關於 point estimate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.

這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html

(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).

關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.

分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".

分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.

🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.

Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.

產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.

Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."

🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"

"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。

但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"

"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。

投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"

https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC

🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.

https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972

Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers

Farewell. Ida – Ida Haendel 192?-2020

So Ida has left us – a legend has departed. What a violinist! What a woman! Magnificent, unique, incorrigible – she was a law unto herself.

First, the playing: a film about her was aptly entitled: ‘I AM the Violin.’ And she was! The violin was her life; she mastered it, devoted so much of her existence to it, cared so much about it. Every performance was an event, which she took absolutely seriously, giving each concert her all. She spoke through her violin, proved herself through it, lived within the music she made. She was a marvel, an icon; each note she played was the result of total conviction – and as a consequence was totally convincing. She had been groomed from the beginning to be a star – and a star she was.

But she was also an adorable person. I had heard of her, of course, from my childhood onwards – hadn’t everybody? But I didn’t meet her until - I think - 2000, when I attended a memorable recital she gave at the Wigmore Hall (apparently her debut there!), concluding with a magisterial performance of Enescu’s 3rd sonata. I’d heard, to my delight, that she’d heard me somewhere, and had liked it, so I dared to go backstage afterwards. Having enthused about her playing, I rather uncertainly told her that I was Steven. She looked at me disbelievingly. ‘You’re NOT’ she announced, in her wonderful deep voice. I assured her that I certainly had been last time I looked in the mirror. She accepted this, and proposed that we play the Brahms Double together. It was such an honour; but alas, I just couldn’t do the dates she suggested.

I came across her shortly thereafter, however, at the Verbier Festival. I’d seen that she was giving masterclasses there, so when I saw her, I asked how they were going. She looked at me severely. ‘Steven,’ she boomed, wagging her finger. ‘I don’t teach.’ I was puzzled; she was, after all, advertised as the teacher of the violin class. ‘So you like teaching?’ I said, provoking her. The finger wagged again. ‘Steven,’ she repeated with equal seriousness, ‘I don’t teach.’ ‘So how’s the teaching going?’ I asked. Her finger was on its way in my direction, and she’d started to say my name in the same tone of voice – when suddenly her face broke into a big smile. ‘Oh – so you’re a tease,’ she said. After that, we got on famously. My other main memory of that Verbier encounter was of her examining something – I couldn’t see what - in the hotel lobby, and then calling me over. It turned out that the object in her hands was an album of recent photos of her. ‘Look, Steven,’ she commanded urgently. ‘Don’t I look gorgeous?’

Later, we took her to dinner near her flat in London. Tottering through the streets in her high heels, she suddenly came to a stop in front of a (closed) clothes shop, where either a pair of gold shoes or a gold dress (I can’t remember which) had caught her eye. It was impossible to budge her, late though we were for the restaurant. ‘Wouldn’t I look wonderful in that?’ she asked us challengingly. We agreed that she would. ‘I’m coming back here tomorrow morning,’ she assured us. She spoke that night about her appearance. ‘You think I dress like this just to go out?’ she asked. ‘No! Catch me at breakfast – I’ll look just the same.’ Her pride in her appearance was never-changing. Perhaps in someone else it could have been too much – but with Ida, it was wonderful, admirable; life-affirming, in fact, like her pride in her playing.

It is funny that already I’ve seen two obituaries giving her age five years apart. She’d certainly have preferred the younger estimate… It was impossible to get the truth out of her. I remember asking another glorious violinist-character, Lorand Fenyves, whether he knew Ida. ‘Oh yes, of course!’ he replied. ‘I knew her when I was 16 and she was 15.’ He paused. ‘And now I’m 80 and’ his eyes twinkled, ‘she’s 55!’

