ทำไม มาตรการ QE ของสหรัฐ ไม่ทำให้เกิดเงินเฟ้อ ขั้นรุนแรง /โดย ลงทุนแมน
Quantitative Easing หรือที่เรียกสั้นๆ ว่า QE
คือเครื่องมือหนึ่ง ที่ธนาคารกลาง ใช้ในการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ
โดยการอัดฉีดเงิน เพื่อเพิ่มสภาพคล่องให้ระบบเศรษฐกิจ ในภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว
...Continue ReadingWhy U.S. QE measures don't cause severe inflation / by investman
Quantitative Easing aka QE
Is one tool that central banks use to stimulate the economy.
By pumping money to increase liquidity for the economic system in slowing economic progress.
But the result that many people worry about is.
Amount of money will rise in the economic system which will bring inflation.
And may be severe to severe inflation aka ′′ Hyperinflation
We have seen many countries do QE hard.
Will this lead to severe inflation in the future?
Investing man will try to analyse it.
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First, let's understand the meaning of Hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a condition where product prices rise quickly.
Makes the country's money value go down dramatically
Why the value of money goes down
As a result, lots and lots of money flowing into the economy.
Compared to the same amount of goods and services in the economic system.
Price increases product prices quickly
An example of past severe Hyperinflation incident.
Such as in Hungary and Venezuela
Hyperinflation in Hungary happened in 1946
During that time, Hungary was heavily damaged by WWI.
Especially various infrastructure systems.
The Hungarian Government has shortage of budgets in economic revival.
So I decided to print a lot of money to repair the city's home and stimulate the economy.
Making money in Hungary's system is increasing tremendously.
As much as the amount of money increases, the domestic products are still the same.
So it makes inflation rise quickly
Hungary average product prices increase to 2 times in 15 hours.
By the moment of Hyperinflation
Hungary inflation rate rises to 150,000 % within one day.
Venezuela part of year 2019
Venezuelan inflation rises to 10,000,000
The cause of this story is similar to the case of Hungary
Well there is excessive economic system injection
Both to stimulate a slowing economy from low petrol prices.
Including to use for government's populist policies
We'll see that all 2 events have one thing in common.
Well there is a huge economic system injection.
Which leads to hyperinflation
Back at present COVID crisis-19
Many countries have measures to stimulate the economy.
With lots of money pumping into the economic system
US Central Bank
Using unlimited amount of QE measures
From the original designated price of about 22 trillion baht per year.
Central Bank of Japan
It's another country that uses unlimited amount of QE measures.
From the original designated, about 24 trillion baht per year.
European Central Bank announces more projects
In acquisition of emergency assets worth over 27 trillion baht.
It will see that many countries are now pumping a lot of money into the system.
And in many countries, I used to do heavy QE before.
For example, the case of the USA.
There has been a lot of money pumping into the economic system in the past 10 years.
Since the 2008 US Real Estate Bubble crisis.
Interesting is that US inflation rates aren't adjusted to much higher like the cases of Hungary and Venezuela.
2010 US average inflation rate equates to 1.6 %
2019 US average inflation rate equates to 1.8 %
Japan is another country where xỳāng h̄nạk measures are taken.
But inflation is still at low near 0 % as well.
Why is the story like this?
This phenomenon is partly because
US and Japan central banks make QE through asset purchases.
Both bonds, shares, loan from commercial banks.
And commercial banks are responsible for re-releasing money into the economy.
But what happens is that commercial banks don't forward the money they get from central banks.
To the business and household sector as everyone thought at first.
The cause is because during economic recession or slowdown.
Household sector tends to save money rather than bring money to spend.
Due to insecure future economic
For example, in USA.
The deposit amount in the COVID-19 pre-birth system is around 416 trillion baht.
But when COVID-19 goes viral, deposits in the system increase to almost 500 trillion baht.
Within just a few months
Meanwhile, a bad economic situation.
Making selling business sector products and services difficult.
Making production and service still very much available.
Business sector may not require a loan to expand business.
