【純學術討論】New York Fed 最新發表嘅研究報告指,上世紀嘅流感爆發同極端民族主義情緒甚至納粹奪權有莫大關聯。
https://www.newyorkfed.org/…/resea…/staff_reports/sr921.pdf…
//We show that the deaths brought about by the influenza pandemic of 1918-1920 profoundly shaped German society going forward.
Regional variation in influenza mortality was related to subsequent city spending on various amenities for its population. Cities that saw a greater share of their population die due to influenza spend less, per-capita, going forward.
We tie in to literature on the effects of austerity by showing that lower expenditures by local municipalities affect voting for more extremist parties.
However, we also show that influenza deaths themselves had a strong effect on the share of votes won by extremists, specifically the extremist national socialist party. This effect dominates many other effects and is persistent even when we control for the influences of local unemployment, city spending, population changes brought about by the war, and local demographics or when we instrument for influenza mortality.
The same patterns were not observable for the votes won by other extremist parties, such as the communists.
Our results are striking in part because they are robust to a large battery of alternate specifications despite being based on a relatively small sample.
We argue that our results are likely the consequence of changes in societal preferences following a pandemic. In particular, the fact that the pandemic affected predominantly one part of the demographic spectrum, in this case younger people, may have altered preferences in communities. It may also have spurred resentment of foreigners among the survivors (as has happened in past pandemics), driving voters towards parties whose platform matched such sentiments.
Given a number of econometric challenges, we are cautious about the interpretation of our results. Nevertheless, the study offers a novel contribution to the discussion surrounding the long-term effects of pandemics.//
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population of new york city 在 文茜的世界周報 Sisy's World News Facebook 的精選貼文
0331紐約時報
*紐約市死亡人數已經達到914人,確診病例為38000人
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
* 紐約州死亡人數1218,星期日一天之內死亡253人,紐約州長在美國東岸星期一記者會中表示病毒最糟的時刻尚未來臨。美國海軍艦隊改造的醫療船已經抵達紐約港口。
Governor Cuomo said that 1,218 people had died in New York, up from 965 on Sunday morning.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, briefing reporters on Monday, said that the worst of the coronavirus outbreak was yet to come, even as another 253 people died in the state in a 24-hour period.
“If you wait to prepare for a storm to hit, it is too late,” the governor said. “You have to prepare before the storm hits. And in this case the storm is when you hit that high point, when you hit that apex. How do you know when you’re going to get there? You don’t.”
The governor spoke at the Javits Center, a convention hall in Manhattan that was quickly turned into a 1,000-bed emergency hospital. His remarks came shortly after a Navy hospital ship arrived in the city.
The setting for Mr. Cuomo’s briefing underscored New York’s urgent efforts to prepare its health care system for the wave of sick people that is expected to further overwhelm hospitals in just a few weeks.
Here are other developments from Monday:
New York reported almost 7,000 new cases of the virus, bringing the total to nearly 66,500. Most of the cases were in New York City, where, officials reported later on Monday, 38,087 people had been infected.
The number of virus-related deaths in New York City rose to 914 Monday afternoon, up 138 from around the same time Sunday, officials said.
Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey announced 3,347 new positive coronavirus cases in the state, bringing the total to 16,636. There were 37 new deaths, for a total of 198.
Gov. Ned Lamont of Connecticut announced 578 new coronavirus cases in the state, bringing the total to 2,571. There were two new deaths, for a total of 36 in the state.
In New York, the number of people hospitalized was 9,517, up 12 percent from yesterday. Of those, 2,352 are in ventilator-equipped intensive care rooms.
In a hopeful note, Mr. Cuomo said that while the number of hospitalizations continues to grow, the rate which it is growing was tapering off. “We had a doubling of cases every two days, then a doubling every three days and a doubling every four days, then every five,” Mr. Cuomo said. “We now have a doubling of cases every six days. So while the overall number is going up, the rate of doubling is actually down.”
More than 4,200 people have been discharged from hospitals.
New York has tested more than 186,000 people in March, about one percent of the state’s population. But while New York’s testing capacity far outpaces that of other states, it has not reached the critical-mass level public health experts say is necessary to more precisely identify the spread of the virus.
