#拜登挺台入北約? #誰疑美棄台?
#台灣面對國際關係不該輕率躁動
今日凌晨,網路上傳開拜登總統接受美國媒體ABC News主持人George Stephanopoulos專訪時的一段談話,被認為是繼國家安全顧問蘇利文(Jake Sullivan)前一日的發言後,美國政府再度公開對阿富汗撤軍後世界各國包括台灣都逐漸升溫的「#疑美論」(認為美國的安全承諾不可靠)做出回應。
我們來分析一下究竟發生了什麼事,是否真的對台灣有影響,又有哪些人藉機提款?
📒先來讀段原文與翻譯(有興趣比較各家翻譯看ref,頗有趣):
STEPHANOPOULOS: You talked about our adversaries, China and Russia. You already see China telling Taiwan, "See? You can't count on the Americans." (LAUGH)
史蒂芬諾伯羅斯:「你談到了我們的對手們,中國和俄羅斯。你已經看到中國在告訴台灣:『看到沒?你們不能靠美國人啦/美國人靠不住啦(笑)』」
BIDEN: Sh-- why wouldn't China say that? Look, George, the idea that w-- there's a fundamental difference between-- between Taiwan, South Korea, NATO. We are in a situation where they are in-- entities we've made agreements with based on not a civil war they're having on that island or in South Korea, but on an agreement where they have a unity government that, in fact, is trying to keep bad guys from doin' bad things to them.
拜登:「中國怎會不這樣講?(中國不這樣講才奇怪之意)你看哦,喬治,台灣、南韓、北約的狀況根本就(和阿富汗)不一樣。現在我們身處的情況是,無論是在那座島上或是在南韓,我們都同意那裡沒有內戰,而是有統合(一致)的政府,事實上,他們也正試圖別讓壞人對他們做出壞事。」
We have made-- kept every commitment. We made a sacred commitment to Article Five that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with-- Taiwan. It's not even comparable to talk about that.
我們已承——我們信守一切承諾。我們對(《北大西洋公約》(North Atlantic Treaty)的)第五條作出了莊嚴的承諾,如果有人要入侵、或採取行動對抗我們的北約盟友,我們會回應。對日本是如此,對南韓是如此,對——台灣(也)是如此。這根本就無法比較。」
❚
這段談話一出,讓許多熟稔台美關係的前官員、政策專家、分析師與評論者都相當驚訝,認為「#高度不尋常」,因為這幾乎等於把台灣(以及日韓)放到對美國來說與北約盟友同等級的位置,意味著如果台灣及日韓遭受攻擊或對抗行動,美國將會有所反應(包括出兵),如果以政策意涵來解讀,這等於極大化美國對東亞友鄰的安全承諾。
以前連《美日安保條約》是否涉及釣魚台都要吵個幾十年,怎麼可能一句話就說日韓台我通通要守下來?何況美國與中華民國🇹🇼(or台灣)目前並未有正式的軍事同盟或協防條約(MDT),如何與北約對比?(《北大西洋公約》第五條「#集體防衛(collective defence)」條款主張:聯盟中任一成員受攻擊,將被視為對全體成員的侵略事件。)
與台灣網路輿論圈的自嗨、樂觀情緒(#台灣要加入北約了?美國爸爸表態死守台灣!)相反,正因為這個表態太過不尋常與不可能,更違反了美國長期以來堅守的「#戰略模糊」政策立場(”a deviation from a long-held U.S. position of "strategic ambiguity.”)。
第一時間,許多評論就認為這可能是拜登的又一次 #口誤(misspoken),代表人物如美國的中國問題專家 #葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)就抱持這樣的看法。
如果到她及一些美國政策圈人士的推特上去逛逛,可以看到在消息出來後,他們就熱烈討論這是否又是口誤、等著看白宮或國務院誰出來把這句話收回去...諸如此類的推文。
(葛來儀推特:https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/with_replies)
果然,該篇專訪登出後不到7個小時,拜登政府的資深官員就對路透社(Reuters)放風透露:「#美國對台政策不變。」(“policy with regard to Taiwan has not changed”)
❚
繞了一圈,什麼都沒改變,只有某些人又開心自嗨了一波,或是藉機使力推了一波自己關心的議題。
1⃣️長期關注美台關係議題的「US Taiwan Watch: 美國台灣觀測站」粉專大概是台灣這一波訊息燒開的推播起點與主力,內容尚稱公允詳實,並未特別增添政治觀點,也提醒大家美國依然沒有明確回應如果中共出兵,美國會是如何的回應法。(但美國也不可能明確回應,「戰略模糊」,remember?)
2⃣️民進黨副秘書長林飛帆於凌晨2點多發文(大概是觀測站的粉絲),除了同樣提供原文翻譯及評論,重點在他提到拜登的談話,「與美國國安會顧問蘇利文Jake Sullivan把台灣與以色列並列的談話,都明確破除中共正在台灣大肆操作的「#疑美論」和「#美國棄台論」,值得我們持續關注。」
這件事確實值得關注。然而坦白說,台灣的「疑美論」和「美國棄台論」有多少成分是中共大肆操作,有多少是民間自發討論?大概很難有人可以給出客觀量化的數據。因為在阿富汗撤軍後,世界各國都多少興起了這股 #疑美論風潮,連《紐約時報》與諸多民主黨政治人物都批評拜登,紐時更提醒諸多亞洲國家包括 #台灣要警醒。但台灣面對中共武力威脅與併吞野心,自然又多了這一層複雜的外力因素。
但也沒關係啦,台灣人又不是第一次面對美國撤軍,沒那麼玻璃心,對吧????