Enough demand for products and services doesn't increase higher.
Well, things don't go much higher.
Even with lots of money in the system
Another point is.
Countries with large economies like USA and Japan
Own the world's main currency with high credibility.
Most people still believe and still demand to hold these currency.
In conclusion, if you ask for QE making of big countries today.
Will it lead to severe inflation in the future?
I have to say that this problem can be difficult for big countries like USA and Japan.
But the point is, this plague crisis doesn't know when it ends.
And countries inject money log in
For a country which is economically stable as a big country, it might be careful.
Because those countries may have severe inflation, different from this case..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
-https://nomadcapitalist.com/2014/04/20/top-5-worst-cases-hyperinflation-history/
-https://www.businessinsider.com/hungarys-hyperinflation-story-2014-4
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela
-https://www.thestreet.com/investing/federal-reserve-unveils-unlimited-qe-to-confront-coronavirus
-https://www.schroders.com/en/bm/asset-management/insights/economic-views/bank-of-japan-ramps-up-qe-again-amid-dismal-outlook/
-https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
-https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/inflation/core-consumer-prices-hold-steady-in-june-in-annual-terms
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202006_eurosystemstaff~7628a8cf43.en.html#toc3
-https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2900/inflation/inflation-and-quantitative-easing/
-https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOGTranslated
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過12萬的網紅一二三渡辺,也在其Youtube影片中提到,私の従姉妹の結い納品です、 この2月に結婚します、 おめでとう、 結納品 結納品として用いられる物も地域によって多種多様である。結納品にはそれぞれめでたい意味づけがなされている。結納品は水引で豪華に飾られ、一式で数万円から数十万円がかけられる。おおまかに関東と関西でその内容が異なる。...
used goods meaning 在 Yim Mau-Kun Studio 冉茂芹畫室 Facebook 的最佳貼文
這是早期剛到香港時畫的一幅外銷畫。 剛從內地到香港時,身無分文,必需馬上投入工作。 倒是好,香港在七十年代發展起一種外銷油畫的新行業,大陸初到香港的畫家、美院畢業生接觸到的第一種工作幾乎就是這種「外銷畫」。 這種畫其實細分畫照片人像、臨摹歐洲古典油畫(印刷品)或是一個樣版大量複製的油畫。 前種單價當然高些,但費工費時,尤其對於初次接觸的人實在是一大考驗! 僅憑一張印刷品,要將它放大到十多倍並畫成油畫。 很多人無法達到品質要求,只好去畫量產的「行貨」。
This is one of first paintings I did after moving to Hong Kong from Mainland China in 1980. With nothing more than the clothes on my back when I moved to Hong Kong, I had to find a job right away. Fortunately, the trade in export oil paintings had emerged in Hong Kong during the 1970s. For nearly all painters and fine arts college graduates from China, this type of "export painting" became their first job in Hong Kong. Export paintings were further broken down into photo portraits, reproductions of European classical oil paintings (from prints), and mass-produced replicas of oil paintings. The former naturally commanded a higher unit price but took time and effort. To magnify a single print more than ten times in size and turn it into an oil painting was a tremendous challenge to those without any previous experience. Many people couldn't meet the quality requirements and so had no choice but to paint mass-produced "standard goods" instead.
這幅畫畫名是叫COQUETRY賣弄風情之意吧,畫工精緻、人物生動,也不知是歐洲哪位大師之作? 我用幻燈投影機放大輪廓,足不出戶地畫了一個星期。
This painting is called Coquetry, meaning to act in a flirtatious manner. The intricate brushwork and lifelike character were surely the work of some great European master. I used a projector to magnify the outlines then painted away at home for a whole week.
這一段的工作對我的繪畫藝術也有正面的意義,主要是對油畫肖像的描繪細節更留意。 這些磨練讓我在以後的寫生肖像中能更快地建立起了刻劃各種人物的能力和自信,但是,我也提醒自己,不要落入庸俗的「照片真實」之中。
This period did have a positive effect on my painting career because I paid more attention to the details in oil portraits. The experience gave me the skill and confidence to quickly depict all kinds of characters in live portraits later on. I did, however, remind myself not to fall into the trap of mundane photo-realism.
