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*** ปาเกียวลงชิงเก้าอี้ ปธน. ฟิลิปปินส์ปีหน้า ***

เมื่อวันที่ 19 ก.ย. ที่ผ่านมา แมนนี ปาเกียว ประกาศลงสมัครรับเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีฟิลิปปินส์ในปี 2022 ในนามพรรคเดียวกับ รอดรีโก ดูเตอร์เต ประธานาธิบดีคนปัจจุบัน ซึ่งไม่มีสิทธิ์ในการลงสมัครเลือกตั้งประธานาธิบดีสมัยที่ 3 ตามรัฐธรรมนูญ และกลุ่มของเขาอาจส่งลูกสาวลงชิงชัยแทน

แมนนี ปาเกียววัย 42 ปี สมาชิกวุฒิสภาจากพรรคประชาธิปไตยประชาชนฟิลิปปินส์ (PDP–Laban) ซึ่งเป็นพรรครัฐบาลพรรคเดียวกับดูเตอร์เต และอดีตแชมป์มวยอาชีพโลกหลายสมัยจากหลายรุ่นน้ำหนัก ยอมรับการเสนอชื่อของพันธมิตรทางการเมือง พร้อมหาเสียงโดยปราศรัยโจมตีการคอร์รัปชันในรัฐบาลและความสัมพันธ์ของดูเตอร์เตกับจีน

“ผมเป็นนักสู้ และผมจะเป็นนักสู้ตลอดไปทั้งในและนอกสังเวียน ... เราต้องการรัฐบาลที่รับใช้ประชาชนของเราด้วยความซื่อสัตย์, เมตตาธรรมและโปร่งใส” เขากล่าว

ชื่อเสียงของปาเกียวน่าจะช่วยเขาเพิ่มโอกาสชนะของเขาในประเทศฟิลิปปินส์ซึ่งขึ้นชื่อเรื่องการเลือกตั้งคนมีชื่อเสียง แม้ว่าก่อนหน้านี้ผู้สนับสนุนเขาจะลดลงเพราะเขาไปเรียกเกย์ว่า “ต่ำยิ่งกว่าสัตว์” และเขาสนับสนุนนโยบายสงครามปราบยาเสพติดของดูเตอร์เต ซึ่งเมื่อสัปดาห์ที่แล้วมีข่าวว่าศาลอาญาระหว่างประเทศเปิดการสอบสวนในข้อกล่าวหาอาชญากรรมต่อมนุษยชาติจากสงครามปราบยาเสพติดของดูเตอร์เต ซึ่งมีการวิสามัญฆาตกรรมอาจถึงหลักหมื่นคน

ขณะที่กลุ่มของดูเตอร์เตซึ่งมาจากพรรคเดียวกันนั้น เสนอชื่อ คริสโตเฟอร์ โก ผู้ช่วยคนสนิทของดูเตอร์เต ลงสมัครชิงตำแหน่งประธานาธิบดี ส่วนดูเตอร์เตจะเลี่ยงไปเป็นรองประธานาธิบดีแทน ทำให้เกิดเสียงวิจารณ์ว่าเขาตั้งใจจะสืบทอดอำนาจต่อไป

โกปฏิเสธการเสนอชื่อ ทำให้มีการคาดว่าลูกสาวของดูเตอร์เต คือ ซารา ดูเตอร์เต-คาร์ปิโอ น่าจะได้รับการเสนอชื่อแทน นี่แสดงให้เห็นความขัดแย้งในพรรครัฐบาล ระหว่างกลุ่มผู้สนับสนุนปาเกียวกับดูเตอร์เต

ก่อนหน้านี้ปาเกียวเคยสนับสนุนดูเตอร์เตอย่างใกล้ชิดมาก่อน แต่เขาหันมาเปิดการสอบสวนเรื่องคอร์รัปชันต่อรัฐบาลในเรื่องการรับมือต่อโควิด-19 รวมทั้งการบดบังเงินช่วยเหลือคนยากจน ข้อกล่าวหาว่ามีการตั้งราคาอุปกรณ์และเครื่องมือแพทย์สูงกว่าจริง