(請自行腦補安納金與莉亞meme)
台灣:first time?
3⃣️民進黨在外交及國防委員會的王定宇委員也一如往常的ㄒㄧ⋯分享外交消息給大家,他除了分享「觀測站」的貼文外,主要是在自己的評論中獨到地給出了「美國認為台灣是一個國家」的觀點。他提到:「這不僅是另一個首次把台灣跟北約、日韓列為同等盟國,更是美國總統首次明確地表達,台灣面對的是外敵,而台灣是個完整的國家、政府。這是個難以置信的重大改變。」
(???我們看的是同一篇專訪嗎🤔️)
不知道王委員是英文太好還是情緒太亢奮,以上的解讀實在有些太over。前半段勉強說得通,至少從拜登總統的談話,我們可以看到台日韓有著與北約盟國的「#相同待遇」,但這其實離成為北約盟國或角色身份如同北約盟國都有一點差距。
再來,拜登總統在提到台灣與南韓前時用的詞是「entities」(實體),這個詞很常用於形容一些不能算是主權國家的團體,美國或世界各地在國際法中討論到中華民國(ROC)或台灣(Taiwan)時很常使用這個詞,如「#政治實體」(political entity)。雖然不知道為何把南韓也放在一起(大概又是直率坦言下的口誤,韓國人知道會很生氣吧?),但重點在後面提到的「他們(台灣&南韓))有個 #統合一致的政府」(”they have a unity government”)。
拋開國內的朝野政爭,台灣基本上是有個一致、受民眾承認的政府,這是常識,哪裡有提到台灣是個完整的「國家」?這是哪門子「難以置信的重大改變」?歷史經驗證明,王定宇委員的「嗨翻」,通常對台灣都沒什麼幫助。而王委員以為在揉眼捏大腿的國際專家,早就根據經驗冷靜預判出的局勢走向,也很快被拜登政府資深官員證實。
該說拜登政府資深官員打臉王定宇委員嗎?還是讓他繼續嗨?
❚ 小結
近期有一些帶風向的作為與說法,認為在野黨(主要是國民黨)採取疑美論、挑戰甚至傷害台美關係及許多人為增進台美關係付出的努力。我不會不同意中共對台無論是實體滲透或是虛擬世界的資訊戰、認知作戰,都是我們該關心的議題及與之對抗的作戰陣地。但真的懇請執政黨多花心力在國防改革、軍事轉型或是兩岸關係的改善上,不要整天操作台美關係的訊息作為打擊在野黨的大內宣。
挑少數極端聲音出來講實在沒意思,難道陳O惟、王O宇之流的聲音可以代表民進黨主流意見?相信民進黨的朋友也不會認同。
就我個人觀察,實在不認為國民黨內疑美、反美是主流立場,至多在個別議題上與美方立場有不同意見,黨的整體與決策層級人士基本上都是親美立場居多,只是他們又要顧及兩岸關係(親美和陸),沒辦法(也不認同)像民進黨那樣採取「#一邊倒」的政策,完全走「抗中保台」路線,親美程度感覺有差。但很大程度上,一些國民黨人也認為這樣的一邊倒政策對台灣人民的安全來說其實 #不夠負責任。
這樣一邊倒不留餘地,甚至可能煽動戰爭風險的路線對台灣是有危險的,「在應競爭的領域競爭,在 #可合作的領域合作,在 #必須對抗的領域對抗」,這是美國國務卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)揭示的對華方針,絕對不是一些人說的什麼美中全面爭霸、準備開戰,台灣要趕快選邊站對邊。
這也是為何近期包括吳釗燮部長、邱義仁秘書長及蔡英文總統,都一再發出 #踩煞車 意味的言論,甚至關心對岸水災,一改對抗姿態的原因。畢竟台海風高浪急,美國也不得不出來重申政策框架的邊界,「拜登政府支持強健的美台非官方關係,#不支持台灣獨立。」(by美國白宮國家安全委員會印太事務協調官坎貝爾Kurt Campbell)
對美國來說,這些長期的政策框架如果不是地緣政治結構大幅改變,很難輕易撼動,即便政策要改弦易撤,也都有從摸索、試探到逐漸釋放訊號的過程,不可能因為總統一句話推翻整個政策框架(即便他擁有那樣的權力,但也得透過一些程序來處理,而且幕僚們應該會死命勸阻他)。
君不見繼資深官員放話路透社之後,#國務院發言人 也跑出來重申台灣關係法、六項保證及一中政策等老調了嗎?歷經幾十年淬鍊實踐的政策框架,是不可能輕易更動的。
要戰略模糊還是戰略清晰?這件事 #本身也是模糊的,端看當下環境美國要如何彈性運用,重點在於能夠有效嚇阻。
台灣內部因為歷史與政治的多重因素,對於自身在國際上的地位有著 #焦慮與不安全感,把美國視為維持生存的唯一救生圈。阿富汗撤軍為何在台灣引起極大熱議,除了媒體的推波助瀾、喚起年長的國人當年美國撤軍斷交的痛苦回憶,很大程度上也是反應當前國人尤其綠營內部或許連他們自己都沒有意識到的 #焦慮與恐懼,想要相信、也逼自己相信美國一定會幫忙防守台灣、台灣非常重要,因此看到美方的誰說了什麼一點話,情緒就受到大幅刺激與波動,不是歡欣鼓舞就是難過得要命,實在大可不必。
如果是真正 #勇敢自信的台灣人,看到今天阿富汗面臨的情況(或說下場),應該是可以 #處變不驚(我們 #中華民國派 喜歡講 #莊敬自強 💪),最應先思考的是如何自立自強、如何提升台灣的籌碼與重要性,來認真檢視各項議題:是否要改革兵役制度、加強台灣的國防戰力,我們的軍事轉型完成了嗎?做對了嗎?我們的兩岸溝通管道暢通嗎?有辦法在周邊出事時保持最基本的聯繫而不誤判嗎?
