法國觀點:《Taïwan, le prochain repli stratégique de l'Occident ?》
臺灣,西方的下一個戰略撤退?
美國大西洋報刊登China’s ‘Very Tricky Situation’一文之後,法國大西洋報訪問了法國學者的看法。原文翻譯如下:
(文中受訪學者是Barthélémy Courmont是里爾天主教大學的講師,也是IRIS的研究主任,負責亞太部門。)
❓Atlantico: 美國《大西洋報》強調了臺灣在美國和中國的地緣政治角逐中的重要性。讓這個島嶼如此具有戰略意義的原因是什麼?
🟢Barthélemy Courmont : 台灣的重要性並非最近的事,只是受到重新評估。從1950年代起,在朝鮮戰爭的邊緣地帶,臺灣被美國視為防堵共產主義在東亞擴張的堡壘。主要是艾森豪政府中的共和黨政治家,不惜一切代價保衛臺灣以抵禦中國大陸的壓力。這種由兩國之間的協議所確認的戰略重要性,一直持續到冷戰結束,甚至持續到美國承認中國之後。因此,1979年的《臺灣關係法》擴展了兩國的戰略夥伴關係。美蘇兩極對抗結束後,人們對臺灣的興趣發生了變化。台灣在1980年代建立和鞏固了民主制度,臺北政府化身對抗極權政權的民主制度捍衛者,與此同時,臺灣也成為國際經濟中的一個重要角色。另一方面,中國則以天安門事件驟然澆熄了民主化的希望,兩個中國(les deux Chine)的經濟同樣快速起飛(臺灣在這方面先於中國大陸),但採取了相反的政治軌道,造持兩者之間差距越來越深。
在過去的20年裡,中國對國力的宣揚,加上美國逐漸從亞洲撤出,導致人們擔心美國會在亞洲失去所有的影響力。因此,盟國們動員組成了 "反中國陣線"( front anti-chinois),結合對民主的肯定、加強戰略對話並警惕與中國崛起有關的危機。因此,華盛頓不斷重申其與日本和韓國的關係,美國這兩個國家的軍事影響在冷戰結束30年後仍然非常強大。沒有得到外交承認的臺灣,在與中國發生安全危機的情況下,仍然受到華盛頓的保護,至少在其公開的意圖中是如此。鑒於北京和華盛頓之間的競爭日益加劇,臺灣的 "心結"(noeud,借用美國政治學家Richard Bush的說法)因此越來越緊。雖然把臺灣描述為「世界上最危險的地方」似乎略嫌誇張,正如《經濟學人》去年春天的表現,但無可爭議的是,這個擁有2300萬居民的島嶼,其戰略重要性與今天美國和中國之間的權力爭奪密切相關。這裡要提醒的是,中國將台灣視為叛亂省份,並自1949年分離後要求恢復領土。
❓雖然美國已經匆匆從阿富汗撤出,但西方會如此輕易地失去其在臺灣的影響力嗎?這將產生什麼影響?
🟢這不太可能,但同時也應該謹慎行事。為什麼不太可能,因為臺灣的民主政府和島上的絕大多數人(écrasante majorité)將中國視為戰略對手,甚至是對其主權的潛在威脅。在某種程度上,中國是臺灣唯一的敵人,而臺灣是中國唯一的敵人。面對這種威脅,考慮到過去二十年來軍事權力平衡已經改變,北京目前占優勢(別忘了直到2000年代中期,臺灣的軍事能力還能威懾中國),臺北必須依靠能夠提供援助的戰略夥伴。因此,與美國的聯繫是不可或缺的,與日本或歐洲國家之間的合作也是如此,還有東南亞國家。華盛頓的戰略影響在臺灣仍然非常有存在感。
同時,美國這種戰略支持的可信度如何,以及最重要的,臺灣人如何看待這種支持?一個經常被忽視的插曲可以說明狀況。2005年,中國通過了「反分裂法」(loi anti-secession),旨在勸阻陳水扁總統當時主張的臺灣獨立宣言。美國重申其對臺北的戰略支持作為回應,但明確指出,這種支持不是自動的(automatique),在臺北「挑釁」的情況下不適用。換句話說,華盛頓保留干預或撤退的權利,這取決於對具體事件的評估。如果中國對臺灣進行軍事攻擊--順帶一提,這種可能性必須讓我們參考博弈理論(la théorie des jeux)-- ,美國將在該確切時刻判斷介入的程度。而如果在美國看來,是臺灣挑釁北京,那麼美國的承諾很有可能減縮成態度上的宣示。臺灣並不會等到阿富汗的潰敗才意識到戰略對話和軍事承諾之間的區別。
❓從阿富汗撤軍是否反而會讓美國更加專注於與中國在印太地區的決戰?
