本院最新經濟情勢報告今日出爐🍞，展望2021年，本院經濟所周雨田兼任研究員表示，「臺灣經濟內溫外熱，景氣將持續增溫」🔥預估全年實質經濟成長率GDP 5.05%
昨（27）日臺灣甫降回二級警戒⚠️。報告中也指出，6月三級警戒期間，零售業營業額年減13.26%，其中百貨公司、布疋及服飾品衰退近六成，餐飲業營業額則較去年同期驟降39.94%，衝擊我國民生產業，導致經濟活動低迷。但是，疫情若逐漸受控制，配合政府規畫振興措施，以及外送電子商務無接觸發展，下半年預計將出現疫情改善緩解後的消費反彈。
此外，今年上半年平均失業率為3.93%，惟時逢畢業潮與疫情演變效應，下半年失業情況仍不樂觀，預期2021年失業率約為3.95%。
不過，疫情也促進居家辦公、上課及企業數位化發展🎧，電子產品與資訊通信產品三角貿易動能強勁，傳產貨品受主要國家擴大基礎建設推升出口需求，而出口引申需求進一步帶動進口。世界主要經濟體大規模施打疫苗，將大幅推升全球消費動能與貿易量。
展望下半年，仍有幾點需要注意⚠️。周雨田表示，全球疫情變化莫測，疫苗接種普及程度不均，仍將牽動國內民生經濟，產業亦面臨氣候變遷影響缺水、缺電之風險，以及全球塞港、缺櫃、運價高漲的問題。除此之外，地緣政治風險持續，且須注意金融市場風險升高，美國寬鬆貨幣政策的緊縮對全球市場的震盪及長期通貨膨脹。
🔴完整報告：https://reurl.cc/9r9xzV
#經濟預測 #降級 #防疫不鬆懈 #繼續加油
In the first half of 2021, countries around the world made significant progress in vaccinating their respective populations against Covid-19 and consequently, European and American countries relaxed domestic controls which has started driving global market demand and pushing the world economy towards recovery. Benefiting from proliferation of emerging technology applications and contactless businesses, Taiwan's import and export trade continued to grow. The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter reached 8.92%. The epidemic broke out in mid-May, and the government raised the level of alert. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the government is actively promoting vaccination in order to effectively control the epidemic and support the growth momentum of consumption and foreign trade. The projected real economic growth rate for 2021 has been revised to 5.05%.
#2021TaiwanEconomicForecast
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