#國際關係是關乎生與死的學問(”International theory is the theory of survival”— Martin Wight, 1961),需要長期觀察與浸淫才能一窺堂奧。近年來開始有很多專注國際關係的新媒體出現與傳統媒體的投入,這是好事。台灣非常需要了解國際關係,無論是經貿或是更重要的安全層面,更應該隨時保持冷靜思考,不要患得患失、隨媒體或政治人物的誇張言論起舞,因為這關乎我們所有人共同家園的存續,
我們所有人的生與死。
同時也有1974部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過101萬的網紅ナスDの大冒険YouTube版,也在其Youtube影片中提到,史上最強の無人島へと 向かったナスDだったが、 そこには…⁉︎ そして今回の動画は ナスDが無人島で作曲した曲を含む ナスDの大冒険YouTube版 全曲オリジナルソングでお届け致します。 ※動画をご覧になられる際は、 イヤホン着用をご推奨させて頂きます。 ☆もっとこうした方が良い等、 ご意...
「survival island」的推薦目錄:
- 關於survival island 在 Facebook 的最讚貼文
- 關於survival island 在 王定宇 Facebook 的最佳解答
- 關於survival island 在 國立臺灣大學 National Taiwan University Facebook 的精選貼文
- 關於survival island 在 ナスDの大冒険YouTube版 Youtube 的最佳貼文
- 關於survival island 在 Kingsan Youtube 的最佳貼文
- 關於survival island 在 AomAmChannel Youtube 的精選貼文
- 關於survival island 在 The latest action movie "The Return of the King of Survival ... 的評價
- 關於survival island 在 Survival Island: Evo - Home | Facebook 的評價
survival island 在 王定宇 Facebook 的最佳解答
定宇揪你一起讀新聞…
日本副相麻生太郎公開演講,以現任內閣副首相和日本國安會決策委員身分,拋出二個震撼彈:「中國侵略台灣,是日本國家存續威脅」、「中國侵略台灣,符合日本啟動集體自衛權,日、美應該協防台灣」。
這是印太區域安全和國際地緣政治的重大發展,也是「美日安保條約」下,日本方替日、美二國針對中國的擴張野心,公開揭露的「紅線」,對於台灣的安全和穩定是具體而正面的發展!
台灣的安全當然要靠自己,但是有朋友願意幫忙和國際局勢有利台灣,何樂不為?安全的台灣是經濟繁榮、民主體制的重要基石!
以下為《日經亞洲新聞》東京報導
Taro Aso calls island contingency a potential 'threat to survival'
TOKYO — If China invades Taiwan, Tokyo may interpret the move as a “threat to Japan’s survival” and deploy the Self-Defense Forces to exercise collective self-defense, Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said Monday.
“If a major incident happened [in Taiwan], it would not be strange at all if it touches on a situation threatening survival,” Aso said during a speech in Tokyo. “If that is the case, Japan and the U.S. must defend Taiwan together.”
新聞連結:https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/Japan-s-No.-2-raises-possibility-of-joining-US-in-defending-Taiwan
survival island 在 國立臺灣大學 National Taiwan University Facebook 的精選貼文
【國立臺灣大學 109學年度畢業典禮 貴賓致詞】
Commencement Address, National Taiwan University Commencement 2021
.
巨大集團 羅祥安前執行長
Giant Group Former CEO Anthony Lo
管校長,羅副校長,各位貴賓,畢業生的家長跟朋友們,還有今天最重要的2021年臺大的畢業生,大家早安、大家好!
首先恭喜你們,今天從全世界最優秀大學之一的臺灣大學畢業了!
在過去幾年,在管校長,以「大學教改」和「國際化」的理念,率領全體師生的努力之下,臺大在全世界的能見度,和各項排名,都有顯著的進步,也讓身為校友的我們倍感光榮。
是不是我們大家一起鼓掌,給自己鼓勵一下好不好!