這種生命經歷既無可避免亦不可重來,善用經歷並將其化為自身的智慧才能把可能是愁苦的境況轉換成快樂之事。
Such experiences in life are unavoidable, nor can they be repeated. But if you turn that experience into your own skills and wisdom then you can find happiness in even the most depressing of circumstances.
used goods meaning 在 Oak Panthongtae Shinawatra Facebook 的最佳解答
ลองเข้าไปติดตามภาคภาษาอังกฤษได้ที่นี่นะครับ
Thaksin Shinawatra in Private Discussion
World Policy Institute Global Leader Briefing Series Thinking Points
World Policy Institute, 9th March 2016, New York
———————————————————
Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,
I must thank you World Policy Institute for providing me an opportunity to share my thought on the challenges that revolve around the economic, regional and global implications of how Thailand will make its way through a period of transition and change.
We all know that no society in the twenty-first century can sustain any form of “progress” in the well-being of its people without at least two basic foundations:
The first one is political stability. The second one is the ability to create economic activities that allow growth and readiness to shift its creativities to sustain wealth.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the tale of the two cities, which is not written by Charles Dickens. It is the tale of parallel progress of Washington D.C. and Beijing. Each has its own history, pain and loathing. As the years go by, the two cities have been seen as rivals which offers competing models for growth and prosperity.
One is Free Market-Capitalism with the so-called “Open Democracy” as the foundation of its economic model. The other one is State-Led Capitalism with the central control system by one party.
Both of the models have proven to be successful in a very dramatic way from the past to the present. Admitting that the Chinese model was fitting to the change of attitude among the leadership of the country at that time, in parallel with the change of economic model in the West, in which the definition of “free trade” benefits China’s shifting position from a close market to a semi-open market.
But we must admit also that both models are now having to adjust itself to the new reality; the reality of dramatic change in speed and character of technology for industrial production; the change from “a country-based product” to “network of global design, global sourcing,and global production for just one product”. This extraordinary change upends the “normal” internal economic adjustment of the country and made it very difficult to find a simple economic adjustment.
We must recognize that advancement in the wealth management technique and technology also upend the normal linkage between capital and changes in production. However, we probably agree, that one common threat for survival in this present so-called “New Normal” is either you have the ability and willingness to change or you don’t. Thailand, like the other countries, cannot get away from this New Normal in the international context.
Ladies and Gentleman,
There is a tale of a poor English teacher in China who soared to the list of the world’s wealthiest people. He neither built a big factory nor invested in any production facility. But, people paid for his service simply to reach the network of supply and demand on a grand scale. I believe, he must feel thank you to the internet.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Amid the global economic slowdown, the pattern of trade has significantly changed. Due to the development of information technology infrastructure and increasing number of population who is able to access to the internet, e-commerce has become a new engine that sustains growth for both developed and developing economies. According to UNCTAD’s report last year, the value of global business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce in 2013 exceeded $15 trillion USD. While global business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce still accounted for an estimated $1.2 trillion USD, this segment has grown at a rapid pace; especially in the Asia and Oceania region where B2C segment is expected to surge from 20 to 37 percent between 2013 to 2018. Due to the incremental growth of cross-border e-commerce trade, international postal deliveries of small packets and parcels have risen by 48 percent between 2011 to 2014 globally.