เมื่อเดือน ก.ค. ที่ผ่านมา ที่ประชุมพรรค PDP–Laban ลงมติขับปาเกียวออกจากตำแหน่งหัวหน้าพรรค หลังโจมตีดูเตอร์เตในเรื่องคอร์รัปชันและความสัมพันธ์กับจีน แต่สมาชิกบางส่วนที่เป็นพันธมิตรเขาไม่ยอมรับ ทำให้ตำแหน่งหัวหน้าพรรคตัวจริงยังคาราคาซังอยู่

อย่างไรก็ตาม โอกาสชนะของปาเกียวก็ไม่ได้สูงขนาดนั้น แม้ตัวปาเกียวจะมีชื่อเสียงและความนิยมมาก แต่โพลยังตามหลังลูกสาวของดูเตอร์เตอยู่เรื่อยๆ

::: อ้างอิง :::

- reuters (ดอต) com/world/asia-pacific/boxer-manny-pacquiao-nominated-presidential-candidate-philippines-2022-election-2021-09-19/
- bbc (ดอต) com/news/world-asia-58614108
- apnews (ดอต) com/article/philippines-boxing-manny-pacquiao-president-078b2a32f76ebfad982d420f8a83231a
- bangkokpost (ดอต) com/world/2184735/philippines-manny-pacquiao-to-run-for-president-in-2022

*** วิกฤตหนี้เอเวอร์แกรนด์ ส่อซ้ำรอย “ปล่อยล้มไม่ได้” ***

วานนี้ (21 ก.ย.) มีรายงานว่า เอเวอร์แกรนด์ บริษัทอสังหาริมทรัพย์ใหญ่สุดอันดับ 2 ของจีน ส่อผิดนัดชำระหนี้ ส่งผลทำให้ตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลกดิ่งลง เนื่องจากนักลงทุนเกรงว่าจะเกิดผลกระทบต่อเศรษฐกิจจีน

เอเวอร์แกรนด์เป็นบริษัทอสังหาริมทรัพย์ซึ่งก่อตั้งขึ้นในปี 1996 ก่อนเติบโตขึ้นมาเป็นเจ้าของโครงการอสังหาริมทรัพย์กว่า 1,300 โครงการใน 280 นครของจีน นอกจากนี้ ยังขยับขยายไปประกอบธุรกิจจัดการความมั่งคั่ง, ผลิตรถยนต์ไฟฟ้าและเครื่องดื่ม รวมทั้งเป็นเจ้าของทีมฟุตบอลกวางโจว

การขยายกิจการอย่างดุเดือดของเอเวอร์แกรนด์ใช้วิธีกู้ยืมเงินกว่า 300,000 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐ จนกลายเป็นบริษัทพัฒนาอสังหาริมทรัพย์ที่มีหนี้มากที่สุดในโลก นอกจากนี้บ.ยังได้รับผลกระทบจากนโยบายของสีจิ้นผิงที่จำกัดระดับหนี้ของภาคอสังหาริมทรัพย์ (แปลว่าบริษัทที่เคยมีหนี้เกินที่กำหนดต้องหาทางลดหนี้โดยเร็วที่สุด)

ก่อนหน้านี้บริษัทเคยต้องชำระหนี้เป็นอสังหาริมทรัพย์ที่ลดราคาหนักเพื่อพยุงธุรกิจให้อยู่รอดมาแล้ว และยังบังคับยืมเงินจากพนักงานและงดจ่ายดอกเบี้ยในเดือน ก.ย. นี้ ผลทำให้ราคาหุ้นบริษัทดิ่งลง 85% ตั้งแต่ต้นปี

บริษัทยังอาจผิดนัดชำระหนี้พันธบัตรมูลค่า 84 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐในวันพรุ่งนี้ (23 ก.ย.) และอีก 47 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐในสัปดาห์หน้า (29 ก.ย.) อาจส่งผลต่อเศรษฐกิจจีนและทำให้ตลาดหุ้นทั่วโลกดิ่งลง

ผลกระทบที่จะเกิดขึ้นถ้าเอเวอร์แกรนด์ล้มมีหลายอย่าง ได้แก่:
1. เอกชนที่ซื้ออสังหาริมทรัพย์แบบวางเงินล่วงหน้าจะสูญเงิน
2. กิจการที่ทำธุรกิจกับเอเวอร์แกรนด์อาจขาดทุนหนักจนล้มตาม และ
3. ธนาคารต่างๆ ของจีนอาจถูกบีบให้กู้ยืมเงินน้อยลง เกิดภาวะที่เรียกว่า “สินเชื่อตึงตัว” (credit crunch) ทำให้ไม่ดึงดูดการเติบโตทางเศรษฐกิจและการลงทุนจากต่างชาติ