你們今天剛剛畢業,但是你們已經創造了臺大一項新的紀錄:第一次,沒有傳統畢業典禮的畢業生。這將是你們人生一個非常特別的回憶,也預表了你們未來將會有與眾不同的表現,和非凡的成就。
現在的世界,局勢是在東方跟西方的勢力,彼此對抗而動盪不安。而全世界的經濟活動,也因為科技的突破性創新,而受到很大的影響。不盡理想的、不盡公平的全球化,也將逐漸地變成 全球在地化。而COVID-19肆虐全球的結果,使得臺灣跟全世界,大家的生活型態、社會的結構、經濟活動的節奏都被打亂了,而必須要加以全面的整理跟重新的架構。這當然是一個危機,但是更是一個絕好的機會。所以,將你們迎面而來的,是無數的創新的機會,以及冒險卻令人興奮的全新挑戰。
因為臺灣,這是第一次跟全世界各個國家,同步的站在一個嶄新的共同起跑點上面。所以我要恭喜你們,你們躬逢其會,將要進入一個充滿希望、嶄新的時代。
我是1969年從臺大畢業的,所以我想今天就以我畢業之後的50多年,人生的一些學習和體會,來跟諸位分享,給諸位作個參考。
當我大學畢業的時候,我滿懷抱負,迫不及待地想要大展身手,我當時進入臺灣最大的貿易公司工作,但是我發現我所學的很多東西,只有一些國際貿易的實務跟英文有用,至於其他我所學習到的經營管理的很多知識,恐怕都要等到10年、20年之後,如果我有幸當上高級主管才能派上用場。
更諷刺的是,我是商學系畢業的,但是工作兩年後,我發現我真的不喜歡做商人,我也不喜歡做生意,我有興趣的是做事業。
後來,幸好我有聆聽我心裡面的微弱的聲音,決定踏進自行車業,放棄掉台北最好的貿易公司的金飯碗,而去參加在大甲一個只有38個人的小公司,來追求我的夢想。
那時候許多人認為我腦筋有問題,頭殼壞去,但現在回顧回來,我當時是做了人生一個非常好的決定。
創業的過程飽受艱辛,但是我也學到了很多寶貴的經驗:我首先學到的,是在做事之前,必須要先學做人。
人必須要誠信踏實,不能自私自利,而要利他共好。
要隨時心存感恩,尊重、關切別人。要熱愛這個世界,並且要了解到一個人的能力是有限的,而必須要去建立互信、互助的人際關係;要融入群體、要發揮團隊的精神。
在做事方面,一定要以正面積極的態度,認真努力去工作。 而且不要怕失敗,要勇於接受新的挑戰。因為如果有失敗了,那只是代表說你又更靠近成功一步了。要作中學,學中作,要虛心好奇的終身學習,開拓挑戰、追求卓越。
在這裡,我想要送給大家一個很特別的畢業禮物,就是兩個「成功的錦囊」。
第一個錦囊:不管你做什麼工作,不論你職務的高低,永遠都要站在顧客的立場,來為他們設想,還能做什麼,讓他們能夠得到更多的創新價值。
第二個錦囊:無論作什麼工作,不管你職務的高低,永遠都要站在經營者的角度來為公司設想,要做什麼,才能讓公司更健康,永續經營跟發展。
既使你們把我後面講的很多東西都忘記了,沒關係,但是這個畢業禮物你們一定要記得帶回去,因為這些「同理心」的兩個錦囊,在未來會給你們帶來意想不到的祝福!
其次我體會到,名跟利都是副產品。正產品是你成為什麼樣的人,成就什麼樣的事。當正產品是對的時候,名跟利都自然會來。
所以我鼓勵大家在找工作的時候,不要太計較開始的薪水和待遇。因為事實上,一個新人,在前面三年是很難有大的貢獻的,反過來只是公司發薪水來給你培訓而已。所以選擇一個有意義的行業,找一家你可以學習進步的好公司,這才是重要的。
第三,我學習到 知識不等於智慧。諸位都學有專精,有很多寶貴的知識,但這些知識必須要實際去做才能夠產生經驗,而累積的時候會有不同經驗的反省、學習、跟體會,尤其是從那些失敗的經 驗,才能夠漸漸地凝結成有用的智慧。
我的成長過程分成三段,開始我是一個「I」型的人,我擁有一些經營管理的基本的能力。後來因為工作的需要和我的好奇心,我漸漸地學習到技術開發、製造生產、品牌推廣、全球經營、以及行銷、服務等等寶貴的經驗,這樣漸漸地,我就形成一個「T」型的一個跨界的人才。但是到了我真正找到公司未來的使命跟方向,並且把它跟我的人生目標結合在一起,熱情的、積極去推動的時候,那時候我終於成為一個「十字架」型的一個領導者。
當公司發展得比較穩定之後,我就面臨要如何來替公司規劃願景、使命、定位,跟長期策略。在這個階段,我有一些新的體會:首先,你必須要能夠畫出一個「黃金正三角形」,正三角形是最穩定的,上面是戰略,中間是戰術,下面是戰鬥。先要有正確的戰略,才能衍伸出有效的戰術,再根據這個戰術去貫徹戰鬥的執行。換言之,戰略就是做對的事情,戰術就是對的方法,戰鬥就是用對的方法去把事情做對做好,並且不斷地去持續改善。
想要能夠思考出長期的戰略,就必須要有洞察力。
我很喜歡看地球儀,就是那種在一個架子上面,有一個可以轉動的地球模型。當你把地球轉動的時候,你看到上面每一個地方、每一個國家,它的地理位置、它的自然生態,以及你思考它的歷史的演變跟它的發展,這樣子你就能夠得出一個整體的,跟全方位的一個概念。
