🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
travel go評價 在 [資訊] 不要再用第三方網站購買機票了- 看板Korea_Travel 的推薦與評價
分享一下我13日(五)與16日(一)所學到的寶貴教訓。
凡是非官網上購買的機票皆視為第三方網站購買(ex:Trip.com, Ctrip...)，
自己是在Trip.com這個網站中招啦，用從skyscanner入口進去的。
星期五晚上購買機票桃園到釜山來回，濟州航空去+釜山航空回，
當晚就收到Trip.com預訂票完成的通知(有收到電子行程、收據、信用卡扣款)，
本以為一切無事，準備到時候拿著那個電子行程去登機，
但由於本身喜歡在出發前100%的確定，所以去航空公司官網查詢我的票，
想知道是不是真的有出票成功，但是兩家航空公司都顯示查不到我的機票，
這下我更不安了，又從網路上得知可以打去航空公司客服請他們幫忙確認。
今天一早先打釜山航空台灣客服，給他我從電子行程上看到的Ticket Number，
但是他說要是13碼的機票號碼才能幫我查詢，怪了，我翻來翻去就是找不到13碼的數字，
撥打Trip.com台灣客服，總是忙線中無人接聽，後來上Trip.com的網站，
找他們線上的文字客服，才問出了我的13碼機票號碼。
再打釜山航空台灣客服，終於有查到我的機票，但是好險這位客服很細心，
他問機票是我本人的嗎？因為他看到稱謂是MS，但我應該要是MR才對，
天啊，可是Trip.com給我的行程跟收據上面所顯示的稱謂都是對的啊，
再度詢問Trip.com的文字客服，果然如我所料，他們說資料是對的，請我安心登機，
怎麼可能安心，航空公司客服看到就是錯的。
再問釜山航空客服，他說稱謂錯誤他無法修改，控制權在韓國方，
要我寫英文email或是打去韓國請他們修正。
我無法忍受用mail還要等待的時間，只好硬著頭皮直接撥去韓國，
當然是全韓語發音，好險我聽得出來跟台灣一樣按9轉客服人員，
客服人員接起來發現我說英文，立刻叫我等候，轉接後是個英文的客服人員，
一樣對了一些基本的個資之後幫我做修改，也說會寄電子機票到我的email，
我特別詢問需要收取額外的費用嗎？他再次跟我確認我的英文姓名，
因為是對的，同一個人，所以改稱為不用收費。
跟韓國客服通完電話大約下午2點，等了一個小時，始終收不到我的電子機票，
又打去台灣客服請他幫忙確認，他看到稱謂已更改了，
但email address最後少了個.tw，難怪我一直無法收到，請他幫忙寄給我，
終於在下午3點的時候收到了釜山航空寄來的全英文版正確的電子機票。
濟州航空好險有設立台灣客服了，下午打去請他們幫忙查詢，
一樣是要我提供代碼，我告訴的我在行程上看到的唯一很像代碼的英文F....G，
他說那個是旅行社代碼，心裡正想完蛋了，又沒有看到機票代碼了，
他很好心的問我出發日期跟英文姓名，確實有查到我的電子機票，
我特別請他幫我看稱謂，是MR沒錯，他也很好心的說可以寄給我，
很慶幸濟州航空的機票沒出問題。
終於在下午都收到了兩間航空公司的電子機票，應該可以順利登機了吧......!!!
從這次的經驗可以看出：
1. Trip.com看到的跟航空公司客服看到的不一定是相同的，當然以航空公司客服為準
2. Trip.com台灣客服很難打，文字客服講話很官方，只會告訴你沒有問題請安心登機
3. 第三方網站上購買的機票無法在官網上查詢得到，必須要致電客服才能查詢，很麻煩
(看了推文好像有些人是可以在官網上使用的，我自己遇到的情況是不能啦，
我把這一部份說死了好像不太好，就看個人遇到的情況了，僅附上客服給我
的回信答覆。
4. Trip.com寄給你的電子行程很奇怪，不像一般的電子機票，還是打去客服確認跟請
他們寄給你電子機票會比較好一些
5. 花了我7分半鐘的國際通話費，再加上我的勞心勞力，沒有比官網買還要便宜
6. 請愛用官網買機票
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Korea_Travel/M.1523893501.A.082.html
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