【這陷阱~這陷阱~這陷阱~偏我遇上🎵 】
「我一早就估到啦!」、「同我預計一樣!」大家有無試過喺形勢未明下憑直覺都可以估中結果?
小心,你可能已經墜入一種心理陷阱 ─「過度自信偏誤」(Overconfidence Bias)!呢種偏誤令我哋會不自覺作出無科學根據嘅估算,即使預測同結果毫無關連,仍覺得自己係「獨具慧眼」估中結果。
喺投資上,如果帶住呢種偏誤一味深信自己嘅眼光同埋諗住食住個勢贏落去嘅⼼態,盲目追求短線回報,因而罔顧風險警示,隨時得不償失。
其實我哋管理MPF都要好好計劃同部署,唔應該盲⽬捕捉⼤市短期嘅走勢,而係利用複息效應作長線投資,透過時間將投資滾存增值先至啱!
#滾續達人 #過度自信偏誤 #自我感覺良好 #太自信未必係好事
同時也有4部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過244萬的網紅メンタリスト DaiGo,也在其Youtube影片中提到,⭕️今なら20日間無料⭕️ 知識のNetflixを目指して作った動画配信サービス 【Dラボ】はこちらから→https://daigovideolab.jp/ ※クレジットカードなくても登録できます 💰DaiGoの本がどれでも1冊無料で聞けます💰 究極のマインドフルネスhttps://amzn.t...
overconfidence 在 傅麗玲 Cindy Po Facebook 的精選貼文
感恩所有报馆的报道 🙏
谢谢 💓 丽玲姐姐爱你们 🥳
抗疫时期应有✅的理财💰知识
谢谢南洋商报 💓 南洋商报 Nanyang Siang Pau
https://www.enanyang.my/北马/槟财务规划委员会-711联办中文理财论坛
谢谢中国报 💓 China Press (中國報)
http://penang.chinapress.com.my/20210630/%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E4%B8%8B%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E8%AE%BA%E5%9D%9B-711%E7%BA%BF%E4%B8%8A%E7%BA%A6%E5%AE%9A%E6%82%A8/
谢谢 光华报 💓 光华日报 Kwong Wah Yit Poh
https://www.kwongwah.com.my/20210630/%E6%8A%97%E7%96%AB%E6%97%B6%E6%9C%9F%E5%BA%94%E6%9C%89%E7%9A%84%E7%90%86%E8%B4%A2%E7%9F%A5%E8%AF%86%E8%AE%BA%E5%9D%9B%E7%BA%A6%E5%AE%9A%E6%82%A8%EF%BC%81/
谢谢光明日报 💓 Guangming Daily-光明日报
https://guangming.com.my/%e6%aa%b3%e8%8f%af%e9%9d%92%e5%9c%98%e7%90%86%e8%b2%a1%e8%ab%96%e5%a3%87-%e8%ab%96%e7%96%ab%e6%9c%9f%e7%90%86%e8%b2%a1%e5%8e%9f%e5%89%87%e7%9f%a5%e8%ad%98
谢谢 💓
https://cforum.cari.com.my/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4284590&extra=
谢谢 💓
https://hotlah.cari.com.my/portal.php?mod=view&aid=154665
谢谢 星州日报 💓
https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2511737.html
谢谢 💓 南洋商报 - 北马区
https://www.enanyang.my/北马/不仅储蓄-投资也是理财
谢谢 💓 The Star The Star
https://www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2021/07/15/pandemic-driven-financial-habits
Facing financial problems during the fighting periods against the pandemic
Dr Tan Chuan Hong: Welcome to free registration for attending 711 Mandarin Personal Financial Planning Forum.
The Chairman of the Malaysian Financial Planning Council Penang Chapter, Dr. Tan Chuan Hong urged the public to register to join the forum which will be held on July 11 (Sunday) at 2:30 pm. The forum “Knowledge, Attitude and Implementation of Personal Financial Planning during the Fighting Period against the Pandemic" is organised by Penang Chinese Town Hall Youth together with live broadcaster "Ling Listening to Your Heart".
