🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
dropped by意思 在 浩爾譯世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
【每日國際選讀】
#文末挑戰多益選擇題📝
今日香港,明日台灣
中國對台態度愈加強硬?
開啟「接收通知」和「搶先看」每天吸收雙語時事新知
來讀華爾街日報獨家
🔥 China Breaks With Taiwan Precedent, Omitting Call for ‘Peaceful’ Policy
中國打破慣例,對台灣政策未提「和平」字眼
- precedent 先例,前例,慣例
- omit 疏忽,遺漏;刪節,排除
🧐 Beijing dropped calls for pursuing peaceful ties or peaceful unification with Taiwan in an annual policy blueprint, breaking with nearly three decades of precedent in a sign that it is taking a tougher tack toward the self-ruled island.
北京在年度政策規劃中,放棄呼籲推動兩岸關係和平發展或和平統一,這一做法打破了近30年來的慣例,也表明當局對台灣將採取更為強硬的態度。
- drop calls for 這邊的drop是「放棄」之意,而calls則是「呼籲」,整個片語是指「放棄對…的呼籲」的意思。
- unification 統一
- tack 用風改變航向,在這指的是改變「方針、方向」
✏️ China’s yearly government work report, delivered to the legislature by Premier Li Keqiang on Friday, also reiterated the government’s commitment to “oppose and deter any separatist activities” seeking independence for Taiwan, an island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.
中國國家總理李克強上周五向立法機構提交了年度政府工作報告,該報告重申中國政府堅決反對和遏制任何「台獨」分裂行徑。台灣是一個民主島嶼,中國政府稱台灣是其領土的一部分。
- legislature 立法機關
中華民國立法院:Legislative Yuan, Republic of China (Taiwan)
- reiterate 重申
- separatist 分離主義者
- claim 宣稱、斷言、主張
👩🏻 Mr. Li’s address came two days after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen kicked off her second term with a fresh call for Beijing to open dialogue with Taipei in a way that respects what she called Taiwanese sovereignty and democracy—an appeal that China has repeatedly rejected.
台灣總統蔡英文上周三開啟了她的第二個任期,而李克強於上周五發表了上述講話。蔡英文在就職時再次呼籲北京當局尊重她倡導的台灣主權與民主,以尊重的方式與我方展開對話,但中國一直拒絕她這樣的呼籲。
- kick off 開始
✍️ 最早是形容足球的開球,後來變引申為「開始」之意
- term 任期
- open dialogue with… 開啟與…的對話
- sovereignty 主權
- appeal 呼籲,懇求
未完待續...
究竟李克強在報告中說了些什麼呢?
加入文末每日國際選讀計畫,解鎖完整語音導讀版
——
原文連結請看留言
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❓❓多益模擬題❓:
Here, I want to ___ the words "peace, parity, democracy, and ___." We will not accept the Beijing authorities' use of "one country, two systems" to downgrade Taiwan and undermine the cross-strait status quo. We stand fast by this principle.
我要再次重申「和平、對等、民主、對話」這八個字。我們不會接受北京當局,以「一國兩制」矮化台灣,破壞台海的現狀,這是我們堅定不移的原則。
🙋🏻♀️🙋🏼♀️
A. iterate/ diabetes
B. reiterate/ dialogue
C. reiterated/ dialogues
-
【每日商業英文計畫,熱烈招生中!】
華爾街日報訂閱超值方案 📰
專屬 #臉書社團,浩爾 #每日語音導讀
「留言+1」,就送你 #優惠碼 及 #導讀試聽!
dropped by意思 在 無國界·旅行·故事Travel Savvy Facebook 的精選貼文
【義大利·Praiano+Minori】中文在英文之後
“My dear friend, I am writing this post to again show you my appreciation for helping a stranger like me. “
Travel is like life. You make foolish mistakes sometimes. Before I talk about how Gabriel came to our rescue, I’d like to explain how the bus driver sent me on a bus that took us to the top of Ravello hill.
We booked a hotel called E Poi Ravello. So you see how easy it was to mistaken the location of our hotel to be Ravello instead of Minori to which Gabriel (and later his entire family) carried our suitcases.
When we were dropped off at the top of the hill and the bus driver simply refused to communicate with me. I quickly googled the distance from where we were to Minori. It was about 29 minutes by foot. I was warned by a taxi driver that there would be stairs. But I decided to give it a try anyway. It can’t be all stairs.
Nevertheless, I was so wrong and ended up being completely soaking wet like a Chinese saying: “a pathetic dog falling in the river”. I didn’t know how much longer I could last with only my flip-flops on.
The rest is history as Gabriel walked by and asked me if I needed help. I know it was a lot to help and yet I didn’t have the chance to treat Gabriel and his family some drinks. I still feel pretty much mortified.
旅行就像人生一樣,我們都會愚蠢犯錯。我們三人聽從了上一班巴士司機的建議搭上了一班往Ravello的車。下車後發現我們在山頭,旅館在山腳下。如果搭車回去再轉車可能要浪費兩個多小時,所以我決定照著估狗地圖向下走半小時應該會到。
然而分次提著三個箱子走了不到四分之一都是階梯的路,我發現自己錯的離譜。但是心想該不會一路都是樓梯吧?於是硬著頭皮向下走到將近一半時,我已經全身濕透,手腳都有些發抖了。
這時我的救命天使經過,好心地問了一句要不要幫忙提。我說箱子真的很重,這樣不好意思。他所沒關係,他可以幫忙。我欣然接受。沿路聊起天來。
他是個廚師,帶著廚藝四處旅居工作。這次跟家人一起出遊,明天就要離開這裡了。因為旅行的關係他認識了現在的女友,下週就要去見未來的岳父母。聽著他的經歷,不禁令人羨慕。年紀輕輕28歲就已擁有許多經歷。
我們走走停停沿途俯瞰欣賞山谷海灣美景。也許這將會是我此生最難忘的景色之一。我也將永遠記得跟義大利人有多麼難溝通啊!
#西歐國家裡只有義大利西班牙和葡萄牙不太說其他語言
#義大利的生存法則就是沒有法則可言