*【冠狀病毒實時更新】
*儘管很少有證據表明這種藥物能有效對抗這種病毒,但美國食品藥品監督管理局於本週末獲得了緊急批准,允許使用兩種長期使用的瘧疾藥物來治療接受冠狀病毒住院的患者。
*奧地利將從本週開始購買雜貨時,要求所有居民都戴口罩,但越來越多的專家對現行指南提出質疑,即健康人不需要戴口罩。
*世界各地的領導者都在極小的阻力下調用全面執行權。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html
*【美國護士死亡,醫生病倒,病毒前線引起恐慌】
由於冠狀病毒的人數繼續上升,醫院和醫護人員累垮,經濟受損,使更多的城市面臨致命病毒突襲,國會議員和川普政府把注意力轉向新的措施,新規劃包含後果。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-doctors-sick.html
*【“監獄是培養皿”:病毒在獄中傳播時,美國當局釋放囚犯】
冠狀病毒正在美國的監獄和監獄中迅速傳播,在那裡不可能與社會保持距離,並且廣泛禁止使用消毒劑,促使全國各地的當局在最近幾週釋放了數千名囚犯,以試圖減慢感染速度,挽救生命並保存醫療資源。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-prisons-jails.html
*【川普認為冠狀病毒測試不再是問題,但各州長們不同意】
川普總統在電話會議上告訴各州州長,“他幾週以來都沒有聽說過檢測”,這表明長期缺乏用於檢測人冠狀病毒的試劑盒不再是問題。但是州長們並沒有表示支持。有州長表示“從字面上看,如果沒有CDC的測試套件,我們將無法進行測試。”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/politics/trump-governors-coronavirus-testing.html
*【美國死亡人數超三千,考慮採取更多緊急措施】
據約翰•霍普金斯大學統計資料,全球確診患者已超過78萬,其中美國位居首位,確診數字已達16萬,死亡人數超三千。過去一天美國共新增確診病例兩萬餘,目前病死率最高的地區仍屬紐約。
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
*【福特汽車和通用電氣將生產50,000台呼吸機】
知情人士說,由於死亡人數激增,案件激增,兩家公司已緊急採取行動尋找零件,下訂單和部署工人。通常需要數週或數月才能完成的任務已在幾天之內完成。兩家公司預計將在三週內開始生產,第一批呼吸機將在四月底之前交付。https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/gm-ventilators-coronavirus-trump.html
*【加強檢測,失業和冠狀病毒計劃常見問題】
川普總統已經簽署了一項兩黨制的2兆美元經濟救濟計劃,為受冠狀病毒大流行影響的數千萬美國家庭提供援助。其組成部分包括對個人的刺激性支付,擴大的失業覆蓋面,學生貸款,不同的退休帳戶規則等等。
https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-stimulus-package-questions-answers.html
*【紐約最新】
*州長Cuomo說,紐約有1,218人死亡,高於週日早晨的965人。
*一名男子被指控對聯邦調查局幹員咳嗽,並說他感染了病毒。
“Rickers Island災難的恐懼越來越嚴重。
*紐澤西州的國民警衛隊員死於新冠病毒這是美軍首例。
*隨著病毒鬥爭的日益激烈,紐約的醫院面臨著4億美元的削減。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html
*【產業最新】
*週一華爾街股市上漲,因為投資者競購了醫療保健公司的股票,報告有助于冠狀病毒爆發的產品的進展。
標普500指數攀升超過3%,上週表現強勁。標準普爾500指數在連續三天創下自1933年以來的最高水平後,上週上漲了10%
*週一獲勝者包括強生公司,該公司表示已確定該病毒疫苗的主要候選藥物,併計劃擴大生產和臨床測試。雅培(Abbott Laboratories)揚升的報導稱,該公司已宣布一種新的檢測方法可在五分鐘內檢測到該病毒,已被食品和藥物管理局批准使用。
*在過去兩天裡,Facebook和Twitter撤下了以巴西總統Jair Bolsonaro相關的發文,此前他發布的誤導性冠狀病毒視頻。
*梅西百貨公司(Macy's)同時擁有Bloomingdale's和Bluemercury,該公司週一表示,損失了“大部分”財務,將關閉百貨公司。
*紐約總檢察長對Zoom的隱私和安全性有疑問
*Instacart購物者正在就安全問題進行罷工。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/stock-market-today-coronavirus.html
*【中國傳染病預警系統為何失靈】
SARS之後,中國建立了國家傳染病直報系統,旨在快速、全面地上報早期病例。然而,在武漢去年12月出現不明原因肺炎患者時,這個系統沒有生效。一個旨在保護醫療專業知識不受政治幹預的系統是如何屈從的?在中國的政治等級制度下,醫生理論上的確可以直接上報病例,但醫院不願也無力與地方領導人對抗。而武漢官員正是出於政治上對透露壞消息的反感,令醫院在上報系統中隱瞞了資訊。即便在北京介入之後,他們仍固步自封,使醫院束手束腳。
https://cn.nytimes.com/china/20200330/coronavirus-china/
