關於 just a little bit意思 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻
美國聯準會（Fed）在美東時間22日下午2時（台灣23日凌晨2時）宣布利率維持在趨近零的水準，但暗示升息可能會比預期來得快一些，同時也大幅下修今年的經濟展望。

https://udn.com/news/story/6811/5764746

🌻Adobe(ADBE)電話會議內容讀後感

ADBE前兩天發表財報了.

這次ADBE在財報後下跌, 主要是兩個原因(如下). 不過個人覺得是瑕不掩瑜:
1. 因為之前已經漲了不少(投資人期望太高)
2. 因為Digital Marketing這部分的業務受到季節性的影響, 所以表現不是很突出(沒有比預期高出很多)
a. net new Digital Media ARR (3% beat vs guide, vs 15% beat in 2Q21 vs 35% beat in 3Q20).
b. 有分析師在問(“Maybe just -- can we double-click on the seasonality commentary in the quarter? Because if we look at the beat versus guidance on net new digital media ARR, it looks, at the same time you had the weakest beat, but then the strongest guide in the last three years, which kind of speaks to and confirm some of those seasonality comments that you made.)
i. 高層對此的回答是, 主要是疫情後, 加上正值夏季, 大家的日子回復到正常&放假外出, 所以這部分的業務有受到影響(I think going into the quarter, we had expected that the consumer with a little bit more return to normalcy as what's happening in the environment.)
ii. 高層又說了一些話, 不過重點就是他不認為這是甚麼大事”So, net-net, I would say that the growth prospects for that particular business and the growth drivers remain intact. But again, very much in line. And this is what we feel good about the insights that we're getting on the business.”
iii. 也提到, Q4通常會是digital marketing業務的旺季(表現會不俗的意思)

另外, 覺得這次令我印象深刻的是, 當高層與分析師提到這些事情:
• 常在一些公司的電話會議中提到omnichannel這個字(疫情後, 更明顯了). 這次高層也有提到. ADBE可說是omnichannel概念股:
o “I mean, a big part of that is more and more companies are thirdly doing the multi-channel omnichannel, whatever they want to call it. And I think that's only going to continue to be a driver of our Digital Experience Solutions. Because today that stable stakes and so we just look at it and say whether you're shopping in-store over they are shopping online. You need a solution that treats you like a customer that we know of.”
• 網路上影片(video)的興起, 以及串流影音, 有提高了Adobe的營收天花板(用句分析師的術語, 就是TAM (total addressable market) expansion.
• 當使用者製作了越來越多的內容, 內容管理(content management)的能力就越顯重要, 內容上的流程管理(workflow)也越顯重要. Adobe的產品能夠幫內容製作者解決這樣的問題.
• 而Adobe各產品間的相容性, 標準化, 整合能力, 是它的競爭優勢之一:
o And one of the things we did really well is what we called our named user deployment and how, you know, when we have these enterprise licensing agreements, we offer enterprises the ability to download and distribute within the companies. And the more we do training and evangelism of the products, that leads to adoption. So, I would say there's an element of standardization, there's an element of more content.

而最近ADBE有個新聞, 引起了我的注意, 就是它即將在自己的平台上, 提供付款服務(payment service). 根據之前研究SHOP的經驗, 這有可能會對股價造成一定的漲幅:
On Sept. 15, Adobe announced that it will add payment services to its e-commerce platform this year to help merchants accept credit cards and other ways of paying. The move will deepen Adobe's rivalry with e-commerce firm Shopify (SHOP).
For the service, Adobe has partnered with PayPal (PYPL), which will process a variety of payment types, including credit and debit cards as well as PayPal's own payment and buy-now-pay-later offerings.
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/adbe-stock-adobe-beats-fiscal-q3-targets/

接下來該怎麼辦? 對於基本面良好的公司如ADBE, 我能說的就是buy the dip(逢低買進)了. 供參.