Although we never got to play the Brahms Double together, we did perform the Beethoven Triple concerto with Martha Argerich and the Rotterdam Philharmonic under the then little-known Yannick Nezet-Seguin in (I think) 2006. Now THAT was an experience – to put it rather mildly… Playing with those two way-larger-than-life ladies was something not to be forgotten; the two adored each other, and it was great fun to witness their interaction. Ida had only played the piece once before, as I remember; but she played it with utter conviction. And Martha was – well, Martha. And Yannick kept the whole thing together, somehow. So – it was special…

It was supposed to happen again, in Miami (where Ida lived); but alas, it didn’t. Still, I kept in touch with Ida and on one memorable occasion got to interview her at the Wigmore Hall (there’s a recording of that occasion on Youtube). She also came down to Prussia Cove once for three days, her visit culminating in a breathtaking account of the Bach Chaconne (she sported an almost equally breathtaking dress to match!) at the Hall for Cornwall. We also played and taught/didn’t teach together in 2010 at the Summit Music Festival, just outside New York. That was another unforgettable experience. At the concert that concluded the festival, Ida played virtuoso pieces with the orchestra that would have been impressive in someone thirty years younger – even younger – than she was. But equally Ida-ish was the post-concert experience. For some reason, it got very late, and it was well after midnight when we were taken in search of food. Not surprisingly, there were few options in the countryside at that time of night; but eventually we found a 24-hour diner. We went in and occupied a table. Looking around at the bikers and other rather unpredictable-looking types, I was a tad nervous; not Ida. I fortified myself with a margarita; she had tea. At one point, the conversation turned to Schumann, and his 2nd violin sonata (which at that time I didn’t know very well). I asked a question about it. ‘You want to hear how it goes?’ Ida demanded to know. She strode over to her violin-case, pulled out the violin, and to the astonishment (and then, luckily the delight) of the assembled company, began to play it. A photo taken at the time (below) shows me a little less than comfortable – and her absolutely in her element.

Oh, Ida. By the last time I spoke to her – too long ago, but not that long ago – I’d heard that she’d become very forgetful, so wasn’t quite sure whether to call her or not. But I dialled anyway, and the phone was answered. ‘Hello, Ida?” ‘Who is it?’ ‘It’s Steven – Steven Isserlis.” Silence – then the phone went dead. Oh dear. I tried again. This time I was able to hold her attention long enough to remind her who I was. We started to talk, and as the conversation progressed, she evidently remembered more and more about our friendship. It was true that she repeated herself a lot; but still – she was very much Ida, the same wonderful voice, the same love of life.

And now she’s gone. Farewell, Ida the legend; we humanoids will miss you – but thank you, thank you for giving us so much. Everything, in fact.

【商業快訊學英文】
每日十分鐘，樂勝十年功
🌧美國經濟要開始陷入衰退了嗎？🌨

🌎The Senate passed an economic stimulus package estimated at $2 trillion. The Fed chairman says the U.S. economy “may well be in a recession.”
美國參議院通過一項約兩兆美元的紓困方案，聯準會主席表示美國經濟很可能會陷入衰退。

stimulus: 刺激、促進
estimate at: 估計、估算為…
ex: He estimated the distance at about 200 meters.

🌎A record 3.28 million workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.
上週約有328萬名勞工申請失業補助，為史上最高人數。

record: 除了紀錄外，也有最高紀錄之意
unemployment benefits: 失業補助
＊小知識：有一項經濟指標名為「美國初領失業救濟金人數」，此項指標每週公佈，可反映美國就業市場狀況，順帶一提，在前幾週的申請人一直都落在二十多萬人！

🌎In the U.S., which has more than 69,000 cases, hospital capacity has crossed the tipping point in coronavirus hot spots.
在美國的確診病例數已超過69000例，在冠狀病毒的熱區之醫院負載量已經超過臨界點。

tipping point: 臨界點
tip這個字作動詞有傾倒、翻覆的意思
tipping point就是要倒掉的那個點，引申為臨界點或引爆點
hot spots: 這裡不是指網路熱點喔（誤）
hotspot這個字也可以指熱門地區、熱鬧場所
此處是指冠狀病毒案例特多的區域，如紐約

🙋‍♀️🙋🏼‍♀️🙋🏻‍♀️Quiz: The Senate _______ a _______ 2 trillion rescue bill.
A: passes, history
B: past, history
C: passed, historic

美國接下來的走向相當值得關注，世界的權力結構會
如何重新洗牌就讓我們持續看下去～
每週一至週五持續關心浩爾口筆譯-商業快訊學英文

The Golden State Warriors desperately
needed someone besides Earl Boykins to make a basket in the
fourth quarter. Gilbert Arenas obliged.