*【中國全力生產防疫物資,但如何確保品質?】
為了抗擊全球冠狀病毒大流行,中國龐大的製造機器已經開始超速運轉,為國內外提供口罩、檢測試劑盒、呼吸面罩以及其他設備。但矛盾也逐漸顯現出來:在工廠重組生產線、新企業湧入的情況下,市場上出現了大量假冒偽劣產品。如何在鼓勵生產的同時,杜絕不良和未經認證的產品?
https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20200330/china-coronavirus-masks-tests/
*【東京夏季奧運會將於2021年7月23日開幕】
東京奧運會將延遲至2021年7月23日開幕。國際奧會和東京奧組委30日聯合宣佈,推遲後的東京奧運會將於2021年7月23日至8月8日舉行。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/sports/olympics/tokyo-olympics-date-coronavirus.html
*【病毒在以色列猶太人中激增,但許多人藐視以色列的規定】
以色列極端正統派猶太教區病毒傳播速度比其他地區快八倍,官員正在考慮封鎖整個社區,以保護更多人。專家們將病毒在該地區的迅速傳播此歸因於極端正統派猶太教徒家庭龐大、對國家權威高度不信任、宗教領袖對健康風險的無知、對電子和世俗媒體的厭惡,以及人們對以社區活動為中心的生活方式的虔誠。
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-cases-orthodox.html
population of new york city 在 黃之鋒 Joshua Wong Facebook 的最佳解答
【《金融時報》深度長訪】
今年做過數百外媒訪問,若要說最能反映我思緒和想法的訪問,必然是《金融時報》的這一個,沒有之一。
在排山倒海的訪問裡,這位記者能在短短個半小時裡,刻畫得如此傳神,值得睇。
Joshua Wong plonks himself down on a plastic stool across from me. He is there for barely 10 seconds before he leaps up to greet two former high school classmates in the lunchtime tea house melee. He says hi and bye and then bounds back. Once again I am facing the young man in a black Chinese collared shirt and tan shorts who is proving such a headache for the authorities in Beijing.
So far, it’s been a fairly standard week for Wong. On a break from a globe-trotting, pro-democracy lobbying tour, he was grabbed off the streets of Hong Kong and bundled into a minivan. After being arrested, he appeared on the front pages of the world’s newspapers and was labelled a “traitor” by China’s foreign ministry.
He is very apologetic about being late for lunch.
Little about Wong, the face of Hong Kong’s democracy movement, can be described as ordinary: neither his Nobel Peace Prize nomination, nor his three stints in prison. Five years ago, his face was plastered on the cover of Time magazine; in 2017, he was the subject of a hit Netflix documentary, Joshua: Teenager vs Superpower. And he’s only 23.
We’re sitting inside a Cantonese teahouse in the narrow back streets near Hong Kong’s parliament, where he works for a pro-democracy lawmaker. It’s one of the most socially diverse parts of the city and has been at the heart of five months of unrest, which has turned into a battle for Hong Kong’s future. A few weekends earlier I covered clashes nearby as protesters threw Molotov cocktails at police, who fired back tear gas. Drunk expats looked on, as tourists rushed by dragging suitcases.
