations. (I tell myself it’s not impolite if they’re being super-loud.) I got “How Dottie is that?” when a supercilious woman named Jodi bragged “How Jodi is that?” “So Jodi,” her friend replied.
偷聽陌生人的對談(我都告訴自己偷聽並不是沒禮貌的行徑,是他們講話太大聲了)。我有一次聽到一個名叫Jodi的膚淺女人吹噓"How Jodi is that?",她朋友回覆:"So Jodi",我因此想出了我的 “How Dottie is that?” 笑話。
Tip No. 157: Need new joke ideas? Be sensitive. If you’re uncomfortable with that word, use “irritable” (or grow up). A lot of good comedy comes from reaction to injustice or discomfort large and small, which requires being hypersensitive to those feelings.
需要新的笑話創意嗎?保持敏感。如果你對這個詞不滿意,請使用“煩躁”(或成長)。 許多優秀喜劇源自於對不平等或不適的大大小小的反應,產生這些感覺都需要保持敏感。
Tip No. 217: “All art is autobiographical. The pearl is the oyster’s autobiography.” — Federico Fellini. Purposefully mine your personal history for your act. Your life is a wellspring. Dig deep.
Federico Fellini說過:“所有藝術都是自傳。珍珠是牡蠣的自傳。”有目的得挖掘你的個人經歷,以作為你的演出。你的生活是靈感之源。請深入挖掘。
Tip No. 241: Many of your favorite writers include the same themes/subjects/objects/interests repeatedly in their work. Don’t be afraid to return again and again to your passions and obsessions to explore and expound.
你最愛的許多作家,都會在他們的作品裡重複探討相同的主題/目標/對象/興趣。不要害怕在你的熱情和沉迷之處,一次又一次得重複探索和闡述。
Tip No. 285: Explore unusual angles in a joke. Example: Examine things from the POV of a child or an Expert. My man Jimmy P and I still laugh over his “Martian response to high school football practice: Why are the hard-heads (players) taking orders from the small soft-heads (coach)?”
在笑話中探索不尋常的觀點。例如:從孩子或專家的視角觀看事物。我和我的兄弟Jimmy P仍會為他的笑話大笑:“火星人對高中足球訓練的反應:為什麼硬頭(球員)會從小型軟頭(教練)那裡得到命令?”
Tip No. 297: One of the miracles of comedy is that you can get redemption for suffering, small and large, by making something funny with it. When you are ready, try to write something funny about your mistakes, setbacks, or even tragedies.
喜劇的奇蹟之一是,藉由使事情變得有趣,你可以從大大小小的苦難中得到救贖。 當你準備就緒時,請嘗試寫一些有關你的錯誤、挫折甚至悲劇的有趣訊息。
Tip No. 298: Skim your life for the unusual events and activities that you can’t believe you were a part of or that people can’t believe you were a part of. Then write about it! Back row No. 93 MULLET:
No. 93後衛MULLET: “瀏覽你一生經歷過的、你或別人不敢相信你參與其中的奇特事件和活動。然後把它寫下來吧!“
Tip No. 310: When it comes to solving the puzzles that are our jokes, draw on every area of knowledge, expertise, and talent. It’s so gratifying to use a fact, a lesson, or a memory from elementary school, high school, or elsewhere to fill in the joke.
在解決我們玩笑的難關時,請利用各個領域的常識、專業知識和才能。用小學、高中或其他地方的事實、課業或回憶來充實笑話,會非常令人滿足。
Tip No. 311: Some of your best ideas will come to you in the shower. There’s science behind why it happens. Get a shower notepad if you have trouble remembering your ideas. Don’t listen to music. Listen to your thoughts. Ruminate on tonight’s set or a new joke.
洗澡時,你可能想到一些最好的點子。這現象的發生原因有科學依據。如果你難以記住自己的想法,請準備淋浴記事本。不要聽音樂。聽你的想法。用今晚的場景或一個新的笑話來反思。
Tip No. 313: Try teaching or informing the audience about something through some of your jokes. We love to learn while being entertained and vice versa. You have knowledge? Put it in your act! Just make sure it’s funny.
試試看通過講笑話來教導或告知聽眾新知識吧。我們喜歡在娛樂的同時學習,反之亦然。你有新知識嗎?把它放在你的演出!只要確保它很有趣就行。
Tip No. 327: Going home for Thanksgiving? Take copious notes! Your family is unique. Being reminded of the dynamics and adding new memories will be great resources for your act. “Family isn’t a word. It’s a sentence.”
逢年過節你會回家和家人團聚嗎?做大量筆記!你的家人是獨一無二的。記住動態場景並添加新的記憶,這會是你表演的寶貴資源。“家庭不是一個詞。 而是一個句子。”
Tip No. 331: There are great stories from our lives that we’re not able to translate into stand-up. Don’t throw them out. Collect those stories in a file for radio and TV and other interview situations.