在思考長期戰略的時候,很不容易得出一個有突破性的一個創見,它的原因往往是因為「當局者迷」的關係。
所以當我考慮長期戰略的時候,我會把自己設想,好像從一個人造衛星上面,來觀看一個轉動的地球。以宇宙格局的高度,以全球視野的廣度,以歷史演進的長度,這樣子你就能夠以一個「旁觀者清」的姿態和角度,來正面、反面深入思考,這樣子你就可能得到一個突破性的一個解答。「世界的捷安特」跟「全球在地化」的品牌經營—這樣子的策略、願景就是這樣產生的。
另外一種洞察力,是如何推出給人們有創新價值的產品跟服務。這就要時時地站在人文跟科技的十字路口,仔細觀察它們的變化,然後活用科技的進步,為人文潛在的需求,適時地提供最佳的解決方案。捷安特的Cycling世界,就是用這種方法,不斷的推出創新價值的產品。
我們在經營上也有發展出一個特別的理念,那就是「不求第一,要作惟一」。全世界的人這麼多,但沒有兩個人的指紋是一樣的, 所以每一個人都是獨一無二、都是惟一的。可見當上帝造每一個人的時候,祂都有衪特別的計劃,而且也把成功所需要的能力跟要素,已經放在你的心中,等待你取用。所以每一個人不應該只是模仿別人,或者是按照別人的期望來生活,而應該要找出並且發揮自己的天賦,真正做自己,成為惟一,才能夠活出精采的生命。
企業也是一樣,不能隨波逐流,必須要找出什麼才是對的,什麼是合適你的,什麼才是有意義、對這個世界有貢獻的,這個才是惟一。當你精益求精,努力的想要成為惟一的時侯,你才能夠找到真正正確的目標,以及永續生存的價值。如果事事都想為第一,那麼你可能去追求很多不切實際的目標,而被你無法承受的巨大壓力所摧毀。或者,因為不擇手段,最後走上一些錯誤的道路。
在長期追求惟一的過程當中,我也得到兩個重要的體會:當你決心做一件對的事情,而且不屈不撓,勇敢堅持奮鬥的時候,全宇宙的力量都會起來幫助你。另外,把一件有意義的事情,用生命的力量把它作好,你就有可能改變這個世界!
我鼓勵你們,聆聽你們內心深處的微小的聲音,讓它引導你們,去尋找到你們的天賦,了解你們的命定。
不求第一,要作惟一。做你真正的自己,成為惟一。活出你精彩的生命,享受你幸福的人生!
很多人說,生長在臺灣的人,一輩子裡面一定要完成三項挑戰:登玉山、泳渡日月潭、還有騎自行車環島。我覺得這非常有道理。所以我建議大家在畢業以後,在去當兵、就業之前,不妨參加一個自行車環島的旅行團,用九天的時間,仔細的去體會、欣賞寶島臺灣的美好,用自行車的輪胎去親吻,這塊生你長你的美麗大地,就當作是送給你自己的一個畢業禮物吧!
那教授們跟家長們,可能會想說,啊!太可惜了,我畢業的時候沒有騎自行車環島,我現在已經五六十歲了。沒關係,你這個年紀正好來從事人生的壯遊。
我們臺大的校長-管校長,在今年的一月份,就勇敢的完成他夢寐以求的自行車環島的壯遊。我們給管爺一個掌聲好不好?
有人認為臺灣很小、沒有前途,真的是這樣嗎?世界經濟論壇每年都要把全世界的國家的實力做一個調查跟排名。讓我們來看一下臺灣的排名。全世界有235個國家,就面積來講,我們排名第137;就人口來講,第57;就經濟體來講,第21;就整體競爭力來講,排名第11;而創新力,臺灣排名第4。沒錯,臺灣的確不大,但是我們很強,我們可以很有前途!
可預見的,未來的世界將會成為美、歐、亞三區鼎力的這個新局面。就像三個圓圈,各自都以自己的利益為優先,並且彼此長期的競爭、對抗和抵制,但是同時又不得不相互的維持一些必要的連結。而在每一個圈裡面,它將持續的有很多劇烈的改變,就像一個暴風圈一樣。而這三個暴風圈連結在一起,就形成一個所謂完全風暴PERFECT STORM。
最近經濟學人雜誌,把臺灣當作封面,稱臺灣為地球上最危險的地方,但同時又是科技業最關鍵的地方。我個人倒認為,未來臺灣可能是處在一個最有利的地位,就在那三個暴風圈中間的那個颱風眼,也就是這三個圈圈彼此連結交會的中心點。這個地方看起來好像危險,其實是最安全、最有利、又是最關鍵的地方。
當三個暴風圈無可避免的,參與在一個長期的競爭、對抗、跟抵制-這樣一個零和的賽局裡面。那臺灣並不屬於任何一個圈圈,也不需要去參與這些競爭、對抗跟抵制。而可以去想說,我可以在這個關鍵的中心點,替這個世界來提供什麼樣子的創新價值的貢獻。
臺灣過去50年的努力累積了很多技術開發、製造管理、金融資本,社會資源,以及民主法治體制,這些稀有而寶貴的實力。而且如果以全世界作為舞台,那麼,能夠精通中文跟英文、能夠深切的了解東方西方的文化;有專業,又能跨界,謙卑而不自卑,自信而不自大的臺灣人,可能是全世界最優秀的人才。
未來無法被預測,但是可以被創造!30年前,有誰能夠預測到說臺灣會產生世界級的台積電跟捷安特?