The ice-cold Arenas made a 3-pointer and running layup in the
final 90 seconds, allowing the Warriors to hold on for a 102-98
victory over the Philadelphia 76ers that kept their playoff
hopes alive.

The Warriors saw their 25-point lead cut to 87-75 entering the
fourth quarter and had no one providing any offense besides the
5-5 Boykins, who scored 10 of his 23 points in the final period.

"I've always said that the fourth quarter is the easiest quarter
in the game," said Boykins, who made 8-of-14 shots. "You don't
have nothing to look forward to. You just have to go all out,
right there. Tonight, I was able to make my shots."

The 76ers pulled within two points three times, including 97-95
with 1:40 remaining on a driving layup by Aaron McKie.

Arenas was practically the only Warrior who did not have a hand
in their blistering first half. Having missed nine of his first
10 shots, Arenas pulled the trigger on a 3-pointer that gave
Golden State a 100-95 lead with 1:26 to go.

"I caught a great look and I didn't have a great look all
night," Arenas said.

We've (Arenas and himself) been doing this all year and tonight
was no different," Boykins said. "It's just a matter of who
wants the ball, and tonight we both wanted it."

Keith Van Horn answered eight seconds later with a 3-pointer,
again making it a two-point game. Philadelphia's Eric Snow fell
out of bounds with one rebound and Boykins ran down another
before Arenas drove the left side and banked in a runner for a
102-98 lead with 17 seconds left.

"He didn't have many points tonight, but he had five really
important points in the last minute and a half of the game,"
Warriors coach Eric Musselman said. "We put the ball in his
hand on the middle pick-and-roll and he took it to the rim."

Van Horn missed two free throws and Snow missed a 3-pointer,
allowing the Warriors to improve to 2-1 on their critical
five-game road trip.

Antawn Jamison scored 26 of his 30 points in the first half for
Golden State (36-37), which remained 2 1/2 games behind Phoenix
(37-34) for the eighth and final playoff berth in the Western
Conference.

"This is a tough stretch and we have to do well in this
stretch," Jamison said. "We know we have a chance but we have
to play near perfect basketball."

Allen Iverson had 28 points and 10 assists for the Sixers, who
are 2-3 since posting a 15-2 mark coming out of the All-Star
break. They fell 1 1/2 games behind New Jersey in the race
for the Atlantic Division title.

"That's what happens when you get down (25) points," Iverson
said. "You fight and fight and get back into the game, and then
at the end of the game everything has to go perfect. It don't
work that way in this game."

The Sixers were swept in the season series by the Warriors for
the first time since the 1996-97 campaign. Philadelphia coach
Larry Brown, who picked up three technical fouls in the two
games, did not meet the media afterward.

"He's just resting up," assistant John Kuester said. "We're
going to take a trip to Atlanta. He's very disappointed. This is
a tough loss."

In the first half, Jamison and the Warriors were red-hot and
Iverson, Brown and the Sixers lost their cool.

Jamison scored 16 points in the opening period and Golden State
made nine of its last 11 shots, building a 33-24 lead. His
fast-break dunk extended the advantage to 47-32 midway through
the second quarter.

In the last five minutes of the first half, Derrick Coleman was
called for flagrant and technical fouls and Brown and Iverson
were whistled for technicals. Golden State scored four straight
easy baskets off turnovers and built its largest lead at 66-41
with 30 seconds to go.

"(At halftime, Brown) said, 'I'm not going to throw any tirade
or anything, or I could be in here for hours telling you all
what you did wrong,'" McKie said.

It was still 70-45 early in the third quarter before the Sixers
began their comeback. They turned up their defensive pressure
and relied on Iverson, who scored 12 points in the period.

Philadelphia opened the fourth quarter with a 10-2 run that
Boykins halted with two free throws. Layups by Kenny Thomas and
McKie made it 91-89 with 5:12 remaining, but Boykins answered
again, this time with a jumper and a runner that rebuilt the
lead to six points with 3:35 left.

"With Iverson having five fouls, we tried to keep it in Boykins'
hands," Musselman said. "He about 12 points in 11 minutes in
the first half and we felt that he really had his confidence
going tonight."

"He played great," Iverson said. "He showed a lot of heart for
a guy that size. That speaks for itself. The guy plays with his
heart and the ability that God gave him. Never under estimate
anyone on this level."