นักวิเคราะห์ต่างประเมินว่า รัฐบาลจีนจะเข้ามาอุ้มเพื่อป้องกันผลกระทบต่อเจ้าของอสังหาริมทรัพย์ และเศรษฐกิจภาคก่อสร้างหรือไม่ เพื่อป้องกันประวัติศาสตร์ซ้ำรอยแบบเมื่อครั้งที่เลห์แมนบราเธอส์ล้มเมื่อปี 2008 แต่บรรณาธิการโกลบอลไทมส์ของทางการจีน ระบุว่า บริษัทไม่ควรเดิมพันว่ารัฐบาลจะเข้ามาอุ้มเพราะคิดว่าตัวเอง “ใหญ่จนปล่อยล้มไม่ได้”

::: อ้างอิง :::

- bbc (ดอต) com/news/business-58579833
- theguardian (ดอต) com/world/2021/sep/21/evergrande-will-it-- collapse-and-what-would-happen-if-it-did
- reuters (ดอต) com/world/china/china-evergrande-inches-close-default-deadline-investors-wait-2021-09-21/

[English Club HEC] 🔥 KINH NGHIỆM TỰ HỌC ĐẾN 9.0 IELTS READING 🔥

Bài sharing sau của bạn Huyền Thương về fkinh nghiệm tự học từ 0-9.0 trong group học Tiếng Anh và IELTS free của page cực hữu ích luôn nè. Cả nhà join group English Club HEC để học hỏi và giao lưu, hỏi đáp nhau nha ;)

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Xin chào mọi người, qua quá trình tự học mình nhận thấy để cải thiện kỹ năng Đọc, chúng mình cần tìm được tài liệu phù hợp với trình độ để ôn luyện hiệu quả và đỡ nản. Hôm nay mình xin phép chia sẻ nguồn tài liệu và quá trình mình đã học để đạt đến IELTS Reading 9.0.
Mình chia nguồn tài liệu và kinh nghiệm cá nhân thành các giai đoạn tương đối:

1. Giai đoạn < IELTS 4.5
- Tài liệu mình thấy tuyệt vời nhất là các cuốn sách bài tập của các giáo trình giao tiếp. Giai đoạn này chúng mình chưa nên làm đề thi vội vì đề thi thật quá khó. Các cuốn sách bài tập có cả phần từ vựng, ngữ pháp và bài đọc, mình lại kiểm tra được đáp án ở cuối sách sau khi làm. Hai giáo trình mà mình tâm đắc là New English File – workbook và New Cutting Edge – workbook. Chúng mình nên bắt đầu từ trình độ Pre-Intermediate sau đó đến Intermediate. Nếu ngữ pháp có phần không hiểu mình có thể tìm kiếm kiến thức các dạng ngữ pháp trên mạng, đọc giải thích bằng Tiếng Việt để hiểu rõ hơn.

- Ngoài ra, giai đoạn này nên được tận dụng để học nhiều Từ vựng và Ngữ pháp cơ bản. Từ vựng thì hiển nhiên rất cần thiết để dịch hiểu, nhưng một phần không thể thiếu để làm bài chính xác là Ngữ pháp. Mình xin giới thiệu bộ Oxford Word Skills (Basic + Intermediate) và ngữ pháp Grammar Practice – Longman (Elementary – Pre-Intermediate/ Intermediate). Vì đây là giáo trình bằng Tiếng Anh nên mình cần tìm tòi tra từ điển (có thể bắt đầu với từ điển Anh – Việt, sau quen dần thì dùng Anh – Anh). Kiến thức ngữ pháp trong cuốn mình giới thiệu cũng đơn giản, có thể hiểu được chứ chưa quá phức tạp.

2. Giai đoạn làm quen với bài thi: IELTS 4.5 – 5.5
- Từ trình độ IELTS 4.5, chúng mình nên tiếp cận dần với bài đọc dài hơn ở các cuốn Basic IELTS Reading, Get Ready for IELTS Reading – Collins, Complete IELTS 4-5 và bài đọc đầu tiên của các sách Cambridge Practice Tests. Tự học đồng nghĩa với việc mình phải kiểm tra đáp án kỹ lưỡng, tìm lại thông tin trong bài đọc để hiểu tại sao mình sai.