🟢首先,應該知道,從阿富汗 "撤軍 "是美國在該地區外交政策的失敗,而並非只是部隊移動…。二十年來,中國一直是美國領袖,包括民主黨和共和黨人的心頭大患,而且這種心頭大患還在繼續擴大,有可能會忘記地緣政治不僅僅是兩國之間的拉鋸戰。華盛頓並沒有等到從阿富汗撤軍才認定中國是其一貫的對手,無論該認定是對是錯。在這種格局下,美國不斷尋求鞏固其在亞太地區的盟友網絡,利用口號(印度洋-太平洋是最新的口號)和威脅,有時是真的,有時不太是。QUAD(Quadrilateral Security Dialogue四國峰會)包括日本、澳大利亞和印度以及華盛頓,是拜登政府的優先事項。然而,在這個非常異質的集團本身的限制之外,其成員有時有非常不同的利益,華盛頓召集新的戰略夥伴的能力似乎有限。說服首爾加入QUAD的努力至今沒有成功,而對中國崛起的擔憂非常強烈的東南亞,也沒有被這個集團的邏輯所吸引。再加上這裡提到的所有國家,除印度外,都是與中國一起簽署RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 區域全面經濟夥伴協定)的國家......。簡而言之,中美對決在華盛頓被大力宣傳,但在亞太地區,對該地區的國家和公司而言,其現實情況又是如何?
📌訪問原文連結
https://www.atlantico.fr/article/decryptage/taiwan-le-prochain-repli-strategique-de-l-occident-barthelemy-courmont
📌美國大西洋報文章連結
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/09/china-taiwan-afghanistan/619950/
同時也有2部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過5,140的網紅Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音,也在其Youtube影片中提到,(This interview was recorded in November 2020.) In 2019, according to the Pentagon, China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training ...
「regional security」的推薦目錄:
- 關於regional security 在 以身嗜法。法國迷航的瞬間 Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於regional security 在 Scholarship for Vietnamese students Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於regional security 在 外交部 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC(Taiwan) Facebook 的最佳貼文
- 關於regional security 在 Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音 Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於regional security 在 王炳忠 Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於regional security 在 Regional Security System 的評價
- 關於regional security 在 Regional Security - YouTube 的評價
regional security 在 Scholarship for Vietnamese students Facebook 的最佳解答
[USA] HỌC BỔNG TOÀN PHẦN FULBRIGHT CỦA CHÍNH PHỦ MỸ 2022
Schofan săn học bổng chính hiệu chắc sẽ không còn lạ lẫm với học bổng Fulbrigh - học bổng được tài trợ hoàn toàn cho sinh viên 160 quốc gia trên khắp thế giới. Chương trình này được tài trợ bởi Chính phủ Hoa Kỳ, Bộ Ngoại giao Hoa Kỳ với mục đích thu hút những sinh viên xuất sắc đến với các lớp học quốc tế tại Mỹ. Chính phủ Mỹsẽ đài thọ tất cả các chi phí bao gồm cả thị thực của ứng viên. Chị đã từng chia sẻ học bổng này trên fanpage thời gian gần đây nhưng muốn chia sẻ lại để remind deadline của học bổng này là 15/09.
ĐIỀU ĐẶC BIỆT LÀ NĂM NAY HỒ SƠ KHÔNG CẦN CÓ ĐIỂM GRE (DO COVID-19) nha cả nhà
Thông tin về học bổng:
- Số lượng học bổng: 4000 học bổng được công bố trong năm nay (2021).
- Bậc học: Thạc sĩ và Tiến sĩ
- Thời gian theo học:
+ Thạc sĩ: 02 năm
+ Tiến sĩ: 04 năm
- Lĩnh vực: Energy; Water; Agriculture; Public health; Education; Social Sciences; Journalism and Mass Communication; Arts and Culture; Museum Studies; Urban and Regional Planning; Environmental Sciences; Security and Peace Studies; Data Sciences.