🌻The Facebook Files
一個星期前, WSJ上面有個關於FB的大篇幅調查報導. 有興趣的可以看看.
The Facebook Files
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039

這篇文章挺長, 也沒有看到華爾街中文版本的完整翻譯, 不過可以看看這篇:
https://on.wsj.com/2ZmFimp

"《華爾街日報》的相關調查顯示，這家社交媒體巨頭心知肚明，其平台會傷害用戶，而且是以該公司常常完全了解的方式造成傷害。目前，全球近半數人口都是Facebook旗下平台的用戶。其中一些證據尤其令人不安：據《華爾街日報》報導，Facebook的內部研究顯示，在報告稱有過自殺念頭的青少年中當中，有13%的英國用戶和6%的美國用戶把這種念頭歸結於Instagram。"

另一篇相關新聞:
https://www.thenewslens.com/article/156683

"《華爾街日報》於13日揭露Facebook的XCheck系統，也就是內部系統中的VIP名單，數百萬名人、政治人物與記者等知名公眾人物都在特別的一份「白名單」之內。"

"這些「貴賓」在社群上發布的內容可以躲過一般的審查系統，即使發布明顯的不當內容，也不會立即被刪除。《衛報》報導，Facebook的獨立監督委員會表示，在閱讀該篇報導後，決定要審查XCheck系統，並要求Facebook對其進行報告與解釋。"

🌻我喜歡的Apple TV影集, "Ted Lasso", 是這次艾美獎的大贏家, 很多主要演員都得獎了.

很高興這兩年, 因為有這部戲的陪伴, 讓我撐過了疫情, 家人離世, 以及一些烏煙瘴氣的事情.

前幾天看演員的得獎影片, 一位娛樂記者問得獎的男配角(也是編劇之一)說, 你覺得這部片的核心思想是甚麼. 他說, be curious, not judgemental.

就像得獎的女演員在劇中一開始是很鴨霸很壞心的球隊主人, 但這樣做是因為被前夫傷透了心, 所以想要弄垮離婚後分到的財產(也是前夫的最愛--球隊); 外表看起來永遠陽光燦爛做啦啦隊的男主角, 在青少年時父親自殺, 造成了他心裡永遠的痛&障礙(讓他在球賽時, 會有突發恐懼症).

我們每個人其實都有很多面, 很多個故事. 尤其在社群, 大家都是萍水相逢, 對彼此的了解都是非常片面的; 而有時候在社群裡, 看到有人會因為只看到一個面向, 就去下斷語. 這其實是人之常情很難避免, 所以我們需要常用第二層思考去提醒自己. 社群裡需要更多的同理心.

“Be curious, not judgmental” – Walt Whitman(惠特曼)(美國詩人)

Picture來源:
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/09/apples-global-hit-comedy-series-ted-lasso-sweeps-the-2021-primetime-emmy-awards-scoring-history-making-win-for-outstanding-comedy-series/

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

有小孩，又要待在家防疫時怎麼辦？！

除了平常小孩會玩的東西，像是樂高積木、畫畫、拼圖、看書等，這裡也有一些我們為了保持’’家庭和諧’’會跟Egan玩的事情，提供給你們參考囉！
Including a lot of the “normal” kid things we do like play with legos, draw, puzzles, read books, etc… here are a couple things we’ve been doing to keep busy and sane at home.

-煮飯：
小孩很喜歡假裝煮飯，也很喜歡在廚房玩，所以就真的讓他們 (在你的注意力底下) 跟你們一起下廚玩。我會讓Egan幫忙洗菜、洗水果，然後在旁邊陪我切菜、炒菜，我們也會讓他醃食材，因為鹽巴多一點點少一點點其實沒有太大的關係，所以我會真的讓Egan拿他要的調味料放進去一個大碗裡面，然後他會用手指或是湯匙來攪拌均勻，最後我們會把肉或是海鮮放進去碗裡面讓他去按摩，把他的’’特製醬料’’全部都按摩進去食材裡面。
Cooking 101.
Kids love to play in the kitchen, so I will let Egan wash all of our veggies and fruits while I do the more adult stuff like chopping and frying. We also let him marinate our meats and seafood. Since it is OK if there is a little less or more salt/pepper/spices/oil, we let him actually shake the contents into a big bowl and then mix it up with his fingers or a spoon. And then we put the meat into his mixture (you may need to help a bit) and he can massage the seasoning into our meats.

記得要提醒小孩，醃完肉的手不能碰其他的東西，也不能偷吃喔。(因為雙手已經摸過生的肉)
Note: Make sure to constantly remind them that they can’t touch anything while they’re dealing with raw meats. And definitely no taste testing yet!

煮好放上桌的時候， 也可以大聲的宣布這道菜是小孩一起幫忙做的。他們會很驕傲也會很有成就感。
Bonus: When the food is actually cooked, tell everybody that your toddler is the sous-chef and helped with the cooking. It teaches them about their contributions and small achievements.

