這是前文的中文版：
我的看法:
a.我臆測英國脫歐的心理效應也是最近歐元強勢的原因之一。企業或百姓對風險承擔意願小的，可能會先放棄英鎊以待觀望。
b. 歐元多數國家被迫遵守統一的貨幣政策，但卻忽略各個國家本身有不同的侷限條件，可能造成富者更富、窮者更窮。而我認為這樣的現象會導致更多的社會不安定和犯罪，在一些極端狀況下，我猜搞不好德國會想脫離歐盟，到時就真的是對歐盟一記重創。
畢竟歐盟需要德國，但反之並不亦然。
分享文章的二個值得注意的重點:
1. The strong euro puts exports to its main outside trading partners — the United States (20.8 percent of exports in 2016) and China (9.7 percent) — at risk. Despite the ECB’s extreme monetary policy and a euro trading almost at parity with the dollar, exports to non-EU countries have stalled since 2013. GDP growth estimates for 2018 are falling due to a lower contribution of net exports.
2. If the euro continues to strengthen, the EU economic recovery is at risk. So the eurozone is stuck between a rock and a hard place. It cannot stop the stimulus because deficit spending governments cannot live with higher financing costs, and increasing the stimulus to weaken the currency simply doesn’t work anymore.
https://mises.org/lib…/why-euro-still-gaining-against-dollar
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