- GIÁ TRỊ HỌC BỔNG: TOÀN PHẦN (bao gồm: Complete Tuition Fees;
Air-Tickets; Living Allowances; Visa Fees; Stationary Allowance; Health allowance; A computer; Equal Living Standards)
- Link: https://cies.org/
👉 Lớp học bổng HannahEd hỗ trợ các bạn xin học bổng thành công, lịch, học phí, đăng ký tại http://tiny.cc/HannahEdClass
https://hannahed.co/lop-tim-va-nop-hoc-bong/
👉 Join các group để thảo luận, tìm hiểu info nha
Scholarship Hunters
Học bổng ngắn hạn, trao đổi, tình nguyện - HannahEd
English Club HEC
Job Hunters & Career Builders - HannahEd
Học bổng Chevening UK và IDEAS Ireland
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hannahed.co/
Website: https://hannahed.co/
Tiktok: hannahed.co
❤️Like và share nếu các em thấy thông tin có ích nhé ❤️
#HannahEd #duhoc #hocbong #sanhocbong #scholarshipforVietnamesestudents
regional security 在 外交部 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ROC(Taiwan) Facebook 的最佳貼文
台灣將持續以民主良善力量,在後疫情時代扮演印太區域積極可靠的角色
「凱達格蘭論壇-2021亞太安全對話 」剛落幕,有16位政要與專家線上視訊討論 #台海局勢對印太區域的挑戰、#四方安全對話、#灰色地帶脅迫、#後疫情時代建立可信賴供應鏈 等議題。
來,小編幫大家整理重點:
#蔡英文總統
蔡總統說,威權體制在COVID-19疫情中竄起,民主國家在後疫情時代更堅定捍衛共享價值和體制;她也強調台灣在民主、再生能源及半導體都是美日印澳的「四方安全對話」及歐盟「歐亞連結策略」 #不可或缺的夥伴。台灣願意承擔確保區域穩定的責任,我國盼與 #鄰國 在和平、穩定及互惠的原則下共存,並堅持捍衛民主和生活方式。
#克拉芙特大使
美國前駐聯合國常任代表克拉芙特大使說,#美國從川普政府到拜登總統都重視台灣,強調一旦台灣失守,太平洋的安全也就消失。她表示台灣具有與中國獨特的互動經驗,可提供QUAD參考,希望台灣成為QUAD+的成員。
#田中光政務次長
田次長在閉幕致詞中引用美國開國元勳富蘭克林的名言:「放棄自由以換取短暫安穩的人,既得不到自由,也得不到安穩」(中肯又重要),強調台灣自我防衛的決心,扮演捍衛民主價值、保障印太安全及全球供應鏈等戰略角色。
遠景基金會
The Ketagalan Forum—2021 Asia-Pacific Security Dialogue drew to a successful close yesterday. Due to the ongoing pandemic, the forum was held online this year, addressing a range of topics including developments in the Taiwan Strait, how QUAD are meeting the challenges of the #IndoPacific, #GrayZoneCoercion in the East and South China Seas and the reconfiguration of global supply chains in the #PostPandemicEra.
In her pre-recorded address, President Tsai Ing-wen warned that as we emerge from the pandemic, authoritarian regimes have a new confidence in their alternative model to the liberal democratic order. Taiwan, she said, which continues to thrive, can offer a solution to many democratic countries who are struggling to get their footing back amid a series of challenges, including #ClimateChange, emerging diseases, non-proliferation, terrorism, and secure supply chains. She added that Taiwan is well-positioned to serve as an indispensable partner in sectors such as biotechnology, renewable energy, and the semiconductor industry, with the revival of the QUAD and the EU's proposed EU-Asia Connectivity Strategy.
Keynote speaker, former United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft, with her Formosan bear in tow, stressed her personal relationship with Taiwan and called out China’s government-run media outlets for trying to take advantage of the situation in Afghanistan to undermine Taiwan’s trust in the United States as a security partner. She applauded the Biden administration for its continuing demonstration of the US commitment to Taiwan and underlined the importance of Taiwan to US security at home, saying “If Taiwan is lost, we lose too.” She also pointed to what she called systemic discrimination in the UN system against Taiwan and expressed her support for Taiwan becoming a QUAD+ member.
MOFA Deputy Minister Tien Chung-kwang stressed Taiwan’s determination to defend herself and to be a reliable partner in the creation of regional and global supply chains, citing US Founding Father Benjamin Franklin’s famous words, “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”
The dialogue hosted four panels, with 16 officials or former officials and academics from countries, including the #US, #Japan, #France, #Australia, #India, #Singapore, #SouthKorea, #Vietnam and the #Philippines.
regional security 在 Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音 Youtube 的精選貼文
(This interview was recorded in November 2020.)
In 2019, according to the Pentagon, China launched more ballistic missiles for testing and training than the rest of the world combined. It did it through its newly minted rocket force, the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force - acronym P-L-A-R-F.
PLARF is a critical component of China's nuclear deterrence strategy to deter and counter third-party intervention in regional conflicts. China's current defense minister, General Wei Fenghe, knows missiles. He was previously the commander of the predecessor of PLARF before PLARF was reorganized and given its new name.
Mark Stokes is our guest today. He is executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank based in Washington, DC. Mr. Stokes is a 20-year United States Air Force veteran who served in intelligence planning and policy roles.
Today’s episode is hosted by J.R. Wu - Chief of the Secretariat for INDSR (Institute for National Defense and Security Research) in Taiwan. Wu is a former journalist with nearly two decades of media experience in the US and Asia. She has led news bureaus for Reuters and Dow Jones.