He said that during the fighting period of more than a year against the pandemic, many people are facing financial pressures and suffering from mental illnesses such as depression, and there is a gradual increase in them.
Dr Tan Chuan Hong said that beside public hope that the government can give more assistance and revitalization packages to assist them, the council also hopes to provide more correct and positive financial management knowledge through this Personal Financial Planning forum. So that, the public can have a broader and long-term vision to deal with their own financial problems, whether it is to increase income and reduce expenditure, relieve debt pressure, prudent and smart investment or asset allocation and other arrangements as well as have a better understanding and wise decision-making.
"In terms of financial management attitude, we should handle financial crisis more carefully, and at the same time avoid overconfidence and fluke mentality to seek for opportunities of rapid gaining investment.”
Dr Tan Chuan Hong hopes that through this Personal Financial Planning forum, people can have a more rational attitude and strive to reduce emotional consumption when implementing their own money and avoid falling into investment scams with smarter financial management.
In addition, Penang Chinese Town Hall Youth YouTalk Online Bureau Chief said that the online live broadcast sharing session planned by Penang Chinese Town Hall Youth will mainly discuss about public welfare content related to citizens' awareness.
This is the sixth event which was also co-organized by the Penang Chapter of MFPC collaborated with famous artist Cindy Po 傅丽玲 ; and an interview will be carried out among Deputy President of Malaysian Financial Plaining Council Dr Chong Kok Fei who is also a Financial Education Manager of AKPK together with Chairman of MFPC Penang Chapter and Certified MFPC Trainer Dr Tan Chuan Hong.
Those who are interested in participating in this online Personal Financial Planning online forum can register for free (for the public) https://1st.mfpc.org.my/PublicEventRegistration/280, and (for MFPC members) through https://1st.mfpc .org.my and will get 2 CPDs points.
overconfidence 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最佳貼文
🌻年報導讀
之前提過, 本來想秋天來做這樣的導讀, 但台灣疫情太嚴重, 這個時候做, 或許比較好, 這樣有興趣的人可以利用在家的時間來學習, 也可以轉移對疫情的注意力.
美國上市公司的年報資訊很透明. 通常看完一份年報, 就能掌握八成的公司狀態了. 公司給的官方資訊也比網路上的優質&有系統.
這次會以一家成長型公司的年報為主軸, 其他公司的為輔, 來帶大家看年報, 並分享自己是如何抓公司的營運重點. 屆時也會有有看年報經驗的股友一起做分享.
(By the way, 我說的年報導讀, 是說看10-K(以下以PINS為例). 主要是知道公司的業務, 還有該注意的營運關鍵數字:
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001506293/0c811ec8-0109-4e9a-8f81-974b15595671.pdf
Anyway. 只是想先溝通一下會比較好. 要參加的人, 也比較有心理準備.)
年報導讀
🎯目的: 推廣看年報的好處,並藉此了解公司營運核心, 以掌握財富; 推廣疫情期間在家自學.
🎯對象: 想要了解個股基本面的美股投資人.英文能力不是問題: 可透過這次的導讀, 讓您之後找中文資料時, 能夠進入狀況. 或是之後可利用Google Translator來做輔助.
🎯時間: 台灣時間本周日(06/06)早上10點. 美國的朋友也歡迎(美東時間周六晚上10點, 美西時間晚上7點). 計畫1~1個半小時.
🎯進行方式 : Zoom (抱歉我不會露臉😅)
請用這連結加入會議: https://www.zoom.us/join
Meeting ID: 490 064 3121
Meeting passcode: 4n0tRe(輸入的時候請注意大小寫. 中間那個是數字"0")
(如果屆時不方便, 我會將影片錄下來, 之後可以觀看)
🌻本周做的功課與閱讀
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_27.html
🌻曾獲諾貝爾經濟學獎的美國心理學家 Daniel Kahneman, 最近接受了Barron's的專訪, 談了一下他的新書"Noise".
https://www.barrons.com/articles/economist-daniel-kahneman-says-noise-is-wrecking-your-judgment-heres-why-and-what-to-do-about-it-51622228892
印象比較深的幾段有:
1. 討論也是會帶來所謂的噪音("in some cases, discussions can cause noise.")