For both Asia and the West, I believe these numbers provide us with clues for the new growth opportunities where “access to networks” is the key: meaning, the networks of consumers and factors of production across geographical boundaries. Unlike the economy of twentieth century when “access to centers” is the rules of the game, today, businessmen who do not have big factories and are not the owners of multinational corporations, can manage to reach and satisfy the needs of their customers worldwide through networks of production and distribution with an assist of the new communication technology. Today’s economy is increasingly decentralized. Consumption and production are more and more dispersed. We could imagine that an American producers can sell their products online directly to consumers in the western part of China without having to spend business hours in Beijing or Shanghai. Vice versa, a Chinese producer can bypass New York to offer their products to customers in New England and Mid-Atlantic states. The network economy has provided the people, both in small and large businesses, with the ability to produce and access to consumers at lower costs. We, as a global community, must put special emphasis on how each country can invest and share risk with the people to create growth collectively.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Another tale is about the rebirth of a road that nobody cares since the Portuguese discovered a possible sea route from Europe to Asia. The Portuguese did offer an alternative trade route with substantial margins for the goods carried. Although you might lose half of the cargoes on the way, you still did not lose your shirt. Since the demand for spices were overwhelming, the merchant marines heavily charge everybody.
Ladies and Gentleman,
The heavy-load transport through the sea has been with us till now, and the land routes from Asia to Europe have been neglected. If the world’s economy is thriving like the good old days, probably, not so many people would be interested in finding an alternative in life. But, since the situation goes awry, I believe, any country should consider all possibilities.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Today, there are two major initiatives that, I think, have great potential to accelerate growth and leverage “quality of growth” that brought into being by the emergence of network economy. One is the China-led “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to develop transport and logistics connectivity encompassed some 60 countries, which include about 50 percent of the world’s GDP. And, the other is the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) between 12 Pacific Rim countries, which account for more than 40 percent of the world’s GDP. I have not seen these two initiatives as antagonistic, but rather a kind of two parallel processes that, at a certain point, will create mutual economic benefits for Asia and the West.
We must overcome the stereotype that perceive China and the US as merely the two opposing political superpowers. In reality, the economic development during the past decade has shown us how far these two major economies are interdependent. China is the largest foreign holder of US government securities with $1.24 trillion USD worth. With the total trade volume of $521 billion USD in 2014, the US is China’s biggest trade partner. Total US foreign direct investment (FDI) in China stood at $65.77 billion USD at the end of 2014, while the Chinese FDI in the US is estimated to have reach $11.9 billion USD.
Given this interdependence in mind, I believe Southeast Asia- the region that sits in between the two great initiatives of the two major economies- must put special emphasis on how to enhance the mutual economic benefits with its counterparts. For Southeast Asia in the twenty-first century, the geopolitics should be about how to reinforce the networks of wealth creation for the people that stretch across national and regional borders.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me tell you the last tale about a Thai restaurant. No matter how many times the master chef tries to teach his protege, the young man keeps making mistakes in mixing the ingredients. Customers are kept waiting, hungry and mad. Once the customers are served, half of them get diarrhea afterward. The moral of this tale is one must make the written recipe right.
Ladies and gentlemen,
While some people may underline the unique characteristics of Thailand in terms of its history and developmental path, the country itself cannot avoid to come to terms with the global challenges of the twenty-first century. For half a century, the Thai economy has incrementally integrated into global economy. Values of Thailand’s exports per GDP and FDI in the country have shown us clearly how far the growth of Thai economy has been interwoven with the fate of global economy.
Against this context, we shall consider Thailand’s draft constitution with a very simple question: will the latest draft constitution “enable” the country to grow and become stronger in the present world? Or, will the latest draft constitution provide Thailand with a sufficient institutional infrastructure for investment, production, cooperation, and businesses?
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Due to the framework set out by the latest draft constitution, it is difficult to foresee a government that is responsive to the people and the challenges of the twenty-first century. According to the new draft, the 200-seat upper house, or Senate, will be appointed by the so-called “experts”. The Senate will also have greater powers to block legislation. Regarding the Constitutional Court, its scope of jurisdiction will be expanded. The Court will have the power to examine cases based on petitions filed directly by individuals, without the requirement that an actual dispute being brought by political organs or other courts.