我們生活中有許多很棒的故事,但我們無法將其轉化為脫口秀。可是不要把它們丟掉。要將這些故事收集在資料夾裡,以後在進行廣播和電視或採訪時可能用的到。
Tip No. 340: Volunteer! Especially if you don’t have a day job. There are so many opportunities to help. You will do good and have something new to write about. In NYC we have New York Cares. One year we decorated an elementary school for Halloween.
如果你沒有正職工作,當志工吧!你會有很多機會能幫助別人。你會做得很好,並有新的事情能寫。在紐約,我們設有紐約關懷中心。今年我們為萬聖節裝飾了一所小學。
Tip No. 358: I have recently started audio recording all notes sessions (for projects), and next time I pitch jokes with a friend I will record that too. It’s very helpful. You will be surprised at what you forgot when you listen back. Ask permission first.
我最近開始錄製所有筆記會話(用於專案)的錄音檔,並且下次我與朋友開玩笑時,我也會錄音。這非常有幫助。當你回聽時,你會驚訝於你忘記了什麼。但錄音前請先徵得許可。
Tip No. 360: Spending holidays with kids? Pay attention to them. Listen to them. Take note and embrace their curiosity and enthusiasm within your writing. (Also avoid the “kids these days” writing. It’s lazy.) Merry Christmas from your second favorite long-haired Jew.
和孩子一起度假嗎?注意觀察他們。聽他們說話。寫下你觀察到的東西並注意,並在寫作中懷抱孩子們的好奇心和熱情。(不要流水帳的寫“現在的小屁孩都如何如何”。這很懶。)你第二喜歡的長髮猶太叔叔在此祝你聖誕快樂(註,原作Gary是猶太人)。
how are you doing recently意思 在 玳瑚師父 Master Dai Hu Facebook 的最佳解答
(English writing below)
燈光玄理知多少,玳瑚師父是知曉,萬金難買的歌謠,富含發達的富苗。吾這陣子所寫的短文,宛如一首首含藏著,入世與出世,福喜旺達的歌謡。妳你若用心觀讀,生活無懮亦無愁。
勘輿師是必需要懂得,看出人及房屋的氣勢的。在超過一個成年人的,相宅歲月裡,吾赫然發覺,地,人,屋,原是息息相關的。吾也赫然發覺,貧窮孤苦的人家,她他們的屋宅裡外,都有著貧窮孤苦的,山水樹木花草,及秋天凋零之休相。有這類的休相,當然就休想,否極變泰來了。
那有化解之法嗎?學地理本來就是除後患也。當然,學藝要在精。短文的開頭吾已寫到,萬金難買的歌謡,就不知有人感興趣否?似乎沒有回音哦!不好意思,不好意思,還以爲正在做直播。怎麼搞的,堂堂玳瑚師父,怎可受外界影響。一笑。妳你若有以上之困境,那就請妳你,速速來個亮燈儀式吧!儀式過後,就永遠把妳你家宅,天天燈火通明。這是一個萬金難買的貧窮解葯,不費吹灰之力即可成辦,妳你若連這也不去行,那就是命定貧窮直到老。阿彌陀佛。
.....................
How much of the profound theory of lighting do you know? Master Dai Hu knows, and it cannot be bought even with ten thousand taels of gold, for it is the seedling to greater wealth. The short posts I have been writing recently are like songs that contain ways to achieve prosperity and happiness in your secular and transmundane aspirations. If you read them with your full attention, you will live a life free from worry and troubles.
A geomancy Master must be able to tell the external characteristics of a person and a house. In my years of Feng Shui audit experience, which is more than the age of a young adult, I shockingly discover that a person and a house are closed related. I also realise that in the external environment of the house belonging to a poor and lonely family, there will also be poor and lonesome mountains, water, flora and fauna, and withering autumn sights. With such external views, one should not dream to turn things around.
Is there any way to resolve it? We learn geography with the purpose of removing potential future trouble. Of course, there must be mastery in the first place. In the start of this post, I wrote of this song that cannot be bought with ten thousand taels. I wonder if anyone is interested? Hello? Seems like there is no response! Opps, sorry, sorry, I thought I was doing a Live. Oh dear, how can Master Dai Hu get affected by external influence? *laughs*
If you have the troubles I wrote above, then hurry do a Light-up Ceremony! After the ceremony, remember to keep your house bright with the lights on every night. This is the antidote to poverty, which is hard to buy even with 10,000 taels of gold, and it is effortless to implement. If you cannot even perform this, then you are really destined to be stricken with poverty till your old age. Amitabha.
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