- Từ vựng: Ở bước này mình xin giới thiệu thứ tự ưu tiên học từ vựng của mình qua bài đọc.
1. Luôn học những từ đồng nghĩa ở câu hỏi với trong bài đọc.
2. Những từ ảnh hưởng đến việc dịch nghĩa ở bài đọc để làm được câu hỏi.
3. Những từ đã gặp đi gặp lại một vài lần, nhớ mang máng đã gặp ở đâu.
- Từ vựng ở giai đoạn này bắt đầu khó hơn, có từ học thuật, mình ghi chép từ gốc, “word family” (danh từ, động từ, tính từ, cụm từ, giới từ có liên quan), ghi luôn phát âm, trọng âm, ví dụ. Học như vậy sẽ áp dụng cho cả phần Nói & Viết. Mình nhấn mạnh đừng quên học cụm từ có liên quan (collocations), ví dụ achieve a result và result of sth. Về sách chúng mình có thể bắt đầu học Vocabulary for IELTS nhưng mình thấy từ 5.0 trở lên học thì ổn hơn.

- Hiểu cách dùng các dạng ngữ pháp rất quan trọng để làm đúng vì mình đã thấy rất nhiều lần câu hỏi và nội dung bài đọc dùng 2 thì khác nhau, bài đọc dùng dùng dạng giả định với điều kiện loại 2 (would)…Mình thì vẫn học Grammar In Use, nhưng các bạn thử tìm hiểu cả Giải thích Ngữ pháp – Mai Lan Hương nhé.

3. Giai đoạn 5.5-6.5
- Giai đoạn này có nhiều tài liệu hơn rồi, mình thích nhất cuốn Complete IELTS (5-6.5) & Improve your IELTS – Reading Skills, kếp hợp làm bài 2 & 3 bộ đề Cambridge Practice Tests. Trong sách Improve your IELTS, kỹ năng Skimming & Scanning được giải thích rất rõ, các dạng câu hỏi cũng được giới thiệu cách bước làm bài.

- Nếu ở đầu giai đoạn này thì sách Essential Words for the IELTS – Barron’s rất hay, họ dạy tư duy về từ đồng nghĩa, dạy “word family” sau bài đọc.

- Mọi người đừng ngại làm lại các đề Reading ở sách Cambridge nhé, bản thân mình làm 3,4 lần, có khi nhiều hơn. Mỗi lần làm lại sẽ thấy hiểu hơn, ôn lại từ mới và rút ra được chiến thuật tốt hơn cho bản thân.

4. Từ 6.5 trở lên.
- Với giai đoạn này mình sẽ nói nhiều hơn về các dạng bài và chiến thuật làm bài vì tài liệu chủ yếu bám vào bộ Cambridge. Với trình độ này chắc hẳn mọi người đều có cách làm riêng cho từ dạng bài rồi, nhưng mình xin chia sẻ là bước “Đoán câu trả lời” (Prediction) rất hiệu quả với mình. Mình không chỉ đoán loại từ cần điền dựa vào ngữ pháp mà còn đoán nội dung cần điền ví dụ đơn giản như:
“…advantages of aluminium screw caps
- do not affect the 1…………. of the bottle contents
- are 2…………… to produce
- are 3…………… to use”
Lúc đọc đề mình sẽ đoán 1. quality; 2. cheap; 3. convenient
Cách này giúp mình định hướng tìm đáp án nhanh hơn, có thể áp dụng với nhiều dạng câu hỏi.

- Không phải nói thì quản lý thời gian với kỹ năng Đọc rất quan trọng, mình ép bản thân dịch, scanning nhanh hơn qua mỗi lần làm bài, đoán nghĩa của từ nhiều hơn. Thời gian làm bài khoảng 15’ cho bài đầu, 20’ cho các bài sau và ép rút ngắn nhiều hơn nữa.

- Vì rút ngắn được thời gian nên đi thi mình thường có nhiều thời gian kiểm tra lại đáp án. Lúc làm bài, mình luôn gạch chân và đánh dấu thông tin mình thấy ở bài đọc để sau soát lại. Đã có nhiều lần mình sửa lại được đúng thêm 1,2 câu.