-->This makes me wonder: 大家在一起討論個股時, 是否真的對自己有幫助?
一位財經名嘴的方法挺好: 他會自己先把公司的資料看過一遍後, 歸納出自己的想法. 也讓自己不受到媒體的報導所影響.
2. Overconfidence spins from the fact that we tend to latch onto one interpretation of a situation. We do not see alternatives.
過於自信其實是只看到一種情境的展現, 因為這表示自己沒有看到另外幾種情境.
3. One way to discipline your thinking is independence—making sure that if you’re consulting different people, they are independent of each other. Or if you are looking at different characteristics of an investment, that you evaluate them independently of each other.
一種讓自己思考能夠有紀律的方法是獨立--也就是在跟不同的人徵詢意見時, 這些人的思考也是要互相獨立的. 不是同溫層.
運用在投資上就是, 在考量一家公司的各種特點時, 要獨立去看這些特點.
4. 這段也寫的挺好. 可用在挑股上. 也就是, 挑股時, 不能只把眼光侷限在單一個股上. 而是要把公司拿來跟其他公司一起做比較.
Aggregate judgements wherever possible. Making judgements comparatively, rather than absolutely, is [also] a very good procedure. People are much better at saying that A is riskier than B, rather than putting an exact number on how risky A is and how risky B is. Use comparative risk and relative risk, rather than putting absolute numbers on things. Simple rules tend to be very good; people who are not governed by rules tend to be extremely noisy in their judgements. When you become conscious of the problem of noise, you become conscious of the value of rules and of discipline.
Picture: 花栗鼠(chipmunk)
overconfidence 在 メンタリスト DaiGo Youtube 的最讚貼文
⭕️今なら20日間無料⭕️
知識のNetflixを目指して作った動画配信サービス
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※クレジットカードなくても登録できます
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※Audible無料体験にて1冊無料
📚本日のオススメ
セルフ・コンパッション―あるがままの自分を受け入れる を Amazon でチェック! https://amzn.to/2x4il9P
Cheng, J. T., Anderson, C., Tenney, E. R., Brion, S., Moore, D. A., & Logg, J. M. (2020). The social transmission of overconfidence.
免責事項
この動画は、科学の面白さを伝えることを目的としたエンタメです。参考資料や過去の動画を元に大胆な独自の考察したもので、事実を確定するものではなく、あくまで一説です。動画の結論は記載された論文とは異なる場合があります。
リサーチ協力者の1人、鈴木祐さんの論文解説チャンネルはこちら→http://ch.nicovideo.jp/paleo #今なら
#Dラボとオーディオブックが概要欄から無料
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/rordjVVcsyQ/hqdefault.jpg)
overconfidence 在 Amaz Youtube 的最佳解答
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk3Y28-fGJc
#Autochess #auto #chess
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FgFJu6EcmHU/hqdefault.jpg)
overconfidence 在 Amaz Youtube 的最佳貼文
Overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer.
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Outro Song:
Pink's Glass by Audionautix is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Artist: http://audionautix.com/
Video Edited By: Fran “FrancyCakes” Kang
Graphics By: Pablo “Dusturn” Lorenzana
![post-title](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Ev4dCoyV-FA/hqdefault.jpg)
overconfidence 在 Overconfidence effect - Wikipedia 的相關結果
Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance; (2) overplacement of ... ... <看更多>
overconfidence 在 overconfidence - Yahoo奇摩字典搜尋結果 的相關結果
KK[ˋovɚˋkɑnfɪdəns]; DJ[ˋəuvəˋkɔnfidəns]. 美式. n. 自負. Dr.eye 譯典通. overconfidence. IPA[ˌəʊvəˈkɒnfɪdəns]. 英式. n. 過於自信. 牛津中文字典. overconfidence. ... <看更多>
overconfidence 在 OVERCONFIDENCE在劍橋英語詞典中的解釋及翻譯 的相關結果
6 天前 — One has been called "overconfidence bias," and is defined as mean confidence minus proportion correct (many different phenomena have been ... ... <看更多>