台積電秉持著作惟一的理念,以全球晶圓代工的戰略,厚植實力,打造了優質高效的供應鏈,把臺灣變成一個科技島。以臺灣為核心,轉動引領全世界的半導體市場。
捷安特也秉持著作惟一的理念,以世界的捷安特,全球在地化的品牌戰略,帶領A-Team把臺灣變成全世界高級車的中心,又積極的推動Cycling的新文化,把臺灣發展成一個自行車島,以臺灣為核心,轉動引領全世界自行車的市場。
在這裡我也期許我們臺大,也能夠以作惟一這樣子的理念,轉動引領世界,變成全世界最優秀人才培養的最佳搖籃。
未來的50年,臺灣將迎來前所未有最大的機運!所以臺灣是不是應該要脫離過去單純競爭的心態,而來積極的謀求長期的未來生存之道,或者更進一步要問自己:臺灣可以為世界貢獻些什麼?臺灣不應該只是消極的「根留臺灣」,而應該更主動積極的「放眼全球、立足亞太、深根臺灣」。
臺灣過去的50年,那是一個非常艱辛跟特別的階段。很慶幸的,臺灣在那個階段裡面,是屬於勝利的這一組。
現在是應該到了必須要了解過去、深入現在、策劃未來,這個重要關鍵的時刻。要如何的以宇宙格局的高度、以全球視野的廣度、以及歷史演進的長度,衡外情,量己力,來為臺灣重新的定位,重新畫一個正確的戰略、戰術、戰鬥的黃金三角形。讓臺灣能夠真正發揮自己的長處,能夠打造創新價值的優勢,成為惟一、做Only One!要能夠創造一個更安全、更廣闊、更興盛-全新的藍海。臺灣必須要成為世界的好公民,繼續的為全世界做更多、更好的貢獻!
2021的畢業生們,在你們當中有未來國家的領導人、有全球企業的創造者、有在社會各行各業、方方面面的核心人才,所以臺灣未來50年的未來,就掌握在你們手中了。
最後,我想用一位著名科學家的名言來作結尾: Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving. 人生就像騎自行車,要保持你平衡最好的方法,就是繼續不斷地向前進。
你知道這是誰的名言嗎? 沒錯,就是愛因斯坦!
2021的畢業生們,請你騎上你人生的自行車,勇敢的向前邁進,去開創你獨一無二、精彩無比的新生命跟未來。再一次,恭喜你們,並且祝福你們每一位,將來都能夠有健康、幸福、精彩跟有意義的人生!
謝謝!
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President Kuan, Executive Vice President Luo, Distinguished guests, family, friends, and most importantly, the graduating class of 2021, good morning!
First of all, congratulations! Today, you are graduating from one of the best universities in the world – National Taiwan University!
Over the last few years, President Kuan led the university forward with his vision of “educational reform” and internationalization”. Together with all the faculty and students, NTU has made significant progress in both ranking and global visibility, making us, alumni, extremely proud.
I think we deserve to give ourselves a round of applause!
You are the graduating class of 2021 and already, you have set a new record for NTU: For the first time, there will not be a traditional graduation ceremony. Let this be a very special memory of your life and a sign of the difference you will make in your future with extraordinary achievements.
The world is now in a volatile state where the East and the West are confronting each other. The world’s economic activities are also greatly affected by the breakthrough and innovations in technology. The less-than-ideal and less-than fair globalization will gradually become global localization. And as a result of COVID-19, Taiwan and the rest of the world’s lifestyle, social structure, and economy have been disrupted, and must be comprehensively reorganized and restructured. This is certainly a crisis, but in the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity. So, what lies before you are countless opportunities for innovation, and exciting new challenges.
Because, for the first time, Taiwan is standing with the rest of the world on a new race-track. Therefore, I would like to congratulate you, you are entering a new era full of hope.
I graduated from NTU in 1969. It has been more than 50 years and today, I would like to share some of my life experiences and insights.
When I graduated from college, I was filled with ambition. I couldn’t wait to make my mark. I joined one of the largest trading companies in Taiwan, where I quickly realized the only materials I learned in school that came in handy are a little bit of international trade practices and English. Much of what I had learned about business management would only be relevant 10 or 20 years down the road, if I was lucky enough to become a senior executive.
What’s even more ironic is that I graduated with a degree in business, but after working for 2 years, I realize I really don’t like being a businessman, and I don’t like doing business. What I am actually interested in is building an enterprise.
Fortunately, I chose to listen to the faint voice in my heart and decided to enter the bicycle industry. I left my position at the best trading company in Taipei to join a small company with only 38 employees in Dajia to pursue my dream.
At the time, many people thought I must’ve broken my skull and gone crazy, but looking back, I have made a great decision in my life.
The process of starting my own enterprise has been very difficult, but I have learned many valuable lessons. The first thing I learned is that before you can do anything else, you have to learn to be a person of good character.
We must be honest, down to earth, selfless, self-serving, and altruistic for the common good.