If we consider the doctrine of separation of powers as the foundation for growth and stability, the critical issue that we shall examine is whether the judicial power will trespass the provinces of legislature/ and executive or not? For a government to be able to manage the economy against the global slowdown, I do hope that there will be no over-enforcement of the judicial power. Experiences of several countries show us that, if unchecked, judicial review can be inappropriately used as “delaying tactic”; thus, in turn, become an impediment to economic policy implementation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I believe that the foundation for the country to create growth and prosperity is to build trust in the global community. The constitution shall protect the rule of law and provide at least a minimum level of freedom of speech that facilitates economic cooperation between the people and the global community. Trade and investment cannot flourish if there is no certain degree of confidence provided by the rule of law. Against the transition and change, Thailand must reevaluate its strength and weakness. The country shall find a sensible way to regain its political stability and economic dynamism. I have only proposed the way of how should we think of the phenomena that is the world today.
used goods meaning 在 一二三渡辺 Youtube 的精選貼文
私の従姉妹の結い納品です、
この2月に結婚します、
おめでとう、
結納品
結納品として用いられる物も地域によって多種多様である。結納品にはそれぞれめでたい意味づけがなされている。結納品は水引で豪華に飾られ、一式で数万円から数十万円がかけられる。おおまかに関東と関西でその内容が異なる。結納品の数は5品・7品・9品など奇数とされる。偶数は2で割れることから「別れる」ことに通じるため避けられる。
関西
関西では、結納品は新郎側から新婦側へ「納める」ものとされる。新郎側は、結納金の1割程度にあたる価格の結納品を用意する。結納品は一品ずつ白木の台に乗せられる。新婦側は新郎側へ、結納金の1割程度の額の金品を結納返しとして贈る。結納品は関東よりも豪華な物となる。家族書・親族書などが付されることもある。
* 熨斗(のし):関東の「長熨斗」と同じ。
* 末広(すえひろ) 関東の末広と同じ。
* 小袖料(こそでりょう):結納金を入れる(京都では「帯地料」、神戸では「宝金」という)。
* 結美和(ゆびわ):婚約指輪。
* 高砂(たかさご):尉(じょう。老翁。)と姥(うば。老婆。)の人形。年老いるまで仲睦まじくという意味。
* 寿留女(するめ):関東と同じ意味。
* 子生婦(こんぶ):関東と同じ意味。
* 松魚料(まつうおりょう):関東の「勝男武士」と同じ。
* 柳樽料(やなぎだるりょう):関東の「家内喜多留」と同じ。
It is my cousin younger sister's doing delivery of goods, it marries
in this February, and congratulations.
Betrothal presents goods
The thing used as a betrothal presents goods is various according to the region. A happy definition is performed to the betrothal presents goods respectively. The betrothal presents goods are gorgeously displayed with Japanese paper strings, and it is spent by the complete set. The content is roughly different in Kanto and Kansai. The number of betrothal presents goods is assumed to be an odd number such as five goods, seven goods, and nine goods. The even number is avoided because it runs from the crack by two to "Separate".
Kansai
The betrothal presents goods are assumed to be "Pay it" the one from the bridegroom side to the bride side in Kansai. The bridegroom side prepares the betrothal presents goods of the price that hits about 10 percent of the betrothal gift money. The betrothal presents goods are put on the stand of the plain wood by the article. The money and goods of the amount of the betrothal gift money of about 10 percent is assumed betrothal presents Cae doing to the bridegroom side and the bride side is presented. The betrothal presents goods become things that are more gorgeous than Kanto. The family writing and the relative writing, etc. might be fixed.
* The noshi (): It is same as "Length noshi" of Kanto.
* It is the same as fanning out of fanning out (placing fathom) Kanto.
* The small sleeve fee (angle): The betrothal gift money is put (It is said, "Tacaracane"
in "Sash cloth fee" and Kobe in Kyoto).
* Yumiwa (): Promise ring.
* ): Takasago ..(..(. Rouokina. )With(Nurse. Old woman. )..drinking.. doll. Meaning named aging Nacamutsmi.
* Hisashi Onna (dried cuttlefish): The same meaning as Kanto.
* Cou (seaweed): The same meaning as Kanto.
* The Matsuo fee (angle): It is same as "Samurai Katsuo" of Kanto.
* Yanagital fee (and): It is the same as "Home Kita" of Kanto.