-喝咖啡，很多很多咖啡：
喔！不好意思，這個不是要跟小孩做的，這個是維持大人理智用的，避免我們瘋掉。
Drink coffee. Lots and lots of coffee.
Oh sorry - that’s not something to do with the kids. That’s just for the parents to keep our sanity.

Hello everyone, I know it's been a while. I just thought I would put together some of my old Taiwan clips on my hard drive and try to make something to help everyone relax, a little like an ASMR video. No deep meaning or profound points made, just a chill out video. It was fun to play with a bit of animation. How is Taiwan now? I hope everyone is staying at home and not getting infected! I am preparing some new Line stickers. The bird character that you saw in the video will feature and so will the Taiwan monkey. I may make some short animations about things that happened to me in Taiwan if you you would like know about my life when I was living there, leave some question in the comments section. Remember to Dream Lucid!

大家好， 我知道清醒夢好久沒有po影片，最近很多事在忙。
你們好嗎？希望大家都平安健康、沒有得到肺炎。
這個影片只是要讓人放鬆，沒有什麼太深的意思，也沒有什麼重點，單純就是一個FU而已。
我之後可能會用動畫的方式做一些我在台灣發生過的事，你會對怎麼樣的主題有興趣呢？記得留言！

休息是暫時的，但我也不確定什麼時候會回來。

Dr34mlucid Links:
清醒夢連結：

▶ Patreon：https://www.patreon.com/dr34mlucid
▶ Paypal是一次性的，連結在此：https://www.paypal.me/dr34mlucid
▶ FB: https://www.facebook.com/dr34mlucid
▶ IG: dr34mlucid

#dr34mlucid #asmr #taiwan

不只是回台灣之後手機不見了這個問題，最近要上傳影片的時候這支甚至讓我整個電腦壞掉！好不容易終於，過了快半年之後，上傳成功 T-T 不好意思讓你久等了

雖然聖誕節已經過了，但世界上現在這麼多不高興的事，看一點開心一點的也不錯吧

看一下腳腳的作品！Check out Michelle's work!
Instagram @happyfeetmakeup

It wasn't just losing my phone that caused me issues for this video, when I got this edited it even broke my computer =_= Finally, after half a year, I got it to upload. Thanks for waiting

Although Christmas is long over, with all the negativity in the world right now, hope you can escape for a bit and watch something a little happier.

------------------------------
【影片後製】
📷攝影師：我
🎬剪輯師：我

--------------------------------------

⭐合作信箱聯繫➔tristan@capsuleinc.cc⭐

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每週三更新影片

更多影片：
🔍️【主題影片 Topic Videos】
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLca1AlwOy10qKDW41YTdovvEFUPGyOGwd

🔍️【VLOGS！】
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLca1AlwOy10ofPUY3Iu7VQRh_HJL_mQUE

🔍️【Music 音樂 ♫♬】
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLca1AlwOy10o-paLGvYApojmyLtusmPCw

-----------------------------------

【崔璀璨 Tristan H.】
YouTube頻道➔ http://www.youtube.com/yakitorisutan
Facebook粉專➔ https://www.facebook.com/yakitorisutan
Instagram主頁➔ https://www.instagram.com/yakitorisutan/

------------------------------

Jingle Bells 7 by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Artist: http://incompetech.com/

Deck the Halls B by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100368
Artist: http://incompetech.com/

Hip Hop Christmas by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Artist: http://www.twinmusicom.org/

Dancing Santa green screen from FullTiltOn (YTC)

Hello! Learn Japanese for free with Nihongonomori!

This is JLPT N1　文字語彙　Final test series.
Noriko teacher gonnna teach.

Part２

⑦こんな（　　）な話は, 慎重に扱わなくてはならない.
1　ソフト　2　デリケート　3ルーズ　4ロマンチック

⑧基本（　　）に従って行動してください。
1 起源　2 願書　3 規律　4 原則

⑨健康（　　　）のために、柔道というスポーツを始めた。
1 維持　2保管　　3抑制　4整理

⑩日本は地域（　）に異なる文化がある
1　ずつ　2つき　3あたり　4ごと

⑪レポート作成に思ったより時間がかかり、提出時間に(　　)間に合った。
1　ぎりぎり　2きっちり　3きっかり　4ぴったり

⑫誰が反対しようが、最後まで自分の意思を（　　）。
1貫いいたい　2刺し通したい　3終始したい　4徹したい

⑬数学は（　）生活で役立つのか
1本　2当　3真　4実

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