Be grateful, respectful and caring at all times. To love the world and to understand that one person’s ability is limited and that is necessary to build interpersonal relationships of mutual trust and support; to be part of a group and to play as a team.
When it comes to work, you must work hard with a positive attitude. And don’t be afraid to fail, be brave enough to accept new challenges. Because every time you fail, it just means you are one step closer to success. Learning is an active process. We learn by doing. We must stay open-minded and curious, aspiring to lifelong learning; to explore challenges and pursue excellence.
Here I would like to give everyone a special graduation gift, which are my two tips for success:
First, always put yourself in the customer’s shoes, regardless of what you’re doing or what kind of job title you hold. Think for them, think about what else you can do to create more value for the customers.
Second, regardless of what you’re doing or what kind of job title you hold, always think about the company from the proprietor’s point of view; what can we do to build a healthier company that’s sustainable.
Even if you are going to forget everything I say later, that’ ok. Just remember to take your graduation gift at heart, because these two tips on “empathy “are sure to bring you unexpected blessings in the future!
Later on, I realized that fame and money are merely byproducts. The real product is you, what kind of person you have become and what have you achieved. When the real product is identified, fame and money will come naturally.
So I encourage you, when you look for a job, don’t be too concerned about the starting salary and benefits. Because as a matter of fact, as a newcomer, it is very difficult to make a big contribution in the first three years, so really the company is paying to give you training instead. So choose a meaningful industry and find a good company where you can improve and grow, that’s what’s important.
Thirdly, I learned that knowledge is not the same as wisdom. All of you have learned a lot and have a lot of valuable knowledge, but this knowledge must be practiced in order to produce experience, and in the process of accumulation, there will be different experiences of reflection, learning and empathy, especially from failure, slowly and surely all these experiences will be condensed into useful wisdom.
My personal development can be divided into three stages. I began as a I-shaped person with some basic skills in business management. Later on, due to my job and curiosity, I gained respected experience in technology development, manufacturing, branding, global marketing, and service and thus gradually becoming a T-shape multidisciplinary professional.
However, when I combined the future mission and direction of the company with my life goals, promoting it enthusiastically and actively, that is when I finally became a X-shape transdisciplinary leader.
Once the company became more stable, I was faced with the challenge of planning the vision, mission, positioning, and long-term strategy for the company. At this stage, I had some new insights.
First, you must be able to draw a “golden triangle”, an equilateral triangle is the most stable shape with strategy on top, tactics in the middle, and operations at the bottom. In other words, the strategy is to do the right thing, the tactics is the using the right methods, and operations is using the right methods to excel on doing the right things while constantly improving them.
To develop long-term strategies, it is necessary to have insight.
I enjoy looking at the globe, yes, the spherical model of Earth that sits on a stand and can be rotated. When you rotate the globe, you can see every place and country on it, its geographical location, its natural ecology, and you can think about its historical evolution and development, so that you can come up with an overall comprehensive concept.
When thinking about long-term strategy, it is not easy to come up with a groundbreaking idea, because “men are often blind in their own cause”
Therefore, when I think about long-term strategy, I imagine myself as if I were looking at a rotating Earth from a man-made satellite. With the height of the universe, the breadth of global vision and the length of historical evolution, you will be able think about it from the perspective of an observer, and then you may have a breakthrough. This is how the strategy and vision of “GIANT for the World” and “glocalization” brand management came about.
Another kind of insight is how to introduce the products and services to create additional value to people. This requires standing at the crossroads of humanity and technology, observing their changes carefully, and then using technological advances to provide the best solutions for the potential needs of humanity in a timely manner. This is how GIANT’s Cycling World continues to introduce innovative values to its products.
We have also developed a special philosophy in our business, which is “don’t be the first one, be the only one”. There are so many people in the world, but no two people share the same fingerprints, making each person unique and one of a kind. God created each person with purpose and has gifted us with the abilities and elements needed for success. All of which is in your heart, waiting for you to take them. Therefore, we should not just follow each other’s footstep or live under the expectations of someone else. Instead, we should find and give reigns to our talents, to truly be ourselves, to become the only one and live a brilliant life.
The same applies to businesses, you can’t just go with the flow, we must find what is right and suitable and what is meaningful and contributive to the world, this is what it means to be the only one. When you strive for excellence and strive to be the only one, you will find the right goals and the value of sustainability. If you try to be first in everything, you may pursue many unrealistic goals and either be destroyed by unbearable pressure or resort to doing whatever it takes, and end up on the wrong path.
I have learned two important lessons in my long quest to be the “only one”. When you are determined to do the right thing and you are unyielding and persistent in your struggle, the power of the universe will rise up and help you. In addition, if you do something meaningful and do it well with the power of life, you may change the world.
I urge you to listen to the small voice deep within you and let it guide you to find your talents and understand your destiny.
Do not seek to be the first but to be the only. Be true to yourself and be the only one. Live your life to the fullest and enjoy your life to the fullest!
Many people say that growing up in Taiwan, you must complete three challenges in your lifetime: climb to the top of Jade Mountain, swim across Sun Moon Lake, and ride a bike around the island. I think this is very true. Therefore, I suggest that after graduation, before you go to the military or get a job, you might as well join a bicycle tour around the island and spend nine days to carefully experience and appreciate the beauty of Taiwan. As a graduation gift to yourself, let the tires kiss the beautiful land where you were born and raised.