The lunch crowd pours into the fast-food joint, milling around as staff set up collapsible tables on the pavement. Construction workers sit side-by-side with men sweating in suits, chopsticks in one hand, phones in the other. I scan the menu: instant noodles with fried egg and luncheon meat, deep fried pork chops, beef brisket with radish. Wong barely glances at it before selecting the hometown fried rice and milk tea, a Hong Kong speciality with British colonial roots, made with black tea and evaporated or condensed milk.
“I always order this,” he beams, “I love this place, it’s the only Cantonese teahouse in the area that does cheap, high-quality milk tea.” I take my cue and settle for the veggie and egg fried rice and a lemon iced tea as the man sitting on the next table reaches over to shake Wong’s hand. Another pats him on the shoulder as he brushes by to pay the bill.
Wong has been a recognisable face in this city since he was 14, when he fought against a proposal from the Hong Kong government to introduce a national education curriculum that would teach that Chinese Communist party rule was “superior” to western-style democracy. The government eventually backed down after more than 100,000 people took to the streets. Two years later, Wong rose to global prominence when he became the poster boy for the Umbrella Movement, in which tens of thousands of students occupied central Hong Kong for 79 days to demand genuine universal suffrage.
That movement ended in failure. Many of its leaders were sent to jail, among them Wong. But the seeds of activism were planted in the generation of Hong Kongers who are now back on the streets, fighting for democracy against the world’s most powerful authoritarian state. The latest turmoil was sparked by a controversial extradition bill but has evolved into demands for true suffrage and a showdown with Beijing over the future of Hong Kong. The unrest in the former British colony, which was handed over to China in 1997, represents the biggest uprising on Chinese soil since the 1989 pro-democracy movement in Beijing. Its climax, of course, was the Tiananmen Square massacre, when hundreds, perhaps thousands, of people were killed.
“We learnt a lot of lessons from the Umbrella Movement: how to deal with conflict between the more moderate and progressive camps, how to be more organic, how to be less hesitant,” says Wong. “Five years ago the pro-democracy camp was far more cautious about seeking international support because they were afraid of pissing off Beijing.”
Wong doesn’t appear to be afraid of irking China. Over the past few months, he has lobbied on behalf of the Hong Kong protesters to governments around the world. In the US, he testified before Congress and urged lawmakers to pass an act in support of the Hong Kong protesters — subsequently approved by the House of Representatives with strong bipartisan support. In Germany, he made headlines when he suggested two baby pandas in the Berlin Zoo be named “Democracy” and “Freedom.” He has been previously barred from entering Malaysia and Thailand due to pressure from Beijing, and a Singaporean social worker was recently convicted and fined for organising an event at which Wong spoke via Skype.
The food arrives almost immediately. I struggle to tell our orders apart. Two mouthfuls into my egg and cabbage fried rice, I regret not ordering the instant noodles with luncheon meat.
In August, a Hong Kong newspaper controlled by the Chinese Communist party published a photo of Julie Eadeh, an American diplomat, meeting pro-democracy student leaders including Wong. The headline accused “foreign forces” of igniting a revolution in Hong Kong. “Beijing says I was trained by the CIA and the US marines and I am a CIA agent. [I find it] quite boring because they have made up these kinds of rumours for seven years [now],” he says, ignoring his incessantly pinging phone.
Another thing that bores him? The media. Although Wong’s messaging is always on point, his appraisal of journalists in response to my questions is piercing and cheeky. “In 15-minute interviews I know journalists just need soundbites that I’ve repeated lots of times before. So I’ll say things like ‘I have no hope [as regards] the regime but I have hope towards the people.’ Then the journalists will say ‘oh that’s so impressive!’ And I’ll say ‘yes, I’m a poet.’ ”
And what about this choice of restaurant? “Well, I knew I couldn’t pick a five-star hotel, even though the Financial Times is paying and I know you can afford it,” he says grinning. “It’s better to do this kind of interview in a Hong Kong-style restaurant. This is the place that I conducted my first interview after I left prison.” Wong has spent around 120 days in prison in total, including on charges of unlawful assembly.