5. Đọc để giải trí và học hỏi
Ngoài học sách vở, mình tiến bộ nhiều qua đọc báo mọi người ạ. Mình thích đọc tin tức nên hay lang thang đọc báo mạng nhiều hơn đọc sách. Mình nghĩ việc đọc mỗi ngày giúp bọn mình làm quen với áp lực làm bài đọc đến 1h và mở rộng kiến thức. Mình recommend báo Reuters để bắt đầu vì ngôn ngữ khá dễ hiểu, sau mọi người trọn trang mình thích như BBC, CNN, the Guardian, Sky News…

6. Về việc tự học
Cuối cùng thì mình thấy rằng việc tự học một ngoại ngữ đòi hỏi nhiều thời gian, công sức. Mọi người cứ tìm tài liệu đọc, nghe về lĩnh vực yêu thích thông qua sách, báo, tạp chí, các trang mạng... Điều quan trọng là mình thấy việc học tiếng Anh chỉ để bổ trợ cho đam mê và công việc của mình, không bị áp lực quá về việc học. Dịch bệnh như thế này là cơ hội tốt để tận dụng thời gian học, hãy làm gì đó mỗi ngày, xem 1 video Youtube, đọc 1 bài báo, nói, viết 1 vài câu mọi người ạ.

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“Democracy is a failure” - that’s the narrative the Chinese Communist Party has been trying to plant over the past year and hopes to take root in international discourse and in the minds of its 1.4 billion citizens. This disinformation has heavy implications for democracy in Taiwan, and it’s never been as serious as it is now.

CCP disinformation methods are detailed in a report issued late last year titled “Deafening Whispers” by Doublethink Lab, a Taiwanese organization whose mission is to strengthen democracy through digital defense. The report has just been made available in English.

This interview was recorded in January 2021 when the Chinese-version of the report was first published.

Online disinformation and influence operations affect offline real-world defense and security. Fake news is a global issue and this is The Taiwan Take. Today’s guest is Dr. Puma Shen (沈伯洋), chairman of Doublethink Lab (台灣民主實驗室) and an assistant professor at National Taipei University.


Deafening Whispers: https://medium.com/doublethinklab/deafening-whispers-f9b1d773f6cd

Today’s episode is hosted by J.R. Wu - Chief of the Secretariat for INDSR (Institute for National Defense and Security Research) in Taiwan. Wu is a former journalist with nearly two decades of media experience in the US and Asia. She has led news bureaus for Reuters and Dow Jones.

Support us on Patreon: http://patreon.com/taiwan
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ghostislandme

SHOW CREDIT

JR Wu (Host)
Emily Y. Wu (Producer): https://twitter.com/emilyywu
Alice Yeh (Editing | Researcher)
Music: MB013KF2YKVG19A

A Ghost Island Media production
www.ghostisland.media

PTT is one of the most open social media platforms in the Chinese language. Though it’s not more populous than Facebook, it’s arguably more impactful than Facebook here in Taiwan. It’s a reflection of Taiwan's spirited democracy, and it’s used heavily as a source for local journalists.

We speak with two INDSR researchers on a year-long project, “A Pilot Study on PTT in the Context of Influence Operations” (批踢踢影響力作戰前導研究）which attempts to identify CCP state actors on the platfor. The researchers are Oddis J.F. Tsai (Policy Analyst at the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources) and Dr. Jui-Ming Hung (Assistant Research Fellow at the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources).

The paper lays out mechanics and - through quantitative analysis - identifies types of suspect behavior on the world’s largest non-commercial, forum-based, open-source online bulletin board system in the Chinese language. This interview was recorded in January 2021 after the paper was published by INDSR.

Today’s host is J.R. Wu - a non-resident advisor at INDSR (Institute for National Defense and Security Research) in Taiwan. Wu is a former journalist with nearly two decades of media experience in the US and Asia. She has led news bureaus for Reuters and Dow Jones.

Support us on Patreon: http://patreon.com/taiwan
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ghostislandme

EPISODE CREDIT

JR Wu (Host)
Emily Y. Wu (Producer, Editing): https://twitter.com/emilyywu
Alice Yeh (Researcher)
Music: MB01I2MT5YPZMMW

A Ghost Island Media production
www.ghostisland.media