All the professors and parents must be thinking in regret, “Ah! Too bad! I didn’t ride my bike around the island when I graduated and now I’m already in my 50s and 60s…” But that’s okay! You are actually at the perfect age to start your adventurous life.
Our President of NTU, President Kuan bravely completed his dream bike tour around the island in January this year. Let’s give President Kuan a round of applause!
Some people think that Taiwan is small and has no future. Every year, the World Economic Forum conducts a survey and ranking of the strength of countries around the world. Let’s take a look at Taiwan’s ranking. There are 235 countries in the world and we rank 137th in terms of landmass, 57th in terms of population, 21st in terms of economy, 11th in terms of overall competitiveness, and 4th in terms of innovation. It’s true that Taiwan is not big, but we are strong and we have a promising future.
In the foreseeable future there will become a new situation in which the United States, Europe and Asia will be the three focal regions. Just like three circles, each of which prioritizes its own interests and is in long-term competition, confrontation and resistance, but at the same time has to maintain some necessary links with each other. And in each circle, drastic changes will be endless, just like a storm circle. These three storm circles are linked together to form a so-called PERFECT STORM.
The Economist magazine recently featured Taiwan on its cover, calling it the most dangerous place on earth, but at the same time the most critical place for the technology industry. Personally, I think that Taiwan may be in the most favorable position in the future, right in the middle of the three storm circles, the eye of the typhoon, which is the center point where these three circles are connected. This place seems dangerous, but in fact it is the safest, most favorable, and most critical place.
When the three storm circles are inevitably involved in a long-term competition, confrontation, and boycott - a zero-sum game. Taiwan does not belong to any of these circles, nor does it need to participate in these competitions, confrontations, and boycotts. Instead, situated in this critical position, I should begin to think about what kind of innovative value I can provide to the world.
Taiwan's efforts over the past 50 years have accumulated many rare and valuable strengths in technology development, manufacturing management, financial capital, social resources, and the democratic rule of law system. If the world is our stage, Taiwanese people who are proficient in Chinese and English, who have a deep understanding of Eastern and Western cultures, who are professional, who can cross borders, who are humble but not inferior, and who are confident but not arrogant, may be the best talents in the world.
The future cannot be predicted, but it can be created! 30 years ago, who could have predicted that Taiwan would produce globally renowned TSMC and GIANT?
TSMC is committed to the concept of being the only one, and has built up its strengths with its global foundry strategy, creating a high-quality and efficient supply chain and turning Taiwan into a technology island. With Taiwan as the core, TSMC is leading the worldwide semiconductor market.
GIANT also upholds the concept of "Be the only one" and leads the A-Team to turn Taiwan into the center of the world's premium bikes with the brand strategy of globalization and localization, and actively promotes the new culture of cycling, developing Taiwan into a cycling island and leading the world's cycling market with Taiwan as the core.
Here I also hope that we, NTU, can also lead the world with the concept of being the only one, and become the best cradle for the cultivation of the best talents in the world.
In the next 50 years, Taiwan will have the greatest opportunity ever! Therefore, Taiwan should get rid of the simple competitive mentality of the past and actively seek the long-term survival of the future, or go even further and ask itself: What can Taiwan contribute to the world? Taiwan should not just "secure Taiwan" in a conservative way, but should be more proactive with global outlook and establish a foothold in the Asia Pacific.
The last 50 years, for Taiwan, has been very difficult and significant. Fortunately, Taiwan pulled through and came out as one of the winners.
Now is the crucial moment to understand the past, delve into the present, and plan for the future. We must take the height of the universe, the breadth of our global vision, and the length of historical evolution, weigh the external situation, and measure our own strengths to reposition Taiwan and draw the golden triangle of strategy, tactics, and operations. Taiwan should be able to give full play to its strengths, create innovative value, and become the only one! Taiwan must become a good citizen of the world and continue to make more and better contributions to the world!
Graduates of 2021, among you are the future leaders of the country, the creators of global enterprises, and the core talents in all walks of life, the future is in your hands.
Finally, I would like to conclude with a quote from a famous scientist: Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
Do you know who this quote belongs to? That's right, Einstein!
Graduates of 2021, please get ready for your life adventure, get on your bikes and peddle courageously forward to create your own unique and exciting future. Again, congratulations and best wishes to each and every one of you for a healthy, happy, and meaningful life!
Thank you!
詳見:
https://www.facebook.com/NTUCommencement/posts/2718162161807541
.
#臺灣大學 #畢業典禮 #NTUCommencement2021 #貴賓致詞 #羅祥安
survival island 在 ナスDの大冒険YouTube版 Youtube 的最佳貼文
史上最強の無人島へと
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そこには…⁉︎
そして今回の動画は
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もう少し早くできる様、努力して参ります。
では、ナスDの大冒険YouTube版#66
「最強の無人島に到着」編
お楽しみ頂ければ幸いです。
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9:20 第二日
16:51 第三日
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24:51 第五日
32:45 第六日
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The latest action movie "The Return of the King of Survival Island ". 125K views 1 month ago. VSO影視獨播VSO Film & TV Official Channel. ... <看更多>