“My fellow prisoners would tell me about how they joined the Umbrella Movement and how they agreed with our beliefs. I think prisoners are more aware of the importance of human rights,” he says, adding that even the prison wardens would share with him how they had joined protests.
“Even the triad members in prison support democracy. They complain how the tax on cigarettes is extremely high and the tax on red wine is extremely low; it just shows how the upper-class elite lives here,” he says, as a waiter strains to hear our conversation. Wong was most recently released from jail in June, the day after the largest protests in the history of Hong Kong, when an estimated 2m people — more than a quarter of the territory’s 7.5m population — took to the streets.
Raised in a deeply religious family, he used to travel to mainland China every two years with his family and church literally to spread the gospel. As with many Hong Kong Chinese who trace their roots to the mainland, he doesn’t know where his ancestral village is. His lasting memory of his trips across the border is of dirty toilets, he tells me, mid-bite. He turned to activism when he realised praying didn’t help much.
“The gift from God is to have independence of mind and critical thinking; to have our own will and to make our own personal judgments. I don’t link my religious beliefs with my political judgments. Even Carrie Lam is Catholic,” he trails off, in a reference to Hong Kong’s leader. Lam has the lowest approval rating of any chief executive in the history of the city, thanks to her botched handling of the crisis.
I ask whether Wong’s father, who is also involved in social activism, has been a big influence. Wrong question.
“The western media loves to frame Joshua Wong joining the fight because of reading the books of Nelson Mandela or Martin Luther King or because of how my parents raised me. In reality, I joined street activism not because of anyone book I read. Why do journalists always assume anyone who strives for a better society has a role model?” He glances down at his pinging phone and draws a breath, before continuing. “Can you really describe my dad as an activist? I support LGBTQ rights,” he says, with a fist pump. His father, Roger Wong, is a well-known anti-gay rights campaigner in Hong Kong.
I notice he has put down his spoon, with half a plate of fried rice untouched. I decide it would be a good idea to redirect our conversation by bonding over phone addictions. Wong, renowned for his laser focus and determination, replies to my emails and messages at all hours and has been described by his friends as “a robot.”
He scrolls through his Gmail, his inbox filled with unread emails, showing me how he categorises interview requests with country tags. His life is almost solely dedicated to activism. “My friends and I used to go to watch movies and play laser tag but now of course we don’t have time to play any more: we face real bullets every weekend.”
The protests — which have seen more than 3,300 people arrested — have been largely leaderless. “Do you ever question your relevance to the movement?” I venture, mid-spoonful of congealed fried rice.
“Never,” he replies with his mouth full. “We have a lot of facilitators in this movement and I’m one of them . . . it’s just like Wikipedia. You don’t know who the contributors are behind a Wikipedia page but you know there’s a lot of collaboration and crowdsourcing. Instead of just having a top-down command, we now have a bottom-up command hub which has allowed the movement to last far longer than Umbrella.
“With greater power comes greater responsibility, so the question is how, through my role, can I express the voices of the frontliners, of the street activism? For example, I defended the action of storming into the Legislative Council on July 1. I know I didn’t storm in myself . . . ” His phone pings twice. Finally he succumbs.
After tapping away for about 30 seconds, Wong launches back into our conversation, sounding genuinely sorry that he wasn’t there on the night when protesters destroyed symbols of the Chinese Communist party and briefly occupied the chamber.
“My job is to be the middleman to express, evaluate and reveal what is going on in the Hong Kong protests when the movement is about being faceless,” he says, adding that his Twitter storm of 29 tweets explaining the July 1 occupation reached at least four million people. I admit that I am overcome with exhaustion just scanning his Twitter account, which has more than 400,000 followers. “Well, that thread was actually written by Jeffrey Ngo from Demosisto,” he say, referring to the political activism group that he heads.
A network of Hong Kong activists studying abroad helps fuel his relentless public persona on social media and in the opinion pages of international newspapers. Within a week of his most recent arrest, he had published op-eds in The Economist, The New York Times, Quartz and the Apple Daily.