Support us on Patreon:
http://patreon.com/taiwan
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/ghostislandme
SHOW CREDIT
Emily Y. Wu (Producer, Editor)
https://twitter.com/emilyywu
JR Wu (Host)
Alice Yeh (Editor, Researcher)
A Ghost Island Media production
https://twitter.com/ghostislandme
www.ghostisland.media
MB014NT6I74GS3F
regional security 在 王炳忠 Youtube 的精選貼文
🔥支付寶打賞:13581883245
🔥王炳忠今日頭條:搜索「王炳忠台灣」
🔥王炳忠臉書粉專:https://www.facebook.com/bingzhong.wang
♦♦♦
The Real Threat to the US is the loss of self-confidence
──An Open Letter to Mr. Secretary Mike Pompeo
My name is Wang Ping-Chung, the spokesperson for the New Party, Taiwan’s political party. During the ongoing pandemic of the Covid-19, the enemy of all human beings, including the American people and Chinese people, is definitely the corona virus. However, as Secretary of State of the United States, you seem to consider China instead of the virus to be your enemy. It lets you do little in pandemic prevention but much in blaming the WHO and China. You have even made great efforts to politicalize the issue of public health in order to attack China, which reflects the United States’ prevailing concept of so-called China’s threat. Nevertheless, the real threat to the US is not China but the loss of self-confidence indeed.
As President Franklin Roosevelt once said, “Only thing we have to fear is the fear itself.” The threat you have to fear today is not other peoples but yourselves. Even though you have done your best to shift blames on the WHO and China, the fact is already clear of the US domestic misdiagnosed cases, which had been seen as H1N1 but in fact corona virus since last autumn. It is also your fault in underestimating the severity of the epidemic while China sacrificed itself to let the world have more preparation time. Accordingly, the Covid-19 has killed more than fifty thousand people in America. As China’s population is four times larger than the US, it is quite shocking that America’s death toll due to the Covid-19 has been above China’s.
I feel so sorry for the suffering of your people, yet it is never too late to mend. However, not only did you palm off the responsibility on others, but you also undermined international solidarity against the pandemic. Moreover, you even try to deny the status of the WHO as the coordinator for universal combat against diseases, which in some way means challenging the global institutions under the governance of the United Nations. It is so unbelievable that the United States, viewing itself as the world leader above half a century, is tending to destroy the world order recognized by the international society. The very reason I can think of is the loss of America’s self-confidence. It is the threat to both the US and the whole world.
For Liberalists in the United States, China has been believed either an opponent or a violator to international institutions. As far as it’s concerned, there had been debates whether to keep containing China economically and militarily or engaging it institutionally. Both were resulted from America’s confidence in its leadership. Consequently, the confidence gradually changed into arrogance, luring the United States into aggressions upon other countries as the global superpower without permission from the UN Security Council. It made America exhausted at last. Therefore, the United States has become an isolationist, and even a betrayer to the global institutions they established before. On the contrary, China seems more like a protector of the world order.
On the other hand, for Realists, the predominant thinkers in international politics, China has been seen as the primary rival to America. As they estimate there will be threat if any other regional hegemony occurs, the nation’s fear becomes beyond what its capability can hold. To some extent, this is the real crisis to your people. In fact, different from western nations developing themselves by oppressing and exploiting others, the Chinese people have risen out of poverty at the cost of blood, sweat, and tears of our own. I would like to remind you of Franklin Roosevelt’s self-evident words that nothing to fear but fear itself. The only threat you should conquer is the threat in your mind.
As Henry Kissinger has argued, relations between China and the United States need not – and should not – become a zero-sum game. He also suggested that China and America build a Pacific community with each other. Thinking in the same way, Chinese President Xi also claimed that the vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for the two large countries of China and the United States. Furthermore, I believe the world is large enough to embrace different political and social systems. As western liberalism in recent years has met difficulties in over-consumption and government failure, we should be more open-minded to the superiority of Chinese governance in some fields, especially the high efficiency in defeating the epidemic. The United States should also be more self-confident to have China rising under the global governance of international institutions, sharing with mutual benefits instead of destroying each other. Without doubt, only by doing so can the United States overcome the real threat and bring the world peace and prosperity, the real universal values for all mankind.
regional security 在 Regional Security - YouTube 的推薦與評價
Regional Security. 433 views · 7 years ago ... The Future of International Economic Policy with Deputy National Security Advisor Mike Pyle. ... <看更多>
regional security 在 Regional Security System 的推薦與評價
Regional Security System. 1086 likes · 2 talking about this. The Regional Security System aims to ensure the stability and well-being of Member States... ... <看更多>