I wonder out loud if he ever feels overwhelmed at taking on the Chinese Communist party, a task daunting even for some of the world’s most formidable governments and companies. He peers at me over his wire-framed glasses. “It’s our responsibility; if we don’t do it, who will? At least we are not in Xinjiang or Tibet; we are in Hong Kong,” he says, referring to two regions on Chinese soil on the frontline of Beijing’s drive to develop a high-tech surveillance state. In Xinjiang, at least one million people are being held in internment camps. “Even though we’re directly under the rule of Beijing, we have a layer of protection because we’re recognised as a global city so [Beijing] is more hesitant to act.”
I hear the sound of the wok firing up in the kitchen and ask him the question on everyone’s minds in Hong Kong: what happens next? Like many people who are closely following the extraordinary situation in Hong Kong, he is hesitant to make firm predictions.
“Lots of think-tanks around the world say ‘Oh, we’re China experts. We’re born in western countries but we know how to read Chinese so we’re familiar with Chinese politics.’ They predicted the Communist party would collapse after the Tiananmen Square massacre and they’ve kept predicting this over the past three decades but hey, now it’s 2019 and we’re still under the rule of Beijing, ha ha,” he grins.
While we are prophesying, does Wong ever think he might become chief executive one day? “No local journalist in Hong Kong would really ask this question,” he admonishes. As our lunch has progressed, he has become bolder in dissecting my interview technique. The territory’s chief executive is currently selected by a group of 1,200, mostly Beijing loyalists, and he doubts the Chinese Communist party would ever allow him to run. A few weeks after we meet he announces his candidacy in the upcoming district council elections. He was eventually the only candidate disqualified from running — an order that, after our lunch, he tweeted had come from Beijing and was “clearly politically driven”.
We turn to the more ordinary stuff of 23-year-olds’ lives, as Wong slurps the remainder of his milk tea. “Before being jailed, the thing I was most worried about was that I wouldn’t be able to watch Avengers: Endgame,” he says.
“Luckily, it came out around early May so I watched it two weeks before I was locked up in prison.” He has already quoted Spider-Man twice during our lunch. I am unsurprised when Wong picks him as his favourite character.
“I think he’s more . . . ” He pauses, one of the few times in the interview. “Compared to having an unlimited superpower or unlimited power or unlimited talent just like Superman, I think Spider-Man is more human.” With that, our friendly neighbourhood activist dashes off to his next interview.
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Get over 65% off the Kove Commuter 2 Split here: http://koveaudio.com/xm68 (code XM68). Last month my Indonesian friend Abe challenged me to learn Indonesian in three weeks and then go to NYC’s very own Indonesian Food Bazaar market for me to practice my Indonesian. I took him up on this challenge and it was an epic social experiment! We also went around ordering in Indonesian restaurants in Elmhurst, Queens which has a large Indonesian population in New York City. I definitely do not actually speak fluently but I’m able to have a real conversation in Indonesian after just 15 hours of studying, which is pretty cool!
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Ever wondered how is it like to live in Singapore? In this video, we'll show you how local Singaporeans buy their food stuff from a typical housing estate.
Many people around the world may have heard of Singapore. Yes, we're the mini country that hosted Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in the same breadth. Just to give you a better perspective, United States is about 13,673 times bigger than Singapore or about half the size of Los Angeles, 2/3 of New York City. London is more than two times the size of Singapore and Singapore is only 2/3 the size of Hong Kong. Yes we are really a very small small city.
Home to 5.9 million population currently, Singapore is a multiracial and multicultural country with about 76% of the citizens made up by Chinese, 15% by Malays and 7.4% by Indians. We also have Eurasians in our citizen mix.
English is our first language and depending on which ethnic group we belong to, we take our mother tongue (e.g. Chinese, Malay, Tamil) as second language. The older generation (those born in the 50s or earlier) usually do not speak English because back then, English wasn't made the first language.
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This video was filmed using a combination of iPhone 6 Plus and Sennheiser Memory Mic.
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